June 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

For the bonus question(s) the results were:

max temp 16.0 C

rainfall 13.9 mm

Clairvoyance duly noted on some of the forecasts.

Closest to the temp were:

Kindred Spirit 16.0
Nilhg 15.9
Danno & MTC 16.1
Seafields 16.8
Redsunset 17.0
DOCARCH 14.9
Joe Public 17.9

Closest to the rainfall were:

Danno 14.4
Nilhg 10.8
Nacho libre 10.0
Joe Public 9.0
Strasser 8.0
Kindred Spirit 8.0
DOCARCH 4.8
MTC 4.0

I will figure out the scoring based on highest rank combined but anyone who did well on one and not the other will get at least 4/10. Looks like Danno, Nilhg and KS had the best combined forecasts, so well done there.

I gather that most of this rain fell between 0100 and 1100 because I didn't see much of it in the later hourlies.

Rebelbrowser

pauldry wrote: »

Also very little rain so far in Connaught and Ulster, Quite a bit more in Leinster and Munster.

Tomorrow looks like a stack of rain in Cork for the bonus question and temperatures will be in the mid teens at best so there will be quite a few disappointed people there... myself included.:(

None as disappointed as yours truly who spent 4 hrs running in driving wind and gales! T'was horrific stuff.......

pauldry

Well done rebel. I did the dublin one last year, a truly fulfilling experience. Cork must be hard with all those hills. At least it wasnt as hot as last year.

Back to topic I think the mean is currently at 14.8c or 14.9c for the 5 Stations (name expiring soon) which is very mild for june and despite some average temperatures for the rest of this week, next week looks warmer than average so these values should hold and then it is hard to change them unless there is an extreme bout of cold or heat.

Rainfall has already passed 50% of the monthly average over the East and South but the North and West are having a mini-drought still as a lot of counties miss this rain. Rainfall is only about 10% or less especially in the Northwest and parts of the Extreme North.

So if June is as warm as July does that mean July will be warmer still? Unfortunately thats not how Irelands weather works but we can hope.

Deep Easterly

Not used as part of the competition, but interesting stats regarding rainfall distribution across the 5 Station Mean zone so far this year. Up to midnight 7th June 2010, the year is proving to be a dry or even very dry one across the area. Here is how the % of avearge (from Jan 1st on each point) rainfall looks in chart form when the 5 station totals are combined:



The year has remained below average through so far, with the 5 station % rainfall up to the present standing at just 82%.

This combined average % chart hides the quite bizarre and uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the central zone so far this year. Here are the rainfall totals for each of the 5 met eireann stations used:




Hard to believe, but Oak Park, normally one the driest stations in the country, has the highest rainfall total in central Ireland so far in 2010 :eek::eek::eek:. To say it has the 'highest total' is pretty strange since Oak Park's rainfall count so far this year is actually close to normal. While Claremorris, normally one of the wettest inland stations at any given time, is now proving to be one of the driest, at least in percentage terms:



All the 5 stations, with the exception of Oak Park, are running significantly below average this year regarding rainfall totals. Hard to believe that as much rain fell in November 2009 alone as has done for the entire year so far at some stations :eek:, and that is saying something, since we are now becoming well established in the 6th month of the year... the half way mark!!! :eek::eek:



All data C/O Met Eireann

pauldry

Thanks for those stats DE. and :eek::eek::eek: indeedy!

Second half of year in Ireland is normally significantly wetter than first half so I guess we'll "catch up"

Deep Easterly

Current combined mean value of our 5 met stations standing at 14.4c, which is around 1.5c above the 61-90 norm for the first 12 days of the month. In chart form:





Annual mean currently on 6.59c, which is 0.6c below normal.


Graph charting mean daily maxima values for June at stations Birr, Pheonix Park & UCG Galway:


(Galway Data based on 66-95 daily average)

Faily gradual but steady rise from start to finish.



Outlook chart for the coming mid week period:



Ridge building over Ireland from the west as pressure falls a little both to the the NW and to the SE, resulting in further storms over parts of the continent but fair to fine weather over Ireland. Gradually becoming warmer as the week progresses, with just the very slight possiblity of a isolated shower being triggered off at times. Temps likely to remain above average throughout.



Data Source: Met Eireann

pauldry

No action on this thread in a while

Avg Temperature is near the mid 14s and rising slowly

Rainfall well below normal in the West and about 50% to 60% normal in East

Sunshine - I dont know. Actually does anyone hv any good websites that tell you how much Sunshine theres been in the month? Think its about Nornal or above in the East.

The High temperature for June so far has been around 23c but next week has some potential - maybe

The low temperature - 4.8c in Claremorris?

These arent the hard facts but just thought Id update thread maybe DE or MT willl provide the FACTS

nacho libre

a temperature of -4.8 recorded in Claremorris?? did you mean + 4.8?

pauldry

sorry nacho, thats a dash not a minus, i must be more careful with my punctuation in future or ill start another big freeze!:rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

The low temperature - 4.8c in Claremorris?

4.6c on the 2nd, although in general, mean minima is running between 1c & 2c above normal for June so far across the country.

pauldry

Deep Easterly wrote: »

4.6c on the 2nd, although in general, mean minima is running between 1c & 2c above normal for June so far across the country.

The 4.6c is under threat tonight or tomorrow night especially.

M.T. Cranium

Someone may follow up with a more precise number, but preparing for forecast time, I notice Gurteen at 3 C at 0500h (04z) Sunday.

The low was officially 2.6 C.

Deep Easterly

Up to the 19th, the June combined mean of our 5 met eireann stations is standing at 14.4c, which is around 1.3c above average the 61-90 average for the 2nd third of the month.

Bar chart showing mean maxima for each of the stations used for the period so far, with values for 2009 for the same period:





Onto the annual mean, and as of the 19th June, the current 2010 value is on 6.91c, which equates to 0.5c below average, but rising all the time.


Monthly M.S.L.P deviational values in chart form for Mailin Head, coveing the 12 month period June 2009 to June 2010:



(Deviational value for June 2010 only covers the period 1st to 19th)

12 month anomally value for the station standing at 0.11 hPa


Outlook chart for the coming mid-week period:




Current blocking ridge expected to weaken a little as it is pushed to the east, allowing in a more SW stream over Ireland. A mixture of cloud and spells of watery sunshine is forecast for the coming week with the occasional flirt with weak weather trough that may bring some showery type rain at times. Breezy at times by day, more especially in the NW but daytime temps remaining close to or above normal throughout.

Faint signals that heavier rain will threaten Ireland, esp the south, towards the weekend but the latest model runs seem to be very uncertain as to the tracking of this second low at this stage. M.T will keep us all up to date on this in his Forecast thread.


Data sources:
Met Eireann / University of Reading / Meteo.si

M.T. Cranium

Apologies for not keeping this month's contest updated, I have had quite a lot of distractions outside the weather field this month. My impression is that the rainfall is sitting around 60% and sunshine must be up around 120% -- but those are only subjective impressions bolstered by a quick look at some totals to date.

I was wondering if anyone could recommend an event in July, preferably on the second weekend (10-11) for the July contest bonus question?

Thanks in advance (I hope) ... MTC

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Apologies for not keeping this month's contest updated, I have had quite a lot of distractions outside the weather field this month. My impression is that the rainfall is sitting around 60% and sunshine must be up around 120% -- but those are only subjective impressions bolstered by a quick look at some totals to date.

I was wondering if anyone could recommend an event in July, preferably on the second weekend (10-11) for the July contest bonus question?

Thanks in advance (I hope) ... MTC

We could go mad and predict the temp in Johannesburg for world cup final Munster hurling final is also on same day, wonder what nearest station to Thurles is? Easiest to do is probably Leinster football final in Dublin.
All are on Sunday 11th.

pauldry

Well I is going on vacation from June 26th so hope I can get my entry in by then.

Max temp in Ireland on WC Final Day??

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

We could go mad and predict the temp in Johannesburg for world cup final Munster hurling final is also on same day, wonder what nearest station to Thurles is? Easiest to do is probably Leinster football final in Dublin.
All are on Sunday 11th.

Yes, it is about time a station from Munster/Leinster was picked out!


Can't think of any day with a special importance or significance, although isn't every day a special one in itself?

Speak Now

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Yes, it is about time a station from Munster/Leinster was picked out!


Can't think of any day with a special importance or significance, although isn't every day a special one in itself?

How about Connacht Senior Football Final on July 18th

pauldry

Does nothing happen but GAA??

Hmmmm, guess not.

Yeah one of those suggestions above will be good. DOes anyone think that June is going to get a flaming temperature b4 the end?

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

Does nothing happen but GAA??

Hmmmm, guess not.

Blasphemy! How dare you speak with such blatant impiety! :mad:


:pac:

Regarding the mean temp, it has been hovering in or around 14.4c for the last 10 days or so, but from this early stage, I reckon it will finish around, or possibly over, 15.0c.

pauldry

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Blasphemy! How dare you speak with such blatant impiety! :mad:


:pac:

Regarding the mean temp, it has been hovering in or around 14.4c for the last 10 days or so, but from this early stage, I reckon it will finish around, or possibly over, 15.0c.

I like GAA as much as the next person but what about Oxegen weather or somethin like that?

Wheres the nearest station to Punch?

Regarding avg temp of over 15c all i can say is wow! I predicted 13.8c and I thought I was being generous. I expected a lot more rain too though some thundery bursts may bring up the totals yet.

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Does nothing happen but GAA??

Hmmmm, guess not.

Yeah one of those suggestions above will be good. DOes anyone think that June is going to get a flaming temperature b4 the end?

The national marathon canoeing championships are on in Leixlip on that weekend. Are strongly affected by wind, maybe max gust ???!!!

Theres something thats not GAA . . .

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

I like GAA as much as the next person but what about Oxegen weather or somethin like that?

Wheres the nearest station to Punch?

I go further and ask do we need an event to set a date & parameter? They all seem to involve sport which personally I couldn't give a toss about. I realise I may be on my own on this!

John mac

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I realise I may be on my own on this!

No you're not.

Lumi

St. Swithin's Day is on July 15th - if it rains on that day it's supposed to rain for the next 40 days in succession.
Could we base something around that?

Speak Now

Fionagus wrote: »

St. Swithin's Day is on July 15th - if it rains on that day it's supposed to rain for the next 40 days in succession.
Could we base something around that?

Good idea!

pauldry

Hear Hear!

Should be weather event related days

St Swithins is the best idea so far.

Speak Now

pauldry wrote: »

Hear Hear!

Should be weather event related days

St Swithins is the best idea so far.

Every day is a weather related event

John mac

Fionagus wrote: »

St. Swithin's Day is on July 15th - if it rains on that day it's supposed to rain for the next 40 days in succession.
Could we base something around that?

+1

M.T. Cranium

Okay, thanks for the suggestions, I will think about a question relating to the 15th then. Will post the July contest later today for those who may be on holiday soon.