Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

nacho libre

just had a thundery downpour - no thunder or lightning, though.

Deep Easterly

Still the odd barely detectable rumble here. Seems to be more development starting about 10 miles east but tone of light makes it hard to see.

maquiladora

Looks like some stuff starting to pop up in the midlands nows on the sat loop.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like some stuff starting to pop up in the midlands nows on the sat loop.

Yep. It's a real nuisance when that sat stops animating.




Really impressive sferic concentration contained within that front over Europe now!

Deep Easterly

Has gone very dark here once again with a portentous calm. Insane looking and expansive white shafts developing to my SE.

Edit: sparodic heavy bursts. Start/stop jobs.

Iancar29

nacho libre wrote: »

just had a thundery downpour - no thunder or lightning, though.

Haha, ....SO it was just a downpour then?

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Haha, ....SO it was just a downpour then?

He most likely means intensity.

Tomorrow night's shortwave feature, as mention by Su earlier, as projected by the latest DMI run:



most models have it running along the same lines, with convective type showers developing and following closely behind as it pulls away NE'wards.

Sierra Oscar

Gone very dark here now in the last ten minutes alone.

Iancar29

Deep Easterly wrote: »

He most likely means intensity.


I know ye.... Was just funny.

So do u think we'll get anything 2moro here in Dublin?

I keep saying to myself its still not hot enough out for anything good, but i want to be wrong!

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Iancar29 wrote: »

He most likely means intensity.


I know ye.... Was just funny.

So do u think we'll get anything 2moro here in Dublin?

I keep saying to myself its still not hot enough out for anything good, but i want to be wrong!

It's a hard one to call for tomorrow. Personally I am not convinced that tomorrow will bring anything special but with a slack trough hovering over the country then anything is possible. East certainly has a better chance tomorrow for some thunder.

redsteveireland

Surrounded by promising black skys in Galway city now. No sign of any of the good stuff though.:mad:

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Iancar29 wrote: »

It's a hard one to call for tomorrow. Personally I am not convinced that tomorrow will bring anything special but with a slack trough hovering over the country then anything is possible. East certainly has a better chance tomorrow for some thunder.

I think tomorrow we have a better chance of more widespread activity in the afternoon and evening. Today we had very little upper dynamic support, and the activity in the west was a result of surface heating in the southeasterly flow. Most of this activity will die out after dark as this forcing diminishes.

Tomorrow, however, the upper shortwave trof will give a boost to both get convection going and also to sustain it, even after dark, so there will not be the reliance on pure surface heating for development. The chart I posted above shows an area of enhanced positive vorticity advection (red area) in the southern half of the country, so while the upper temperatures will be similar to today's, this PVA will cause mass uplift, and consequent convergence at lower levels. With surface mositure remaining from today's precipitation, CAPE values will most likely be higher than today's too, adding fuel to the fire!

Well that's how I see it anyway. I just hope I get to see some action!

torrentum

+1! Su Campu. I find fronts approaching from the SE at this time of the year usually very dependable, especially when they're not depending on surface heating.

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

I think tomorrow we have a better chance of more widespread activity in the afternoon and evening. Today we had very little upper dynamic support, and the activity in the west was a result of surface heating in the southeasterly flow. Most of this activity will die out after dark as this forcing diminishes.

Tomorrow, however, the upper shortwave trof will give a boost to both get convection going and also to sustain it, even after dark, so there will not be the reliance on pure surface heating for development. The chart I posted above shows an area of enhanced positive vorticity advection (red area) in the southern half of the country, so while the upper temperatures will be similar to today's, this PVA will cause mass uplift, and consequent convergence at lower levels. With surface mositure remaining from today's precipitation, CAPE values will most likely be higher than today's too, adding fuel to the fire!

Well that's how I see it anyway. I just hope I get to see some action!

You most likely will given the forecast pattern. A nice SW flow of the bay here tomorrow though which will most likely kill any chance I have of seeing something.

Timistry

A few towers popping up here now at the moment. There is a line of them going down the spine of the Caha mountains in the distance with dark menacing clouds overhead. Its some sight, the contrast between sky blue, white and dark grey.:D

Deep Easterly

No reports of thunder at any of the met stations on the 7pm update:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Belmullet seems to have faired best today with 4hrs of reported thunder. Spitting light rain here for the last hour, so light it has yet to tip the bucket since 7pm.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

No reports of thunder at any of the met stations on the 7pm update:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Belmullet seems to have faired best today with 4hrs of reported thunder. Spitting light rain here for the last hour, so light it has yet to tip the bucket since 7pm.

There was a report of Recent Thunder at Knock Airport between 17:30 and 18:00 local time

[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EIKN 141700Z 10007KT 070V140 3000 -SHRA SCT008 BKN018CB BKN028 14/14 Q0993 RETS NOSIG[/FONT]

The 21OWS aviation chart has isolated thunderstorms for all of Ireland tomorrow evening, max cloud tops 35,000ft.

Deep Easterly

Latest ECMWF 'biggin up' tomorrow night's "Su wave' threat for the east:

rhonin

Very heavy showers here for the last two hours. No thunder but its gone very dark again now.

Oscar Bravo

"There was a report of Recent Thunder at Knock Airport between 17:30 and 18:00 local time"-correct.Heard the Bmi Baby crew saying they would rather a 09 approach as there was a thunderstorm on the approach to 27.

ian_m

What were/are the chances of a big thunderstorm developing? Is it possible for all of the clouds to converge into one super storm? Like the big storm we had in the early eighties?

lord lucan

All this talk of Thunder & Lightning has reminded me of a video i took on my phone in September '06. It was pissing down and i managed to get a shot of fork lightning. I'll see if i have it on my external hard drive and upload it to YouTube.

ian_m

lord lucan wrote: »

All this talk of Thunder & Lightning has reminded me of a video i took on my phone in September '06. It was pissing down and i managed to get a shot of fork lightning. I'll see if i have it on my external hard drive and upload it to YouTube.

Do that. We just don't get enough of it here.

lord lucan

That was a pretty fast upload. Pic quality isn't brilliant but you get the idea. Lightning at 1.15 mark followed by a rumble of thunder.:)

Rougies

Most of you have already seen this, but I'll post again anyway as a taster for tomorrow night It's just one of the strikes from the epic thunderstorm in Dublin last summer. Dublin Airport recorded over 50mm of rain in one hour that night. I was up late that night and was lucky to witness the madness (not my video though).

Congrats to all that some some storm action today, I was a bit jealous but the lovely weather made up for it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAjmPlnGaAY

pauldry

rhonin wrote: »

Very heavy showers here for the last two hours. No thunder but its gone very dark again now.

Crikeey Aye! There was a bolt of fork lightning that went to the left of my car 2kms outside a swimming ballymote. Then 20mms of rain today in my back yard in Sligo. Nice round number for a change. Not as High as Saturdays 36mm but impressive nonetheless. So on Saturday we had about as much rain as we got in MAy and today wev had as much as we got in June.

plein de force

Rougies wrote: »

Most of you have already seen this, but I'll post again anyway as a taster for tomorrow night It's just one of the strikes from the epic thunderstorm in Dublin last summer. Dublin Airport recorded over 50mm of rain in one hour that night. I was up late that night and was lucky to witness the madness (not my video though).

Congrats to all that some some storm action today, I was a bit jealous but the lovely weather made up for it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAjmPlnGaAY

even if you hadn't been up, that thunderstorm did the work of 100 alarm clocks. I remember being woken from a massive rumble that shook the house, i didn't go to sleep after that, Me and the boyfriend sat up in the bed looking out at the light show for the rest of the night

Redsunset

Wow had not seen that.
Here's a still from it where night became day for a split second.

darkman2

ECM has some great potential for torrential rain tomorrow night in the East and probrably thunderstorms




GFS is a bit more benign though so not set in stone yet.

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

ECM has some great potential for torrential rain tomorrow night in the East and probrably thunderstorms


GFS is a bit more benign though so not set in stone yet.

Latest DMI has it just clipping the coast once again. Very unpredictable feature so defo a nowcast situation. Either way, what seems to be slightly more constant feature on the models is for heavy showers to break out on around this wave's western edge and possibly intensifying into tomorrow night as cooler air sets from the NW.

All just theory at this stage though.