Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Great finds there DE. I've never seen those clippings before. Interesting to see how the forecast never really touched on the possibility of severe weather. That night was the earliest and still the most incredible weather memories I have. As many have said before, I wonder if we will ever see the likes of it again.

Sorry Maq/guys, with all the little clips it took to make up the post, and with all the tidyings up and editing, I still ended up posting the wrong text forecast :rolleyes::rolleyes:. The one I posted in which you referred was actually from the 26th July 1985. Replaced now with the proper text forecast from the 25th July.

Sorry again for that cock up. Some day I might just do something half right...:o:o:o

DOCARCH

I wonder might there be the outside chance of a storm today given the high temps and humidities?

Looking at Met E radar, a few showers have broken out over Wicklow and looking at IWN both Arklow (NRA) and Mothman in Ashford seem to be getting an easterly sea breeze, against the main wind flow - a bit of convergence maybe???

BEASTERLY

DOCARCH wrote: »

I wonder might there be the outside chance of a storm today given the high temps and humidities?

Looking at Met E radar, a few showers have broken out over Wicklow and looking at IWN both Arklow (NRA) and Mothman in Ashford seem to be getting an easterly sea breeze, against the main wind flow - a bit of convergence maybe???

Some towering CU's building to my north east in the last 30 mins.

If only it had got going earlier.... *sigh*

DOCARCH

Looking at latest radar update, showers seem to be dying away. False alarm!

Probably just a result of orographic uplift.

maquiladora

The latest GFS run is showing potential for some thundery showers tomorrow afternoon/evening in roughly the eastern half of the country. Doesn't look like it will be anything like what we had a few days ago but a few rumbles look possible.

MT's forecast touched on this too.

Su Campu

Valentia 06Z sounding shows an increasingly destabilising atmosphere, with negative Showalter Index and high Totals Total. With a bit of a clearing later, things could really fire up.

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

Valentia 06Z sounding shows an increasingly destabilising atmosphere, with negative Showalter Index and high Totals Total. With a bit of a clearing later, things could really fire up.

It's a pity the CAPE forecast looks pretty poor and no negative Lifted Index figures anywhere :

Su Campu

There is a very strong Cap, which is why the models give no surface based CAPE or LI, but they may not pick up smaller scale influences, such as orographic lift and breaks in cloud cover, that could break through this Cap. The Showalter and Totals Totals indices are a better indication of what could happen in that case (the Showalter index is the same as the lifted index, except the parcel's taken from 850hPa, not the surface). THe setup is becoming less stable all the while as the upper trough arrives, plus areas north of Valentia will be less stable.

And as we speak the line of precip in the west is intensifying on the radar as it moves east.

DOCARCH

I see the Isle of Mann have managed a few sparks in the last couple of hours. http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

maquiladora

And now a strike in the Kerry/Limerick area.

DOCARCH

Sferic in the last hour just on the coast south of Dublin. http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Su Campu

I was playing golf at Woodlands (Kildare) today when the trough passed over, on the first hole and the heavens opened. Turned nice after it, but the golf didn't! :rolleyes:

There seems to be a bit of action going on to the west and southwest this evening, linked to a shortwave upper trough. Water vapour imagery picks it up nicely. With no Shannon radar it's hard to know what it's doing, but the Valentia sounding would suggest it's elevated convection linked to the left exit region of the jet and steep upper lapse rates. It seems to have given a few sferics out in the mid Atlantic earlier.

18Z
WV10.8, 300hPa heights (blue) and 300hPa PVA (yellow)

weisses

Nothing going on here atm .... keep an eye out

Deep Easterly

So far out as to be pointless at this stage but this evening's ECMWF run has a potentially thunder bringing trough passing close to or over Ireland towards the end of next week:



faint signals over the last couple of runs that weak ridging will start to build to the north of us into next week which will help push down slack troughs, of which the Atlantic is full of at the moment, down towards Ireland.

But then again...

thetonynator

Deep Easterly wrote: »

So far out as to be pointless at this stage but this evening's ECMWF run has a potentially thunder bringing trough passing close to or over Ireland towards the end of next week:



faint signals over the last couple of runs that weak ridging will start to build to the north of us into next week which will help push down slack troughs, of which the Atlantic is full of at the moment, down towards Ireland.

But then again...

i'd give that a 0.5% chance of actually happening as they predicted it. . . It'll be downgraded by about tomorrow evening unfortunately. .

Su Campu

That system just to the west is showing strong intensification over the last hour, corresponding to a pool of coldest upper temperatures. Might clip the southwest as it moves eastwards over the next couple of hours. Might be one to watch Weisses

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Su Campu

UK radar is showing some heavy rain in that system as it passes to our south now. Seems to have given just the odd sferic off the Kerry coast during the night, and Valentia reported light rain.

Where's Shannon radar when you need it...

Deep Easterly

Some nice looking storms moving into western France at the mo:




Recent strikes:

WolfeIRE

Su Campu wrote: »

Where's Shannon radar when you need it...

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Classic!!!!!!!!!! :D:D:D

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Wouldnt be surprised in the slightest! ha

hey anyone notice the heavy rain over dublin earlier? , the radar only had a small blod of yellow and it was almost definitely more intense than that. What do u guys think?

DOCARCH

Iancar29 wrote: »

hey anyone notice the heavy rain over dublin earlier? , the radar only had a small blod of yellow and it was almost definitely more intense than that. What do u guys think?

There's been an almost black cloud to my east for the last 2 hours - somebody in Dublin is getting a dumping of rain. Dublin AP has been reporting Cbs for the last couple of hours too.

Iancar29

DOCARCH wrote: »

There's been an almost black cloud to my east for the last 2 hours - somebody in Dublin is getting a dumping of rain. Dublin AP has been reporting Cbs for the last couple of hours too.

Ye exactly, i only live 10 mins drive from the airport...
It was pouring down just after 5 here. Has to be something wrong wit that radar!

thomasj

Yep nasty shower in Dublin city centre at the moment very heavy

thomasj

And it's still going strong!

Su Campu

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ye exactly, i only live 10 mins drive from the airport...
It was pouring down just after 5 here. Has to be something wrong wit that radar!

It was showing red spots (not clear on my image but look at the animation online)

Don't forget, the images we see are 15 minutes old, so there can be strong downpours in between radar sweeps, plus these downpours can be very localised and hence not shown on that image resolution.

maquiladora

Longish way off and might not come to pass but the 0Z GFS shows good potential for thunderstorms next Monday.

Edit : Downgraded already on the 0Z.

Hal1

I used to check those GFS charts daily for any potential of TS development. Some days a cape value of 500 with Li of -5 and good convection would be forecast which would excite me to say the least:D, but then 6 - 12 hours later it change dramatically. So unless it's forecasting within T+12 hours I don't pay too much attention. GFS are the teaser models, bit like pole dancers look but don't touch etc :pac:.

skipz

Hal1 wrote: »

GFS are the teaser models, bit like pole dancers look but don't touch etc :pac:.

Depends which country your in... and how much is in your pocket;)

maquiladora

12Z GFS has flipped back to showing thundery potential again for Monday.