Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

BEASTERLY

owenc wrote: »

Actully the strikes were in ballymoney just 10 miles south of me.

Did you hear/witness these strikes , if not i doubt they were only ten miles from you , usually you can here from alot further away than that. Where did you get those reports of strikes?

Not

Thunder is rumbling in south Meath ATM

edit : and thudding !

snaps

Some nice action coming up from the SE!

owenc

snaps wrote: »

Some nice action coming up from the SE!

Thats going to england.:mad:

WolfeIRE

snaps wrote: »

Some nice action coming up from the SE!

That may clip SE but the bulk of it is heading over Cornwall I think

owenc

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Did you hear/witness these strikes , if not i doubt they were only ten miles from you , usually you can here from alot further away than that. Where did you get those reports of strikes?

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

snaps

Possibly, more like Wales!!!

M.T. Cranium

The feature to watch is the upper level low racing in from the southwest, this will tend to destabilize the atmosphere over the dry slot between the showers in the north central counties and the blob of moderate rain over the sea near southwest Wales. Some of that moisture will be pulled into the circulation as it approaches then some heavy showers and thunderstorms could develop by late afternoon and evening. By about midnight this upper level low feature will be near Dublin heading northeast at about 40 knots.

This action should start to develop around 4 p.m. (will update around then).

maquiladora

Strike picked up around south Tipp area :

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

Strike picked up around south Tipp area :

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Nothing up here in North Tipp yet anyway.

Sky does look a little disturbed in anycase.

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

Strike picked up around south Tipp area :

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

That's an old one from this morning.

maquiladora

DOCARCH wrote: »

That's an old one from this morning.

Really? Could have sworn it wasn't there before I refreshed it. Oh well

Iancar29

That front is starting to pass of to the South now , too bad its not coming up this way. Sure does like it could carry a few rumbles within it.




OH ye .... NO SHANNON RADAR FOR US FOR AWHILE

delw

a few strikes goin in NW

BEASTERLY

owenc wrote: »

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

Most of those lightning detectors have inaccuarcy of 45-75 km , good for showing what area storms are devloping in tough , most strikes are in the band of showers going from Mayo-Dundalk , alot aswell. Looks like the closest strike to coleraine so far looks like was over lough neagh, did anybody in that area you mentioned actually witness the strikes? They are getting closer to you though.

MT , do you think I might have a chance here in the SE or is it just more inland countys?

lucernarian

It's been quite a day for rain showers here. The heaviest (and latest) one was phenomenal, I lost all satellite channels on an 80cm dish! There was 3 lightning strikes associated with that one.



Are there any lightning detectors based in Ireland anymore? The european and icelandic ones are hard to read, and they don't have the locations of any Irish based lightning detectors on them.

I thought there was a website or two with lightning detectors based on this island...

Mr Benevolent

I doubt there'll be anything tonight, most of Ireland's TS forecasts are wishful thinking.

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

MT , do you think I might have a chance here in the SE or is it just more inland countys?

The 06Z GFS had some favorable CAPE just off the SE coast tonight, not as good as what is up North now though.

darkman2

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The feature to watch is the upper level low racing in from the southwest, this will tend to destabilize the atmosphere over the dry slot between the showers in the north central counties and the blob of moderate rain over the sea near southwest Wales. Some of that moisture will be pulled into the circulation as it approaches then some heavy showers and thunderstorms could develop by late afternoon and evening. By about midnight this upper level low feature will be near Dublin heading northeast at about 40 knots.

This action should start to develop around 4 p.m. (will update around then).

Certainly hope so. Does not seem to have the spark just yet but judging by the precip models (GFS excepted) some heavy or torrential rain is forecast tonight in the midlands, east and north.

maquiladora

Some serious precip due to come up from the SW

darkman2

That feature to me looks quite a bit further North then the UKMO (and by proxy BBC weather charts) had progged. Looks more in line with the ECM so far regarding the track.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Some serious precip due to come up from the SW

Jaysus, havent seen one like that in awhile... I WANT TAT TO COME UP TO DUBLIN AND EXPLODE! ha.

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

That feature to me looks quite a bit further North then the UKMO (and by proxy BBC weather charts) had progged. Looks more in line with the ECM so far regarding the track.

Yep further north than the 06Z GFS too.

darkman2

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep further north than the 06Z GFS too.

Here it is on the ECM at midnight which I think has it merging with another trough from the West. Fits the track so far...one to watch.




I think Met Eireann should have warnings for local flash flooding even at this stage

Thomas828

The lightning detector I have at home is my radio and it lets me know if there's lightning between here in London and Ireland. I heard plenty of crackling yesterday afternoon listening to RTE Radio 1 on long wave.

M.T. Cranium

Posted an update on the forecast thread, looks like this activity in the south is expanding fairly rapidly and may become more intense through the evening hours. We'll see how it goes from here as the upper level low catches up, could get more thundery as a result.

km79

is it going to be country wide or mainly east and north east?

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

is it going to be country wide or mainly east and north east?

This gives a rough idea of the area that could see activity

http://estofex.org/forecasts/tempmap/2010071606_201007142305_1_stormforecast.xml.png

Iancar29

Thomas828 wrote: »

The lightning detector I have at home is my radio and it lets me know if there's lightning between here in London and Ireland. I heard plenty of crackling yesterday afternoon listening to RTE Radio 1 on long wave.

Ah thats a good idea. What station is it on LW ?

maquiladora

12Z GFS is a downgrade for CAPE and precip intensity for this evening.

But I guess it's more of a nowcast than anything else at this stage.