Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

Deep Easterly

Loobz wrote: »

that cell which passed through Wexford went straight over me. Myself and my dad were in the garage. He said that in his 62 years he has never witnessed anything like it, and neither have I.

There was constant thunder (without any gap) and lightning for 25 minutes solid. With that, there were hailstones just short of the size of grapes! The guttering could not hold them. Our back garden is sloped down to a 60 foot long, 3 foot high garden wall. The full length of the wall was a basically a huge waterfall.

Our drive is about 150 metres long and 3 metres wide, on a 25 degree slope...that was basically a river with no exaggeration. The water flowing was approx 3-4 inches high. Visibilty near zero. Im actally still rattled from it because the lawn/garden is young and still establishing and it was starting to get washed away, literally. It was just astonishing.

Thanks for that, I got chills down my back just reading your post! Sounded like a whopper.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Thanks for that, I got chills down my back just reading your post! Sounded like a whopper.

Thats what she said...

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats what she said...

Am I missing something....?

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Am I missing something....?

Sorry, just a really lame joke from me DE :pac:

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats what she said...

Priceless.. LOL

ltdslipdiff

Spotted this water-spout thingie today, camera phone didn't capture it too well. Looked great with the naked eye though !

maquiladora

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

Spotted this water-spout thingie today, camera phone didn't capture it too well. Looked great with the naked eye though !

Nice find! How long did it last for?

ltdslipdiff

Only a matter of seconds really, by the time I found a place to pull over it had halved in size. Looked very ominous on the sky line. Loads of people pulled over after me to look at it.

Su Campu

Not wrote: »

Strange , could those strikes in Meath be a false data ? I'm right under one of them, no thunder or lightening here this afternoon. Just some light rain up until about an hour ago, since then there has been some heavier bursts.

Where's my lightening ?:mad:

I think they're correct. They were recorded by the UK network and reported by the Icelandic Met Service here. The locations they give are generally accurate to +/- 2-3kms (under the heading "Óvissa" (ie. uncertainty)). I remember at the time watching a very heavy cell on the radar in that area, so I'm pretty sure the conditions were there. With showery precip though, a small distance can have a huge breaing on what you get. It can be sunny in your back garden while your front one is getting drenched! So the cell may have just missed you by a whisker.

Here's the final map, plotting two more strikes (one near Arklow and the other near Belturbett)

Deep Easterly

Jake1 wrote: »

Priceless.. LOL

Ok, just twigged! :cool:

wild handlin

Su Campu wrote: »

I think they're correct. They were recorded by the UK network and reported by the Icelandic Met Service here. The locations they give are generally accurate to +/- 2-3kms (under the heading "Óvissa" (ie. uncertainty)). I remember at the time watching a very heavy cell on the radar in that area, so I'm pretty sure the conditions were there. With showery precip though, a small distance can have a huge breaing on what you get. It can be sunny in your back garden while your front one is getting drenched! So the cell may have just missed you by a whisker.

Here's the final map, plotting two more strikes (one near Arklow and the other near Belturbett)

Great map Su Campu! Interesting that there was a strike near Belturbet. Any idea what sort of time (roughly) it was listed as a strike? There was a strong line of convection (between Cavan - Belleek) where the clouds were as black as a pint of Guinness (I posted a photo earlier) and looking on the radar the strongest point of convection appeared over Belturbet. Very intersting, and many thanks for posing the map with the strikes, most useful.

Su Campu

wild handlin wrote: »

Great map Su Campu! Interesting that there was a strike near Belturbet. Any idea what sort of time (roughly) it was listed as a strike? There was a strong line of convection (between Cavan - Belleek) where the clouds were as black as a pint of Guinness (I posted a photo earlier) and looking on the radar the strongest point of convection appeared over Belturbet. Very intersting, and many thanks for posing the map with the strikes, most useful.

I have the exact time......17:15:34.8586121, or just plain 17:15!

redsteveireland

Had an awful day today. Awful as in the weather was nice. I could see heavy showers passing all around me but only 2 direct hits. No thunder either:(

wild handlin

Great stuff Su Campu, many thanks!! Thats when the heaviest bursts of rain were over here as well.

I see that there could be more thunder/lightning mixed in with tomorrow's band of rain, sweeping in from the SW by mid-afternoon....

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

I have the exact time......17:15:34.8586121,

IMC042

INCOMING!!! :rolleyes:



Edit : Sorry, fixed now!

Redsunset

I can't see it either


Edit, now i can

irish1967

Blank map for me too

M.T. Cranium

We had some convective cloud around here as well on Wednesday, here's a couple of cloud shots that my wife took around sunset looking west and then north:

IMC042

Met's lastest radar looks like a heavy cell off the west coast!

maquiladora

IMC042 wrote: »

Met's lastest radar looks like a heavy cell off the west coast!

Just a band of good old fashioned Atlantic rain coming in there I think, doubt there will be any thundery activity with that.

Deep Easterly

Despite the showers looking very small and light on the radar, they pack quite a punch. Got drenched walking to the shop earlier!

Su Campu

We might want to kep an eye out tomorrow evening, especially in the west and south, as two potent areas of PVA approach in response to an upper shortwave trough. We could see organised showers form along the west and south coasts, making their way across the country into the evening, but dying out as they do. The GFS has an area of very enhanced precipitation off the south coast by 18UTC, which may stay offshore, but it is one to watch.

Redsunset

Hirlam picks it up too and at the moment has core of heavy rain hitting wales but some rain hitting the south of ireland.




NAE something similar.

sunbabe08

AVOIDing cork altogether i see :rolleyes:

Su Campu

I actually think we could be looking at a fairly potent situation for the west and northwest tomorrow evening/night, and I think ESTOFEX will highlight that in their forecast later tonight/tomorrow morning.

Strong PVA, ~40kts deep layer shear, good low level moisture and instability, and equilibrium temperatures below -30°C should lead to a strong cluster or line of thundery showers moving ENEwards through the northwestern third of the country from teatime tomorrow.

Redsunset

...Ireland and Scotland after sunset...

A strong wave affects the area during the night. Marginal CAPE evolves as mid-levels cool down in an environment with up to 20 m/s SW-erly winds at 700 hPa. Strong wind gusts remain the main risk with showers/isolated thunderstorms.

Deep Easterly

Is this the area of potentail you are looking at Su?



(taken from current ukmo fax 12z analysis)

We would be very unfortunate is we did not scrape something out of that. Fingers crossed!

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Is this the area of potentail you are looking at Su?



(taken from current ukmo fax 12z analysis)

We would be very unfortunate is we did not scrape something out of that. Fingers crossed!

Yes, that's it at the moment. The upper trough in that vicinity becomes negatively tilted as it approaches is tomorrow evening, which will act to destabilise the atmosphere. There will be cold advection at low levels further south, which will counteract the effects of this upper trough, but further north, warm air advection will aid the destabilisation process.

Today



18Z Friday

Su Campu

ECMWF shows 10-20mm/6hrs rainfall rates in the west.