TC PHET

billy the squid

In the arabian sea

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/na201003.html

More here

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/06/02/stories/2010060251921700.htm

Su Campu

Latest forecast has this heading straight for Oman as a Cat 5 hurricane tomorrow, with winds up to 155mph. The Oman Met Service website is absolute muck so not much info to be had from it, but this will be stronger than Katrina was when she hit. Luckily the target area is away from major urban centres.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201003A.html

Su Campu

Phet is currently just off the coast of southeastern Oman. The nearest station is Masirah, which is currently reporting 42mph winds and heavy rain. Much of the Arabian peninsula has been affected by blowing dust as strong easterly winds ahead of the hurricane upset the usual seabreeze regime.

Latest forecast is a little to the right of earlier, with it brushing the southeast coast tonight with as a 90kt system.

Su Campu

Masirah Island 18UTC reporting sustained wind of northwesterly 64kts (74mph), 58mm of rain in 18hrs, pressure 984hPa. Storm now passing to its east.

AAXX 03184 41288 06/// /3364 10256 20/// 39814 49838 60221
333 0E026 10284 59196 70380

Next interesting report will be from Ras al Hadd later tonight, on the extreme east coast, which has reported 66mm of rain in 6hrs since 12UTC. Wind currently northeasterly 26knots.

AAXX 03184 41270 06/13 /0426 10257 20254 39948 40010 60661
333 0E027 10273 59053 70804=

Su Campu

Oman 24hr rainfall totals up to 21Z

24 hours amount precipitation. 06/03/2010 at 21:00 UTC


1 Ras Al Hadd (Oman) 117.2 mm
2 Masirah (Oman) 110.0 mm
3 Qalhat (Oman) 69.0 mm
4 Sur (Oman) 63.4 mm
5 Joba (Oman) 31.0 mm
6 Duqm (Oman) 4.4 mm
7 Ibra (Oman) 2.6 mm
8 Jabal Shams (Oman) 1.6 mm
9 Yaaloni (Oman) 1.0 mm

Looks like the anenometer in Masirah is knackered as it gave no reading at 21Z. Ras al Hadd reporting easterly 22kts.

And it's amazing how history can repeat itself. Two years ago, almost to the day, the very same area was getting hit by its strongest storm ever, Cyclone Gonu, which killed 50 people and caused $4.2Bn in damage, dumping 610mm of rain. This went down as Oman's worst natural disaster in history. It then went on to kill 28 people in Iran.

Su Campu

24hr rainfall totals to 06UTC. Remember, this is a desert :eek:

1 Qalhat (Oman) 303.6 mm
2 Ras Al Hadd (Oman) 258.4 mm
3 Jabal Shams (Oman) 236.8 mm
4 Sur (Oman) 218.2 mm
5 Masirah (Oman) 176.6 mm
6 Joba (Oman) 104.8 mm
7 Ibra (Oman) 23.2 mm
8 Rustaq (Oman) 21.4 mm
9 Seeb, International Airport (Oman) 17.6 mm
10 Duqm (Oman) 9.2 mm
11 Samail (Oman) 9.0 mm
12 Qaboos Port (Oman) 8.0 mm
13 Yaaloni (Oman) 3.0 mm
14 Nizwa (Oman) 1.4 mm
15 Bahla (Oman) 1.0 mm

Trogdor

Wow that's a lot of rain for 24 hours, must be more than the average annual rainfall for Qalhat! Any idea what winds speeds are like at those stations?
I can't find much data for the area:o

Su Campu

trogdor wrote: »

Wow that's a lot of rain for 24 hours, must be more than the average annual rainfall for Qalhat! Any idea what winds speeds are like at those stations?
I can't find much data for the area:o

The best source is Ogimet, which gives the 3-hourly syop reports, plus 24hr summaries, etc. such as this. Clicking on a station gives the original coded reports, and looking at the wind group (see example below) gives an idea. As I said above, Masirah stopped reporting windspeeds after the 64kt winds last night, and other stations aren't showing winds that high, so the system is winding down, but still dumping a whole load of rain.

[SIZE=-1]AAXX 04064[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]41267 05/23 /0827 10254 20241 39925 49940 60241 333 0E024 20241 59124 71668=[/SIZE]

Wind 080° 27 knots

Sponge Bob

Gonna strike Pakistan soon but will probably miss Karachi and hit further west.

Su Campu

Pakistan getting drenched....

http://pakmet.com.pk/mon&tc/Tcyclone.pdf

Cyclone Warning No. 12, 5 June 2100PST

Tropical Cyclone “PHET” in North Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone has moved eastwards in last six hours along Makran coast and now
located at 24°N – 62.2°E south of Pasni about 325 Km from Karachi. The system is likely to
move eastwards during next 12 hours, expected to weaken before making landfall some
where near Karachi on Sunday (with maximum sustained winds 60 – 80 Km/hour
gusting to 100 Km/hour) with associated storm surge of 2 – 4 meters.

Under the influence of this system, extremely heavy rainfall is occurring over
coastal areas of Balochistan (Gawadar 370 mm, Jiwani 208 mm, Pasni 139 mm, Turbat
63 mm, Ormara 60 mm) accompanied with very strong wind gusting to 120 Km/hour.
More rains heavy to very heavy accompanied with strong gusty winds are expected in
Balochistan especially in its coastal areas during the next 24 hours. Sindh is also expected to
receive widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall during next 2 days starting from Saturday
night and gradually increasing afterwards. Heavy rains may cause urban / flash flooding in
Balochistan and Sindh including Karachi.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre of Pakistan Meteorological Department has
warned that the fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan should not venture in open sea till
further orders. Irrigation authorities in Sindh and Balochistan are requested to reduce inflow
in irrigation system.