Hurricanes

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

how bad is it lokking and how likely is it to come off ?

It probably won't end up being that bad at all. :pac:

The weather models change all the time out beyond a few days.

km79

when is next model out?? few websites hve 60 mm of rain weds evening/ thurs morning:eek:

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

when is next model out?? few websites hve 60 mm of rain weds evening/ thurs morning:eek:

Its just finished rolling out.

Windy around the coasts but not stormy :



Wet, wet, wet :



This is the wrong kind of thread for this anyway since this is just an Atlantic low and isn't an ex-hurricane or anything.

The ex-hurricane that showed up on earlier GFS runs coming close to us is now heading to Greenland on the 12Z run. :rolleyes:

All subject to change of course.

km79

so how wet? sorry dont understand charts:)

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

so how wet? sorry dont understand charts:)

Hard to forecast exact precip that far out. Probably fairly heavy rain for most parts.

Redsunset

Very far away still but promising.

M.T. Cranium

Just to clarify, TD #6 has just been designated and will probably become Danielle next 24 hours, turn into a hurricane and move generally speaking towards the northwest ending up possibly somewhere near Bermuda in about five days' time. Some models suggest it will recurve towards Iceland and others have it hanging around east of New England trying to work north. Of course there is some chance that it will take a track further south and end up much closer to the U.S. than current forecasts indicate.

Meanwhile the low being discussed for Ireland on Thursday is now forming up east of Nova Scotia and if accurately predicted would likely not acquire any tropical characteristics although if it tracked far enough south of 40N it is conceivable -- and the same goes for its trailing secondary that is shown as a rather strong low near the Azores around Friday. That one could attract the NHC's interest even though its evolution looks like a bog-standard low.

Got to keep in mind, there are marginal and hybrid cases in the naming game and sometimes the decision is based more on public awareness than strict rules of formation, so I would not rule out names or numbers for any storms that appear anywhere south of 40N in the Atlantic (also there's the factor of verifying the high seasonal forecast :cool: ) ... but I give this about 10% chance of acquiring any names from NHC and the trailing secondary about 30% chance. They are both systems to be watched for Ireland, the UK and France over the period Thursday to Sunday.

I rather doubt that Danielle will come much closer to Ireland (eventually) than western Iceland but we'll have to keep an eye on that potential in about a week -- could be the first major hurricane of the year for some part of the N Atlantic however.

maquiladora

Wave that came off Africa is now 96L and could be the "E" storm. One to watch.

maquiladora

18Z GFS is a hurricane train for the US East Coast :eek:

maquiladora

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

Timistry

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS is a hurricane train for the US East Coast :eek:

Thats just epic! Makes you realise how boring the weather has been of late The GFS is in major ramp mode again

Lumi

Joe Bastardi on Danielle, Earl, Fiona etc...
http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/danielle-earl-fiona-to-be-and-future-draft-choices.asp?channel=national

WolfeIRE

CNN
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/08/26/hurricanes.danielle.earl/index.html#fbid=HNPJES9blc8&wom=false
A hurricane and a tropical storm spun through the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday morning, and were expected to gain strength, but neither posed an immediate threat to land, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. update. Hurricane Danielle, currently a Category 2 system with sustained winds of 105 mph, is expected to intensify and could become a "major" Category 3 hurricane later Thursday or Friday, the hurricane center said

maquiladora

Along with Danielle and Earl we now have Invest 97, which has a good chance of later becoming Fiona. Hurricane season really picking up now.

19VanD87

Just had a look at stormpulse.com and its predicting the remains of danielle
to head straight at ireland next week could change i suppose but would
be great to get a good storm this year

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

Su Campu

Here's a very interesting video on the latest activity, with plenty of explanations of the forecasting conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/90659509001/danielle-almost-a-cat-3-earl-.asp

thetonynator

hurrican season is picking up, but is it normal that the majority of them are just fading off out at sea, or else fizzling out before they hit land . . ???

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

hurrican season is picking up, but is it normal that the majority of them are just fading off out at sea, or else fizzling out before they hit land . . ???

Yep. The majority of these Cape Verde type storms curve back out to sea and are just fish storms. Its the minority that make it all the way over the Atlantic and make landfall.

Su Campu

Interesting piece of trivia for ya! :eek:

Subject: D7) How much energy does a hurricane release? Contributed by Chris Landsea
Hurricanes can be thought of, to a first approximation, as a heat engine; obtaining its heat input from the warm, humid air over the tropical ocean, and releasing this heat through the condensation of water vapor into water droplets in deep thunderstorms of the eyewall and rainbands, then giving off a cold exhaust in the upper levels of the troposphere (~12 km/8 mi up).
One can look at the energetics of a hurricane in two ways:

1. the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets or ...
2. the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong swirling winds of the hurricane (Emanuel 1999).

It turns out that the vast majority of the heat released in the condensation process is used to cause rising motions in the thunderstorms and only a small portion drives the storm's horizontal winds.

• Method 1) - Total energy released through cloud/rain formation: An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). (More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands.) Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 10^16 cm3/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives
  5.2 x 10^19 Joules/day or
  6.0 x 10^14 Watts.
  This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity - an incredible amount of energy produced!
• Method 2) - Total kinetic energy (wind energy) generated: For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane's center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
  
  1.3 x 10^17 Joules/day or
  1.5 x 10^12Watts.
  This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity - also an amazing amount of energy being produced!

Either method is an enormous amount energy being generated by hurricanes. However, one can see that the amount of energy released in a hurricane (by creating clouds/rain) that actually goes to maintaining the hurricane's spiraling winds is a huge ratio of 400 to 1.

forkassed

Euro at 240hrs has a major hurricane headed to Florida

I think this is Invest 97L at the moment

Su Campu

Boy that's some storm in mid Atlantic, just north of the Azores. Latest ASCAT winds are up to 50kt, and the CMA CGM Esperanza ship near Ilha do Corvo reported sustained winds of 52kts at 21Z last night.



Even ESTOFEX gave it a mention in yesterday's forecast, despite it being out of their territory.

As a side-note, environmental conditions northwest of the Azores become increasingly supportive for a potential subtropical development. A closed upper low NW of the Azores meanders to the east/northeast/north and models like GFS/EZMWF indicate a gradually developing warm core structure during the upcoming 48 h. However, subtropical development during the forecast period (24 h) seems unlikely due to the merging of a quasi-barotropic depression, with a baroclinically coined one from the north, so rapid strengthening of those morphing features is forecast with a pressure drop, justifying the term "explosive development". Despite the interesting synoptic background of this feature, it will also increase the blocking over the E-Atlantic, which is supported by the latest geopotential height gradient index forecast for the N-Atlantic.

Su Campu

RGB and water vapour imagery suggest a possible stingjet scenario this morning, with the occlusion wrapped in tight into the centre, and a clear area visible in the centre, suggesting strong downward motion of dry stratospheric air.

19VanD87

My god that is serious looking!!What are the chances of this actually hitting us?

Su Campu

19VanD87 wrote: »

My god that is serious looking!!What are the chances of this actually hitting us?

Practically nil. As it's cut off, all it's doing at the moment is pumping warm air north, feeding the High that's building in over us. By late tomorrow it already filling as it becomes absorbed by an upper trough heading eastwards off New Foundland. Danielle follows close behind and then it too gets absorbed by another trough, forming a deep cut off system off new Foundland. By midweek this system starts to shift eastwards, and as MT said, could affect us next weekend, as the global pattern starts to become more progressive again.

Redsunset

Yep a more global view showing what Su has been saying and of course you can see Danielle and Earl and potential invests coming off africa

Su Campu

What struck me looking at that pic is that tropical systems must be the furthest-travelling weather systems on the planet. Take for instance one of those disturbances over eastern Africa, say Ethiopia. If it travels west, becomes a storm off west Africa, heads towards the Leeward Islands, curves up just off the US east coast, and heads over to Ireland via New Foundland, it will have done a trip of around 12,000 miles.....more than the distance from Ireland to New Zealand, or around half the circumference of the globe! And all because water has a high specific heat capacity....

maquiladora

12Z ECM shows "Hurricane Fiona" making landfall. Nasty looking, but its at 240, "Fiona" isn't even a TD yet

delw

dats a smashing view/picture redsunset,cheers for posting it,realy puts tings in2 perspective

Su Campu

The latest ASCAT pass is showing winds up to 30 knots around the soon-to-be Fiona (on the right)

maquiladora

ECM is still sticking with the idea of 'Fiona' becoming a very powerful hurricane.

0Z run is a nightmare for Florida :

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010082900!!!step/