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House prices still too high!
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You don't quite get it do you. I'm not looking for a castle in Dalkey, i'm looking for perhaps a house in Blanch or Lucan as the previous poster mentioned on these areas.
The majority of the entire workforce has had some sort of pay freeze or pay cut and we all have had hikes in income taxes aka levys. That means decreasing disposable income.
"Higher population + more jobs + better infrastructure = higher house price". Any sensible person will know this is not true. They can all be on 20k, it would not make any difference unless most were high earners which they are not.
Of course, Dublin prices will be higher than that cottage in Longford, the problem is that they are still too high in Dublin to justify the lack of demand.
If 35-37k according to you is the average wage, what can they get for 205k in Dublin? This is one big mystery in which bulls like you cannot answer.
Bulls like me are you the pot or kettle there
there are 87 properties in blanck and 197 in Lucan for under 250k feel free to look
So I am sorry about the castle in dalkey you want it in Blanch
Higher population + more jobs + better infrastructure = higher house
and this holds everywhere even in the likes of ****ing china where little huts in the likes of Hong Kong are more expensive than other little shanty towns outside the lets hear it people the lesser densily populated areas did you not do geography in school.
You just dont get it and I am afraid you never will
The 35/37k is average and for every person earing 20 there is someone earnig 60k
my fundamental point is if your earning 1/5th of the property price like the house willing to stay there for 20years + and have a steady job go for it.
Anyway look no point in the name calling its a discussion just because I believe something different to you but the proof is in the pudding ala and I will put this in bold for you
DUBLIN PRICES ARE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY SO THERE IS THE PROOF OF
Higher population + more jobs + better infrastructure = higher house
OR IS THERE SOMEWHERE MORE EXPENSIVE?0 -
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fliball123 wrote: »Bulls like me are you the pot or kettle there
there are 87 properties in blanck and 197 in Lucan for under 250k feel free to look
So I am sorry about the castle in dalkey you want it in Blanch
Higher population + more jobs + better infrastructure = higher house
and this holds everywhere even in the likes of ****ing china where little huts in the likes of Hong Kong are more expensive than other little shanty towns outside the lets hear it people the lesser densily populated areas did you not do geography in school.
You just dont get it and I am afraid you never will
The 35/37k is average and for every person earing 20 there is someone earnig 60k
my fundamental point is if your earning 1/5th of the property price like the house willing to stay there for 20years + and have a steady job go for it.
Anyway look no point in the name calling its a discussion just because I believe something different to you but the proof is in the pudding ala and I will put this in bold for you
DUBLIN PRICES ARE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY SO THERE IS THE PROOF OF
Higher population + more jobs + better infrastructure = higher house
OR IS THERE SOMEWHERE MORE EXPENSIVE?fliball123 wrote: »Looks like everyone has left work for the day..Anyway talk to you all tomorrow its been good sparring with yez all
And Gurramok once again
Dublin is higher prices because of the equation I gave you and proof is out there in when you try to buy a house in dublin if you where to move a house from dublin and slap in the back arse of say offaly it would be worth about half. Why is that????? hint I gave you the equation earlier
Writing it in bold does not make your argument valid.
Average in Lucan seems to be 240k for a house on 42 results with the lower priced ones near Neilstown. I don't want to live in Sheepmore or Fortlawn in Blanch. Thanks for asking.
Where did I dispute that Dublin prices are not more expensive than the rest of the country?
Dublin has a much lower population density than HK. Just like comparing Dublin to London to justify high house prices does not wash.
I'm still waiting for examples of houses for 205k in liveable areas in Dublin. You cannot seem to provide them which makes your case silly just like when you said high prices are good for taxes.fliball wrote:And the kicker we all now have a vested interest in the property prices at the very least leveling off and going up as our taxes are paying for it0 -
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You are right that the average Dublin house is not affordable to the average single earner but it is not as bad as you think.
Assuming the price falls have not slowed down in the last 3 months compared with the 3 months before that, it means the current average house price in Dublin is €222,000 but lets assume prices are not falling as fast and say the average price is substantially higher at €230,000
So the question is how unaffordable is this average house worth €230,000 to the average single person taking home €2543 a month.
He will need a 10% deposit so will be looking for a €207,000 mortgage. EBS will offer a variable rate mortgage on this amount over 30 years at €883.92 a month which is 34.75% of take home pay. I agree however that someone in this situation should fix. So a 5 year fixed rate mortgage over 30 years would cost €1030 which is 40% of take home pay although it does leave slightly over €1500 a month after mortgage payments.
http://online.ebs.ie/internet/forms/loan_centre/repay_calculator_result.jsp
So I agree it is still not affordable to the careful purchaser but as I said things are not as bad as you think.
At least you see my point about prices been still too high In Dublin. Thank You.
How do EBS offer a 30yr timespan VAR at 883? Its going to be more than that most of the time when rates do go up. Thats very misleading and dishonest from them. Fixed rates are indeed attractive.
If the average price is 230k and needing a mortgage of 207k, thats an average wage of 41.4k thats needed for a single buyer using the 5x formula. That average buyer would want a bigger deposit to ease the burden if buying now or of course just wait 0 -
You are getting a little worked up about this Treehouse.:)
You are right that the average Dublin house is not affordable to the average single earner but it is not as bad as you think. First of all you are comparing median salary to average house price. This of course is an incorrect way to view things. You should compare average wage to average house price or else median wage to median house price. But we will let that go for the moment.
You are also looking at current median wage, compared with house prices 4+ months ago. As you know prices are falling. Assuming the price falls have not slowed down in the last 3 months compared with the 3 months before that, it means the current average house price in Dublin is €222,000 but lets assume prices are not falling as fast and say the average price is substantially higher at €230,000
Your maths is not very good. 33% of €2373 is not €783 it is €791 but that is not your biggest mistake. I have told you 3 times already that you are using the calculator incorrectly. The actual take home pay of a single person earning €38,664 is €2543 (your figures assume a self employed person which is really getting into niche markets).
So the question is how unaffordable is this average house worth €230,000 to the average single person taking home €2543 a month.
He will need a 10% deposit so will be looking for a €207,000 mortgage. EBS will offer a variable rate mortgage on this amount over 30 years at €883.92 a month which is 34.75% of take home pay. I agree however that someone in this situation should fix. So a 5 year fixed rate mortgage over 30 years would cost €1030 which is 40% of take home pay although it does leave slightly over €1500 a month after mortgage payments.
http://online.ebs.ie/internet/forms/loan_centre/repay_calculator_result.jsp
So I agree it is still not affordable to the careful purchaser but as I said things are not as bad as you think.
By the way I love in your calculation of rent cost and purchase cost you assume the renter will negotiate a discount of 10% but the buyer will pay the asking price:D You are right however that the return here at 4.5% is low.
Edit: Just as a short aside. When using your calculator of median wage maybe you should look at years experience. Traditionally the average first time buyer in Ireland is over thirty. Someone with over 10 years experience earns a median wage of €50,684. But that is a seperate issue I suppose.
OMD done the work for me here I checked out his figures and they make sence...Gurromok listen I would not advise people on under 30k or with a dodgy job to come anywhere near property lets be clear on that...I have no stake in this what so ever I have my gaff which I am very happy in I have about 2 years of payments to make and its mine weather it goes up down accross in value. I have 1 kid under 3 and another due in 2 months and the peace of mind I get when I know this is my house no landlord or other person is going to kick me out (except the wife ) but you need to understand there are people starting out in life that will be looking to buy ...I have tried to up front I pointed out the negitives and possitives in this...as I say every creature is different in what they have and what they need. 0 -
fliball123 wrote: »So are we arguing over nothing then...Well look like I said I agreed that prices are still too high everywhere I came out with a formula for people looking to buy ... So I appologise if I rubbed you up the wrong way but you were putting forward an argument as to why dublin prices are higher than the rest of the country if not I appologise but like I put in the formula of higher pop + more jobs + better infra = higher prices
So I will take the high road on this one...but I do agree property is still over priced but like I said its for individuals to look at there finances and check to see if it makes sense to buy in the next couple of months where you can still lock in a decent fixed rate loan. Also the Joker in the pack is Nama whats going to happen I have expressed my feelings about this what the gov are going to do with property. ala decrease supply.
So if supply is going to go down which it will
If the ecconomy of Ireland mirror that of the US/UK which historiacally it does
That to me are two strong indicators that a floor will be reached...
So its a bet as I said previous to buy a house you may as hell slap your money on a horse but if you in it for the long term ie 20 years + a home. I reckon you will be better off buy in the next while fixing in a nice low fixed rate and also saving on rent...
Well, I kept telling you my position yesterday but it fell on deaf ears
If Nama tries that as you say, things are against them.
-Prices still too high do not help sales.
-Strict or as I say normal lending will keep prices down.
-Salaries have taken a knock and will take a while to recover.
-Unknown tax hikes down the line to hit disposable income in order to balance the exchequer deficit
-Quality of builds of mostly apts in urban areas militates against strong sales.
-Down the line we do need a constant construction industry, not a bloated one like before so supply in demand areas cannot be held back for too long.
-And the elephant in the room. Emigration of Irish adults means fewer buyers around as we know foreign people who immigrate here do not buy that much as they prefer to rent.0 -
Well, I kept telling you my position yesterday but it fell on deaf ears
If Nama tries that as you say, things are against them.
-Prices still too high do not help sales.
-Strict or as I say normal lending will keep prices down.
-Salaries have taken a knock and will take a while to recover.
-Unknown tax hikes down the line to hit disposable income in order to balance the exchequer deficit
-Quality of builds of mostly apts in urban areas militates against strong sales. -Down the line we do need a constant construction industry, not a bloated one like before so supply in demand areas cannot be held back for too long.
-And the elephant in the room. Emigration of Irish adults means fewer buyers around as we know foreign people who immigrate here do not buy that much as they prefer to rent.
Well let me have a go at each of these
Point 1 - -Prices still too high do not help sales.
Agree with the prices high will not help sales but for anyone who has bought in the boom I garentee you they will not sell unless forced to sell, which means a repossession. Which means the house goes into Nama and stays there as it will decrease supply or goes on a fire sale which means Mr Tax payer pays more.
Point 2 -Strict or as I say normal lending will keep prices down.
I aggree but there is an estimated 80 million in savings within Ireland now I am not saying all these people are waiting to buy but its about time there was stricter laws. All this will do is regulate the amount thats sold and bought which should have happened ages ago. But sure there has been feck all sold in the last 2/3 years. But once again if you bought something back in 2006 for say 300k and your being offered 150k why would you sell? See point one for what will happens if your forced to sell
Point 3 - Salaries have taken a knock and will take a while to recover.
Not everywhere has taken a knock and infact some people have got pay rises. The P.S are striking and the Gov is backed into a corner. Now IMF may come in and cut the **** of them but who knows whats going to happen there but no one knows whats going to happen.
Point 4 - -Unknown tax hikes down the line to hit disposable income in order to balance the exchequer deficit
Google Ireland tax and the law of diminishing returns this has already been pointed out to the gov and I reckon they can squeeze slightly more but if they keep going it will be like flogging a dead dog
Point 5 --Quality of builds of mostly apts in urban areas militates against strong sales. -Down the line we do need a constant construction industry, not a bloated one like before so supply in demand areas cannot be held back for too long.
Construction companies within Ireland are fecked have a look at the level of completions from 2005 to now and you will a sharp drop. What developer in there right mind would build in Ireland. The only people building now are individuals who want their dream home and the hoops and ****e that you have to go through for planning permission in this country is a dissaster..
Point 6 - -And the elephant in the room. Emigration of Irish adults means fewer buyers around as we know foreign people who immigrate here do not buy that much as they prefer to rent
Not so much an elephant. I agree Emigration of Irish adults is increasing but we are still more populated now than 10 years ago. Since 1960 birth vs death rates have excelled last year was the biggest baby boom in 119 years plus we still have an over hang of foreign immigrants. So it would have to double in amounts of people emigrating to be a serious problem.
And Nama for intense purpose is the biggest conspiracy the gov has ever pulled let me make it clear I hate what they have done they could of just nationalised the banks and let the anglos go to the wall but thats another days work. But it is essentally there to prop up the market0 -
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