Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

Deep Easterly

Neddyusa wrote: »

Right lads, as ye all seem to be hoping for and forecasting thunderstorms and other rain related conditions, what or when do people reckon are the chances of maybe two days in the next week or ten days without heavy or prolonged rain?

In otherwords is there any bad weather for you people on the horizon?
Could'nt get digger work done here last week and it badly needs doin this week or its forget it til next year time...

Thanks!

Really hard to predict that far out Neddyusa and have no idea what part of the country you are in but generally speaking, tomorrow mightn't be too bad. Monday is looking damp and wet as is the first part of Tuesday. The mid-week period will may well be showery and breezy but given the nature of showery weather, it could well stay dry in your area during this period.

Best bet is too keep up to date here on boards via M.T Cranium's daily forecast thread which is stickied at the top of this particular forum.

Deep Easterly

Total recorded strikes for August last according to the UK Met Office:



Some areas, esp in the south-west, seemed to do fairly well but overall, August proved to be equally as disappointing as the preceding June & July for anything worthwhile thunderwise over the bulk of the country.

I think it is about time this thread was put out of its misery. It has been suffering a slow and agonising death since it was first opened at the start of last summer.

From a local point of view, this year has been the worst I can remember for the sheer lack of anything remotely thundery. An isolated clap and a couple of distant rumbles during one afternoon last July was about the sum of it here. Hopefully the deepening Autumn and the coming Winter will offer generous recompence! (but I know it won't, it will be just more of the same trash as always!)

Mods, can you delete this thread? throw it in the bin; burn it publically; feed it to the pigs, anything, just get it the hell out of my site! :mad:

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hopefully the deepening Autumn and the coming Winter will offer generous recompence!

I forecast that this uncharacteristic sense of optimism regarding the coming winter will bring nothing but disapointment. There's nothing but mundanity and mildewed skies ahead for the foreseeable in the West. (giving this reverse psychology lark a whirl - can't hurt)

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

I forecast that this uncharacteristic sense of optimism regarding the coming winter will bring nothing but disapointment.

Fi, my apologies! will edit post accordingly. Can't believe I slipped into a brief postive vibe there! :o

maquiladora

At the request of Deep Easterly.

We are gathered here today...

DOCARCH

Quite a bit of thundery activity in those showers to the north and north west this morning.

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Deep Easterly

DOCARCH wrote: »

Quite a bit of thundery activity in those showers to the north and north west this morning.

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

The strikes look isolated in nature but are slowing but surely moving SE'wards.

Current sat:


Some of those heavier showers are forecast to clip the north coast later on today but whether they will bring a rumble I can't say.

maquiladora

WolfeIRE

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Fi, my apologies! will edit post accordingly. Can't believe I slipped into a brief postive vibe there! :o

Were you drinking with the Taoiseach last night in Galway Deep?:p

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Were you drinking with the Taoiseach last night in Galway Deep?:p

I've been rumbled! Hobnobbing with the lords of venality is my ting...:)

Seems to be a slight increase in sferic frequency off the northwest coast over the last hour or so:

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I've been rumbled! Hobnobbing with the lords of venality is my ting...:)

Seems to be a slight increase in sferic frequency off the northwest coast over the last hour or so:

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

are you sure that's not just your flatulence from last nights excess:pac:

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

?????

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The strikes look isolated in nature but are slowing but surely moving SE'wards.



Some of those heavier showers are forecast to clip the north coast later on today but whether they will bring a rumble I can't say.

So probably the best location to be is Coleraine! OwenC is alive and well and still posting in other forums, just not here! Maybe a few rumbles this evening will get him back!


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056029079

djhaxman

I saw the sum total of 0 lightning strikes this summer. :mad:

H2UMrsRobinson

a bit of snow, a bit of sun, a bit of wind and now a bit of rain with the threat of a bit of thunder and lightning...this half assed **** drives me "a bit" loopy.

C'mon I want some old testament style smiting type of weather...!:mad:

Su Campu

I reckon we could see some fairly hefty and posssibly thundery showers in the northeastern third of the country for a while early tomorrow afternoon as surface heating under a tongue of cold upper air leads to steep lapse rates, which along with the nearby jet, should yield heavy and possibly thundery showers east of a line from Donegal to Dublin.

IvySlayer

This is why I love the States, guranteed amazing storms. Man I miss it

IMC042

This Wednesday looks like it has some potential for the south west and west of the country from what i can pick up off these maps.

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/

Maybe someone with some experience could take a look at them?

maquiladora

IMC042 wrote: »

This Wednesday looks like it has some potential for the south west and west of the country from what i can pick up off these maps.

http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/

Maybe someone with some experience could take a look at them?

12Z GFS does have fairly good thundery potential for Wednesday afternoon/evening alright.

Su Campu

Looks good alright, could be a good day! The ingredients are there. A deep upper trough above a tongue of rich low level moisture, and steep lapse rates, give a few hundred J of CAPE and an equilibrium temperature below -30°C. The up to 40 knots of deep layer shear should allow longer-lived storms to develop, moving east to northeastwards across most of the country in the afternoon, bringing heavy rain and some hail.

Some almost superadiabatic 0-500m lapse rates give high 1-3km CAPE, yielding the possibility of some small funnels or tornadoes, which the model shows as a max of the significant tornado parameter in the southwest.

IMC042

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS does should fairly good thundery potential for Wednesday afternoon/evening alright.

Thats pretty much what i thought, with our luck though who knows!

Su Campu wrote: »

Some almost superadiabatic 0-500m lapse rates give high 1-3km CAPE, yielding the possibility of some small funnels or tornadoes, which the model shows as a max of the significant tornado parameter in the southwest.

I'll be on the lookout for a tornado with my camera then!!

Birdnuts

Wednesday has the look of a potentially "severe" weather event allright:)

IMC042

maquiladora wrote: »

At the request of Deep Easterly.

We are gathered here today...

I guess there is a chance this thread will be ressurected!

Deep Easterly

IMC042 wrote: »

I guess there is a chance this thread will be ressurected!

like a demon!





Would be more hopeful if it occurred in July or August but still an interesting set up nontheless.

Here is where yr.no is suggesing the trough will lie on early on Wednesday morning:


Seems to be a slow moving affair and a good chance it will be more showery in nature. Worth keeping a side eye on anyway.

maquiladora

Yep, does look slow moving alright DE. Potential there for thundery conditions from late Tuesday night to well into Wednesday night.

Models will probably downgrade this to nothing by then though... :rolleyes:

skipz

Could this be my last throw at the dice for my first bit of action of 2010?

:pac:not a chance!

Deep Easterly

Not much CAPE forecast along with this feature, only a slight deepening hinted at directly behind the frontal zone on Wednesday:




More encouragingly, the same model has a 50% 'storm risk' over much of the south and extreme north on the same day:



although I have no idea how reliable those storm risk charts are, or what they actually mean...

maquiladora

Yeah seems like a bit of a downgrade for CAPE/LI on the 06Z GFS. I've found that it's usually the areas under and to the east of the lowest LI seem to get the most sparks. But I think those netweather storm risk charts are a bit iffy, bit like the snow risk one.

skipz

:pac:still no chance!

Hal1

I take those charts with a....