Hurricanes

maquiladora

12Z ECM takes 'Fiona' a lot further south, swings it into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP240.gif

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM takes 'Fiona' a lot further south, swings it into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP240.gif

Looks particularly nasty on that run with the Caribbean islands taking a direct hit:



before it intensifies and heads towards the Gulf states :eek:. Keeping an eye on this development.

Deep Easterly

Anyone remember our own little brush with what looked like a tropical storm last October? (even had an eye!)

Redsunset

Sure do DEEP.

Twas amazing EX GRACE,










Saved them on my hard drive last year.

Redsunset

The story so far folks in 2010,































Im not gonna include any Tropical storms.


This was Katrina in 2005

maquiladora

Invest 92 could be an interesting one.

Su Campu

We've just hit the climatological peak of the season, which occurs on September 10th. This year really is following that trend.

maquiladora

Igor, Julia and the another wave ready to come off Africa

TheMilkyPirate

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Anyone remember our own little brush with what looked like a tropical storm last October? (even had an eye!)

What exactly was it??

Deep Easterly

baraca wrote: »

What exactly was it??

Well the charts show it to be a tropical storm but whether it was a full blown one or not I cannot say simply because it is very unusual to have a tropical feature like that to run so close to the Irish coast. Others more in the know might be able to answer fully.

maquiladora

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE WIND CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

WolfeIRE

anyone know which of the current atlantic storms is below, showing up for Friday 23 off our coast. Looks like trouble should it pan out

maquiladora

WolfeIRE wrote: »

anyone know which of the current atlantic storms is below, showing up for Friday 23 off our coast. Looks like trouble should it pan out

That would be Igor but I wouldnt be too worried about it. 12Z GFS operational has it going to Greenland. UKMO and ECM also dont show its remains getting anywhere close to us.

Long way off still though, track will change a lot on every run.

gbee

maquiladora wrote: »

That would be Igor but I wouldnt be too worried about it. 12Z GFS operational has it going to Greenland. .

Is this a forward projection model? EDIT: Of course it is I see it's date. Silly me.

At time of posting Igor has not impacted Bermuda yet and in the picture the storm is about 1,000 miles away still at this stage and as you've said.

The models are split though, half say Igor will impact Ireland, two say defiantly not and will go north and get lost and the rest are not updated.

John mac

nice pics here http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2010/h2010_Karl.html

maquiladora

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Will probably be another fish storm, but the models are a bit all over the place :

maquiladora

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...BUT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW APPEARS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

maquiladora

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Models still haven't a hold on where this will go.

Redsunset

http://www.accuweather.com/video/617103752001/the-reason-for-the-season-and-why-i-wasnt-teasin.asp?channel=vbbastaj

maquiladora

Invest 96 is one to watch. Potential Tropical Strorm/Cat 1 hurricane for Florida

maquiladora

1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.


Btw, the GEM model is showing the remains of this future named storm zooming up the US east coast, over the Atlantic and towards us.