A new theory of atmospheric variation

M.T. Cranium

Actually, here is the thread, but I'm not sure if you can access it unless you're a member of net-weather, as it is now an archived and locked thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/47871-the-known-history-of-solar-activity/page__pid__1266234#entry1266234

As you'll see in this link, my name in the "real world" (is there one?) is Roger Smith, but I was born under the name of Peter O'Donnell, something I only learned in my twenties, so that apparent links to Ireland that were not known to me growing up (we moved to Canada when I was seven) came into my life rather unexpectedly. I retain some connections to my family back in the UK, but it has caused me to rethink my original concept of being English more towards being Irish born in England. Unfortunately I have not had the opportunity to learn much about that, and since my family relationships have actually been quite good, I have probably never had much of an urge to explore this past business ... but it is what it is, and I think it probably explains why I feel somewhat Irish despite only having been there once and for all of two weeks. The odd thing was, many of my friends prior to learning of this circumstance were Irish people living in Canada, so go figure. I have been writing in the past few years (fiction and opinion type writing that is) under my birth name. I understand that this surname has many associations with Donegal, so I will have to visit there next time, failed to do so before.

So anyway, a split personality with a deep interest in the metaphysical, nothing new here, move along ...

WolfeIRE

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

a split personality with a deep interest in the metaphysical...

standard Irish traits MT.

Don't worry if you don't have red hair, freckles, a fondness for alcohol and an irresistable urge to sing songs about the famine.

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

standard Irish traits MT.

Don't worry if you don't have red hair, freckles, a fondness for alcohol and an irresistable urge to sing songs about the famine.

:D

A tune to make M.T feel at home:

yeeooh!

M.T. Cranium

WolfeIRE wrote: »

standard Irish traits MT.

Don't worry if you don't have red hair, freckles, a fondness for alcohol and an irresistable urge to sing songs about the famine.

You mean it's okay if I'm not Scottish then?

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, DE, but that link and others like it, are blocked in my browser. I have no idea what's there. Can you provide a text link?

I also can't see 90% of the links in the weather-song thread. Are these all from the same source, and what source is that? Maybe we can figure out what to change in our settings here because I have the exact same problem on two or three other sites that I visit.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thanks, DE, but that link and others like it, are blocked in my browser. I have no idea what's there. Can you provide a text link?

I also can't see 90% of the links in the weather-song thread. Are these all from the same source, and what source is that? Maybe we can figure out what to change in our settings here because I have the exact same problem on two or three other sites that I visit.

That's pretty strange M.T. Don't worry, you're not missing out anyway with that video I posted, just some cliche leprechaun dancing around a fiddle with women stripping off and showing some skin by way of dance.

M.T. Cranium

Well if you could post a text link there or for example your most recent one in the song thread, I could get some idea what I'm up against with this type of link, because whatever it is don't work for me, I always get the same symbol in a blank rectangle but if I click on that or the rectangle, nothing.

If it's the only thing to start a discussion thread on some forum, it leaves me somewhat in the dark as to what they're on about, but I suppose that's nothing new.

Anyway, I hate all that hyper-Irish touristy stuff, never visited the Blarney stone when I was down that way. If you ever see an "Irish pub" over this way, you can be sure to be knee deep in marching jaunty leprechauns half hidden in fields of clover and the whole business, never saw a one even in Killarney.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well if you could post a text link there or for example your most recent one in the song thread, I could get some idea what I'm up against with this type of link, because whatever it is don't work for me, I always get the same symbol in a blank rectangle but if I click on that or the rectangle, nothing.

If it's the only thing to start a discussion thread on some forum, it leaves me somewhat in the dark as to what they're on about, but I suppose that's nothing new.

It could be a security setting, or a leprechaun, in your web browser that's blocking you. Are you using IE, Firefox or some other one?

M.T. Cranium

IE 8.0 ... yer probly right about the cause, it's maybe because I have not updated something like Javascript that's involved in this source. We're having a look at it later on. It might speed things up to learn what the source is for all these videos that I can't load. It's not universal to all videos, for example, I can load youtube no problem.

Good news ... I browsed in on firefox and can now see these videos. I guess the problem is that I upgraded IE but not Windows XP. This could be the start of

ATTENTION THIS IS BILL GATES YOU HAVE CONDUCTED AN ILLEGAL UPGRADE YOUR COMPUTER WILL NOW EXPLODE IN 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...

M.T. Cranium

Update -- today marks northern max for the Moon and also Mercury's inferior conjunction. Mercury moves west to east past the south pole of the Sun at this point in its orbit.

I will get back into a more detailed analysis of weather events in the later part of the autumn and winter, when there are more interesting events to follow. Hurricane Earl certainly fits the theory with a strong J-field warming on timing line one this past summer, and now that Mercury's moving through that sector, a lot of tropical storm activity near timing line one.

---

From the link to my sunspot research, this is the list assembled by Schove and extended to the more recent peaks, in raw form, showing intensity by position to the right of the margin.

..................290
........................302
...............311
...............321
.........330
.........342
.....................354
.....................362
........................372
...............387
...............396
.........410
.........421
..................430
..................441
.....................452
.........465
..................479
...............490
........................501
.....................511
.........522
.....................531
...............542
...............557
........................567
...............578
.....................585
............597
.........607
...............618
............628
...............642
..................654
...............665
.....................677
.........689
.........699
.....................714
.....................724
.........735
........................745
...............754
........................765
..................776
.........787
..................798
.....................809
.........821
.....................829
........................840
..................850
...............862
.....................872
...............887
.........898
.........907
...............917
........................926
..................938
............950
........................963
........................974
...............986
.........994
.....................1003
...............1016
...............1027
.........1038
......1052
...............1067
...............1078
...............1088
........................1098
............1110
........................1118
.....................1129
........................1138
.....................1151
............1160
..................1173
..................1185
...............1193
........................1202
...............1219
...............1228
...............1239
............1249
...............1259
...............1276
...............1288
.........1296
...............1308
...............1319
...............1324
.........1337
............1353
........................1362
...........................1372
..................1382
...............1391
...............1402
......1413
............1429
............1439
............1449
............1461
......1472
......1480
............1497
.........1505
...............1519
........................1528
.....................1539
.....................1548
........................1558
........................1572
.....................1581
............1591
............1604
...............1615
..................1629
............1639
......1649
......1660
.........1675
......1685
...1693
......1705
.....................1718
........................1727
.....................1738
...............1750
...............1761
..................1769
........................1778
........................1787
......1801
......1816
............1830
........................1837
.....................1848
..................1860
........................1870
.........1883
...............1893
.........1905
..................1917
...............1928
.....................1937
........................1947
...........................1957
..................1968
........................1979
........................1989
..................2001


You can read a detailed analysis in the link, but I wanted to show a new finding in addition, the second-order variation of solar cycle intensity with Jupiter's 11.86-year orbit. Jupiter returns to the same position every 83 years as well as every 11.86 years, so to construct this graph, I have combined all the data in 83-year cycles. When this record begins in 290 A.D., Jupiter was in EOD August (currently in EOD September), so I began the time series in 283 A.D. to place the start of this graph in EOD January. If more than one year falls in the same year of the 83-year cycle, the results are superimposed.

This is the combined 83-yr graph:

Year

01..................1860.1362/1528
02.........699..........1778
03
04............950.618.452
05...........1449.1615..1947
06........................1118
07.........787.........372/1202
08..................290
09.........1038........872
10...............1288
11...............542.1870/1787.1372
12......1705............1539
13
14............628
15.....................................1957
16
17........465/1461.1129/714.963
18.........1296.....798
19..................1629
20........................302
21..................1382/1548
22...............387
23......1052
24.........1883.887/1219
25......1801........1718
26...............557.1968.1138
27.....................724
28......1472.....642...974
29...........1639.311.809
30...............1308/1391
31...............396.479/1558
32
33...............1228
34...............1893...1727
35.........898
36......1480..............567
37........................1979
38.........735.1067
39......1649.....321/1151
40......1816....986.654
41.........821.1319/1402
42...............490
43
44.........907..1239
45.........410......1738.1572
46.........1905.1324
47...............578...1989
48......994.330/1160.....745
49...............1078.829
50......1660
51...............665
52......1413
53............1497........501
54......1830/1249.917/1581.585
55
56.........421
57............1750/754.1003
58..................1917
59.........1337/2001.1088
60.........342..........840
61.........1505.....1173/1837
62
63....................511/677.926
64...........15911259
65.......1675.......430
66............597
67
68...........1429/1761........765
69...............1928...1098
70..............1016/850
71
72.....................354,1848
73..................1185
74.........522
75..1685.689.1353/1519.938
76.........607...1769.441
77............1604
78............1439...1937
79..................776
80.....................362
81........1110/1193/1276.1027
82...............862
83...1693..........531

This graph then condenses to show the distribution of solar max data for the 12-year Jupiter cycle. The order in which these are shown depends on the date of Jupiter opposition, starting with year 1 (mid-Jan) and working through the year.

01..................1860.1362/1528
13
25......1801........1718
37........................1979
49...............1078.829
61.........1505.....1173/1837
73..................1185
02.........699..........1778
14............628
26...............557.1968.1138
38.........735.1067
50......1660
62
74.........522
03
15.....................................1957
27.....................724
39......1649.....321/1151
51...............665
63....................511/677.926
75..1685.689.1353/1519.938
04............950.618.452
16
28......1472.....642...974
40......1816....986.654
52......1413
64...........15911259
76.........607...1769.441
05...........1449.1615..1947
17........465/1461.1129/714.963
29...........1639.311.809
41.........821.1319/1402
53............1497........501
65.......1675.......430
77............1604
06........................1118
18.........1296.....798
30...............1308/1391
42...............490
54......1830/1249.917/1581.585
66............597
78............1439...1937
07.........787.........372/1202
19..................1629
31...............396.479/1558
43
55
67
79..................776
08..................290
20........................302
32
44.........907..1239
56.........421
68...........1429/1761........765
80.....................362
09.........1038........872
21..................1382/1548
33...............1228
45.........410......1738.1572
57............1750/754.1003
69...............1928...1098
81........1110/1193/1276.1027
10...............1288
22...............387
34...............1893...1727
46.........1905.1324
58..................1917
70..............1016/850
82...............862
11...............542.1870/1787.1372
23......1052
35.........898
47...............578...1989
59.........1337/2001.1088
71
83...1693..........531
12......1705............1539
24.........1883.887/1219
36......1480..............567
48......994.330/1160.....745
60.........342..........840
72.....................354,1848


Looking at this combined data, it is easy to spot two segments of Jupiter's 12-year orbit where solar activity seems unusually low. The first of these weak periods occurs around years 38,50,62,74,03 when oppositions are in late February and early March (meaning Jupiter is in EOD March most of the year) and this is where Jupiter is at its highest point relative to the ecliptic plane. A second weakness occurs when Jupiter is in years 43, 55, 67, 79 and to some extent continues to 8, 20, 32, 44, 56 before activity picks up again. These are years where Jupiter is near its present position in EOD August and early September. This span is not quite opposite the "high" years but Jupiter is heading towards its lowest orbital latitude relative to the ecliptic. There is some indication here that an earth-Jupiter interaction is part of the generation of the solar cycle -- at these weaker times, the earth might miss the central portions of the J-field sectors due to the inclination differences.

The general look of the rest of the 12-year period is that solar activity is distributed rather more or less at random through the Jupiter orbital cycle.

I'm thinking about researching this aspect further in connection with all the other cycles uncovered.

M.T. Cranium

Two minor points that I should add here for anyone wading through this Jupiter-sunspot connection.

First of all, something about calendar dates. The 83-year return of Jupiter to a similar position relative to the Sun is almost exact, it wanders so slightly that it would take many centuries to have to introduce a leap period. But the calendar between the start of this data (290 AD) and the modern era has been adjusted (the Julian calendar became the Gregorian). An approximation is to say that by 290 AD the calendar was two days slow compared to modern time for setting the seasons and therefore the earth's tilt. But this increased to 11-12 days by the Maunder, so what we are comparing in these charts would be Gregorian time for Jupiter's orbital position, if you were to look up every 83 years after 290 AD you would find the oppositions moving forward about a day a century. This introduces no real changes to the analysis but might confuse anyone looking to verify my organization of the data.

A more significant qualification is that the earth's orbit precesses over 26,000 years and so taking the 290 AD opposition as an example, while the date is similar to 1950, the background sky has precessed back almost a full month. Since Jupiter's orbital inclination has not varied significantly, that means that the two "weak areas" in the data actually sample a slowly moving range of inclinations, not a fixed range. Taking the series 290 ... 1950 ... well on into the future, by about the 7th or 8th millenium late August and early September (the timing of these Jupiter oppositions) will be occurring with the planet Jupiter crossing the southern max portion of the galactic equator. Hence the years where Jupiter oppositions will be similar to 1950 in orbital inclination terms will be January oppositions by then. This range could be studied in more detail even within the data available, but the general concept would be to shift the older dates down in the table about five or six places, the intermediate dates about three, etc. I am going to reconstruct that table on that basis and see what difference it makes to the distributions. But from a casual inspection I doubt that it will reduce the effect, it might sharpen it up somewhat.

M.T. Cranium

The recalibrated Jupiter-sunspot max chart, with older dates shifted down to maintain similar orbital inclination ... the procedure used is to shift 3rd-5th century dates down five places, 6th-8th four, etc, leaving dates from 1700 to present in their original places. This will better compare the situation of the earth's passage through J-fields due to varying inclinations. Rather than repeating all the years, I simplify this further by listing the number of cases and placing the number as far to the right as the most intense of those cases.

01................................3
13...........................3
25........................5
37............................1
49...............1
61............................1
73
02.............................5
14.......................1
26....................1
38
50................2
62...............2
74.............2
03...............1
15..........................................1
27
39
51.........1
63....................1
75
04
16..................4
28.......................3
40.......................4
52.............1
64.................3
76.....................4
05...........................3
17.....................2
29...............1
41.................3
53....................3
65......................5
77............2
06..........1
18.........1
30...............1
42...............2
54.................3
66................2
78.......................2
07...................2
19...................2
31.......................3
43..............1
55............1
67............1
79
08.............1
20
32..............1
44...............1
56
68.......................2
80.....................3
09
21
33...............................4
45.............................3
57.......................4
69.....................1
81
10...............2
22....................5
34..........................4
46.............1
58..................1
70..............1
82..............1
11.......................2
23.........2
35.........2
47.......................1
59.......................3
71.............1
83............1
12.......................5
24....................2
36
48......................3
60...............1
72.........................2

This is further simplified below by grouping the frequency without reference to intensity, by seven-case intervals approximating Jupiter's mid-year position in the EOD year (hence the monthly titles) ... due to Jupiter's faster motion in EOD Sept-Oct, the ninth of these drops one set.

JAN .............. 14
FEB ............. 13
MAR .... 04
APR ................... 19
MAY ................... 19
JUN ............ 12
JUL .......... 10
AUG ........ 8
SEP ............ 12
OCT .............. 14
NOV ............ 12
DEC .............. 14

This shows clearly the two drops in solar activity associated with Jupiter's orbit near its high and low latitude extremes (more to the point, near the earth's low and high variance from the solar system orbital plane which is pretty much defined by Jupiter's orbital plane with Saturn a weak second-order variant (in the same longitudes but over a 29.5 year cycle).

The autumn EOD case is not as weak, probably because Jupiter is then closer to the Sun and so its field sectors would be more intense, harder to miss by the earth. Perihelion occurs near the boundary of the SEP and OCT cases here.

The 1957-58 sunspot maximum is therefore even more unusual as it came near the weakest part of Jupiter's cycle. I would note for a possible explanation, that Saturn was much closer to the earth's orbital plane at that point and may have been able to shift the gravitational balance for the J-fields down towards our orbital plane in that case. It also appears that the Sun was in a long-term very active phase meaning that perhaps the intensity of field sectors was stronger than usual throughout.

M.T. Cranium

An update on the lunar events that are associated with these strong weather events:

Sept 2010

07.... 11z RC, 20z MeC (occ)
08.... 1030z new moon (with perigee at 04z)
09.... 22z SC
10.... 15z JO
11.... 06z SpC + 08z MaC + VC 13z (occ)

This current event is mainly the twinned RC+new with that strong little burst of MeC, and I've been watching the three energy waves crossing timing line three. The strength of this disturbance is probably enhanced by recent retrograde activity which has left a rebounding jet stream to the west of Ireland. The next event timed for Friday 10th has a leading wave, a main event and three strong tag-along secondaries, so that should determine the general shaping of the complex disturbance as it crosses various timing lines.

Can report that tonight (local time) the new moon event crossing timing line one is a strong one also with severe thunderstorm potential for the Toronto to Cleveland areas. With eastern time being five hours behind GMT, the time of the new moon is 0630 EDT and 0330 PDT. We are clearing here from our event heading for downstream timing line 9.

Who knew?

I've also noticed over a lifetime that rainbows seem to be especially frequent around new moon. I wonder if there's some optical effect that is enhanced and if the double rainbow phenomenon has anything to do with sun and moon? Not something I have researched as the physics of rainbows is not a subject I ever studied in much depth.