Top 10 / 20 Golf Betting

ValueSeeker

There's a lot of serious value in the top 20 betting at the St. Jude this week IMO.

For various reasons, the likes of John Rollins (4/1), Bob Estes (11/2), Brand Snedeker (5/1) and John Merrick a whopping 8/1 just a few of the standout over priced players.

1 of the 4 in to turn a profit and I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen.

Bet: 1pt on each of the 4.

ValueSeeker

Estoril Open Top 10

1pt Andrew Coltart @ 11/1 (William Hill) Very much an outside bet but I've got to take it at 11's. Coming off the back of qualifying for the British Open and has shown signs of old form this year so far. Very weak field, probably even weaker than that of the British Open qualifying where he finished tied 2nd with 2 rounds in the mid 60's.

In_tuition

ValueSeeker wrote: »

There's a lot of serious value in the top 20 betting at the St. Jude this week IMO.

For various reasons, the likes of John Rollins (4/1), Bob Estes (11/2), Brand Snedeker (5/1) and John Merrick a whopping 8/1 just a few of the standout over priced players.

1 of the 4 in to turn a profit and I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen.

Bet: 1pt on each of the 4.

Big follower of Rollins and it didn't take me long to cross him off the list this week. No course form in the last four years. Missed last 3 cuts on tour. Poor from the sand (there's buckets of it this week). Take all this into consideration, I think 4/1 is very, very poor odds.

Good luck.

heavyballs

Top Ten Betting
Euro
Edberg @4/1
S o Hara @ 9/1

US
Slocum @3/1

backed the above 3 o/r also Edberg 50/1 win,o Hara 100/1 e/w

YohanCabeye7

top 20 betting @ the St. Jude

Jordan Spieth @ 8/1 (SKYBET) - stake: 1 pt.

Taking these odds on the "child prodigy" as we may never see such odds again for him. Caution, this event is not particularly suited to his game but a good player none the less, t16th in his only ever PGA start @ HP Byron nelson recently, t8th in his last junior outing and ended with a 68 in his second round on open qualifying on Monday, and narrowly missed out.

GL to all.

ValueSeeker

In_tuition wrote: »

Big follower of Rollins and it didn't take me long to cross him off the list this week. No course form in the last four years. Missed last 3 cuts on tour. Poor from the sand (there's buckets of it this week). Take all this into consideration, I think 4/1 is very, very poor odds.

Good luck.

As far as I'm aware, he hasn't played most (if not all) those last 4 tournaments here.

Taking all variables into account, I'd expect Rollins to finish in the top 20 here, 1/3 times meaning 4/1 is a very good price.

In_tuition

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Taking all variables into account, I'd expect Rollins to finish in the top 20 here, 1/3 times meaning 4/1 is a very good price.

Okay, if you think so.

Good luck with the bet.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

As far as I'm aware, he hasn't played most (if not all) those last 4 tournaments here.

Taking all variables into account, I'd expect Rollins to finish in the top 20 here, 1/3 times meaning 4/1 is a very good price.

i don't know if it's just me but i find it very iritating someone disecting another posters golfers before the comp as if they're some kind of authority on golf
i've seen many dodgy picks on here but i'd prefer to let them ride and say nought,
we all know on any given week almost any golfer in the field is capable of winning,stats and course form don't always translate to wins and good performances
What do you think?

In_tuition

heavyballs wrote: »

i don't know if it's just me

As usual it's just you.

Any remarks I make is an attempt to help someone out. Nothing other.

I did respond outlining exactly why I didn't expect Rollins to achieve anything this week and why the price was wrong but out of respect to my fellow posters and to not stir up any controversy (which you seem quite set on usually and no doubt again here) I deleted it quickly and just wish him well, as you can see above.

That's what I think.

heavyballs

In_tuition wrote: »

As usual it's just you.

Any remarks I make is an attempt to help someone out. Nothing other.

I did respond outlining exactly why I didn't expect Rollins to achieve anything this week and why the price was wrong but out of respect to my fellow posters and to not stir up any controversy (which you seem quite set on usually and no doubt again here) I deleted it quickly and just wish him well, as you can see above.

That's what I think.

you're over reacting as usual,my post was aimed at the other poster,how do you help the poster after he's already obviously placed his bets?
his price was wrong,you also thought last week Rose should have been 125/1 when in fact he was priced up around 66/1,he goes on and wins so the price was about right

ValueSeeker

This post in directed on the subject in general.

No offense to anyone on here and I don't want to come across as some sort of big head but since I've been living off my profits for almost 5 years, noone's opinion is going to influence any of the bets I post on here as I can assure you my homework has been done and my own opinion has proved to be very profitable in the markets I specialise in over that period of time. Mistakes will of course be made along the way as in any aspect of life and calculations are done to compensate for them.

Generally I pay no attention to anyone that disagrees with my bets as it's all about opinions and if all were the same, I couldn't do what I do. Sometimes it's mildly irritating if they persist but I find it more amusing than anything else.

As usual, I'll let my long term results do the talking. Believe me, doing what I've been doing, you'll get all sorts of begrudgers etc along the way and I've long since learned to ignore it and I have the results and am confident enough in my own ability not to let it bother me.

1 thing I do ask though is that you all respect eachother and please don't turn this thread into a trainwreck like the last 1. In this form of betting it's VERY much a longterm thing and it's very easy to go on a long run with no returns so anyone following tips, make sure you are aware of this and please stick to small level stakes.

ValueSeeker

heavyballs wrote: »

you're over reacting as usual,my post was aimed at the other poster,how do you help the poster after he's already obviously placed his bets?
his price was wrong,you also thought last week Rose should have been 125/1 when in fact he was priced up around 66/1,he goes on and wins so the price was about right

Rollins was my pick. That reply was in response to Intuition's comments on it. And no matter how he performs this weekend, it won't change my opinion, I'd still think he would be about 30-35% to get a top 20 if all factors were the same as this week.

And that is what betting for value is all about. It's how you look at it as investing rather than 'gambling'.

The Recliner

heavyballs wrote: »

i don't know if it's just me but i find it very iritating someone disecting another posters golfers before the comp as if they're some kind of authority on golf
i've seen many dodgy picks on here but i'd prefer to let them ride and say nought,
we all know on any given week almost any golfer in the field is capable of winning,stats and course form don't always translate to wins and good performances
What do you think?

In_tuition wrote: »

As usual it's just you.

Any remarks I make is an attempt to help someone out. Nothing other.

I did respond outlining exactly why I didn't expect Rollins to achieve anything this week and why the price was wrong but out of respect to my fellow posters and to not stir up any controversy (which you seem quite set on usually and no doubt again here) I deleted it quickly and just wish him well, as you can see above.

That's what I think.

Lads can you quit the sniping

This is a discussion forum, if people want to talk about picks they should, as with people posting their picks no-one has to take their advice but it is always good to know the rational behind them

In_tuition

heavyballs wrote: »

you also thought last week Rose should have been 125/1 when in fact he was priced up around 66/1,he goes on and wins so the price was about right

Lol.

I said that after the event .
Off the radar as usual big man.

No mention of me saying Watney will struggle badly to help a fellow poster out? which he did.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Rollins was my pick. That reply was in response to Intuition's comments on it.

yeah i know,read your other post,i for 1 don't see the point in dissing anyone's bets before the tourney so i won't be doing that and i also won't get into a bitchfest on this thread as i'm interested long term to see how you do on it

In_tuition

ValueSeeker wrote: »

This post in directed on the subject in general.

No offense to anyone on here and I don't want to come across as some sort of big head but since I've been living off my profits for almost 5 years, noone's opinion is going to influence any of the bets I post on here as I can assure you my homework has been done and my own opinion has proved to be very profitable in the markets I specialise in over that period of time. Mistakes will of course be made along the way as in any aspect of life and calculations are done to compensate for them.

Generally I pay no attention to anyone that disagrees with my bets as it's all about opinions and if all were the same, I couldn't do what I do. Sometimes it's mildly irritating if they persist but I find it more amusing than anything else.

As usual, I'll let my long term results do the talking. Believe me, doing what I've been doing, you'll get all sorts of begrudgers etc along the way and I've long since learned to ignore it and I have the results and am confident enough in my own ability not to let it bother me.

1 thing I do ask though is that you all respect eachother and please don't turn this thread into a trainwreck like the last 1. In this form of betting it's VERY much a longterm thing and it's very easy to go on a long run with no returns so anyone following tips, make sure you are aware of this and please stick to small level stakes.

Is it nice being homeless? (Sorry couldn't resist)

In_tuition

If you don't take other peoples advice on board then you'll never improve even further.

Same with all aspects of life and not just gambling. As much as one person thinks they know there is always someone out there with a little more knowledge in a different department and talking with people like that only improves you.

Just my tuppence worth from personal experience, throw it back in my face all you wish.

ValueSeeker

In_tuition wrote: »

No mention of me saying Watney will struggle badly to help a fellow poster out? which he did.

Don't flatter yourself. This is golf and anything can happen in any given tournament. The fact that he happened to struggle on that occasion doesn't mean you were right. I'm surprised you don't realise this to be honest.

In_tuition

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Don't flatter yourself. This is golf and anything can happen in any given tournament. The fact that he happened to struggle on that occasion doesn't mean you were right. I'm surprised you don't realise this to be honest.

Oh I see.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Don't flatter yourself. This is golf and anything can happen in any given tournament. The fact that he happened to struggle on that occasion doesn't mean you were right. I'm surprised you don't realise this to be honest.

i tried to explain this to in tuition before,the way i look at golf betting is there's a huge amount of luck involved,golfers arn't robots,they go to the course 1 day and they find their swing straight away,other days it just doesn't happen
too many variables imo to predict what's going to happen on a given day,never mind a given week

ValueSeeker

Things very much in the balance at the moment.

Coltart and Dredge right on the line (T9) as are Estes(T15) and Snedeker(T20) for me in America.

Petrovic the same story for Intuition with 1 or 2 shots to spare.

Here's hoping they all consilidate their position.

Rollins and Villegas will need to shoot good last rounds for me.

heavyballs

Slocum should do the business for me,who do u fancy v.s,reckon Garrigus might hang on just about for a Top 10 finish

ValueSeeker

Yeah good shout on slocum and good shout on Green. Dredge is capitulating. He was -14 late on yesterday.

Coltart at 11/1 would be nice for me if he shoots a reasonable round.

I reckon maybe Westwood might sneak through today. I might have a bet on him if his odds are decent.

heavyballs

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Yeah good shout on slocum and good shout on Green. Dredge is capitulating. He was -14 late on yesterday.

Coltart at 11/1 would be nice for me if he shoots a reasonable round.

I reckon maybe Westwood might sneak through today. I might have a bet on him if his odds are decent.

if Green grew a pair of balls he might win a tourney,game over now

ValueSeeker

Coltart - 3 bogeys in 68 holes and 2 shots to spare for a top 10 with 4 holes to play. Throws in 2 triple bogeys to finish! I shouldn't be laughing as it would have been a lot of money for me but I can't help but laugh at that!:D

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Thread Stats:

Staked: 8pts | Returned: 13.5pts | Profit: +5.5pts


Estoril Open De Portugal

Venue has changed for this year and I know little about the course except that it's a very short track. The field is terribly weak and a 3 players jump right out at me here at great prices. Those 3 are Bradley Dredge, Thomas Bjorn and Darren Clarke. Dredge is the man I'll back here for a top 10. Finding form once again with a competent performance in Wales followed by qualification for the British Open on Monday. I fancy him to feature strongly this week if he carries on his improving form.

Selection Offering Value - 1pt Bradley Dredge Top 10 @ 3/1 (general)

Bet = lose

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Estoril Open Top 10

1pt Andrew Coltart @ 11/1 (William Hill) Very much an outside bet but I've got to take it at 11's. Coming off the back of qualifying for the British Open and has shown signs of old form this year so far. Very weak field, probably even weaker than that of the British Open qualifying where he finished tied 2nd with 2 rounds in the mid 60's.

Bet = lose

Verance

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Coltart - 3 bogeys in 68 holes and 2 shots to spare for a top 10 with 4 holes to play. Throws in 2 triple bogeys to finish! I shouldn't be laughing as it would have been a lot of money for me but I can't help but laugh at that!:D

That was ridiculous :mad: Dredge +5 for the day too, was it? Still going well in America though!

ValueSeeker

Yeah if the tournaments finished yesterday, most of them would have come in!

There was some serious wind in Portugal today towards the end of the round, that's what happened Coltart - par 3 with water and +30mph wind

heavyballs

golf betting in particular can be really f.in frustrating at times,r u on Westy or what,fancied him myself but thought i'd leave all my eggs in the 1 basket with Slocum and he makes a balls of the last few holes