Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

oneweb

I've really got to be quicker off the mark!

Remembered too late that I have a great view of the skyline from the stairwell/landing, bah. Got dresed an all just to see a few distant cloud-lightups. Seems to be moving further east, hopefully I'll see more next time!

Ghost Train

I also didn't bother looking out till it had moved off east, didn't last too long

ian_m

Yea... seemed to get slightly more intense over the sea.

Deep Easterly

John Eagleton bespoke of the possibility of some rumbles of thunder contained within those forecast showers for tomorrow on his 9.30pm broadcast earlier tonight.

Latest sat grab shows developing area of instability out to the west that is expected to move in over Ireland tomorrow morning thereabouts:



The circled area indicates where developing showery trough/s could spring up, and as this area moves over Ireland tomorrow, even modest surface heating could trigger off a few heavy convective showers by morning lasting, and possibly intensifying, into the evening.

I already know it won't thunder here but others may be luckier. Appreciate and absorb every rumble if you are lucky enough to hear them!

wild handlin

Very heavy shower on at the moment here in the North West!!

Appears to have bubbled up over Leitrim over the past 3 hours or so, lets hope the ones to follow will lead to Thunder. Certainly unusual to see showers to bubble up at night, rather than the afternoon. Weather forecast looks promising over the weekend!! :pac:

Deep Easterly

wild handlin wrote: »

Very heavy shower on at the moment here in the North West!!

Appears to have bubbled up over Leitrim over the past 3 hours or so, lets hope the ones to follow will lead to Thunder. Certainly unusual to see showers to bubble up at night, rather than the afternoon. Weather forecast looks promising over the weekend!! :pac:

Yep, some dark clouds here this evening but showers didn't quite make inroads over me.

owenc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

John Eagleton bespoke of the possibility of some rumbles of thunder contained within those forecast showers for tomorrow on his 9.30pm broadcast earlier tonight.

Latest sat grab shows developing area of instability out to the west that is expected to move in over Ireland tomorrow morning thereabouts:



The circled area indicates where developing showery trough/s could spring up, and as this area moves over Ireland tomorrow, even modest surface heating could trigger off a few heavy convective showers by morning lasting, and possibly intensifying, into the evening.

I already know it won't thunder here but others may be luckier. Appreciate and absorb every rumble if you are lucky enough to hear them!

Where the hell did that cloud come out of thats over us now that wasn't forecasted and it looks like the same front that just passed through as its attached to that, its almost like its came back again.

Deep Easterly

Met Eireann's latest forecast seems to highlight a possibility of thunder today:

met eireann 6th July 06.52 wrote:

"A dry start across most areas, but rain and drizzle affecting parts of Ulster. Some sunny spells at first, but cloud will thicken during the morning and early afternoon, and outbreaks of rain and drizzle will gradually move across the country from the west, turning persistent at times, with the risk of thunder too"

http://www.met.ie/


A shred of hope!

jprboy

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Met Eireann's latest forecast seems to highlight a possibility of thunder today:


http://www.met.ie/


A shred of hope!

Sorry Deep, but your shred of hope has been... er.. shredded by the latest Met forecast at 11.15:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
06 July 2010 11:15

Today
Rather cloudy today with widespread outbreaks of rain and drizzle, turning heavier particularly in the northwest. Very breezy, with southwesterly winds increasing fresh to strong. It will be mild and humid, with highest temperatures of 16 to 20 degrees.

WolfeIRE

NEXT Tuesday

It looks set to be fairly windy with rain, which could be heavy and persistent for much of the day with the risk of hail and thunder. Moderate to fresh winds, variable in direction

Hal1

It seems ages away and not in the reliable time frame to be forecasting TS's on this little hit and miss island. There's just too many varibles.

Redsunset

Its not Ireland but Northern Spain got some beauties today.

Watch these babies grow from 2pm to 5pm.

Jealous....

Takeshi_Kovacs

That is quiet explosive formation there!! Be nice to see something like that here sometime..

Su Campu

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

That is quiet explosive formation there!! Be nice to see something like that here sometime..

I'm hoping to see some action like that here in Sardinia tomorrow, ESTOFEX have us circled for some anyway!! :cool:

CJWRC94

Well my first shred of hope for the summer seems to be coming tommorrow evening , and if not I have next Wednesday to hope for.

ukstormrisk.png

Knowing my luck though , it'll prob just be overcast.:rolleyes:

owenc

Oh goody, wait those are netweather charts and that means they will never come true.

Well if it's anything like the sub 70% snow risk charts...I wouldn't hold my breath for thunder.

We need a plume from the south or south east and I'm afraid the dynamics are eventually going the opposite way pushing the heat back to the continent before it even enters west wales never mind crosses the irish sea..

It looks stifflingly hot and sunny outside the big brother house.

Deep Easterly

I think any chance of thunder we have in the west would be if the main frontal zone would clear away during the afternoon to allow some late afternoon surface heating within the forecast slack area of low pressure that is expected to be sitting over us tomorrow. The weather of 2010 though has taught me to expect nothing so I won't hold my breath either.

Su Campu

This morning's sat pictures are showing some deep convection reaching the south coast around now. With strong upper dynamics giving around 30m/s DLS, there will be good support for deep convection after the front clears, should it get going. A limiting factor will be evaporational cooling at the surface after all the rainfall, as a lot of the sun's energy will initially be required to evaporate the surface water before surface air temperatures can start to rise. But with an hour or two of good afternoon insolation, this should raise both temperatures and dewpoints, triggering convection, which should develop nicely throught the midlands, where the combination of warm moist boundary layer, cooler upper temperatures and maximum upper forcing will be most optimum. The 06Z GFS gives a few hundred Joules SBCAPE in south central districts at 12Z, which could be locally enhanced where conditions favour.

Well this is what I can see from the limited info on my phone anyway, I could be totally wrong!

DOCARCH

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

maquiladora

DOCARCH wrote: »

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

I'll call Reed Timmer so....

owenc

DOCARCH wrote: »

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

YAY but i don't want tornados!:eek:

delw

DOCARCH wrote: »

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

lets not get ahead of ourselves,a bit of thunder will do for now

torrential rain at moment,very thundery looking

DOCARCH

Storm now just off the west coast. http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

owenc

DOCARCH wrote: »

Storm now just off the west coast. http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Oh thats the thundery rain coming! I was getting worried as it is spitting rain here now and it wasn't ment to come until 9.

Deep Easterly

Latest BBC run has heavy rain moving into the north later on:



and Estofex have thunder risk within the 'Owen Zone'. :cool:





Dried up here at the moment. Evidence that the low is moving in as wind is east (8mph) while shredding status is moving northwards. Feels muggy as well.

owenc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Latest BBC run has heavy rain moving into the north later on:



and Estofex have thunder risk within the 'Owen Zone'. :cool:





Dried up here at the moment. Evidence that the low is moving in as wind is east (8mph) while shredding status is moving northwards. Feels muggy as well.

Yes but the radar shows that already over us and its just light or maybe theres rain were it shows no rain?

Deep Easterly

owenc wrote: »

Yes but the radar shows that already over us and its just light or maybe theres rain were it shows no rain?

It's a forecast chart Owen, it shows a possible future scenario, not what is happening now.

owenc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It's a forecast chart Owen, it shows a possible future scenario, not what is happening now.

Is there another band or can i just not see the rain that is down by dublin and all that.

Deep Easterly

owenc wrote: »

Is there another band or can i just not see the rain that is down by dublin and all that.

It's difficult set up to forecast Owen so only time will tell!

Sudden downpour here now!!! Did not see that coming at all. :eek: