Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

CrackisWhack

owenc wrote: »

Well its quite cold here at 10c! Brr!

Im suprised you made it through the great storm last night:D

get much:
?

owenc

CrackisWhack wrote: »

Im suprised you made it through the great storm last night:D

get much:
?

There was no storm what are you talking about?

BEASTERLY

My electricty has only being turned back on , so glad to have it back.

Stunning storm here in Wexford last night , definitely the best one here in the ten years i have been living in the area. Fequent lightning for about 2-3 hours. There was a good few very close CG strikes , i was having out the window with a camera when one struck , all the transformers on the ESB poles blew up one after the other.:D

Anyone else in the area 6-7 miles northwest of Wexford town?

Local radio was jammed up with reports of lightning and wind damage this morning! There is a village just north of me where there was reported wind damage including a wall being knocked down and and roof tiles being blown off , dont how reliable these reports on the radio can be. I did observe hail at one stage , what does this sound like? Gust front?

I heard that from Wexford town sothwards didn't get hit that bad at all , power was still on and not to much very close lightning. Can anyone verify this?

Well owen , was i right in saying you wouldn't see a storm?

BEASTERLY

Oh Yeah , a big thanks to M.T Cranium , when wet eirainn and the GFS gave up hope you still said we'ed get a good storm , your forecasts will now become my main forecast:)

mickger844posts

Very localised torrential showers in the Waterford area. Was on the way out to Tramore on the old road and it was torrential rain and flooding on the road. Came home to the outskirts of Waterford city and was told there was no rain there at all. Sky getting dark here now and looking like a heavy shower is ready to start.

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Very localised torrential showers in the Waterford area. Was on the way out to Tramore on the old road and it was torrential rain and flooding on the road. Came home to the outskirts of Waterford city and was told there was no rain there at all. Sky getting dark here now and looking like a heavy shower is ready to start.

There was torrential rain where I was in the city last night. Heard 4 or 5 distant rumbles. Looks like Wexford was the place to be.

torrentum

BEASTERLY wrote: »

My electricty has only being turned back on , so glad to have it back.

Stunning storm here in Wexford last night , definitely the best one here in the ten years i have been living in the area. Fequent lightning for about 2-3 hours. There was a good few very close CG strikes , i was having out the window with a camera when one struck , all the transformers on the ESB poles blew up one after the other.:D

Anyone else in the area 6-7 miles northwest of Wexford town?

Local radio was jammed up with reports of lightning and wind damage this morning! There is a village just north of me where there was reported wind damage including a wall being knocked down and and roof tiles being blown off , dont how reliable these reports on the radio can be. I did observe hail at one stage , what does this sound like? Gust front?

I heard that from Wexford town sothwards didn't get hit that bad at all , power was still on and not to much very close lightning. Can anyone verify this?

Well owen , was i right in saying you wouldn't see a storm?

Beasterly - did you manage to get any pics/videos of the storm? I'd love to see them. It sounded great. I watched the lightning from south kilkenny and most of the lightning seemed to be in the general direction of Wexford. Especially at 9.45pm-ish. Looked bad.

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

There was torrential rain where I was in the city last night. Heard 4 or 5 distant rumbles. Looks like Wexford was the place to be.

I'm talking about this afternoon maq

DOCARCH

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Oh Yeah , a big thanks to M.T Cranium , when wet eirainn and the GFS gave up hope you still said we'ed get a good storm , your forecasts will now become my main forecast:)

Just to defend Met E a little, in fairness, all day yesterday they had a forecast thundery rain or thunderstorms for the south east and east for last night, including in the weather forecast after the 6pm news when it really looked like nothing might happen.

BEASTERLY

torrentum wrote: »

Beasterly - did you manage to get any pics/videos of the storm? I'd love to see them. It sounded great. I watched the lightning from south kilkenny and most of the lightning seemed to be in the general direction of Wexford. Especially at 9.45pm-ish. Looked bad.

Yep , I have videos of the storm , well a little bit of it. Can i upload these straight to boards.

torrentum

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Can i upload these straight to boards.

I'd upload to a youtube account and post a link on the boards.

BEASTERLY

torrentum wrote: »

I'd upload to a youtube account and post a link on the boards.

Will do

Deep Easterly

DOCARCH wrote: »

Just to defend Met E a little, in fairness, all day yesterday they had a forecast thundery rain or thunderstorms for the south east and east for last night, including in the weather forecast after the 6pm news when it really looked like nothing might happen.

Yep, they called it spot on yesterday imo even when the models showed different.

Yester's (the 14th) Six-One forecast

M.T. Cranium

Yesterday was one of those cases where the global models didn't catch all of the finer-scale resolution of the developments, but from what I could fathom looking around the net at various forecasts most people picked up on the potential for their own areas of interest and went with a short-term "old school" type of forecast where you draw up maps every hour and see what's actually happening "on the ground" so to speak.

My forecast was originally based on a statistical approach keying on the destabilizing process that would likely accompany the strong upper low and then as the actual meso-scale low that I referred to as being like a tropical storm developed, it was fairly easy to imagine the results from similar events (you might see 2-3 storms a year like this in the eastern provinces of Canada and in New England in the fall, whether I've seen one like this in Ireland or the UK or not, possibly just one other time in the past five years).

As to the localized wind damage north of Wexford, that makes perfect sense to me given the extreme winds reported in northwest Wales, with the vacuum that created air must have been drawn in very rapidly from the southern Irish Sea and that in turn would require air to flow off land at least in a few places; with the hills in Wicklow, I would imagine there were some strong flows going on above the surface unrecorded along the coast, but it's not surprising that one area of strong winds might develop in what came to resemble an eyewall rotating through southeast Ireland.

I happened to look at the weather obs for Douglas, Isle of Man around 0200 and 0300 and the centre of the low continued to deepen to 983 mbs with the winds dropping off there briefly like an eye situation as the centre went pretty much right over the Isle of Man and then on to east-central Scotland (as anyone watching the golf will know).

A re-analysis shows that at 00z the upper low (542 dm) was close to Thurles while the surface low (986 mbs) was 30 miles east of Dublin. You can appreciate then, on the west to southwest side of the circulation at that point, the upper level winds were probably SSW 50-70 knots while the surface winds were NNW 20-40 knots, hence the high potential for lightning with that wind shear between 1 and 3 thousand metres.

Takeshi_Kovacs

Nice report MT, thats pretty indept reading of what is going on last night.

Also i cant help noticing on sat24, how quickly those cells form in central europe, it is pretty amazing to watch on the loop.

Jpmarn

Met Eireann and RTE weather has put out a mention of thunder over the next few days on the late night forecast with Jean Byrne.

maquiladora

18Z GFS does give some potential for early Monday morning and then Wednesday is better. Long way off though and subject to plenty of change.

maquiladora

Well, the 06Z GFS gives thundery potential for monday, tuesday and wednesday. Latest Met Eireann outlook agrees :

On Monday there will be scattered showers or prolonged spells of rain, heaviest across the north with thunder likely. The top temperatures will be 17 to 21 degrees in fresh southerly winds. Tuesday will bring further scattered showers which will turn into widespread, prolonged and heavy rain in the afternoon with again the risk of thunder. The winds will be light to moderate cyclonic and top temperatures 16 to 19 degrees. Tuesday night will continue with scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers, the showers only gradually dying out. There will be further scattered showers on Wednesday, which will turn heavy and possibly thundery later in the day. The winds will be moderate west to southwesterly and top temperature 15 to 18 degrees. Thursday scattered showers, heavy and thundery at times. The winds will be fresh northwesterly.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

rd_milltown

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

A re-analysis shows that at 00z the upper low (542 dm) was close to Thurles while the surface low (986 mbs) was 30 miles east of Dublin. You can appreciate then, on the west to southwest side of the circulation at that point, the upper level winds were probably SSW 50-70 knots while the surface winds were NNW 20-40 knots, hence the high potential for lightning with that wind shear between 1 and 3 thousand metres.

I enjoyed reading that. I had a good look at it the next morning and there were quite a lot of trees down in NW Wales on the other side of the low, and Aberdaron had a gust to 73 knots (85 mph). It was a tiny little low and E Ireland saw most of the rain from it. I suspect all the convective activity meant that the strong winds above the surface were brought right down to the surface. Hours of fun!

DOCARCH

Very thundery forecast from Met E alright. Hope it comes to pass and then we get some fine weather.

Noted a sferic/strike over NI this morning from showers. http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

I also now see Dublin AP is reporting Cbs. Maybe a chance of the odd rumble for some today?

Su Campu

FFS, I've just run the 5 mile run in the Pheonix Park, just at the finish we had a torrential downpour, really heavy, and I think I heard a rumble of thunder too as I was sheltering under a tree, not sure. :rolleyes:

I had a mile to walk back to my car......in a tee-shirt..... Brrr! :rolleyes:

Looks like a street of showers heading this way in the next hour, a filthy day, 13°C. :rolleyes:

BEASTERLY

Here is just a quick snippet from thursday night:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--V-vzm1IBc

Listen carefully and you can hear the transformers on the ESB poles go bang!:D

Just a mile and half down the road from are still without power, ESB said 10:30pm at the earliest , could be monday though , ahhaha , LOL!:D

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

FFS, I've just run the 5 mile run in the Pheonix Park, just at the finish we had a torrential downpour, really heavy, and I think I heard a rumble of thunder too as I was sheltering under a tree, not sure. :rolleyes:

I had a mile to walk back to my car......in a tee-shirt..... Brrr! :rolleyes:

Looks like a street of showers heading this way in the next hour, a filthy day, 13°C. :rolleyes:

Stop boasting . . .:P

maquiladora

Tuesday looks interesting on the 12Z GFS.

Up to 700 J/kg CAPE and LI -1 to -3 all over.

Redsunset

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Here is just a quick snippet from thursday night:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--V-vzm1IBc

Listen carefully and you can hear the transformers on the ESB poles go bang!:D

Just a mile and half down the road from are still without power, ESB said 10:30pm at the earliest , could be monday though , ahhaha , LOL!:D

Very good,just love how the lightning shows up the area.

torrentum

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Here is just a quick snippet from thursday night:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--V-vzm1IBc

Listen carefully and you can hear the transformers on the ESB poles go bang!:D

Just a mile and half down the road from are still without power, ESB said 10:30pm at the earliest , could be monday though , ahhaha , LOL!:D

Very nice video Beasterly.

Su Campu

I wonder has MT any more on this? Hail practiacally demolishes a glasshouse roof in University of Calgary last Monday, causing $100,000 worth of damage. I hope no-one was in it?

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=27a_1279235628

torrentum

Su Campu wrote: »

I wonder has MT any more on this? Hail practiacally demolishes a glasshouse roof in University of Calgary last Monday, causing $100,000 worth of damage. I hope no-one was in it?

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=27a_1279235628

Fairly impressive video Su. Would have been extremely dangerous inside.

Deep Easterly

DMI seems to be picking up on a potentially potent showery trough (or possibly shallow wave on back edge of frontal zone) crossing the country either during the morning or early afternoon (or both!) on Monday in its last couple of runs: Latest projection:



track of potential is wavering with each run but could be one to watch.

maquiladora

Interesting stuff DE.

Meanwhile the GFS 18Z is still going for a thundery Tues/Wed.