June 2010 Boards forecast contest

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

St. Swithin's Day is on July 15th - if it rains on that day it's supposed to rain for the next 40 days in succession.
Could we base something around that?

Great suggestion!!

pauldry

Hi guys,

Im off on vacation now so not sure how often Ill be online. 2moro maybe a bit.

Anyways MT heres a rough July Forecast Competition guess for this coming month.
MEAN 14.9c MAX 26.1c MIN 5.2c RAIN% 125 SUN% 110 AND RAIN 15TH 7mm(whereever)/TEMP 15TH 19.1c(if neither of these ill accept zero marks for this category)

Bye guys.

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Hi guys,

Im off on vacation now so not sure how often Ill be online. 2moro maybe a bit.

Anyways MT heres a rough July Forecast Competition guess for this coming month.
MEAN 14.9c MAX 26.1c MIN 5.2c RAIN% 125 SUN% 110 AND RAIN 15TH 7mm(whereever)/TEMP 15TH 19.1c(if neither of these ill accept zero marks for this category)

Bye guys.

The july thread is open since yesterday.

Deep Easterly

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]5 met eireann station mean so far for June up to 14.8c, around 1.6c above normal for the month so far.

Chart monitoring mean max for the year so far, with 2009 included for comparison:



current year's value on 11.5c, which is 0.6c cooler than at this stage last year, but closer to the 61-90 norm than was the 2009 figure.



How is the combined annual mean for the same stations doing I hear you cry? Well, 'tis currently on 7.27c, which is 0.4c below normal, but continues to close in nicely towards normal. :)


Graph chart showing combined % of normal rainfall for the 5 stations up to midnight last:



Rainfall for the year only around 80% of normal across the 5 met station zone, with Claremorris value continuing to fall with current % value being 60%. Oak Park's value however, continues to hover around normal.



Outlook chart for the coming mid-week period:




Ireland lying in a transient col[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] between a weak ridge to the south and an activating low pressure system to the west which is a pretty average set up for the time of year. Weatherwise, this coming week looks to be more unsettled that previous [/FONT]months [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]weeks the chance of some rain at times. Winds not likely to be a significant feature although could be blustery at times near any trough zones. Daytime temps likely to be around normal for the time of year, although night time values are likely to remain above.

M.T as usual will have all the essential details in the Forecast thread thoughout the week.


Thank you long time.

[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]

[/FONT]





Data Source: met eireann

Deep Easterly

OK, 'final' June mean is a very dodgy 15.1c, or to break it down further, 15.05c. The problem is that Mullingar data from the 29th has yet to be updated, I have a feeling that it would bring down the real final figure to 15.0c, as the mean of the other 4 stations worked out at 15.0c exactly on the 29th.

I think we will have to wait until this data for Mullingar is released to be anyway sure.

Anyways. Both mean max and mean min within the 5 met station zone finished above average. Mean max at 2.1c above, while mean minima worked out at 1.4c above. While a warm month, it was notable for the lack of any intense heat; more notable for a sustained moderate warmth.

thetonynator

Have a feeling this will be a disaterous month for me. Definately knocked off first place. :mad:

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

OK, 'final' June mean is a very dodgy 15.1c, or to break it down further, 15.05c. The problem is that Mullingar data from the 29th has yet to be updated, I have a feeling that it would bring down the real final figure to 15.0c, as the mean of the other 4 stations worked out at 15.0c exactly on the 29th.

I think we will have to wait until this data for Mullingar is released to be anyway sure.

Anyways. Both mean max and mean min within the 5 met station zone finished above average. Mean max at 2.1c above, while mean minima worked out at 1.4c above. While a warm month, it was notable for the lack of any intense heat; more notable for a sustained moderate warmth.

Mullingar updated, and to my surprise, the final mean is now a certain 15.1c. I thought that it would actually drop the 15.05c by 0.01c, but nope, actually rose it by 0.01c!

Congrats to seafiedls, John Mac and Talkabout who guessed the final June mean correctly!

Speak Now

Anyone know what the min and max for the month was?
Seriously need a boost after my miserable mean prediction again :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

Yes, looks like a vast panorama of carnage for many ... will the min scoring rules be wheeled in? (I am much more flexible than FIFA, anyway) ...

Here are the rest of the validating figures:

Highest for month 24.9°C at Ballyhaise on 21st (pretty modest for a warm June)
Lowest for month 2.6°C at Gurteen on 20th (odd that this would come near the shortest night of the year)

Rainfall (at 11 reporting stations) 65% of normal (Valentia's last gasp downpour probably brought this up from near 60%, got them above average)
Sunshine 123% of normal (that was a fairly constant theme)

Scoring will be announced later in the annual scoring thread. I shall get this out of the way as I'm into holiday mode and the weather is set to improve from current passing showers, so might as well kill off the lunch hour and get 'er done ... so look for ye olde scores about 8 pm your time and first beer of the day my time.

thetonynator

on kilkenny weather, kilkenny has been recorded as having a much wetter than average june, mainly due to torrential showers, ( very localised) on 8th june. 70mm total for the month.

Joe Public

thetonynator wrote: »

Have a feeling this will be a disaterous month for me. Definately knocked off first place. :mad:

It's a bit like golf, you are off the tee box for now:)

Redsunset

I think at the end of each month we can add Met Eireann Analysis just to look back on.




http://www.met.ie/metadmin/useruploads/file/jun10sum.pdf




June was another dry month at almost all stations, continuing a spell of relatively dry weather everywhere since the beginning of 2010. Six-month totals for the year so far are around 75% of normal generally, with only 63% of normal for the period measured at Claremorris. June, like the previous months of this year, was also sunnier than normal everywhere, while most days were warm.

High pressure was the dominant influence over Ireland during much of the month, bringing dry and sunny weather on most days. Monthly rainfall totals were around half of normal in western and northern areas and it was the driest June since 1941 at Malin Head. There was a total of between five and 10 wetdays (days with 1mm or more rainfall), compared with the normal range for June of nine to 13. Little or no rain was measured between the 14th and 27th, with most rain falling in the periods 6th/7th and on the 28th and 30th.

Mean monthly air temperatures were between one and two degrees higher than normal and it was the warmest June for 40 years at both Mullingar and Cork Airport. Mean maximum temperatures were over two degrees above normal at some stations; the period between the 20th and 27th was particularly warm, when daily maximum values rose above 20°C in most areas. Minimum temperatures fell below average around mid-month, with slight ground frost recorded on both the 15th and 19th.

Sunshine totals were above normal for the sixth successive month and were again well above normal in the southwest. Valentia Observatory’s sunshine total for the year so far of 1034 hours represents just over 150% of normal for the six-month period, by far the sunniest such period in over a century of sunshine records at the station. The sunniest days this month were close to the summer solstice, with around 16 hours of daily sunshine in places between the 19th and 21st.