Top 10 / 20 Golf Betting

ValueSeeker

Each week (time permitting) I will try and post some selections from the main golf tours where I see value (overpriced) in them to place either in the top 10 or top 20.

I will use level stakes at 1 unit per selection to keep it simple.

Be aware not to pay too much attention to the results in this form of betting in the short term.

Feel free to contribute your own but if you are, try and give reasoning.


HB Byron Nelson

1pt Ryan Palmer Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (Extrabet) Texas Native doesn't have a great record here but it's only last year since all 4 rounds will be played on the course in question this weekend. Palmer finished last week with a course record matching -8 so confidence is high and game is obviously on.


BMW PGA

1pt Oliver Wilson Top 10 finish @ 6/1 (general) Wilson hasn't had any real form this season but he has a good record here and tends to thrive on tougher courses and in bigger events. Good value @ 6's.

ValueSeeker

Bets = Lose

Staked: 2pts | Returned: 0pts | Profit: -2pts

ValueSeeker

Crowne Plaza

Top 20 betting: 1pt Tim Petrovic @ 19/4 (extrabet) and 1pt Martin Laird @ 7/1 (Paddypower). Both have just qualified for the Open Championship the other day. Petrovic won the qualifying (in a strong field mind you) and has been on form recently in general. Laird wasn't too far behind and 7/1 is about double the price it should be.

Madrid Open

Top 10 betting: 1pt James Morrison @ 8/1 (Totesport) Won the US open qualifier at Walton Heath on Monday and some fine performances around Spain and Portugal earlier this season. 1pt Rhys Davies @ 9/2 (Extrabet) Not far behind Morrison in the qualifying, Davies has won also on tour this year and looks like he's a class act. 1 of the best putters on tour.

heavyballs

Valueseeker,i'm looking for value but i don't see any ,i think the prices the bookies give for the likes of this bet are a joke
However,i will through 1 in,Heath Slocum @11/4 Top 20,hasn't set the world alight on this course but he's never played with so much confidence,i'm not mad on the price but he's only missed 1 cut all year so he shouldn't be far away

ValueSeeker

I think the 4 bets posted this week are on average about 30% too big a price, win or lose.

I think it's a very exploitable market. You need to look at your results in the long term to know if it is 1 you're good at.

Feel free to record your own results in this thread (use 1unit level stakes like me to keep it simple) and you'll get an idea of how profitable it could be for you.

That goes for anyone else following this thread and don't worry if you clock up a minus, that's normal for most, especially in the short term and it's not a competition

YohanCabeye7

Crowne Plaza: Colonial

Jerry Kelly: 1 pt, top 10 finish, @ 10.5 /1 (Betfair)

Just started doing this too, see how it goes, events already started so won't go into detail. :pac:

ValueSeeker

It's a long time since I've seen a putter as good as Rhys Davies.

This guy is going to be a star.

Back him each way when he's in any kind of form on the European Tour, before the bookmakers realise his talents and stop pricing him at 50's and the likes.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

It's a long time since I've seen a putter as good as Rhys Davies.

This guy is going to be a star.

Back him each way when he's in any kind of form on the European Tour, before the bookmakers realise his talents and stop pricing him at 50's and the likes.

he puts a bit like Ben Crenshaw,similar putter also,i have a similar style,a fair bit inside on the way back,a lot of players try to come srtaight back and through and it's just not natural
He's a great player but do you fancy he'd do a job for us in the ryder cup,i'm not sure

Verance

Great final round from Martin Laird, Valueseeker!

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Crowne Plaza

Top 20 betting: 1pt Tim Petrovic @ 19/4 (extrabet) and 1pt Martin Laird @ 7/1 (Paddypower). Both have just qualified for the Open Championship the other day. Petrovic won the qualifying (in a strong field mind you) and has been on form recently in general. Laird wasn't too far behind and 7/1 is about double the price it should be.

Madrid Open

Top 10 betting: 1pt James Morrison @ 8/1 (Totesport) Won the US open qualifier at Walton Heath on Monday and some fine performances around Spain and Portugal earlier this season. 1pt Rhys Davies @ 9/2 (Extrabet) Not far behind Morrison in the qualifying, Davies has won also on tour this year and looks like he's a class act. 1 of the best putters on tour.

Bet returns: Rhys Davies (5.5pts), Martin Laird (8pts)

ValueSeeker

Thread Stats:

Staked: 6pts | Returned: 13.5pts | Profit: +7.5pts

In_tuition

heavyballs wrote: »

i think the prices the bookies give for the likes of this bet are a joke

You couldn't be further from the truth.

It's the 1 market in golf betting, along with missing the cut/making the cut, that the compilers f*ck up on week in week out.

Just got to be ready/aware of when each firm post up their prices.

heavyballs

In_tuition wrote: »

You couldn't be further from the truth.

It's the 1 market in golf betting, along with missing the cut/making the cut, that the compilers f*ck up on week in week out.

Just got to be ready/aware of when each firm post up their prices.

this is not me trying to have a go ok,but look at the amount of golfers playing each week,the prices are crapp,yes it's great when you pick a winner but in general it's not a market to get too involved in
what's the most you would be prepared to stake on lets say a top 20?
when you have a max stake top 10 or 20 bet i'd like to hear your fancy as i don't think there's much value
will keep a close eye on this thread however,and will be jumping on valueseekers bandwagon after a very good start this week

ValueSeeker

Celtic Manor Wales Open

Lee Slattery Top 20 finish @ 9/2 (Skybet) - Slattery by all accounts was superb last week as he clinched victory on the second European Tour. He can ride the momentum in Wales this week just as Laird did last.

Memorial Tournament

Nick Watney Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (Bet365) - I was hoping for a better price on this but it still represents value. Watney is suited to this course. The long hitters have an advantage here at what is a "second shot course". Fairways are pretty generous and the further you drive it, the easier the approach. Watney tends to thrive on tougher courses and there weren't many tougher than this last year, excluding majors.

ValueSeeker

As usual, 1pt stake on each of the above.

heavyballs

Fancy Richie Ramsey Top 20 at 7/2 with PP 2 point win

In_tuition

Top 20 Finish

Tom Lehman (15/2 Paddy Power) 1pt win

Past champion who has recorded 6 top 25 finishes here thoughout his career. Tied 14th at the recent Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished 2nd in fairways hit and carded an impressive 18 birdies. Lehman made 4 top 25 finishes on the PGA Tour in 2009 and on the Champions Tour in 2010 he has recorded 5 top 10 finishes from six starts including victory at last week's Senior PGA Championship.

Top 10 Finish

Carl Pettersson (8/1 Stan James) 1pt win

Top European (15/2 Stan James) 1pt win

Past champion who finished 1st in sand saves at Colonial last weekend. He's not the most accurate off the tee which is a bit of a gamble this week but considering he is a past winner here, familiar pastures should ease that fear. 9 of his last 14 rounds here were under par. He is an exceptional putter and not without a chance of outright victory this week. Should also be noted for the top european player market.

Top 10 Finish

Lucas Glover (7/1 Skybet) 1pt win

Bounced back to form at the recent Players Championship where he finished 3rd and recorded some excellent statistics. Played in Fort Worth last week after a break and struggled in the opening round but again bounced back in round 2 to shoot 65 and continued that form with a final round 66. His driving accuracy, sand saves and putting were outstanding during his final round last week. He is out of his slump and although this isn't a course where he has great success, with his game coming round he cound force himself into contention this weekend.

Top European

Fredrik Jacobson (15/2 VC) 2pt win

Missed the cut on his last two starts at Memorial but previous to that he shot 3 rounds of 68 in 2007 and finished T-5. In his last 12 competitive rounds on the PGA Tour he has shot under par in each of them. He T-10 at the recent Players Championship and backed that up with an impressive 2nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open. He only made two bogeys in that event. His accuracy statistics from the tee are superb and his ball-striking and putting capabilites are equally impressive

European Tour

Top 10 Finish

Gregory Bourdy (13/2 VC) 2pt win

T-21 in 2008, T-14 in 2007. Bourdy has recorded four top 25 finishes in his last 4 starts. He is putting really well this season and he will be hoping to keep the good vibes going at a course he has played well at in the past

Raphael Jacquelin (7/1 Stan James) 1pt win

3rd in 2008 and had recorded three top 15 finishes in his last five starts. The two-time European Tour winner played great last week in Madrid and you have to think it's only a matter of time until he proves himself on the big stage once again

Thread Total: -9pt

heavyballs

US
Top 20 betting J.Rose @5/2 2 pt win

YohanCabeye7

YohanCabeye7 wrote: »

Crowne Plaza: Colonial

Jerry Kelly: 1 pt, top 10 finish, @ 10.5 /1 (Betfair)

Just started doing this too, see how it goes, events already started so won't go into detail. :pac:

Jerry shot 6 over par on Sunday :pac:...Surprising to say the least after two solid rounds and a 63 had put him in the hunt.

@ the Memorial, Like the picks already stated!! especially Glover who I was thinking of backing @ 80/1 E/W. Undecided as of yet.

Thread Stats:

Staked: 1pts | Returned: 0pts | Profit: -1pts

ValueSeeker

Intuition and HeavyBalls go head to head once again in a battle between Justin Rose and the 2 Swedes. Looks like a good shout by Intuition for the Top European market if Rose messes up but can we keep this thread to what it says in the title please.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Intuition and HeavyBalls go head to head once again in a battle between Justin Rose and the 2 Swedes. Looks like a good shout by Intuition for the Top European market if Rose messes up but can we keep this thread to what it says in the title please.

no contest:D
btw i didn't pick half a dozen or so,1 in each tourney for top 20 betting and Sean o Heir o/r
i also have Rose(win) and Ramsey e/w but i'm not too hopefull tbh

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Celtic Manor Wales Open

Lee Slattery Top 20 finish @ 9/2 (Skybet) - Slattery by all accounts was superb last week as he clinched victory on the second European Tour. He can ride the momentum in Wales this week just as Laird did last.

Memorial Tournament

Nick Watney Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (Bet365) - I was hoping for a better price on this but it still represents value. Watney is suited to this course. The long hitters have an advantage here at what is a "second shot course". Fairways are pretty generous and the further you drive it, the easier the approach. Watney tends to thrive on tougher courses and there weren't many tougher than this last year, excluding majors.

Bets = Lose

heavyballs

heavyballs wrote: »

Fancy Richie Ramsey Top 20 at 7/2 with PP 2 point win

loss,T27

heavyballs

heavyballs wrote: »

US
Top 20 betting J.Rose @5/2 2 pt win

Result:Win

ValueSeeker

Good shout on Rose.

I keep a file for every course on the 2 main tours and here's a line from my notes on Memorial: "Suits players who can hit their approach shots high like Justin Rose".

I completely ignored my own notes as I thought 66's was a bit stingey...

In_tuition

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Good shout on Rose.

I keep a file for every course on the 2 main tours and here's a line from my notes on Memorial: "Suits players who can hit their approach shots high like Justin Rose".

I completely ignored my own notes as I thought 66's was a bit stingey...

Same boat as yourself ValueSeeker.

I selected him for the recent Player's Championship and this one my reasoning:

5 top 25 finishes in 2010 including 3rd at the Honda Classic where he finished 1st in fairways hit and 2nd in putting. Two key attributes this week is the ability to keep the ball on the fairway and putt really well. Rose is regaining his form and you have to think he will win at least one big event soon

He missed the cut in that event for me. Hitting fairways and putting well was always the key to winning this week. Due to his latest missed cut there combined with one here last year I thought the price was way off given the strength of the field. I know he had a couple of really high finishes here but still thought in recent week's that he was on a bit of a slide. Delighted though to see him win.

Incidentally I also had Graeme McDowell in that event too who also won this week - bad timing!

Good pick though to those won done Rose but I'd have been expecting around 125/1.

Poor weekend (scoring wise) for me after things liked quite promising on Thursday and parts of Friday.

Thread Stats: -9pts

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Good shout on Rose.

I keep a file for every course on the 2 main tours and here's a line from my notes on Memorial: "Suits players who can hit their approach shots high like Justin Rose".

I completely ignored my own notes as I thought 66's was a bit stingey...

the way i approach golf betting (most of the time) is to pick out my fancies and back them regardless of price
Rose has said before(last year)that he loves this course,played decent there last year when he was a little in the Doldrums
there's been many times when i've picked 1 out in the past only to go off him because of the price,then he goes on and wins,the price may have been stingy to you,after doing my research last week (always b4 prices come out)i reckoned 80/1 was about right
this week my main bet will be Slocum,i'll be backin him no matter what the price,i'm on a bit of a roll,bound to come a cropper soon,i'm off to the golf shop now to buy myself a pressie then i'm off to the jun scr cup in Edmonstown:DHappy days

ValueSeeker

In hindsight, I made a serious error in backing both Mahan and Watney at around 40's when I'd have gotten over 50% better on Rose.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

In hindsight, I made a serious error in backing both Mahan and Watney at around 40's when I'd have gotten over 50% better on Rose.

might pay to stick with Hunter this week me thinks

ValueSeeker

Thread Stats:

Staked: 8pts | Returned: 13.5pts | Profit: +5.5pts


Estoril Open De Portugal

Venue has changed for this year and I know little about the course except that it's a very short track. The field is terribly weak and a 3 players jump right out at me here at great prices. Those 3 are Bradley Dredge, Thomas Bjorn and Darren Clarke. Dredge is the man I'll back here for a top 10. Finding form once again with a competent performance in Wales followed by qualification for the British Open on Monday. I fancy him to feature strongly this week if he carries on his improving form.

Selection Offering Value - 1pt Bradley Dredge Top 10 @ 3/1 (general)


St. Jude classic
Dreadful first round last week at Memorial for Camillo Villegas but that can be forgiven as he hadn't been too competitive of late. He bounced back though in his last 3 rounds to finish a respectable tied 28th. I fancy him on this type of course and for me Skybet have him over priced currently for a top 10.

Selection offering value - 1pt Camillo Villegas top 10 finish @ 11/4 (Skybet)

In_tuition

Memphis Open

Top 10 Finish

Tim Petrovic 6/1 (bet365) 2pt win

T-5 last weekend at Memorial where he finished 2nd in driving accuracy, 13th in greens hit and 13th in sand saves. In recent Valero Texas Open finished 1st in driving accuracy and 6th in greens hit. Followed that up with similar statistics in the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Impressive stuff and although the putter let him down slightly last week, these greens won't be as fast or treacherous. Missed three cuts in his last four starts here but did finish 2nd in 2002.

Top 10 Finish

David Toms 5/2 (SkyBet) 2pt win

Two-time winner who finished 2nd in 2005 and tied 2nd last year. Toms also finished 3rd in 2007. Out of form in the last 6 week's until he finished an impressive T-13 at the Crowne Plaza Invitational two week's ago

Thread Stats: -9pt In Play: 4pt