Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

delw

maq i know MT metioned wexford&wicklow to get thunder but wat u think of dublin getting a good bout of thunder this time

WolfeIRE

lightening across midlands in england
http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

maq i know MT metioned wexford&wicklow to get thunder but wat u think of dublin getting a good bout of thunder this time

Ah M.T. is the expert here, I'm sure he will let you know what the chances are for Dublin when he gets on but from what I can see, looks like the east including Dublin should have a decent chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

WolfeIRE

Paul Leahy, Science Foundation Ireland and UCC lecturer, says more rain will fall in extreme rainfall events in the future
http://www.rte.ie/news/news1pm/player.html?20100719,2789777,2789778,real,209

maquiladora

WolfeIRE wrote: »

lightening across midlands in england
http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

I think that's a glitch or something on the Meteox site. Those strikes don't look real and are not showing up on

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=1&subpage_0=4&subpage_3=3

or

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Su Campu

This morning's Valentia sounding, which is fairly representable of the whole west coast, shows marked cooling at mid and upper levels since the 00Z ascent. There is a weak cap at around 700hPa which is eroding, so there should be no obstacle to really deep convection later today, with cloud tops reaching around 35,000ft and -45°C. The deep layer shear should reduce later as the upper trough nears, but there should should still be enough energy for convection to continue late into the evening.

BEASTERLY

Camera charged and ready. Does anybody know if Lidl or Aldi sell dopplers , they sell everything else anyway!:D

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Camera charged and ready. Does anybody know if Lidl or Aldi sell dopplers , they sell everything else anyway!:D

Just spotted it in the new newsletter...

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Just spotted it in the new newsletter...

Right so i'll be in queing from 6 in the morning so! LOL , when the they first got free to air sattelite dishes and boxes in there was stampeed at Lidl in new ross , LMAO!

EDIT: Just wondering , where is owen? Shouldn't he be here stating that coleraine will definitely get atleast 5 supercells by thursday evening. He hasn't been banned has he?

maquiladora

20 July 2010 10:56

Today

Bright or sunny periods and showers. Some of the showers heavy and thundery in places, especially in the midlands and western counties. Highest temperatures 17 to 20 degrees.

Tonight

Further showers tonight, with a continuing risk of thunder. Patches of mist and fog also as winds fall calm. Mild. Temperatures no lower than 10 to 14 degrees.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/#

WolfeIRE

BEASTERLY wrote: »

He hasn't been banned has he?

on hols. he sent me a pic

only joking owen

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

on hols. he sent me a pic

only joking owen

Coffee, nose, keyboard LOL brilliant.

maquiladora

Well, nothing so far, but for whatever it's worth, the "UKASF" (UK Amateur Storm Forecasters) put out their own forecast for today and mention...

Across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the returning Polar Maritime airmass later in the afternoon and during the evening hours. Here, hail to 1cm in diameter seems likely in many of the showers, and they will persist overnight, especially across Ireland, with a continued threat of thunder and lightning.

Su Campu

This is for 1am tonight (from yesterday's model run - still waiting for today's output)

maquiladora

Slight downgrade in favorable CAPE & LI on the 12Z GFS both for this evening and tomorrow.

Updated graphic for tomorrow from ME :

Widespread heavy showers tomorrow, especially in the afternoon and evening, with thundery downpours likely.

km79

so not as much rain or thunder shower activity expected tonight??

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

so not as much rain or thunder shower activity expected tonight??

Met Eireann are still forecasting "some heavy and thundery" showers for this evening/tonight.

M.T. Cranium

I suppose only the people reading this thread would be disappointed if this system under-produced, the rest of the population would probably be quite happy.

However, now that the various model runs are in, I would say that it should start producing the advertised heavy showers with thunder by about 9-10 pm with the heaviest activity at first likely to be from Galway south, including Kerry, as the track of the upper low is currently somewhat southeast, then it should recurve northeast overnight. This may pivot the heavy rainfall around and throw it back towards Mayo eventually, while the heavy rain further south will spread to most of eastern Ireland. I think overall amounts will be in the range of 30-50 mms over about 24-36 hours. So, after a rather gradual and uninspiring start, this event should start to ramp up slowly this evening.

WolfeIRE

If Carlsberg made Thunderstorm predictions......

delw

WolfeIRE wrote: »

If Carlsberg made Thunderstorm predictions......

:D

Discodog

What happened ?. Every forecast predicted heavy thundery showers & it has been a nice sunny day here.

Graces7

Discodog wrote: »

What happened ?. Every forecast predicted heavy thundery showers & it has been a nice sunny day here.

Thunder here within the last hour...

maquiladora

You can see the strike from where Grace heard the thunder as the red dot here

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Edit : Another now in Limerick/Clare area

redsteveireland

Any other sightings yet? Skies getting dark around Galway city. Without Shannon radar it's a bit hard to see what's on the way up.

Discodog

Plenty of dark cloud but no rain here. It looks darker over the Burren & darker over Connemara with lighter skies over Galway Bay. This trend has been the same all afternoon. I am guessing, please advise, that the convection is less over the sea.

Su Campu

The sat's showing some widespread development throughout the midlands, west and southwest during the last hour. Gentlemen, start your engines!

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Elmo5

Had a very heavy downpour here earlier this eve, but sun out now. No rumbles. My 6 year old is very very excited about possible thunder storm. He is here looking at youtube videos of thunder and lightning and looking out the window to see if the clouds are dark yet!

maquiladora

redsteveireland wrote: »

Any other sightings yet? Skies getting dark around Galway city. Without Shannon radar it's a bit hard to see what's on the way up.

Looks like another up north and a couple in the Limerick area.

ellieh1

Skies have gone very dark here in Limerick city, no rain, thunder or lightening yet though...

WolfeIRE

raining here...looking dark towards sw