Hurricanes

maquiladora

snowstreams wrote: »

Looks like Bonnie will follow a very similar path that Alex took. This could cause some serious flooding.

Not sure if it will ever become Bonnie, there's a fair chance it will stay below TS strength.

snowstreams

It looks like Bonnie wont appear this time alright. This depression seems to be weakening already, even before it hits land.
Will it still bring flooding for that region I wonder.

maquiladora

Keeping an eye on Invest 97.

forkassed

Theres some good looking storms coming off the African coast.

maquiladora

Invest 97 now 30% chance of becoming a TC within 48 hours.



Edit - now 40% chance.

maquiladora

Invest 97 is getting it's act together :

THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Su Campu

We could have Bonnie later today, and Colin maybe tomorrow.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

maquiladora

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Redsunset

maquiladora

We could have our next named storm within the next couple of days with some of the models developing 91L into a landfalling hurricane.

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

We could have our next named storm within the next couple of days with some of the models developing 91L into a landfalling hurricane.

What are we on at the moment??? did colin ever materialise?

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

What are we on at the moment??? did colin ever materialise?

Colin will be the next named storm. NHC says 60% chance of a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. It's August now so the season will be starting to get more active.

Iancar29

Ye , i agree, id say Colin is gonna come alive very soon indeed!

Its a descent cloud cluster at the moment!

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ye , i agree, id say Colin is gonna come alive very soon indeed!

Its a descent cloud cluster at the moment!

Looks like we may well have a TD within hours not days :

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Su Campu

This is the season kicking into action in ernest, according to Joe

maquiladora

That invest is now at 90%, could be called td at any time now.

Joe Public

Hurricane Alex was finally put to rest today - RIP

Su Campu

Yes RIP Alex.

As one departs, another one is born. Colin has just been named.

000 WTNT44
KNHC 030831
TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL042010 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED BAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 285/20. AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLY JET. THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR LESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT ALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT FORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE WIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND FIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.0N 47.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W 50 KT

$$ FORECASTER PASCH

maquiladora

Invest 94 appeared out of nowhere just off Florida, if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico it could develop to a depression or named storm in a few days.




2. A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

maquiladora

Invest 94 :

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA IS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH UPPER-AIR...DOPPLER RADAR...AND SATELLITE INFORMATION...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Su Campu

ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

The GFS musters up this tropical storm with 55 knot winds by Saturday, which moves northeastwards towards Ireland. It originates in a slack surface trough that today lies to the northeast of the leeward islands, by Tuesday it's just a few hundred miles to our southwest but still hasn't undergone full extratropical transition. It then gets picked up by a deep upper trough, and by Wednesday it's producing extremely heavy rain off our west coast.

It's highly unlikely that things will pan out exactly as above, but the UKMO has a similar outlook, unlike the ECMWF, which doesn't feature this system at all. But one to watch

Situation at 12Z today



Saturday morning


55knot surface winds


By tuesday, still some signs of tropical characteristics remain



Wednesday, heavy rain to our west

Su Campu

A good chance of Tropical Storm Earl forming in the east Atlantic over the next 48hrs.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

A good chance of Tropical Storm Earl forming in the east Atlantic over the next 48hrs.

We haven't had a D storm yet.

The latest GFS shows the remains of that storm heading our direction. Deep Easterly might get his storm if he is lucky :pac:

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

We haven't had a D storm yet.


The latest GFS shows the remains of that storm heading our direction. Deep Easterly might get his storm if he is lucky

Oops, you're right. Deep, Danielle might be coming to visit next week - please make her feel welcome!!!

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

please make her feel welcome!!!

I shall, but only if she pleases me, which at this early stage does not seem likely.

Come on Danielle, show me what you got girl.

WolfeIRE

there certainly will be heavy rain looking at the latest GFS for Wednesday night and thursday. Winds will be strong to gale force SW later swinging westerly and then NW by Saturday. Looks like a horrible second half to the week. temps will also be 14-17c at best during the day mid week. these will fall to 12-15c by next weekend. Autumn has arrived

Deep Easterly

OK, with M.T, Su, Maq and now WolfIRE on board, my hopes are building a little for next week's event. Latest model runs seem positive as well:



That one chart looks to be pretty much like a repeat of last thursday's/yesterday's event with a slack trough extending over Ireland from the parent low which in effect has the power to sharpen any frontal zones that may be contained in its vicinity. Worth keeping an eye on for sure, but with an eyebrow raised of course.

WolfeIRE

Models suggest that the low centre will pass over the Mid west and move NE on Friday morn.

4 different outputs

maquiladora

The charts I posted earlier from the 0Z GFS were showing the remains of a TS/hurricane coming close to us much later in the run, thats not the same 'event' that WolfeIRE and DE has posted above.

Just looked at the precip on the 06Z GFS for next Wed/Thur/Friday....

Would you like fries with that flooding?

km79

how bad is it lokking and how likely is it to come off ?