Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 7:59am

The latest satellite image shows the two systems in question. The comma feature 1 has been fairly active during the night and that is the one that could affect the northwest later this evening and tonight. I wonder will it have run out of steam though before it reaches us. It's one to monitor throughout the day. The GFS seems to think it will bring thunderstorms to the west and northwest tonight.

System 2 looks like a developing frontal wave, tapping into the rich moisture source to its south. I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of it affecting southern parts of Cork, Waterford, and Wexford, but the heaviest of the rain should stay to the south.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 10:29am

There are some very high dewpoints this morning.

10am

lucernarian · 10-09-2010 11:04am

With the trusty gauge of how it "feels", it really does seem quite warm and somewhat muggy.

Deep Easterly · 10-09-2010 11:10am

Interesting narrow line of showers dividing those higher dewpoints to the east and lower ones to the northwest:

Met forecast still reckons we might grab a thundery shower tonight:

Tonight

Heavy showers or longer spells of rain will spread from the west later in the night, some possibly thundery, especially in Connacht and Ulster. Lowest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

A sprig of hope to cling onto.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 11:42am

Yes it's just passed over here leaving an absolute deluge, a lot of spot flooding.

(Here=Tallaght)

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 12:12pm

The 06Z GFS and NAE are in fair agreement that the southeast will see some rain this evening, but he heaviest band will miss just to the south. The HiRLAM has no rain at all for the southeast. In the northwest, the NAE and HiRLAM hold on to the heavy rain, while the GFS loses it almost completely. Interesting one this....

NAE 18UTC

NAE 00UTC

GFS 00UTC

HiRLAM 00UTC

And there was a SIGMET out earlier for thunderstorms well out to our west, moving NEwards, but interestingly that has now been cancelled.

EGGX SIGMET 02 VALID 101025/101200 EGRR- EGGX SHANWICK FIR CNL SIGMET 01 100900/101200=
EGGX SIGMET 01 VALID 100900/101200 EGRR- EGGX SHANWICK FIR EMBD TS FCST WI N5200 W02400 - N5200 W02100 - N5020 W02100 - N5020 W02400 TOP FL300 MOV E 10KT NC=

Not · 10-09-2010 1:03pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes it's just passed over here leaving an absolute deluge, a lot of spot flooding.

(Here=Tallaght)

I drove through it on the M50. Certaintly a lot heavier than the yellow representation on the rainfall radar suggests. So heavy it was very difficult to see anything in it even at 30mph (but I did manage to spot the <self censored - insert whatever you like> in the Merc who decided the best way to change lanes in the middle of the deluge was to come to a stop and hang out an indicator :eek::eek::mad:)

Graces7 · 10-09-2010 1:17pm

Is there thunder etc over West Cork; in the last hour: collie who knows these things has been freaking out.

Certainly very mugy and oppressive.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 1:20pm

No thunder reported online anyway....

Latest temps and dewpoints at 1pm

Graces7 · 10-09-2010 1:45pm

Su Campu wrote: »

No thunder reported online anyway....

Latest temps and dewpoints at 1pm

Could be an hour away yet; collie is never wrong. Was so upset she peed on the carpet, a first.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 2:00pm

Met Éireann's 18UTC Aviation chart has two showery troughs lying just off the west and northwest coasts, moving NEwards at 20kts. They give occasional thunderstorms with these troughs.

In the southeast they have the frontal wave lying between Wexford and Wales, bringing rain and drizzle, with some isolated embedded thunderstorms possible.

Lumi · 10-09-2010 2:28pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Met Éireann's 18UTC Aviation chart has two showery troughs lying just off the west and northwest coasts, moving NEwards at 20kts. They give occasional thunderstorms with these troughs.

There's one strike showing up in the NW here http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=3&soort=satradar about 90mins ago but nothing since then

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 3:41pm

In Met Éireann's Local Area forecasts for Donegal, Sligo and Galway airports (valid up to 00UTC) they mention light to moderate rain showers from 22UTC, but no mention of thunderstorms. They could of course have them in the next forecast, we'll see later.

Waterford Airport's gives light to moderate rain and drizzle, and fog. A fairly filthy evening in store there.

That strike earlier was at 12:47, just south of Ballybofey, Co. Donegal. There have been no more in the Atlantic since this morning, but convection seems to be increasing again in that comma system, and I'd expect to see some strikes in the next hour or so.

TheMilkyPirate · 10-09-2010 3:50pm

Any convection in the system to the south or is it just heavy rain?

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 4:04pm

baraca wrote: »

Any convection in the system to the south or is it just heavy rain?

Seems to be mostly frontal rain, but there are some heavy pockets showing up on radar along the south that seem to be intensifying through Waterford and Wexford.....we might see something fire off there soon.

eigrod · 10-09-2010 4:21pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Seems to be mostly frontal rain, but there are some heavy pockets showing up on radar along the south that seem to be intensifying through Waterford and Wexford.....we might see something fire off there soon.

Any of that rain likely to reach North East Wicklow/South East Dublin around 6-7pm this evening, or is it skirting off over Wexford towards the Irish sea?

Thanks.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 4:25pm

eigrod wrote: »

Any of that rain likely to reach North East Wicklow/South East Dublin around 6-7pm this evening, or is it skirting off over Wexford towards the Irish sea?

Thanks.

That heavy stuff no, but the trailing occlusion will probably bring some light rain to the east later this evening/tonight.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 4:28pm

Waterford Airport is reporting 5km visibility in mist and moderate rain at 4pm.

Redsunset · 10-09-2010 4:36pm

Big blobs of heavy rain beating it down in east laois.Looks like a stray from the south east.

Anyway off to London for the week and shall be flying over the heavy rain later.I.ll try take some pics if its any good.

I don't think i'll be missing much while im gone.

the dinner · 10-09-2010 5:03pm

Deep Easterly · 10-09-2010 5:40pm

EMHI model (12z) still has the showery trough moving onto the west coast later on tonight:

while the DMI model has showers breaking out after midnight, which look to be potent enough along exposed coasts:

with the risk of more widespread showers during a good part of Saturday. Details as always closer the time.

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 5:54pm

Some strikes now being observed to the west. Hopefully that's the sign we were looking for

Deep Easterly · 10-09-2010 6:02pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Some strikes now being observed to the west. Hopefully that's the sign we were looking for

All eyes west:

Not related but a couple of sharpish bursts of rain passed through here in the last 30 mins. Hopefully a precursor of what is to come.

Deep Easterly · 10-09-2010 6:12pm

Su Campu, looks like some heavy bursts around your area:

are you seeing anything?

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 6:30pm

Sure am, just had a fairly hefty shower passing through just now. I might be on the fringe of that shower though, I'd say a mile or two to my south got a right drenching. I may get the next one in the nose though!

Iancar29 · 10-09-2010 6:30pm

Zoom descent bit of clouds over the Dublin/Wicklow mountains now.

Lumi · 10-09-2010 6:36pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

All eyes west:

I really hope that the weather 'plays nice' and send some thunder Tuamwards later tonight - you've been waiting long enough;)

Light but persistant rain in the city for the last couple of hours. Hopefully there'll be something more exciting to report later on:)

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 6:42pm

The Shannon and Belfast Aldergrove 17Z TAFs are the only ones with a mention of thunderstorms.

Shannon

EINN 101700Z 1018/1118 23010KT 9999 SCT015 BKN040 BECMG 1021/1023 16007KT PROB30 TEMPO 1021/1101 BKN012 BECMG 1101/1103 24010KT TEMPO 1101/1109 4000 SHRA BKN008 BKN015CB PROB30 TEMPO 1101/1108 3000 BR TSRA BKN005 BECMG 1107/1109 29014KT TEMPO 1109/1118 30015G25KT SHRA BKN018CB PROB30 TEMPO 1109/1118 5000 BKN012

SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIST AND MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1AM TO 8AM SATURDAY

Belfast Aldergrove

EGAA 101701Z 1018/1118 19005KT 9999 SCT025 PROB40 1023/1108 BKN005 TEMPO 1102/1118 7000 SHRA BECMG 1106/1110 27012KT PROB30 TEMPO 1106/1118 4000 +TSRA

SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3AM TO 7PM SATURDAY

Deep Easterly · 10-09-2010 6:46pm

Fionagus wrote: »

I really hope that the weather 'plays nice' and send some thunder Tuamwards later tonight - you've been waiting long enough;)

From around this time of year onwards, Tuam really depends of a stronger flow than what is occurring currently to blow coastal thunderstorms this far inland. I am not really expecting anyting here simply because of the set up, but should there be lightning flashes along the coast later on, we should be still able great views of them from here

Su Campu · 10-09-2010 6:59pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

From around this time of year onwards, Tuam really depends of a stronger flow than what is occurring currently to blow coastal thunderstorms this far inland. I am not really expecting anyting here simply because of the set up, but should there be lightning flashes along the coast later on, we should be still able great views of them from here

Is this that reverse pscychology at work again?? There is upper support with these showers, so we're not relying on surface heating to keep them going inland.

Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

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