Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

maquiladora

Current Forecast: Thursday, 15 July 2010 16:42

Today

Mostly cloudy this evening and tonight with very heavy rain in places and local thunderstorms.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Not

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS is a downgrade for CAPE and precip intensity for this evening.

GFS must stand for 'Great ! Fabulous !! ...Sh|t€' The number of times it builds up a scenario - and then downgrades at the last minute.

delw

so is that it lads&ladies? are we just goina get some heavy rain&no thunder,frist the snow or lack of it&now thunder

Deep Easterly

Recorded my hightest rain rate intensity of the month earlier this afternoon, a respectable 91.4mm/ph during a surprise shower (didn't spot it coming!)

CarMuppet

Ok so this is my first post on the weather forum... feeling a bit shy:


Anyway I'm really hoping for some nice displays tonight over Kinsale, Co Cork direction. Nothing as of yet. I have camera & generator on the ready. Fingers x-ed.:D

Great thread by the way lads. out of interest (dumb quetion) is the following link 'real':

http://www.laoisweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48&Itemid=57

Cheers
CarMuppet

maquiladora

CarMuppet wrote: »

Ok so this is my first post on the weather forum... feeling a bit shy:


Anyway I'm really hoping for some nice displays tonight over Kinsale, Co Cork direction. Nothing as of yet. I have camera & generator on the ready. Fingers x-ed.:D

Great thread by the way lads. out of interest (dumb quetion) is the following link 'real':

http://www.laoisweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48&Itemid=57

Cheers
CarMuppet

Since you're in Cork, this might be more useful :

http://www.corklightning.com/

Not picking up anything down south yet though...

lucernarian

Can someone stick up any more links for lightning detectors? The european-wide maps are very hard to make out.

maquiladora

An optimistic updated graphic from Met Eireann :pac:

Deep Easterly

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Can someone stick up any more links for lightning detectors? The european-wide maps are very hard to make out.

Two of the most reliable. Hard to make out but generally spot on:

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

darkman2

maquiladora wrote: »

An optimistic updated graphic from Met Eireann :pac:

UKMO is going kind of with what MT was saying with heavy rain later around midnight in the East

lucernarian

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Two of the most reliable. Hard to make out but generally spot on:

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Thanks anyway, I'm looking for any Irish ones though like the Laois or Cork ones. Especially any near Dublin or the northern half of Ireland. Those European ones don't tell you where the detectors they use are based unfortunately:(

djhaxman

One for NI

http://sproule.co.uk/weather/svlightning.html

torrentum

darkman2 wrote: »

UKMO is going kind of with what MT was saying with heavy rain later around midnight in the East

I really like the look of this. Hopefully we'll see something later

Deep Easterly

Latest (12z) NAE total rainfall forecast up to 18GMT tomorrow:

Winger_PL

It's been a while since I've seen such a colourful 3hr precip forecast from met.ie:

maquiladora

For what its worth the rain seems to have eased off here in Waterford at the moment. Not a hint of lightning showing up on any detector for the south....

owenc

Was in the cinema and when i came out at 5 it was bucketing down now its dry again.. is everyone foregetting the front coming here, yous are all going on about the south east but sorry thats going to wales!

Redsunset

That was a great forecast on tv there,looks like some lights camera action tonight

talkabout

Just back from a round of golf at Moyola Park, Magherfelt. Had a lot of thunder and lighting and extremely heavy downpours. Best I've seen in a few years, just a pity we got soaked to the skin.

Redsunset

If these Hirlam precip charts verify then we are in for a rough night.

maquiladora

The question is Red, is it going to be just heavy precip or will we get some fireworks along with it. :pac:

redsunset

redsunset wrote: »

If these Hirlam precip charts verify then we are in for a rough night.

Thanks for those charts. I cant read them but they look mean, so thats good enough for me. Any chance of explaining when you think these if/ might approach Kildare /Dublin? Im dying to go for a walk in a good aul downpour

Redsunset

maquiladora wrote: »

The question is Red, is it going to be just heavy precip or will we get some fireworks along with it. :pac:

Im going to call that we shall have embedded local thunderstorms:D

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

Im going to call that we shall have embedded local thunderstorms:D

owenc

maquiladora wrote: »

The question is Red, is it going to be just heavy precip or will we get some fireworks along with it. :pac:

Naw just heavy stuff, the same crap happened today heavy like nuts but no thunder!

delw

Jake1 wrote: »

Thanks for those charts. I cant read them but they look mean, so thats good enough for me. Any chance of explaining when you think these if/ might approach Kildare /Dublin? Im dying to go for a walk in a good aul downpour

each map has an hourly time in right hand corner,starts at 11pm&finishes at 6am,looks to hit dublin around midnite or so,enjoy ur walk

delw

delw wrote: »

each map has an hourly time in right hand corner,starts at 11pm&finishes at 6am,looks to hit dublin around midnite or so,enjoy ur walk

Cheers for that. Doubt I'll be walking at midnight tho.. who knows LOL

delw

Jake1 wrote: »

Cheers for that. Doubt I'll be walking at midnight tho.. who knows LOL

well i just started to get a shower here so it mite make its way to u so u mite get ur wet walk yet

Su Campu

I'll be very surprised if we see any thundery weather at all from this system moving up from the south. Going by equilibrium level temperatures, they were at their coldest this afternoon, down to around -40°C. For any chance of thunder you need ELTs below around -10°C, and below -30°C the chances go way up, but tonight this system is bringing with it ELTs of only around -5 to-10°C, too warm for electrification processes to take place. We had -40°C today and little or no thunder, I'm afraid that would suggest that we're fighting a losing battle, except maybe the very far southeast after midnight. :mad:

I'd like to know MT's thought on this, am I wrong to be using this tool?

M.T. Cranium

Best dynamics will be from 2100h to 0200h across the southeast, heavy radar echoes now visible on edge of UK metoffice reach from southeast, bad time for Shannon to be down but the satellite imagery and hourly-scale model runs indicate deepening potential.

Would expect this to get at least modestly electrical in an hour or two, and there is potential for a significant event -- as we know, Dublin specializes in the after-midnight thunderstorm.