Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

km79

for south east or ireland in general?

maquiladora

Are they new strikes up north?

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

for south east or ireland in general?

A bit too early to tell but midlands and southern half of the country in general I'd say.

BEASTERLY

km79 wrote: »

for south east or ireland in general?

South midlands during the afternoon, into the evening it looks like the south east might get a bit of action.

cian1500ww

We had some thunder and lightning last night at around 2:30am followed by very heavy rain. Lasted about 30 minutes and some of the thunder was very loud with bright flashes of lightning. Best action we've had yet anyway.

maquiladora

Wednesday is a cracker for thunderstorm potential on the 12Z GFS.

Lifted Index of -5 and 1,000 j/kg CAPE in the midlands? Might even see a severe thunderstorm with that.

Redsunset

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-60vcNKQOA&feature=PlayList&p=B3D457B35C0A32D7&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1


Headphones on folks and close your eyes.

Great to go asleep.

M.T. Cranium

I already upgraded the boards forecast for very heavy rainfalls late Tuesday west to Wednesday east, and these will likely be thundery. Amounts could be as high as 30-50 mms from the latest guidance.

If it turns hot and steamy afterwards, any reloads could be quite severe too.

Unlike the previous situation which favoured the southeast alone, this time the dynamics first come together over Connacht late Tuesday then transfer across the country Tuesday night to set up over the southeast on Wednesday. With the exception of the far southwest and northeast corners of Ireland, almost everyone is in with a shout for this round of thunder and heavy rain.

Elmo5

at last!!!!!

lord lucan

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I already upgraded the boards forecast for very heavy rainfalls late Tuesday west to Wednesday east, and these will likely be thundery. Amounts could be as high as 30-50 mms from the latest guidance.

If it turns hot and steamy afterwards, any reloads could be quite severe too.

Unlike the previous situation which favoured the southeast alone, this time the dynamics first come together over Connacht late Tuesday then transfer across the country Tuesday night to set up over the southeast on Wednesday. With the exception of the far southwest and northeast corners of Ireland, almost everyone is in with a shout for this round of thunder and heavy rain.

If i could thank that post twice i would!:D

Su Campu

Watch this video of lightning striking a truck...amazing! (truck's coming from the left)

BEASTERLY

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I already upgraded the boards forecast for very heavy rainfalls late Tuesday west to Wednesday east, and these will likely be thundery. Amounts could be as high as 30-50 mms from the latest guidance.

If it turns hot and steamy afterwards, any reloads could be quite severe too.

Unlike the previous situation which favoured the southeast alone, this time the dynamics first come together over Connacht late Tuesday then transfer across the country Tuesday night to set up over the southeast on Wednesday. With the exception of the far southwest and northeast corners of Ireland, almost everyone is in with a shout for this round of thunder and heavy rain.

Hopefully two storms in as many weeks.

IvySlayer

\0/

Come onnnn thunder!

sunbabe08

i'm after looking at several weather website, and there all saying thunder storms for wednesday and thursday for the south of ireland. is this true?

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i'm after looking at several weather website, and there all saying thunder storms for wednesday and thursday for the south of ireland. is this true?

Which sites were they? Thunderstorms possibles Tuesday and more so on Wednesday, not so much Thursday. Thats how it looks at the moment.

Deep Easterly

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Hopefully two storms in as many weeks.

Hopefully one storm is as many years.

paulhac

Su Campu wrote: »

Watch this video of lightning striking a truck...amazing! (truck's coming from the left)

Amazing find Su Campu. If you freeze it at 14 seconds you see what looks like sparks blowing outward from the top of the truck.

torrentum

My cameras charged. Hopefully it'll happen here after dark; I'm aiming for some nighttime lightning shots

cian1500ww

Can we expect some action in the Northwest ??

redsteveireland

lord lucan wrote: »

If i could thank that post twice i would!:D

I was trying to see if that was possible too! You'd swear M.T made the weather....
Come on the Thunderstorms!

Su Campu

The current setup is that the low to our west is vertically stacked thoroughout the whole troposphere, which is causing the surface low to fill very slowly. The upper trough is in the process of cutting off, and the whole system is slowly tracking eastwards. Occlusion has taken place, and the system now resembles a cold core barotropic low, with cold upper temperatures, below -20°C at 500hPa, and below -40°C at 300hPa. Satellite shows numerous bands of showers circulation around the low centre.

During tomorrow, the system approaches the west coast, with the upper low still trying to cut off from the trough, which is becoming neutral or slightly negatively tilted (orientated NW-SE) at this stage. This negative tilt will destabilise upper levels, enhancing the chance of thunderstorms as the whole system moves eastwards throughout the day and tomorrow night. Upper ridging arrives later on Wednesday, putting a lid on convection, and signalling the arrival of a spell of more settled weather for the the weekend and early next week.

maquiladora

Latest Estofex forecast has nothing whatsoever for Ireland for Tue 20 Jul 2010 06:00 to Wed 21 Jul 2010 06:00 UTC.

maquiladora

18Z GFS is sticking with thundery potential for the southwest tomorrow night and then overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning builds the potential for the east and southeast. The rest of Wednesday looks like the last couple of runs, best thunderstorm potential in the southeast, east and midlands. Interesting on this run though, the GFS keeps that thunderstorm potential there in the southeast overnight and into Thursday morning and then brings back favorable CAPE and LI figures for further thundery showers in the south and east Thursday afternoon.

sunbabe08

maquiladora wrote: »

Which sites were they? Thunderstorms possibles Tuesday and more so on Wednesday, not so much Thursday. Thats how it looks at the moment.

accu weather and weatherchannel.com

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS is sticking with thundery potential for the southwest tomorrow night and then overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning builds the potential for the east and southeast. The rest of Wednesday looks like the last couple of runs, best thunderstorm potential in the southeast, east and midlands. Interesting on this run though, the GFS keeps that thunderstorm potential there in the southeast overnight and into Thursday morning and then brings back favorable CAPE and LI figures for further thundery showers in the south and east Thursday afternoon.

So basically you are saying that the west is to miss out yet again?

*puts fingers in ears and rocks back and forth frantically singing la la la la la la

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

So basically you are saying that the west is to miss out yet again?

*puts fingers in ears and rocks back and forth frantically singing la la la la la la

Doesn't look like the West will be the best place for this setup over the next few days DE. Just going by the CAPE and Lifted Index of the GFS, it looks like yer best chance would be tomorrow evening (but though Estofex reckons we won't see anything tomorrow at all). But sure it's not like what GFS says is set in stone as ya know yerself. :P Don't give up hope!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Doesn't look like the West will be the best place for this setup over the next few days DE. Just going by the CAPE and Lifted Index of the GFS, it looks like yer best chance would be tomorrow evening (but though Estofex reckons we won't see anything tomorrow at all). But sure it's not like what GFS says is set in stone as ya know yerself. :P Don't give up hope!

*sighs despondently* Thanks anyway Maq. I'll just add this spell to my rapidly growing list of weather disappointments this year.

maquiladora

Bit of an upgrade for the west (DE might get his thunder) this evening for thundery potential from Met Eireann and the latest GFS run. Galway/Mayo area first and then later during the night more widely scattered thundery showers.

Wednesday looks pretty much the same as it has done on the past few GFS runs, highest potential for thunderstorms again in the general east/southeast.

The latest GFS (and Met Eireann's outlook) don't show thunder potential for Thursday now.

Strike off the SW coast this morning :

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/
http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

The low spinning off the West coast at the moment :

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

WolfeIRE

maquiladora wrote: »

The low spinning off the West coast at the moment :

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

thanks Maq

Cloud bank rolling in to west already while sky overhead and east is clear blue. lovely morn. hopefully a sign of things to come. a few claps of thunder in the meantime would be nice. nothing major but something equivalent to small 4 magnitude earthquake would be nice:p

maquiladora

Not much change for this evening on the 06Z GFS but the area of highest CAPE extends over a larger area and precip is heavier in parts on this run. But at the end of the day its a global model....

Anyway, I predict DE and Wolfe could at least hear some rumbles this evening. :P

And from Netweather's Convective / Storm forecast for today for Ireland :

Post frontal rPm airmass here with increasingly cold air moving in aloft from the W will generate steepening lapse rates with surface heating ... so scattered diurnally driven heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop through the afternoon/early evening.