Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

IMC042

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 11 Sep 2010 06:00 to Sun 12 Sep 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 10 Sep 2010 21:04
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 2 was issued for parts of Greece and S Albania mainly for widespread excessive convective rainfall and flooding and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Greece, S Balkans and S Italy mainly for excessive rainfall and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

The dominant feature on Saturday is an upper cut-off low over the S Adriatic, slowly translating eastwards. 500 hPa temperatures around -15°C and 850 hPa temperatures around 10°C will lead to some low-end instability in a region with weak upper level winds. The northern edge of this low will affect parts of Hungary and Romania.

A strong upper trough over the NE Atlantic will shift eastwards towards the British Isles, leading to cold air convection over Ireland and parts of UK. The cold front of this low pressure system seems to be not very active on Saturday but this may change on Sunday. Isolated showers and weakly electrified thunderstorms are well possible but severe weather should be unlikely.

DISCUSSION

...S Italy, Balkans, Greece...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop during the daytime with a low potential of hail and gusts. The main threat in parts of S Italy, Albania and Greece is heavy convective precipitation and flooding in the mountaneous areas caused by numerous storms which will make landfall during the afternoon / evening hours. The region where the most intense rainfall is expected is covered with a level 2.

...Hungary, W Romania...

After a period of intense convective rainfall during Friday, the unstable airmass will remain in this region with weak upper level winds and high PWAT. Locally, very intense rainfall is expected with training storms and flooding is possible. Isolated large hail should be possible as well as strong gusts.

Oscar Bravo

2.7mm of rain in Belmullet in the last hour(Met reports at 2300) from a "Recent shower" and "Heavy rain" in Johnstown Castle.otherwise all quite as the radar reflects.A few intense bursts of rain off the West coast but they will be very localised.

the dinner

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

2.7mm of rain in Belmullet in the last hour(Met reports at 2300) from a "Recent shower" and "Heavy rain" in Johnstown Castle.otherwise all quite as the radar reflects.A few intense bursts of rain off the West coast but they will be very localised.

Lol don't forget the pile of rain over on the east coast

Su Campu

Not done yet, though I can't see much chance of anything happening tonight lightning-wise. I had hoped that system would already being firing off missiles at this stage, it's just not happening yet. As Deep Easterly said earlier, maybe some lift will be generated by the terrain when it moves inland, though at the satellite shows it staying more to sea than land. There is an area of active convection just west of Mace Head that might be our best bet, and it's taking a more easterly track than the rest.

the dinner

Su Campu wrote: »

Not done yet, though I can't see much chance of anything happening tonight lightning-wise. I had hoped that system would already being firing off missiles at this stage, it's just not happening yet. As Deep Easterly said earlier, maybe some lift will be generated by the terrain when it moves inland, though at the satellite shows it staying more to sea than land. There is an area of active convection just west of Mace Head that might be our best bet, and it's taking a more easterly track than the rest.

What direction is the center of the low pressure system going in north or south?

Su Campu

the dinner wrote: »

What direction is the center of the low pressure system going in north or south?

Kind of a northeasterly direction. It seems to be back-building a bit, with some cells sprouting up off the Kerry and Clare coast in the last 30 minutes. Ya never know.....ya just never know....

Here's the lastest sat loop

M.T. Cranium

Most active track likely to run due east or slightly south of that, as upper level trough deepens gradually while moving east. This is why the cluster appears to be back-building (spreading southwest as it comes).

Looks active and I agree with the risk for severe storms in the east by late morning hours, with Dublin likely to be close to the more intense activity.

May be able to produce some lightning tonight also, once fully inland.

mickger844posts

Semi heavy rain with a per hour rate of 1.8mm, very mild temp is 16.1c.

It was a wet evening in arklow and then a lull.
The rain is coming down moderately again for the last half hour with large drops.

the dinner

Sorry to spoil your fun guys but it looks like the "severe thunderstorms" were kind of a dud
Sea Area Forecast until 2400 Saturday 11 September 2010
Issued at 2400 Friday 10 September 2010

Gale warning: Nil

Small craft warning: In operation

Meteorological situation at 21: 00 hours: A freshening and unstable southwest airflow develops over Ireland. A showery trough positioned 100 miles southwest of Valentia pushes steadily eastwards.

Forecast for coasts from Roches Point to Valentia to Rossan Point
Wind: Southwest increasing force 5 to 6 imminent; gradually veering west to northwest during the day.
Weather: Occasional heavy showers with a small risk of thunderstorms
Visibility: Generally good, but moderate to poor in showers.

Forecast for coasts from Rossan Point to Howth Head to Roches Point and the Irish Sea
Wind: Southwest to west force 3 to 5
Weather: Scattered showers.
Visibility: Mostly good

Warning of heavy swell: Nil

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 2400 Sunday 12 September 2010: Moderate southwest winds. The wind will increase strong on north and west coasts later. Isolated showers dying out. Mainly fair.

Next update before 0700 Saturday 11 September 2010

Su Campu

The 23Z TAFs are out. No mention of thunderstorms for Knock or Dublin tonight or tomorrow. Shannon again has a slight chance from 2am to 9am. Belfast Aldergrove has moderate chance of heavy thunderstorms from midday to 8pm tomorrow.

The Local Area Forecasts are still not out for Donegal, Galway and Kerry. Waterford has light rain and drizzle, with a chance of fog.

Dublin
EIDW 102300Z 1100/1124 22007KT 9999 SCT020 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1100/1107 5000 BR BKN007 TEMPO 1108/1112 -SHRA SCT018CB BECMG 1109/1112 29015KT TEMPO 1112/1118 30015G25KT SHRA BKN018CB PROB30 TEMPO 1112/1118 5000 SHRA BKN012 BKN017CB

Shannon
EINN 102300Z 1100/1124 19008KT 9999 SCT015 SCT040 BECMG 1101/1103 24010KT TEMPO 1101/1109 4000 SHRA BKN008 BKN015CB PROB30 TEMPO 1101/1108 3000 BR TSRA BKN005 BECMG 1105/1108 28013KT TEMPO 1109/1118 30015G25KT SHRA BKN018CB PROB30 TEMPO 1109/1117 5000 SHRA BKN012 BKN018CB

Cork EICK 102300Z 1100/1124 21008KT 9999 SCT012 BKN030 BECMG 1101/1104 24012KT TEMPO 1104/1109 4000 SHRA BR BKN008 SCT018CB BECMG 1107/1110 29015KT TEMPO 1111/1118 4000 SHRA BKN010 BKN018CB

Knock
EIKN 102300Z 1100/1124 21006KT 9999 SCT005 BKN020 TEMPO 1101/1109 3000 SHRA BKN006 BKN015CB PROB30 TEMPO 1100/1108 0700 FG BKN002 BECMG 1106/1109 29012KT TEMPO 1109/1119 30017KT 4000 SHRA BKN008 BKN017CB

Belfast Aldergrove
EGAA 102303Z 1100/1124 19007KT 9999 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 1100/1111 9000 -SHRA PROB40 1102/1109 BKN005 BECMG 1106/1110 28012KT PROB40 TEMPO 1111/1119 4000 +TSRA

the dinner

Some heavy rain (or thundery? I can't 100% tell) is falling

M.T. Cranium

The sea area forecast above has nothing to do with predicted weather conditions on land. Are you trolling or what's going on? By the way, multiple poster IDs for the same person are not usually tolerated, right?

Oscar Bravo

Taf for EIKN(Knock)
102300Z 1100/1124 21006KT 9999 SCT005 BKN020
TEMPO 1101/1109 3000 SHRA BKN006 BKN015CB
PROB30
TEMPO 1100/1108 0700 FG BKN002
BECMG 1106/1109 29012KT
TEMPO 1109/1119 30017KT 4000 SHRA BKN008 BKN017CB

the dinner

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The sea area above has nothing to do with predicted weather conditions on land. Are you trolling or what's going on? By the way, multiple poster IDs for the same person are not usually tolerated, right?

If I am trolling I am not intending to

Su Campu

Here's the Dutch Met Office's Satrep for 21Z Friday, showing the HiRLAM model forecasts for 06Z. They classify the system in the northwest as an Instant Occlusion

paulhac

the dinner wrote: »

Some heavy rain (or thundery? I can't 100% tell) is falling

What is your location?

the dinner

paulhac wrote: »

What is your location?

Arklow

paulhac

Are you fishmahboi

the dinner

paulhac wrote: »

Are you fishmahboi

Yes
I was banned but I made this account only intended for to keep updated

Tornando9

Guys just making my first post. Very active member on IWN but love the forecasts from SU Campu an D.E and M.T.C. Very optimistic people just like me .

Bugs me big time seeing posters doubting your forecasts i personally think they are very accurate and check in regulary to see what your thinking. I consider myself an "Irish Storm Chaser" and have witnessed 3 big funnels in one day this year (Photos on IWN). I chase "Irish" storms quite frequently and check in here to see what you are thinking.

Keep up the good work and updates. Some people appreciate it VERY much.

May all your storms rotate.
T9

paulhac

Welcome to the forum T9!

Ilyushin76

the dinner wrote: »

Yes
I was banned but I made this account only intended for to keep updated

Are you owenc

the dinner

John85 wrote: »

Are you owenc

No I am not owen

Tornando9

Thanks Paul, Felt like i had to post some people just bust my chops big stylie. I'd like to see them come up with a forecast.

delw

Tornando9 wrote: »

Guys just making my first post. Very active member on IWN but love the forecasts from SU Campu an D.E and M.T.C. Very optimistic people just like me .

Bugs me big time seeing posters doubting your forecasts i personally think they are very accurate and check in regulary to see what your thinking. I consider myself an "Irish Storm Chaser" and have witnessed 3 big funnels in one day this year (Photos on IWN). I chase "Irish" storms quite frequently and check in here to see what you are thinking.

Keep up the good work and updates. Some people appreciate it VERY much.

May all your storms rotate.
T9

welcome T9,you came to the dark side

Tornando9

Only to let certain peolple know to keep up the good work Del, Still love the "other Site" too much. Ha

I feel dirty now.:(...............:D;)

delw

Tornando9 wrote: »

Only to let certain peolple know to keep up the good work Del, Still love the "other Site" too much. Ha

I feel dirty now.:(...............:D;)

your right T9 very under appriciated work done by all the lads/ ladies,as regards to the "other site" your secret is safe with us,we wont say anyting bout you being here :D

Su Campu

Well that didn't go exactly to plan, though there were several strikes during the night in northern Ulster and towards Scotland this morning. Today should be better

Neddyusa

Right lads, as ye all seem to be hoping for and forecasting thunderstorms and other rain related conditions, what or when do people reckon are the chances of maybe two days in the next week or ten days without heavy or prolonged rain?

In otherwords is there any bad weather for you people on the horizon?
Could'nt get digger work done here last week and it badly needs doin this week or its forget it til next year time...

Thanks!