House prices still too high!

fliball123

gurramok wrote: »

God, your posts are getting cyclical without any logic of skill.

Here:




By managing to list extra companies without asking me first, you think you have superior knowledge of IT.
Fyi pal, I was not asked for a list. I was responding to the examples that your colleague fliball was listing.

We can have a race of listing IT companys all night if you wish to be that pedantic.

It does not prove one iota to justify high house prices in Dublin.

Well what justifys higher prices in an area over another as pointed out already the differences in the states between New york and Kansas

or London and Liverpool

Dublin has a better infrasture (I know its not great) than the rest of the country. It has 1/4 of the population of the country. Theres 2 too start with

I mean can you give me reasons as too why new york is more expensive than kansas same with London and Liverpool. I reckon the two I stated for dublin over say Longford are the same???

fliball123

Zamboni wrote: »

Do you have a link for this?
I can't even imagine who, how or where this research was compiled or conducted by.
Or the 20k FTB's estimate you mentioned previously?

I am digging for it I cant find it

ntlbell

fliball123 wrote: »

Nama will be taking houses/loans that are gone into say liquidation and holding them off the market therefore decreasing supply. Which I believe was the whole unhanded purpose of Nama. I dont agree with it but this is what it will do and it will put these properties out for sale when the supply in areas have dried up and drip feed and the gov is the only institution that can do this as it has our tax money to back it up.

Hear say

fliball123 wrote: »

The FTBs a lot of them that I was reading about have between 50% - 80% of the equity up for a property so as I say there are a lot of people waiting (since 2002) to buy

There's always people waiting to buy.

But the problem is, will they have jobs tomorrow.

Will they be making enough money to secure mortgages required.

Will they be able to make payments of interest rates rise?

Will they be able to get loans?

Are they in secure enough jobs to get loans

having a a small minority would money to buy in full will not dry up the huge amount of empties.

fliball123 wrote: »

So you reckon that if our unemployment goes above 20% and people cant afford mortgages do you really think that these people will be given say 12 month momatorium on it and then pay or get out...There would be bigger risen then in 1916 after the developers/banks bailout so I reckon there will be something coming in with in a few years

Speculation/hear say blah blah no facts

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah Net emigration is still outdone by birth rate/death rate here in Ireland

Oversupply see Nama above

As for the ecconomy it will effect housing of course it will even if it is just inflationary

The birth ready has steadily been decreasing, will people be able to afford to have kids?

NAMA, we have no idea what NAMA will do bar costing the tax payer a shed load of money.

fliball123

ntlbell wrote: »

Hear say



There's always people waiting to buy.

But the problem is, will they have jobs tomorrow.

Will they be making enough money to secure mortgages required.

Will they be able to make payments of interest rates rise?

Will they be able to get loans?

Are they in secure enough jobs to get loans

having a a small minority would money to buy in full will not dry up the huge amount of empties.






Speculation/hear say blah blah no facts



The birth ready has steadily been decreasing, will people be able to afford to have kids?

NAMA, we have no idea what NAMA will do bar costing the tax payer a shed load of money.

Really hear say so why is it estimated that there is over 300k properties and if you look on daft or myhome - daft has the most at about 90k properties where are the rest????? Do you think people just dont want to sell these empties??? who are you kidding a lot of them are in the process of going into Nama and they will not be for sale for a fair while.

And we are in the middle of the biggest baby boom the country has seen thats a fact

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/baby-boom-births-reach-113-year-peak-99913.html

ntlbell

fliball123 wrote: »

Really hear say so why is it estimated that there is over 300k properties and if you look on daft or myhome - daft has the most at about 90k properties where are the rest????? Do you think people just dont want to sell these empties??? who are you kidding a lot of them are in the process of going into Nama and they will not be for sale for a fair while.

And we are in the middle of the biggest baby boom the country has seen thats a fact

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/baby-boom-births-reach-113-year-peak-99913.html

great, so in 25 years or so we'll have loads of people to buy the houses.

now hows that going to stop houses falling _now_

fliball123

ntlbell wrote: »

great, so in 25 years or so we'll have loads of people to buy the houses.

now hows that going to stop houses falling _now_

Never said it would but for people saying net emigration there has been a steady increase births so the net emigration is not a factor either for not buying a house

ntlbell

fliball123 wrote: »

Never said it would but for people saying net emigration there has been a steady increase births so the net emigration is not a factor either for not buying a house

You said you couldn't see house prices falling much further.

you have been given clear reasons why they will

you came back with nonsense that has no real affect on the current drops

so again, what's going to stop the current drops we see?

what have you seen to suggest we're nearing the bottom?

gurramok

fliball123 wrote: »

Well what justifys higher prices in an area over another as pointed out already the differences in the states between New york and Kansas

or London and Liverpool

Dublin has a better infrasture (I know its not great) than the rest of the country. It has 1/4 of the population of the country. Theres 2 too start with

I mean can you give me reasons as too why new york is more expensive than kansas same with London and Liverpool. I reckon the two I stated for dublin over say Longford are the same???

If you have been following the conversation, the entire Dublin city and suburbs where people want to buy is majorly overpriced, not just your Foxrock.
It also includes traditional good working class areas that are safe if you think i'm posting from my Shrewsbury Rd residence

Zamboni

fliball123 wrote: »

Never said it would but for people saying net emigration there has been a steady increase births so the net emigration is not a factor either for not buying a house

Of course it is a factor. Who do you think are emmigrating?
People of working age who can't find jobs here, hence less demand for housing here.

fliball123

ntlbell wrote: »

You said you couldn't see house prices falling much further.

you have been given clear reasons why they will

you came back with nonsense that has no real affect on the current drops

so again, what's going to stop the current drops we see?

what have you seen to suggest we're nearing the bottom?

What I have seen is as pointed out

The gov interfering and not letting the property prices go down much further

The Cost of houses just over 200k the average wage about 35k between 5/6 times the average salary. More affordable

Interest rates at an all time low - The question people will be asking is where will it be in a year 1% higher as suggested by Bryan I think So in effect if you lock in a fixed term now for 5 years you could be saving 1% this year and god knows what % next year.

And the kicker we all now have a vested interest in the property prices at the very least leveling off and going up as our taxes are paying for it and belive me if it continues to fall at the same rate for say another 3 years there will be civil war. In about a years time if we arent on the uppers there will be more gov intervention they are at a point where they realistically cannot get much more out of tax I belive the point of diminishing returns with regards to taxation. So they cant get much more out of us. The Public sector are striking and fecking around they cant take much more out of that...So either we are on the uppers or we are going greek style ....Either way if you own a gaff, rent a gaff have 5 gaffs we are all going to be hit with this ****storm if it happens...Which is why nama is here and it will prop up the property prices ...

MuffinsDa

gurramok wrote: »

.... your colleague fliball was listing...

I refuse to engage in any further discussions with you as long as you keep referring to fliball as "your colleague" despite my repeated explanation before , and dragging the level of conversation to pathetic flame baiting. As I said, I see why you are doing it and I'm not getting engaged in your silly and childish game. Go find someone in gutter level to play that game with you.

quozl

fliball123 wrote: »

Never said it would but for people saying net emigration there has been a steady increase births so the net emigration is not a factor either for not buying a house

Please think that through. Babies don't buy houses.

Even if the population stayed the same because babies replaced emigrants that would not maintain the same demand for property.

Most babies I know just won't leave the nest and quit sponging off their parents.

fliball123

gurramok wrote: »

If you have been following the conversation, the entire Dublin city and suburbs where people want to buy is majorly overpriced, not just your Foxrock.
It also includes traditional good working class areas that are safe if you think i'm posting from my Shrewsbury Rd residence

yeah once again shimmying out of the question I asked

why is london so much dearer than Liverpool????

fliball123

Zamboni wrote: »

Of course it is a factor. Who do you think are emmigrating?
People of working age who can't find jobs here, hence less demand for housing here.

Yes this baby boom has been on the increase from the the 90s so once again until there are stats at the end of the year to prove either way you cannot say its a factor

fliball123

Guys if you do a birth vs death rate on Ireland over the last 40 years you will see that we have been going on the up all the time so **** off with the babies **** your taking from 40 years old downwards there are more people knocking about not to mention the influx fo foreigners over the last decade ...

gurramok

MuffinsDa wrote: »

I refuse to engage in any further discussions with you as long as you keep referring to fliball as "your colleague" despite my repeated explanation before , and dragging the level of conversation to pathetic flame baiting. As I said, I see why you are doing it and I'm not getting engaged in your silly and childish game. Go find someone in gutter level to play that game with you.

Oh boy. Pot and kettle come to mind. Childish are we?

MuffinsDa wrote: »

You obviously haven't a clue what IT is

I really have to doubt your claim of working in IT if you lack the basic logical skill of being able to differentiate between "for example" and "this is a fully inclusive list

Once more, seeing that you are unable to read or comprehend

unless again your cognitive disorder and selective reading skills are at play.

if you haven't got it by now then there is some cognitive problem there

Grow up, and respond with reason and logic if you are capable of

fliball123 wrote: »

yeah once again shimmying out of the question I asked

why is london so much dearer than Liverpool????

London has the City of London as a serious financial power unlike Dublin(despite a tiny IFSC) and Liverpool. See the pattern?

fliball123 wrote: »

Guys if you do a birth vs death rate on Ireland over the last 40 years you will see that we have been going on the up all the time so **** off with the babies **** your taking from 40 years old downwards there are more people knocking about not to mention the influx fo foreigners over the last decade ...

Foreigners by and large do not buy houses. The CSO found this out in the last census.

fliball123

yeah but foreigners rent they still need to live somewhere..

as for the whole financial thing the banks in England are as fecked up as ours give me a break will you..

I dont see any pattern to what your saying Gurramok

the pattern I do see is

London is to liverpool
as
Dublin is to Longford

3 stats

bigger population/better infrasture/ More jobs

If you cant see this or dissagree dont bother posting it as it will be bull**** what your saying End of

Listen I seem to be getting a grilling in here I am trying to answer as honestly as I can ...I have said from the get go I think, my opinion and never once reccommended anyone do anything silly

But people buying a house who have a steady job and are earning more 5x what the house is worth and is willing to stay in the house for 20 years +

I personally would buy but like I said every creature out there is different

oflahero

fliball123 wrote: »

And the kicker we all now have a vested interest in the property prices at the very least leveling off and going up as our taxes are paying for it ...... Which is why nama is here and it will prop up the property prices ...

What's this 'we', paleface??

This is so wrongheaded I really don't know where to start.

1. NAMA will not prop up property prices. Will not. Cannot. There is no demand for the fields in Borris-on-Ossory, or for Anglo's shell in the docklands. It may delay the inevitable, but the money is not there for our broke government to intervene on such a scale.
2. How do we all have a vested interest in property prices? So our taxes can go towards a black hole so that we can later buy overpriced property and get reamed twice? I know what you're trying to say, that NAMA can eventually flog its toxic crap at breakeven or profit, but the only way it can do that is if we continue to shoulder the difference with a narrowing tax take, or somehow grow amazingly competitive overnight and experience a miracle boom. Not going to happen. We're overpaid as it is, and NAMA prices will never be seen again as long as we are all living.

Low property prices = low costs = competitiveness = Good Thing.
High property prices = good for Donie Cassidy.

gurramok

How do foreigners push up house prices while they rent while rents themselves nevermind house prices are still falling? Explain that one please.

Read again regarding London. There is still a huge employment centre there in the financial industry despite its recent troubles.

There is not the same in Dublin nor Liverpool nor Longford.

fliball wrote:

But people buying a house who have a steady job and are earning more 5x what the house is worth and is willing to stay in the house for 20 years +

Earning how much? How can they afford the high prices?

fliball123

oflahero wrote: »

What's this 'we', paleface??

This is so wrongheaded I really don't know where to start.

1. NAMA will not prop up property prices. Will not. Cannot. There is no demand for the fields in Borris-on-Ossory, or for Anglo's shell in the docklands. It may delay the inevitable, but the money is not there for our broke government to intervene on such a scale.
2. How do we all have a vested interest in property prices? So our taxes can go towards a black hole so that we can later buy overpriced property and get reamed twice? I know what you're trying to say, that NAMA can eventually flog its toxic crap at breakeven or profit, but the only way it can do that is if we continue to shoulder the difference with a narrowing tax take, or somehow grow amazingly competitive overnight and experience a miracle boom. Not going to happen. We're overpaid as it is, and NAMA prices will never be seen again as long as we are all living.

Low property prices = low costs = competitiveness = Good Thing.
High property prices = good for Donie Cassidy.

Hey I never said I supported it...but just by taking propeties away from the market it decreases supply

Lower property prices = More people in negitive equity = more repossession = more tax payer money = Good thing really???

fliball123

gurramok wrote: »

How do foreigners push up house prices while they rent while rents themselves nevermind house prices are still falling? Explain that one please.

Read again regarding London. There is still a huge employment centre there in the financial industry despite its recent troubles.

There is not the same in Dublin nor Liverpool nor Longford.



Earning how much? How can they afford the high prices?

Earning 5x

So if say they were buying a gaff for 250k and so earning 50k ...


England are in the same mire that we are in Gurramok the recession didnt just plant on us now having said that they are better off with regards to ecconomy they are on the up

but the facts remain the same for dublin property prices

Higher population + better infrastructure + more jobs = higher house prices

gurramok

fliball123 wrote: »

Earning 5x

So if say they were buying a gaff for 250k and so earning 50k ...

England are in the same mire that we are in Gurramok the recession didnt just plant on us now having said that they are better off with regards to ecconomy they are on the up

but the facts remain the same for dublin property prices

Higher population + better infrastructure + more jobs = higher house prices

Whats available for a high earner on 50k to buy at 250k in Dublin? Feck all is your answer unless they want to look over their shoulder constantly.

Have you noticed the unemployment figures recently?

More jobs does not neccessarily lead to high house prices. Its based on those jobs earning potential(besides other factors), you may not have noticed but peoples incomes have been falling alot over the past 2years, both private and public sector.

oflahero

fliball123 wrote: »

Lower property prices = More people in negitive equity = more repossession = more tax payer money = Good thing really???

Lower property prices = more people in negative equity, but big deal, that's not repossession. If they haven't lost their jobs, life continues as before, although maybe without the dinner parties where rising house prices are the main topic of conversation.

Lower property prices = more people in negative equity who HAVE suffered savage paycuts/job losses = more repossession = now they rent. The horror!

Only in extremis will lower property prices lead to a burden on the state. In the meantime, everyone else takes advantage of lower domestic & commercial prices to free up capital into something actually productive!

fliball123

gurramok wrote: »

Whats available for a high earner on 50k to buy at 250k in Dublin? Feck all is your answer unless they want to look over their shoulder constantly.

Have you noticed the unemployment figures recently?

More jobs does not neccessarily lead to high house prices. Its based on those jobs earning potential(besides other factors), you may not have noticed but peoples incomes have been falling alot over the past 2years, both private and public sector.

Well there is near 2k properties in dublin for that price on daft

I have noticed the umemployment figures and there is about 11/12% of the population who will not lose their job for definate as they are in the public sector.

Never said more jobs would lead to higher prices and also you may not have noticed but houses have dropped considerable more % wise than incomes

fliball123

oflahero wrote: »

Lower property prices = more people in negative equity, but big deal, that's not repossession. If they haven't lost their jobs, life continues as before, although maybe without the dinner parties where rising house prices are the main topic of conversation.

Lower property prices = more people in negative equity who HAVE suffered savage paycuts/job losses = more repossession = now they rent. The horror!

Only in extremis will lower property prices lead to a burden on the state. In the meantime, everyone else takes advantage of lower domestic & commercial prices to free up capital into something actually productive!

They rent getting more allowences alla our taxes either way you look at this if there are mass repossessions which is one of the main reasons why house prices might fall into oblivion we the tax payer will be paying it

head_hertz

House prices go in cycles and eventually they will increase to boom values again, the question is when?, in my opinion the poster who listed the drivers had a reasonable method and what follows is my own opinion on the matter.

I suggest that residential house prices in ROI will continue to fall due to the lack of any drivers for price growth (effective over my suggested time span) and the abundance of drivers for deflation over the course of (my opinion) 2 years.

namely:

• The lack of available credit for mortgages relative to previous years
• poor (housing) consumer sentiment, and no current investors
• record (absolute) unemployment
• definite impending cuts in public spending for another two years
• probable future interest rate hikes
• probable future income tax increases
• inevitable future property tax
• inevitable future water charges
• current falling rents
• NAMA wont drive growth in the next two years all it can potentially do is to slow deflation (over the next two years if it gets up to speed quickly)
• there may also be a fire sale of private property investments due to loan default (unable to rent out second/third homes and defaulting) and banks selling them on to falling market outside of NAMA.

all my opinion, take it for what its worth, I'd be putting house purchase on the long finger for a while yet.

ntlbell

fliball123 wrote: »

Well there is near 2k properties in dublin for that price on daft

I have noticed the umemployment figures and there is about 11/12% of the population who will not lose their job for definate as they are in the public sector.

Never said more jobs would lead to higher prices and also you may not have noticed but houses have dropped considerable more % wise than incomes

They may not lose their job, but they are also affected by wage decreases.

Tax increases.

Interest hikes.

The same as everyone else.

How many from that % in the PS are potential FTB's?

How many of them are FTB's and earning enough to finanance a mortgage?

because the screams coming from the PS is there almost poverty stricken.

gurramok

fliball123 wrote: »

Well there is near 2k properties in dublin for that price on daft

I have noticed the umemployment figures and there is about 11/12% of the population who will not lose their job for definate as they are in the public sector.

Have you examined said properties? Where should a person on 50k desire to live, what type of gaff they should be looking at?

How will the public sector save high house prices? They had pay cuts too.

fliball123 wrote: »

Never said more jobs would lead to higher prices and also you may not have noticed but houses have dropped considerable more % wise than incomes

Incomes never tracked high house prices in the first place. Prices are still way ahead of incomes, one thing needs to give and it ain't incomes.

fliball123

ntlbell wrote: »

They may not lose their job, but they are also affected by wage decreases.

Tax increases.

Interest hikes.

The same as everyone else.

How many from that % in the PS are potential FTB's?

How many of them are FTB's and earning enough to finanance a mortgage?

because the screams coming from the PS is there almost poverty stricken.

They might when will this happen circa to date no one out of the ps has lost there jobs just some of the contractors

Tax increases once again google the law of diminishing returns and ireland tases their is a small bit of wiggle room not a lot but if they continue they will break this and there will be another ****storm brewing

Not sure about the %s

I just put up a criteria of

if I was earning see 1/5 of what the property was and had a stable job (ps maybe) and seen something I liked and was willing to stay in the place for 20 years plus I would go for it

oflahero

fliball123 wrote: »

They rent getting more allowences alla our taxes either way you look at this if there are mass repossessions which is one of the main reasons why house prices might fall into oblivion we the tax payer will be paying it

If there are mass repossessions then it will be because there will have been mass job losses. House prices are just a consequence. An interest in keeping house prices high is just treating the symptom and keeping the 'have's in society in clover. The taxpayer will be screwed because the economy fell off a cliff, not because house prices dropped!