Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

Su Campu

ESTOFEX have just released their forecast and it's not too good, except for the extreme southeast.

The Chanel region and southern British Isles

Another short-wave trough yields a frontal wave across the Atlantic that travels into the British Isles on Thursday. Expect neutral lapse rates and rich low-level moisture in the warm air advection regime, some CAPE might build in response to diurnal heating. Latest model output does not indicate instability due to the warm air aloft and rather weak pre-frontal low-level moisture. However, at least a weak chance is present when the moisture increases from the west.

Along the occlusion of the wave that moves into the British Isles in the evening hours, a few embedded storms could develop. Given very strong low-level vertical wind shear in excess of 20 m/s in the lowest kilometre, tornadoes are not ruled out completely, and even strong tornadoes may be possible. Given the lack of instability predicted by the models, no level is given at this time.

delw

Rougies wrote: »

Most of you have already seen this, but I'll post again anyway as a taster for tomorrow night It's just one of the strikes from the epic thunderstorm in Dublin last summer. Dublin Airport recorded over 50mm of rain in one hour that night. I was up late that night and was lucky to witness the madness (not my video though).

i was on way in2 work at dublin airport at half 4 that morning,never seen rain like it,serious flooding on n32&m1,work place flooded when i eventually got to work

maquiladora

Looks like one of those rare times when Waterford might get clipped with some of that thunderstorm potential. I'll let ye know if anything pops up down here tonight!

owenc

We are for getting really heavy rain here tonight and there will be thunder.

torrentum

owenc wrote: »

We are for getting really heavy rain here tonight and there will be thunder.

I like your optimism!!! I've got my fingers crossed and camera fully charged for lightning pics

DOCARCH

Cbs now being reported at Dublin, Cork and Shannon.

Nice bit of sun here now - hope that gets the ground warmed up for action!

WolfeIRE

more on those french and german cells from last evening -

Western Europe's second summer storm this week spawned a series of tornadoes and killed three people, police said Thursday as authorities began cleaning up the debris.The storm crossed France and southern Germany late Wednesday following a heatwave lasting several days.A German hunter was killed by a falling tree near the city of Kassel, a 38-year-old French camper was killed by another tree fall near the city of Lyons and a Dutchman was killed in the mayhem as a tornado swept through a camping ground near the city of Arnhem.At least eight other people were injured as the Arnhem tornado flipped parked caravans upside down.Germany's tornado damage included 30 houses which lost most of their roof tiles in Losheim near the French border, police said.At nearby Mainz, a roof lifted off a house in one piece, flew over the next-door home and hit a third building. The high winds also stripped 300 square metres of roofing from a nearby supermarket.The lightning and squalls delayed takeoffs and landings at Frankfurt international airport in Germany late Wednesday.

owenc

torrentum wrote: »

I like your optimism!!! I've got my fingers crossed and camera fully charged for lightning pics

Naw its only for here tonight sorry!!

darkman2

Latest ECM for tonight





Once you see the purples your in a spot of bother;)

ian_m

Nice cloud formations over north county Dublin and into Meath at the moment.

Hells Belle

darkman2 wrote: »

Latest ECM for tonight

Once you see the purples your in a spot of bother;)

Ye are freaking the head off me lads, had a little read through and saw Tornados in the warning, eh should I be worried? I'm slap bang in the middle of that :eek:

owenc

Hells Belle wrote: »

Ye are freaking the head off me lads, had a little read through and saw Tornados in the warning, eh should I be worried? I'm slap bang in the middle of that :eek:

Don't worry theres a front coming over me tonight, i'll get the worst.:P

maquiladora

06Z GFS shows potential for thunderstorms for the SW, S and SE this evening/tonight.

BEASTERLY

owenc wrote: »

Naw its only for here tonight sorry!!

According to GFS your area has zero chance of thunder tonight , slight risk this afternoon though.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS shows potential for thunderstorms for the SW, S and SE this evening/tonight.

Hopefully , but i'd say the risk is small , i think it's time to look further ahead for storm risk , watched that storm in germany/france yesterday on Meteox , looked amazing!

Hells Belle

I really wish I hadn't watched that doco on Tornados last night. I suppose we are due a bit of freaky weather here in the SE instead of the bland soupy stuff we normally get. Only worry is I'm on the top of an exposed hill....at least I'll see it coming

snowjon

Flash warning for heavy thundery showers in Northern Ireland this afternoon. In fact, a shower formed right overhead here at about 10am with tropical style rain! :

Heavy thundery showers this afternoon are expected to give accumulations of 15mm within a 3 hour period, with isolated accumulations through the afternoon and evening possibly as high as 50mm.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com (operational hours 07.00 to 21.00 Mon to Fri and 09:00 to17:00 on Saturdays) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1156 Thu 15 Jul

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

cian1500ww

Very warm here all morning, must have been around 20c, cloud's starting to build up and temp is slowly dropping, chance of a thunderstorm ??

WolfeIRE

There will be widespread showers today, some prolonged, heavy and possibly thundery. The showers could lead to localized flooding. Top temperatures between 16 and 20 degrees.
Tonight

Further showers or longer spells of thundery rain overnight, heaviest over Ulster and much of Leinster with some local flash flooding. Lowest temperatures 10 to 12 degrees, in a freshening northwesterly breeze.

maquiladora

I'm still hopeful that MT's forecast of "By afternoon, some severe storms could develop especially in the central to southeast counties" comes true, but I don't like the look of the clouds coming in from the SW on the sat loop and latest Met Eireann graphic doesn't show thunder showers for the SE....

maquiladora

The heavy precip south of Ireland at the moment is futher north and east than what the 06Z GFS shows for this time.

owenc

BEASTERLY wrote: »

According to GFS your area has zero chance of thunder tonight , slight risk this afternoon though.

snowjon wrote: »

Flash warning for heavy thundery showers in Northern Ireland this afternoon. In fact, a shower formed right overhead here at about 10am with tropical style rain! :

Heavy thundery showers this afternoon are expected to give accumulations of 15mm within a 3 hour period, with isolated accumulations through the afternoon and evening possibly as high as 50mm.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com (operational hours 07.00 to 21.00 Mon to Fri and 09:00 to17:00 on Saturdays) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1156 Thu 15 Jul

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

Not according to that.

maquiladora

Couple of strikes showing up in the NW on Meteox on that line thats forming.

owenc

maquiladora wrote: »

Couple of strikes showing up in the NW on Meteox on that line thats forming.

NE has more.:P

owenc

Ugh the sun has come out now and the rain has cleared! For FRIGG SAKE!

maquiladora

owenc wrote: »

Ugh the sun has come out now and the rain has cleared! For FRIGG SAKE!

Thats a good thing if you want a thunderstorm. Sun = heating. Convention will build up those cumulonimbus.

BEASTERLY

owenc wrote: »

Not according to that.

I meant tonight , you will get the heaviest rain though , central areas of northern ireland have better chance of storms than anywhere today , but not the far north coast i.e coleraine. That's what GFS says , it may be wrong but my bet is that you will not see any thunder today , neither will I.

Anybody in Tyrone , Cavan/Monaghan are in for a shout I say, already a few strikes up there.

CrackisWhack

maquiladora wrote: »

Couple of strikes showing up in the NW on Meteox on that line thats forming.

where can you see the lightning strikes on that website?

ian_m

CrackisWhack wrote: »

where can you see the lightning strikes on that website?

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

owenc

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I meant tonight , you will get the heaviest rain though , central areas of northern ireland have better chance of storms than anywhere today , but not the far north coast i.e coleraine. That's what GFS says , it may be wrong but my bet is that you will not see any thunder today , neither will I.

Anybody in Tyrone , Cavan/Monaghan are in for a shout I say, already a few strikes up there.

Actully the strikes were in ballymoney just 10 miles south of me.