Ken Ring predictions

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Just because someone comes on boards doesn't mean we shouldn't question and debate his product. If people want to buy Ken's forecast that's up to them.

I'm giving feedback on my purchase and trying to debate with Ken the issues I have found, that's all nothing less or nothing more.

That's not how it comes across. You only wish to be personal and dissuade people from my service. That because you seem to think you know more about meteorology and can't stand it when someone has a different outlook, and even worse, is trying to make a living from it. I am selling ideas, opinions, commentary on what I think may happen. There is no arguing with that. You can take it or leave it, at best offer another opinion alongside mine, or if you are at all decorous, keep silent and keep negative comments to yourself. As soon as you crticise me you get personal. And if I retaliate in kind then I get the blame for it.
So no, you have no right to get me to justify or debate my product. You can get your own website going and offer something else. Nothing to stop you. It's a free country. So leave me alone please and stop trying to turn potential clientele away, just because of your own bullying nature.

Kenring

Duiske wrote: »

Great thread this, despite the odd few barbed comments sneaking in.

Ken, there has been quite a bit of discussion on this thread about your "error margin" for your predictions. On the first page of this thread (post 17) you stated the following.



That seems to be at odds with what you said to Matt Cooper on the 13th of April this year. Matt asked you was it possible, for example, that you could predict rain for Kerry on a particular day in August. You said that not only could you predict the day, but also the time of day. Why no mention of the 1-2 day error margin ?

Podcast here. The part of the discussion i am refering to starts at 2 mins into the interview.

You have it wrong. You could predict the day and the time if you had the technology. It is do-able. It is akin to predicting the tides, and they have that down to the wire these days. I'm saying they should apply it to the weather. The fact that they don't means we have no technology for it, and so I only have the math to work with, which puts me at a disadvantage and qualifies for an error margin.

Duiske

Kenring wrote: »

You have it wrong.

Matt Cooper : And you can tell what is going to happen in Kerry on the 20th of August. How can you tell ?


Ken Ring : Yes, well I could even give you an idea of the time that the rain would fall.

Sorry Ken, but who exactly do you think could listen to the above question and answer, and come to the conclusion that your answer meant "I could give you an idea of the time, but I can't because I do not have the technology to do so"

edit. Just to add, I know that airtime on tv or radio is not limitless and its next to impossible to fit everything into a few minutes, so maybe thats why the answer was not as clear as maybe it should have been.

Kenring

Duiske wrote: »

Matt Cooper : And you can tell what is going to happen in Kerry on the 20th of August. How can you tell ?


Ken Ring : Yes, well I could even give you an idea of the time that the rain would fall.

Sorry Ken, but who exactly do you think could listen to the above question and answer, and come to the conclusion that your answer meant "I could give you an idea of the time, but I can't because I do not have the technology to do so"

No idea, but as you can see I was careful in my choice of words. The "could" was theoretical. If you didn't get it that's your problem. I only have so much time to give an answer. I don't control the interview nor instigate it. But there is more you missed. The word "idea."
This brings up something you and others should recognise. There are important points being missed in this thread. My opinion is not proof of anything. Other opinions are not proof either. Weather forecasting is ALL opinion-based. Opinions are neither right or wrong. All are free to express opinions, possibly to ask others reasons for theirs, but never to be so disrespectful as to criticise another's opinions if they differ from your own. Otherwise you are setting yourself up as a god, but end up looking and sounding like a git. We have a threadful of them here, who think they are justified in taking apart my opinions, and, proud of their dissections, declare proof, based on their own criteria, that my opinions were invalid. A
counting of the anti-Ken posts on any page in this thread will show who is the nastiest of this thought-police. The so-called consensus that was so often used by the global warmers as though it was proof of something was a consensus of opinion. If there were 10,000 scientists that are of the same opinion, it would still be opinion. It is the same here. Weight of numbers coming on the board and agreeing with the last knocker doesn't alter anything. It just demonstrates how we can underestimate the number of bullies that can dance on the end of a boards.ie thread at any one time.
Since no one knows for sure how climate/weather works we only have discussion open to us. It should not upset anyone that I may be making a living from my discussion by putting attractive and affordable products in the public domain in a saleable form. I have every right to do so. I am not forcing families from their homes like banks do, I am not extortioning
tax money from anyone as governments do to pay, among other things, the wages of ME staff, I am very optional and make no demands on anybody. The reverse is true on this thread, with every man and his dog making demands on me to justify and explain myself every time it
unexpectedly rains. Do you call for a doctor to resign, explain, justify, confess, admit failure and change his working methodology every time a pill doesn't work? This thread is becoming, from Ken Ring Predictions, to Ken Ring Persecutions.
We all have a right to our own opinion. But we must never state opinion as fact. Nor must we ever state that our opinion on facts is somehow superior to someone else's, just because we have read certain books and they haven't. Books are just about opinions on facts also. If 10,000 books said the earth was shaped like a duck I still wouldn't believe it. Yet I wouldn't try to stop others buying them. The world just MAY be shaped like a duck, viewed from a certain angle. What would I know?

www.predictweather.com

Su Campu

Ken, the reply you gave on the radio was misleading. Your answer should have been something like "Well, to within 1 or 2 days yes". Instead you gave the public a false statement of your forecast resolution, and that could only be taken to mean one thing, false advertising. If it was genuinely a mistake then next time you're on you should make it your business to highlight this error last time you were on.

ch750536

Jeebus Su, I know you two have banged heads on this thread but to tell a guy when he is next on the radio to denounce his product....

Has anyone done any analysis comparing him with other long range forecasters for accuracy?

Su Campu

ch750536 wrote: »

Jeebus Su, I know you two have banged heads on this thread but to tell a guy when he is next on the radio to denounce his product....

Has anyone done any analysis comparing him with other long range forecasters for accuracy?

No, not to denounce his product, but to give an accurate account of his forecast timing error, which he has said here is 1-2 days. On the radio he said he could tell not only the day, but even the time of that day rain would occur, and after gasps of amazement from the interviewer, Ken went further by explaining how this was possible. There is no doubt that the listener was left with the impression that from 4 months out, Ken Ring can predict to within a few hours when rain will occur in Kerry.

If Mr. Toyota comes on the radio and says his latest car can do 200mpg, when in fact the Owners Manual states a figure of say 40mpg, do you not think he was wrong?

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

That's not how it comes across. You only wish to be personal and dissuade people from my service. That because you seem to think you know more about meteorology and can't stand it when someone has a different outlook, and even worse, is trying to make a living from it.

Please quote where I have in any way said anything remotley close to that?

Kenring wrote: »

I am selling ideas, opinions, commentary on what I think may happen. There is no arguing with that. You can take it or leave it, at best offer another opinion alongside mine, or if you are at all decorous, keep silent and keep negative comments to yourself. As soon as you crticise me you get personal. And if I retaliate in kind then I get the blame for it.

Again please quote where I have got personal.

Kenring wrote: »

So no, you have no right to get me to justify or debate my product. You can get your own website going and offer something else. Nothing to stop you. It's a free country. So leave me alone please and stop trying to turn potential clientele away, just because of your own bullying nature.

You sell a product, you have chosen to enagage in a discussion of that product, this is a Boards.ie where people discuss.

If you don't want to discuss the forecast you have offered and the excuses you have provided perhaps you should just buy advertising where you can offer your product without any discussion?

ch750536

Su Campu wrote: »

If Mr. Toyota comes on the radio and says his latest car can do 200mpg, when in fact the Owners Manual states a figure of say 40mpg, do you not think he was wrong?

Bad example I know but I never get the MPG they state on their sales stuff.;)

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

Ken, the reply you gave on the radio was misleading. Your answer should have been something like "Well, to within 1 or 2 days yes". Instead you gave the public a false statement of your forecast resolution, and that could only be taken to mean one thing, false advertising. If it was genuinely a mistake then next time you're on you should make it your business to highlight this error last time you were on.

Oh for goodness sake man, get real. Not everyone thinks as deviously as you. Not content with telling people not to patronise my service, now you're telling me what I should say on radio. Ever hear the expression "Live and let live."..??

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

Oh for goodness sake man, get real. Not everyone thinks as deviously as you. Not content with telling people not to patronise my service, now you're telling me what I should say on radio. Ever hear the expression "Live and let live."..??

And there we have it, the ultimate example of dodging a relevant point if ever I saw one.

I think I should email TodayFM and ask them to raise it with you next time.

WolfeIRE

close the thread!

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

And there we have it, the ultimate example of dodging a relevant point if ever I saw one.

I think I should email TodayFM and ask them to raise it with you next time.

Yes, here's the guy who asks where he is getting personal, as if all innocent. I'm sure he is that much of a troublemaker and will stop at nothing. It is shame on you, shame, shame. I am not interfering with your business. Please leave mine alone.

Villain

Care to respond to my post Ken?

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Care to respond to my post Ken?

I think my reply of 01:28 answers you. Anything critical is personal. If you want to be constructive put your ideas/opinion down with the grace of someone showing tolerance of someone else's ideas/opinion. Otherwise please control your desire to denigrate. I am on here to discuss ideas. Discuss, not defend. Ideas are not weapons, but you are ever trying to start a fight with me that no one can ever win. You say you run a weather station and weather website for Carlow. Good luck to you. Then you must have something worth discussing. But if you can't be civil then please go shinkicking with another because I have no stomach for it.

www.predictweather.com

Trogdor

This is getting out of hand lads, you need to cool down. If you feel the need to debate then do so without the insults and respond to each others points. If any more of this behaviour continues in other threads people will be banned. Thread closed.