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The Lucky Number 4 log

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  • 01-06-2010 10:49am
    #1
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭


    No I haven't gone mad (yet) this is purely a piece of curiosity. Can "backing" the same number horse in each race yeild more wins than any more "considered" system? I'll do this for the next week or two.

    I'll post up the win/place/unplaced stats every day with the SP for the win & places.

    30 runners 3 wins 5 placed 22 unplaced

    Joyously 9/2 place
    Music City 9/4 place
    Buona Sarah 7/1 place
    Kirstys Boy 5/1 place
    Jigsaw Man 4/9 place
    Michigan Assass 11/1 win
    Amys Song 11/2 win
    Cabernet Sauvig 2/1 win


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    #2
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    37 runners 4 wins 7 placed 26 unplaced

    Master Sebastian 15/2 place
    Billy Merriott 13/2 place
    Classic Punch 40/1 place
    Island Legend 7/1 place
    Danzoe 13/2 place
    Fuzzy Cat 5/2 place
    Gracies Gift 4/1 place
    Tajneed 11/2 win
    Bankstair 2/1 win
    Tilapia 50/1 win :eek:
    Force Of Habit 7/2 win


    If betting 1 euro to win the results are as follows

    Day 1 loss 8.5 euro
    Day 2 profit 27 euro


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    #3
    _MadRa_
    Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭_MadRa_


    Finally.... A System that Works :D


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    #4
    ForzaKid
    Registered Users Posts: 320 ✭✭ForzaKid


    You seriously have too much time on your hands Mike 65:P:D:pac:..


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    #5
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    50/1 winner today, I'm gonna follow tomorrow, just for ****s and giggles! :)


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    #6
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    ForzaKid wrote: »
    You seriously have too much time on your hands Mike 65:P:D:pac:..

    This is true but the thread only takes 10 mins a day to update :)

    40 runners 2 wins 3 placed 35 unplaced

    Finisk Rose 20/1 place
    Diamond Charlie 6/1 place
    Hippolytus 17/2 place
    Imperial Delight 9/2 win
    Players Please 11/4 win

    Poor day today!


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    #7
    thesandeman
    Registered Users Posts: 10,433 ✭✭✭✭thesandeman


    Often thought about doing that for the dogs on a quiet day but never have. Remember watching one day and I think 8 trap 4s came in in a row.


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    #8
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Results for Friday

    53 runners 6 wins 11 placed 36 unplaced

    Music Festival 25/1 placed
    Harriers Call 20/1 placed
    Flowing Cape 8/1 placed
    Robens Rock 11/8 placed
    Silken Thoughts 16/1 placed
    King Columbo 9/1 placed
    El Libertador 7/1 placed
    Mnarani 6/1 placed
    Speed Dating 10/3 placed
    Eviction 17/2 placed
    Albero Di Giuda 12/1 placed
    Tamtara 11/4 win
    Arjemis 16/1 win
    Desert Kiss 9/2 win
    Fame And Glory 5/6 win
    Neebras 1/2 win
    King High 11/4 win


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    #9
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,032 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    Results for Friday

    53 runners 6 wins 11 placed -36pts

    Music Festival 25/1 placed +2pts
    Harriers Call 20/1 placed +1.5pts
    Flowing Cape 8/1 placed +0.3pts
    Robens Rock 11/8 placed -1pt
    Silken Thoughts 16/1 placed +1.1pts
    King Columbo 9/1 placed +0.4pts
    El Libertador 7/1 placed +0.2pts
    Mnarani 6/1 placed +0.1pts
    Speed Dating 10/3 placed -1pt
    Eviction 17/2 placed +0.35pts
    Albero Di Giuda 12/1 placed +0.7pts
    Tamtara 11/4 win +2.75pts
    Arjemis 16/1 win +9.1pts
    Desert Kiss 9/2 win +4.5pts
    Fame And Glory 5/6 win +0.83pts
    Neebras 1/2 win +0.5pts
    King High 11/4 win +2.75

    -10.92pts for the day.

    These are estimate only, I calculated them all at 1/5 odds for a place and put a full point on the win if a place returned less than your stake and 0.5pts ew otherwise.

    EDIT: I didn't realise you were updating gradually, sorry.


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    #10
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Ya bastard I was just coming back to do the returns! :pac: (cheers!)


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    #11
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,032 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    Ya bastard I was just coming back to do the returns! :pac: (cheers!)

    Sound, just hurry up will ya!!! ;)


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    #12
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Results for Saturday

    52 runners 7 wins 8 placed

    Hadron Collider 4/5 placed
    Luigina Immacol 6/1 placed
    Jerrys Agent 7/1 placed
    Verdant 11/4 placed
    Pachattack 14/1 placed
    Haatheq 6/5 placed
    Forest Minx 8/1 placed
    Fear Nothing 15/8 placed
    Jawaab 5/1 placed win
    Lucky Quay 11/4 win
    Majestic Mayhem 9/4 win
    New Rules 4/6 win
    Engulf 5/4 win
    Lost In Paris 5/2 win
    Campeche Bay 14/1 win
    Rocky Wednesday 2/1 win

    L'prof, over to you!


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    #13
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Sunday results.

    36 runners 3 wins 6 placed 25 unplaced

    Sarobar 10/1 placed
    Rondeau 5/1 placed
    Mini Max 3/1 placed
    Sirjosh 5/1 placed
    Festival Dreams 11/2 placed
    Kijivu 9/2 placed

    Run Along Boy 15/2 win
    Blaze Brightly 9/2 win
    Silver Story 9/4 win


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    #14
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Mondays Reults

    37 runners 4 wins 10 placed 23 unplaced

    Ignatieff 8/1 placed
    Tut 14/1 placed
    El Batal 5/1 placed
    Emerald Ring 10/1 placed
    Blitzed 2/1 placed
    The Name Is Frank 11/2 placed
    Bendare Dundat 14/1 placed
    Golden Kite 12/1 placed
    Irish Soul 6/1 placed
    Eastern Light 5/2 placed

    Sonning Rose 1/1 win
    Dirar 11/2 win
    Gurtacrue 6/1 win
    Piazza San Piet R Havlin 6/1 win


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    #15
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,032 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    mike65 wrote: »
    L'prof, over to you!

    Nice try ;)


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    #16
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Tuedays results

    27 runners 2 win 5 placed 20 unplaced

    Bold Policy 9/1 placed
    Charlie Cool 7/2 placed
    Aleqa 12/1 placed
    Tension Point 5/1 placed
    With Hindsight 7/2 placed
    Danny Zuko 7/2 win
    Putney Bridge 10/11 win


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    #17
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Lucky number 4? That's one I hadn't heard of. The old ones are the best.

    Top Weight in a One Mile 3yr Old Handicap.

    The only horse in the race that was Beaten Fav last time out.

    The only Apprentice in a race.

    Hern on a Friday was good but he died.


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    #18
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Wednesdays results

    23 runners 3 wins 6 placed 14 unplaced

    Alhoni 14/1 placed
    Indian Skipper 5/1 placed
    Regeneration 5/2 placed
    Sierra Alpha 16/1 placed
    Flying Silks 11/4 placed
    Little Garcon 8/1 placed
    Royal Straight 15/8 win
    Soraaya 15/8 win
    Bonnie Brae 5/1 win


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    #19
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Thursdays Results

    52 runners 5 wins 13 placed 34 unplaced

    Dhaafer 12/1 placed
    Rare Ruby 9/4 placed
    Accidental Outl 7/2 placed
    Croisultan 11/1 placed
    Divine Call 4/6 placed
    Distinctive 6/1 placed
    Daggers Bond 7/2 placed
    Peqeno Diablo 13/2 placed
    Surenaga 14/1 placed
    Artic Rose 7/2 placed
    Synthe Davis 5/1 placed
    Kanad 14/1 placed
    Falkland Flyer 9/1 placed
    Ghufa 2/1 win
    King Raven 5/2 win
    Cold Mountain 14/1 win
    Bavarica 10/1 win
    Kathleen Frances 13/2 win


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    #20
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    There seems to be a strike rate of over 10%. If the average price is over 9/1 its a winner.


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    #21
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I'd say Thursday was just about break even

    Friday results

    43 runners 8 wins 6 placed 29 unplaced

    Knockraha Lad 20/1 placed
    Kikos 5/1 placed
    Misty Dancer 7/4 placed
    Romance Dance 33/1 placed
    Danzoe 7/1 placed
    Mayson 13/2 placed

    Salontyre 5/2 win
    Joe Packet 5/1 win
    Treble Jig 15/8 win
    Hear The Roar 9/1 win
    Diamond Duchess 11/2 win
    Hotham 18/1 win
    Deauville Flyer 6/1 win
    Chorizo 9/2 win


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    #22
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Saturdays results

    45 runners 1 wins 3 placed

    Ongoodform 9/2 placed
    Pyrus Time 11/1 placed
    City Ground 8/1 placed
    Gatamalata 16/1 placed
    Free Art 40/1 placed
    Purple Land 7/2 placed
    Sugar Baby Love 8/1 placed
    Poppanan 9/4 placed
    Lauberhorn 7/1 placed
    Silence Is Bliss 16/1 placed
    Racy 7/4 placed
    Soviet Secret 2/1 placed

    Micky P 5/2 win
    Seasonal Cross 9/1 win


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    #23
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Sundays Results

    33 runners 3 wins 9 placed 21 unplaced

    Heaven Forbid 17/2 placed
    Steel Free 10/1 placed
    Raptor 40/1 placed
    Joe Eile 1/1 placed
    Total Reality 4/1 placed
    Karasiyra 3/1 placed
    The Foxs Decree 9/2 placed
    Tampa Boy 17/2 placed
    Danimix 25/1 placed
    Super Say 2/5 win
    Formosina 4/11 win
    Billie Magern 3/1 win

    10% win rate again.


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    #24
    POINTBREAK
    Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    12 out of 12 placed? That's astonishing. Am I reading that right?


    Ah........ I wasn't reading it right


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    #25
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Saturdays should read -
    45 runners 2 wins 12 placed 32 unplaced

    Last day today I think we can see no advantage to just picking a number :p

    Mondays results

    26 runners 2 wins 3 placed 21 unplaced

    Fleetwoodsands 8/1 placed
    Wikaala 5/1 placed
    Night Knight 16/1 placed

    Ruby Isabel 5/6 win
    City Stable 10/3 win


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    #26
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    No doubt you know but in handicaps more #1s win than #4s :)


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