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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Here's the final lightning map for today, assuming no more strikes occur.

    126872.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,324 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    all those strikes around cork. saw nada:mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Hey, Deep Easterly....INCOMING!!!!!


    126884.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Hey, Deep Easterly....INCOMING!!!!!


    126884.png

    This produced some spectacular downpours over Galway city but alas, no thunder. Hopefully he to the north had more luck ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,934 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Could not understand with that heavy rain in Galway this morning and how it looked on the radar that we had no thunder.:mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    CAPE for 3pm, chance of some scattered thunderstorms this afternoon :

    2u4pvdh.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    ESTOFEX

    showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2010090906_201009080607_1_stormforecast.xml

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Wed 08 Sep 2010 06:00 to Thu 09 Sep 2010 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Wed 08 Sep 2010 06:07
    Forecaster: PUCIK

    A level 1 was issued mainly for Central Mediterranean for excessive precipitation and severe hail, less for severe wind gusts or tornadoes.

    SYNOPSIS

    The most important macrosynoptic feature at mid and upper levels of troposphere will be a cyclonic vortex centered over Central France at 05 UTC per satellite observations. It is a part of a low-geopotential system stretching from Atlantic to the Western Mediterranean. The movement of this vortex will be only slight to the east/northeast while the southern flank of its trough will experience some amplification towards south, especially towards Thursday. The whole system is especially on its southern and southwestern flank surrounded by a belt of strong mid and upper tropospheric flow. To the northeast, a region of high geopotentials is observed over Scandinavia and it will persist also during this forecast period. A shallow cut off low is situated to the south, centered over Ukraine and moving to the east.

    At the surface a complex low pressure system will cover most of Western Europe and will stretch to Northern and Central Italy. To the east, a high pressure system will stall over the portions of Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, centered over Southern Finland.

    DISCUSSION

    ... Central Mediterranean ...

    Ahead of the approaching trough, a plume of higher lapse rates is advected from Northern Africa towards northeast. At the same time, with mid levels cooling, weak upward motions and most importantly, high SST and surface dew points, moderate destabilisation is forecast especially over the Mediterranean Sea. Degree of destabilisation will be smaller over the coastal and inland areas with higher CAPEs observed along the western portions of coast and probably over Northern Italy. Values of CAPE will increase to the south, but along with increasing CIN and less favorable, if any, synoptic-scale forcing.

    Enhanced mid and upper level tropospheric flow should result in moderate to strong wind shear, especially in 0-6 km layer. Values of bulk shear in this layer might reach up to 25 m/s over Central Italy (morning hours) and coastal areas of Serbia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina (late evening hours). Forcing will be most favorable in the northern part of region and the highest thunderstorm coverage will be most probably seen over Northern Italy and Northern Adriatics.

    The most distinct threat will probably be an excessive precipitation. At the meantime (05 UTC) a parallel-stratiform MCS is moving from Southern France into Northern Italy with system propagation towards south. This coincides with the favorable moist enhanced southerly flow at lower levels of troposphere. This flow will slowly translate to the east during the day, as should MCS as well. During the evening hours, excessive precipitation threat might shift into the Northern Adriatics region. This threat will be less pronounced towards the southern regions, but also western coastal areas of Italy and Balkans might see some "cell train-effect".

    With moderate values of CAPE and moderate to strong values of wind shear, environment will be supportive of well organised convection, possibly including few supercellular storms. Especially with supercells, but also with other strong multicellular storms, threat of severe hail will be present, along with severe wind gusts. Severe wind gust threat will be more pronounced in the western parts of Level 1 and later in the day, as drier airmass advects over the region. Tornadoes are not completely ruled out, especially over western Balkans, where enhanced low level shear will reach values over 10 m/s, along with low LCLs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,516 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Have posted an update on forecast thread to indicate potential for thunderstorms developing in east-central counties. Have also recommended this thread as a timely source of information should this develop, as yours truly is looking at a time of 0210 rather than 1010 and that spells end of my rather longish day. Sadly, because I do like to watch active weather, but would you regulars here be so kind as to alert the forecast thread viewers to any really strong cells (my alert was rather general as to times and places).

    Thanks in advance, I remain etc etc.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭wild handlin


    Looking @ the radar there are some good looking showers which have passed thru Carrick-on-Shannon/Boyle area and are making inroads for me next - and all the while they seem to be intensifying. Here's hoping for a crack or two of thunder...!!:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    another band of heavy showers will move up east across Clare, Galway, Mayo and Sligo in the next 2-3 hrs. You can see it approaching the west coast below
    126901.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭skipz


    I may stop looking at the thread, everytime i do i get my hopes up and nothing...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Of all the 13 airports in Ireland that have TAFs issued, only one (Belfast Aldergrove) has a mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, all others only have rain showers. (Note though that the TAFs are only valid for within 5 nautical miles of the airport, so they don't include all areas)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Of all the 13 airports in Ireland that have TAFs issued, only one (Belfast Aldergrove) has a mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, all others only have rain showers. (Note though that the TAFs are only valid for within 5 nautical miles of the airport, so they don't include all areas)
    there goes my chances of seeing any activity :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    rumble of thunder to my SW (Shannon Estuary/S Clare)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Line flooding update: DART suspended Dun Laoghaire to Dalkey, Dublin Bus will accept rail tickets


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,324 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    theres a nice line of showers around the youghal area:mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Plenty of strikes being recorded now in the far south, at a rate of more than one per minute

    2010-09-08_14:19:12.0784988 5570 52.386 6.607 1.90 G
    2010-09-08_14:18:36.3288002 5404 52.373 6.611 1.90 G
    2010-09-08_14:17:52.4408798 5190 52.377 6.625 1.70 G
    2010-09-08_14:17:23.3257160 5047 52.383 6.627 1.80 G
    2010-09-08_14:16:26.7829742 4814 53.473 6.897 2.50 G
    2010-09-08_14:16:18.5402431 4758 52.361 6.634 2.10 G
    2010-09-08_14:15:07.3663387 4383 52.393 6.628 1.60 G
    2010-09-08_14:14:11.6274032 4123 52.371 6.676 2.30 G
    2010-09-08_14:11:48.2386513 3418 52.372 6.636 1.70 G
    2010-09-08_14:07:11.5499525 2019 51.957 7.719 2.30 G
    2010-09-08_14:00:12.7475815 60 51.942 7.779 1.90 G
    2010-09-08_13:53:36.9852257 18505 51.893 7.854 1.90 G
    2010-09-08_13:46:35.7603149 16162 51.916 7.904 2.10 G
    2010-09-08_13:37:31.2367325 13017 52.236 7.043 1.90 G


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Dunnes Stores roof collapses amid heavy rain

    printer.gif

    08/09/2010 - 15:34:45
    Heavy rain has caused part of a roof to collapse at a branch of Dunnes Stores in Dublin.

    It happened at Cornelscourt in south Dublin, but there are no reports of any injuries.

    Gardaí said the shop has been evacuated and the incident has led to traffic disruptions in the area.

    Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dunnes-stores-roof-collapses-amid-heavy-rain-472738.html#ixzz0ywuSlb7R


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Huge cell just passing to my north heading east. Few big rumbles out of it


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    baraca wrote: »
    Huge cell just passing to my north heading east. Few big rumbles out of it

    Where? roughly.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Hal1 wrote: »
    Where? roughly.

    Cell is just north of wexford town bout 20-30 miles be my guess. Bit further south and i was in for a right show :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Lightning strikes up to 15:35 today

    126908.PNG


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Another biggun headin straight this way captain!


  • Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭glossy


    :( nothing happening here, nice and sunny


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭Loobz


    that cell which passed through Wexford went straight over me. Myself and my dad were in the garage. He said that in his 62 years he has never witnessed anything like it, and neither have I.

    There was constant thunder (without any gap) and lightning for 25 minutes solid. With that, there were hailstones just short of the size of grapes! The guttering could not hold them. Our back garden is sloped down to a 60 foot long, 3 foot high garden wall. The full length of the wall was a basically a huge waterfall.

    Our drive is about 150 metres long and 3 metres wide, on a 25 degree slope...that was basically a river with no exaggeration. The water flowing was approx 3-4 inches high. Visibilty near zero. Im actally still rattled from it because the lawn/garden is young and still establishing and it was starting to get washed away, literally. It was just astonishing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭wild handlin


    Some very beefy showers here in the NW with plenty of torrential rain.

    No thunder sadly, but does feel very muggy at present. Attached below is a photo just taken about 30 mins ago... where's my thunder!!:(

    picture.php?albumid=1384&pictureid=7280


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,848 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Thundery rain at the moment. No sign of thunder, though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Loobz wrote: »
    that cell which passed through Wexford went straight over me. Myself and my dad were in the garage. He said that in his 62 years he has never witnessed anything like it, and neither have I.

    There was constant thunder (without any gap) and lightning for 25 minutes solid. With that, there were hailstones just short of the size of grapes! The guttering could not hold them. Our back garden is sloped down to a 60 foot long, 3 foot high garden wall. The full length of the wall was a basically a huge waterfall.

    Our drive is about 150 metres long and 3 metres wide, on a 25 degree slope...that was basically a river with no exaggeration. The water flowing was approx 3-4 inches high. Visibilty near zero. Im actally still rattled from it because the lawn/garden is young and still establishing and it was starting to get washed away, literally. It was just astonishing.

    B*astard! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Some very beefy showers here in the NW with plenty of torrential rain.

    No thunder sadly, but does feel very muggy at present. Attached below is a photo just taken about 30 mins ago... where's my thunder!!:(

    picture.php?albumid=1384&pictureid=7280

    Wheres our photo? ha


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Lightning strikes up to 15:35 today

    Strange :confused:, could those strikes in Meath be a false data ? I'm right under one of them, no thunder or lightening here this afternoon. Just some light rain up until about an hour ago, since then there has been some heavier bursts.

    Where's my lightening ?:mad:


This discussion has been closed.
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