Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Summer 2010

glossy

short lived storm it was music to the ears hearing the thunder. Now have a lovely double rainbow havent seen one like that for years

lord lucan

This was just before it kicked off,moving in from the west.



Tried videoing some of it on my phone as i was only in the door,not sure if there's anything caught on it but there was plenty of activity. Great stuff,been a long time since a decent thunderstorm,no matter how short!

ninebeanrows

It seems to have broken up, one cell to the south and one that just skimped over here. Clearance to my direct west but fierce cell to my southwest.

djhaxman

Sky darkening again over Maynooth but I don't see us getting the same as an hour ago this time.

Su Campu

djhaxman wrote: »

Sky darkening again over Maynooth but I don't see us getting the same as an hour ago this time.

Agreed, it looks rather tame in comparison (though any other day it would have us droooling in anticipation!) :-D

jambofc

huge thunder storm here lasted about 20 min numerous claps of thunder but only observed 3 flashes
absolutely torrential rain,everything flooded in 10 mins.
first clap of thunder here this year

posted same in current weather thread 1st,oops

aidan_dunne

Been bucketing it down again here in Portlaoise for the last 15 minutes or so. Sky is black as the ace of spades to the east and south but no rumbles yet.

Earlier though, before this shower arrived, the cloud heading towards us looked epic! It even looked like there was a bit of rotation in it too at one point and what looked like the start of a small funnel in the distance but nothing more than that. Or perhaps my over-enthusiastic eyes were just seeing things! I tried taking some pics with my crappy, cheap camera but I don't think they'll come out great. I'll check what they look like on the PC later and, if they're decent enough, I'll post them.

Su Campu

Possibly more action for the east tomorrow in the latest ESTOFEX forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 23 Sep 2010 06:00 to Fri 24 Sep 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Sep 2010 16:40
Forecaster: GATZEN


A level 1 was issued for eastern Spain mainly for large hail, severe winds and excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for northern France and the Benelux States mainly for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

High geopotential over north-eastern Europe and a weak trough over the Mediterranean cause a weak mid-level flow across Europe. From the Atlantic a mid-level trough moves eastward and will affect western Europe during the forecast period. The southern part of this trough will accelerate and rapidly cross the Iberian Peninsula. The northern trough is expected to move to England. Relatively warm air masses present over the Mediterranean will advect into central Europe. To the north-west of a frontal boundary extending from southern Scandinavia to the North Sea and northern France cold air advection is expected at the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

North-eastern Spain

Rich boundary-layer moisture (13 g/kg) is present over the Mediterranean Sea and will spread into north-eastern Spain ahead of a surface low approaching over southern Spain. Low-level convergence and upslope flow are likely during the day, and diurnal heating will help to build CAPE. Additionally, upward vertical motion is expected from the morning on east of the approaching trough. Especially in the afternoon hours, when an intense mid-level jet streak will spread into eastern Spain, strong DCVA is forecast over north-eastern Spain.

Initiation of storms is expected in the noon or afternoon hours. With strong deep layer vertical wind shear (about 20 m/s in the lowest 6 km), storms are forecast to organize and pose a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms will likely merge into mesoscale convective systems as the QG forcing will be strong and a persistent and concentrated low-level convergence is expected. Excessive rain seems to be the main threat after sunset that will gradually shift to the Balearic Islands during the night hours.

Northern France and the Benelux States

A short-wave trough curves around the approaching mid-level trough and affects northern France on Thursday. To the east of the trough axis, this short-wave trough becomes slightly negatively tilted. A 20 m/s mid-level jet streak will spread eastwards over northern France and is expected over western Germany at the end of the forecast period. DCVA is forecast at the cyclonically sheared side of the jet streak.

At lower levels, latest observations indicate that the boundary-layer is moist with a low-level mixing ratio of 8 g/kg. On Thursday, a southerly low-level flow ahead of the approaching frontal system will be associated with warm air advection from France and the southern Benelux States into the North-Sea region, where moisture pooling is forecast. The lapse rates are expected to improve slightly in the afternoon hours when the mid-level trough approaches, and instability is forecast by latest models.

Precipitation is likely from the morning on in the vicinity of the frontal boundary near the North Sea. Warm air advection will go on and convection that may develop in the course of the day will likely be elevated as the boundary-layer is cool. Surface-based instability will develop to the south of this precipitation in response to diurnal heating and increasing low-level moisture. As the mid-level jet approaches, a low-level convergence/cold front will approach aver France and moves into the Benelux States during the afternoon. Surface-based convection is forecast that may merge to clusters later on.

With about 15 m/s bulk shear in the lowest 3 km, storms will likely become organized. Although hodographs are not too favorable, at least some low-level helicity is forecast and supercells are not ruled out, especially near the frontal boundary over the North Sea region, where latest GFS forecasts curved low-level hodographs. Isolated supercells may be capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. In the evening hours, the low-level vertical wind shear increases to 10 m/s, supporting a weak threat for tornadoes.

The main convective mode will likely be clusters moving north-eastward. Embedded mesocyclones will pose a threat of isolated tornadoes or hail. Convective activity will gradually weaken during the night as the boundary-layer cools.

IMC042

Glad to hear that lots of activity showed up in the end. Nothing to report from cork city though.

EDIT: WAIT!! I JUST SAW THIS IN CORK... THINGS ARE LOOKING UP

Su Campu

Think I'll frame this

delw

Su Campu wrote: »

Think I'll frame this

:mad: i didnt see any of them,taut i seen flash to the east out of corner of my eye but no thunder so not to sure,friend in finglas text me to say he had thunder &it was moving my way but broke up before it got here,amazing how quick these tings disapate

maquiladora

Yep chance of a few spark in the east from early tomorrow but CAPE/LI doesn't look as good as it was today.

Birdnuts

Thunderstorm here @ 1700:D

Not

Su Campu wrote: »

Think I'll frame this
.
.
.

Ah FFS - I drove from one side of that red/orange cluster to two thirds way across, stayed there for two hours, and then drove all the way back across it, did I encounter any thunder or lightning ? No, sfa :rolleyes:

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep chance of a few spark in the east from early tomorrow but CAPE/LI doesn't look as good as it was today.

Yes, today was ideal - dewpoints in the mid-high teens, steep mid-upper lapse rates from the upper trough, and some decent shear to separate the up and downdrafts.

Tomorrow we've lost a lot of low level moisture, and with upper warming bringing 300hPa temperatures some 10°C warmer than today, convection will be curtailed too much for thunderstorms. But we should get some scattered showers in the east.

L.O.F.T

djhaxman wrote: »

Sky darkening again over Maynooth but I don't see us getting the same as an hour ago this time.

Its on its way, its hammering it in Kildare now with rain and thunder with some lightning. Streets really flooded

Wertz

lol at that lightning map...heard two rumbles, never seen a flash, and me under a sea of red dots.

Su Campu

L.O.F.T wrote: »

Its on its way, its hammering it in Kildare now with rain and thunder with some lightning. Streets really flooded

Bucketing down here now, but no lightning.

ch750536

Power gone off 3 times in last hour.

CianRyan

Had a ****e load of rain about an hour ago but not even a flash.
Any chance for something more?

In Tallaght, by the way.

lord lucan

Recorded this earlier. It's not as good on Youtube as it looked on the phone but i'll throw it on here for the craic anyways. Bit of lightning at 2.20.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CThwoSuGHCY

Su Campu

lord lucan wrote: »

Recorded this earlier. It's not as good on Youtube as it looked on the phone but i'll throw it on here for the craic anyways. Bit of lightning at 2.20.

I don't think much of the Arsenal jersey you're wearing :pac:

lord lucan

Su Campu wrote: »

I don't think much of the Arsenal jersey you're wearing :pac:

Knew the JVC would be a giveaway!:D

Storm 10

Just caught this over Galway in the last few minutes some very strong upper winds there.

rhonin

Coming home from work earlier and I thought I was in for some nice thunder after seeing this but alas no

redsteveireland

Is there anyway of getting a look at the rainfall radar over the galway area between 12pm and 1pm today, interested to see what it showed up as? Heaviest i've seen in a while:D, no thunder though:(

Su Campu

Don't know about the radar earlier, but the current radar and satellite suggest that all is not lost for the west tonight as that trailing occlusion is firing off some decent convection as it slowly moves southeastwards through Co. Mayo and Sligo. Some pink returns suggest that there's upper support from the approaching northwesterly jet, so sleep with one eye and ear open as there could be some action through the night.

redsteveireland

I see those pink returns out over Clifden direction look like the could swing in over the city soon, I'll be out on the road until after 1am so I might see something then.

Su Campu

Here's a short timelapse of that thundery system approaching this evening. The sound is part of the recording, played back at normal speed for you to enjoy. Nothing like the sound of heavy rain and thunder rumbling away in the background

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWQAlA5UylQ

Lumi

redsteveireland wrote: »

no thunder though:(

There were several loud rumbles of thunder during a heavy downpour before lunch on the east side of Galway city.