Ken Ring predictions

Mothman

Su Campu wrote: »

I thought the average temperature was taken as the average of all the hourly readings (ie. T1+T2+T3...../24)?

The vast bulk of climatological stations are manual instruments read once a day at 0900GMT.

Kenring

Mothman wrote: »

The vast bulk of climatological stations are manual instruments read once a day at 0900GMT.

Yes, it is the same in NZ, Australia, Japan, USA, UK and the Pacific Islands. As most metservices use the same equipment I would guess this would be universal.

Su Campu

My Oregon WMR928 takes the average of hourly readings I think.

Su Campu

And the averages calculated from the synoptic reports here aren't simple averages either.

---

Max Min Ave
Sherkin Island 20.2 13.1 16.4
Roches Point 19.6 13.1 16.4

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

My Oregon WMR928 takes the average of hourly readings I think.

There are automatic digital stations that do hourly readings, but in NZ these were installed only in the 1980s and all meterological stations would have upgraded around the same time. Before that, as far as I am aware, no weather station data anywhere on earth was collected manually on the hour, 24/7. No one cared that much and people would need to sleep. As 30 years must pass to get an official national average there is no way these averages are valid yet.

Su Campu

Although there were plenty of stations manned around the clock, hourly reading could be taken using thermographs without the need for someone to actually go outside and read a thermometer. So there are plenty of such temperature data for countless stations going back a hundred years or more.

Valentia

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

Although there were plenty of stations manned around the clock, hourly reading could be taken using thermographs without the need for someone to actually go outside and read a thermometer. So there are plenty of such temperature data for countless stations going back a hundred years or more.

Valentia

I see. So why over the last 100 years have people gone outside and done readings? And I can tell you that they have - I have even helped do so in NZ, Australia and the UK when I have stayed with friends who are data collectors. It doesn't make sense. Are you telling me that meteorologists could not work out that they had to go out on a cold winter's morning risking pneumonia when the option has always been to stay in front of the nice warm kitchen coal range and let a machine do it?

www.predictweather.com

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

I see. So why over the last 100 years have people gone outside and done readings? And I can tell you that they have - I have even helped do so in NZ, Australia and the UK when I have stayed with friends who are data collectors. It doesn't make sense. Are you telling me that meteorologists could not work out that they had to go out on a cold winter's morning risking pneumonia when the option has always been to stay in front of the nice warm kitchen coal range and let a machine do it?

www.predictweather.com

Simple - not all manned stations had thermographs, plus for amateur stations, such as farms, etc. it would be unfeasible for them to

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

Simple - not all manned stations had thermographs, plus for amateur stations, such as farms, etc. it would be unfeasible for them to

I have no thermograph data, have never seen it offered for sale. To me science is a system of standardised variables. You can't have one station doing one thing and another using different equipment, and them calling them the same data. The way it works in meteorology is that at least two stations in the same area have to have identical equipment to provide verification.
We are talking about Ireland and you are claiming that thermographs have a significant presence - otherwise you are introducing a red herring. Please list all Irish stations that employ thermographs and which, for the past 100 years have been providing 24x hourly readings that translate into more relevant averages than the old system of max+min/2.

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

I have no thermograph data, have never seen it offered for sale. To me science is a system of standardised variables. You can't have one station doing one thing and another using different equipment, and them calling them the same data. The way it works in meteorology is that at least two stations in the same area have to have identical equipment to provide verification.
We are talking about Ireland and you are claiming that thermographs have a significant presence - otherwise you are introducing a red herring. Please list all Irish stations that employ thermographs and which, for the past 100 years have been providing 24x hourly readings that translate into more relevant averages than the old system of max+min/2.

Firstly where did I say there was a more relevant average than max+min/2, I didn't, I said that I thought it was calculated differently, and provided you with some examples. So don't imply otherwise.
Secondly I don't have a list of Met stations which have or have not used thermographs, I was going on information I've learned in the past, the source of which I can't lay my hands on, though I think it was in relation to the UKMet. I'll try and dig it up somewhere.

Danno

My Davis reads every 10 to 12 seconds (see http://davisnet.com/product_documents/weather/spec_sheets/6152-62-53-63_Spec.pdf page 6) and averages are based upon this. Only 27 years to go to build up a climate record!

Deep Easterly

I've never understood why readings are taken at 0900hrs, and why the new meteorological day starts at that time. Take an average winters morning within the GMT time zone for example; stations in the east of England would have gained more heat at this 0900hrs than stations in the west of Ireland; indeed, the lowest temps of the morning are more likely to occur after 9 here in the west, but yet these will be recorded as being in the new day!

The extreme rainfall event in Co. Limerick on the early hours of 1st day of August 2008 is down on record as being a July event; the thunderstorm that occured in Dublin on the 2nd of July 2009, which met eireann acknowledges as being on the 2nd, is on record as happening on the 1st!


I know that the 0900hrs is to do with convinience for the observor etc, but couldn't readings just as easily be taken at 10pm in the evening? this would leave just 2 hours of the day being forwarded to the next, rather than the 9 full hours lost on the present one the other way

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

My Oregon WMR928 takes the average of hourly readings I think.

I noticed my Davis, by default, did the same. You can change this though to use the averages based on daily max/mins, which I did, just so as I can compare with official readings from nearby stations and records.

Danno

There are two types of stations...

http://www.met.ie/about/weatherobservingstations/climap.asp

and

http://www.met.ie/about/weatherobservingstations/synopmap.asp

with the latter that we are all used to. I know that the latter map is slightly outdated but I think all reading this are familiar with the recent changes.

Now in the Synoptic stations, observations are made hourly by machines or people whilst the Climatological stations observations are made daily.

Climatological stations are mostly done by volunteers for the Met and typically the volunteers are farmers. The farmers are always up early in the morning tending to livestock and are typically in bed early or at the pub having a pint. 9am - just before breakfast - after a couple of hours out working on the farm beforehand suits. This was more the case years ago when stations were setup initially.

Mothman

Su Campu wrote: »

And the averages calculated from the synoptic reports here aren't simple averages either.

---

Max Min Ave
Sherkin Island 20.2 13.1 16.4
Roches Point 19.6 13.1 16.4

When it comes to the data in the monthly weather bulletin or the making up of the 30 year mean, the simple avaerages are used.

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I noticed my Davis, by default, did the same. You can change this though to use the averages based on daily max/mins, which I did, just so as I can compare with official readings from nearby stations and records.

But it won't be the same unless you've set your day to be 090-09Z.

The 00-24h max min figres will be quite different. With one cold night creating the min for 2 days. ie. if quite cool before midnight.

Mothman

Danno wrote: »

Climatological stations are mostly done by volunteers for the Met and typically the volunteers are farmers. The farmers are always up early in the morning tending to livestock and are typically in bed early or at the pub having a pint. 9am - just before breakfast - after a couple of hours out working on the farm beforehand suits. This was more the case years ago when stations were setup initially.

Quite a few are run by institutions/organisations such as Teagasc or NPWS
Unfortunately with financial cut backs, some of this climate stations have gone by wayside recently.

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

But it won't be the same unless you've set your day to be 090-09Z.

The 00-24h max min figres will be quite different. With one cold night creating the min for 2 days. ie. if quite cool before midnight.

I don't think they will be that different. It is very rare that the lowest temp of the night will occur at the point of midnight; but in the very rare event that it will, the min will, in fairness, cover 2 calendar days.

I can, however, see the logic of your comment, but as I mentioned, the 0900hrs reading would seem very odd, esp in the mid-winter period here in the west, as more often than not, the temp is still falling at that time, which would make a the morning's min cover a two day period, rather than the one it was designed to do.

I am beginning to think that the 0900hrs standard reading time was founded to suit the needs of the SE of England. It is more likely that the winter daily minima is reached there well before the 0900hrs.

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I don't think they will be that different. It is very rare that the lowest temp of the night will occur at the point of midnight;

Then add "In my experience at my site" into my post

I may as well give you example.

This year
09z-09z max min
Mean max 11.6C, mean min 3.1C

00-24z
Mean max 11.6C, mean min 2.7C

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

Then add "In my experience at my site" into my post

In my expereince of my site, it is rare to non existent that the lowest temp of the night will occur will on the point of midnight.

If I was to use the 0900hrs method, my December and January mean min would probably fall substantially. It dosen't make sense in that regard.

Mothman

I didn't mention at point of midnight though I did quote you mentioning that.
This has nothing to do with it.
(note edit in my last post, could be on previous page)
I'll try explain, but explaning is not a strong point of mine.

Sunday/Monday night may be mild say with a min of 8C
The Monday/Tuesday night, sky is clear and temp falls to 4C by midnight

In this scenario
09-09z obs
Monday min 8C

00-24z obs
Monday min 4C

This is regular with me and hence 00-24h mean min is 0.4C lower to date this year.

There are occassions as you point out that the 09z temp ends up being the minimum temperature for following day

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

I'll try explain, but explaning is not a strong point of mine.

You explained perfectly! and since you are an official met observer I respect and take on your points as you know what you are taking about more than me.

Whether I average out data from 00hrs to 00hrs or 09hrs ot 09hrs makes little difference anyway as my unofficial readings are just for personal use and comparison. Luckily there is an official climate record for my area which met eireann kindly sent to me so at least I don't have to wait another 30 years to get one established myself!!

Kenring

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You explained perfectly! and since you are an official met observer I respect and take on your points as you know what you are taking about more than me.

Whether I average out data from 00hrs to 00hrs or 09hrs ot 09hrs makes little difference anyway as my unofficial readings are just for personal use and comparison. Luckily there is an official climate record for my area which met eireann kindly sent to me so at least I don't have to wait another 30 years to get one established myself!!

Not good enough, IMO. Surely it has been well documented now that standardisation is lacking. Temperature-gathering over different criteria being therefore considerably less than true science, and the large disrepancy that can arise, mean that comments on trends based on what passes for temperature gathering are going to be less than useful, and even in many instances a false record of what a day contained. We have the technology to do better, but stick with the old, and in so doing invalidate the results.

Villain

Villain wrote: »

You have no rain forecast from the 17th June until the 10th of July bar 1mm on Sunday the 20th June and then quite a bit of rain from 11 July until the 7th August so lets see what happens

I think the forecast for rain Today might be out slightly

thetonynator

Mothman wrote: »

Quite a few are run by institutions/organisations such as Teagasc or NPWS
Unfortunately with financial cut backs, some of this climate stations have gone by wayside recently.

When the kilkenny station was closed down recently, met eireann relocated to oak park in carlow, a teagasc site which already had a good climatological station. Shame kilkenny is gone.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I think the forecast for rain Today might be out slightly

Don't forget to apply the 80-100km radius variability in all my forecasts. Otherwise you are not talking about my forecasts, but your version of my forecasts.:)

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Don't forget to apply the 80-100km radius variability in all my forecasts. Otherwise you are not talking about my forecasts, but your version of my forecasts.:)

Lol
you could apply 250km and you still wouldn't have seen rain best days weather in years.

Perhaps you should just provide Province forecasts rather than County forecasts if they are meant to cover 80km - 100km

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Lol
Perhaps you should just provide Province forecasts rather than County forecasts if they are meant to cover 80km - 100km

Perhaps, but the same can be said for ME and all forecasting agencies. Forecasts can never be more specific as the radar comes from satellites hundreds of miles up. One rule for me and another for the rest is getting to be tiresome :rolleyes:

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I think the forecast for rain Today might be out slightly

Too warm. Moon's in the south. Summer first quarter moon means a warmer morning sun, so the day heats up early.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

Perhaps, but the same can be said for ME and all forecasting agencies. Forecasts can never be more specific as the radar comes from satellites hundreds of miles up. One rule for me and another for the rest is getting to be tiresome :rolleyes:

Emm well the ME do only do regional forecast by Province except for Dublin, have a look at http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp

Also I think the WXSIM forecast model might be worth looking at, i.e. give % chance of rain.

This is just feedback.