Ken Ring predictions

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Overwhelmingly positive. It is only meteorologists and astronomers who look for fault and of course find it. They cannot get past their own criteria which gives them a bias. I only care about the responses from farmers. I am on ski blogs, surf forums, all sorts, and the scene is the same as here. The people on the ground support what I am trying to provide and then along comes a 'regular' meteorologist who endeavours to shut me down. Sometimes it gets so heated the thread gets closed by the moderators. I think that is often the agenda of those who want to deflect attention away from their own lack of a good track record. Anyone is entitled to an opinion in this world - except when it comes to weather and when it comes to me, it seems..:)

I know I havent really posted in this thread, but are you saying that the only people who find fault in your forecasts are the ones that actually know what they are talking about?

Danno

Right, let's put a test going... perhaps a Mod can move this to a new thread and lock it after Ken has replied.

July 31st, August 1st and August 2nd are collectively known as The August Bank Holiday in Ireland.

What will the weather be like in Laois for that weekend?

Allowing for your margin of error... 15%... forecast A) Temperature, Rainfall and C) Sunshine amounts for each day.

Clemon

Ken's Ring

kingaaa

Danno wrote: »

Right, let's put a test going... perhaps a Mod can move this to a new thread and lock it after Ken has replied.

July 31st, August 1st and August 2nd are collectively known as The August Bank Holiday in Ireland.

What will the weather be like in Laois for that weekend?

Allowing for your margin of error... 15%... forecast A) Temperature, Rainfall and C) Sunshine amounts for each day.

Ah Yeah, get your own forecast then lock it!!!!:D:D:D

Popoutman

I've no connection to Claremorris, so instead of Laois, I'm going to suggest Claremorris for the Saturday, Sunday and Monday of the Aug bank holiday weekend.

Ken,
Please do a forecast for rain wind and sunshine for Claremorris Co. Mayo for those three days, and you can list beforehand your expected error ranges for all of your predicted values.

We can then compare this to the Met Eireann observed values for those days, and we can then fairly easily see if you are within 1-sigma of your forecast.

Do you think that this is fair? Can you suggest another method that you can bolster your weather forecasts?

Mothman

Danno wrote: »

Allowing for your margin of error... 15%...

But what if the 3 days fall within this 15%. If the 20 or so days either side are correct then this would be within margin of error.

Villain

Danno wrote: »

Right, let's put a test going...

It seems someone else done a bit of testing:

From: http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20On%20The%20Farm/Topics/Ringworld.html

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

I've no connection to Claremorris, so instead of Laois, I'm going to suggest Claremorris for the Saturday, Sunday and Monday of the Aug bank holiday weekend.

Ken,
Please do a forecast for rain wind and sunshine for Claremorris Co. Mayo for those three days, and you can list beforehand your expected error ranges for all of your predicted values.

We can then compare this to the Met Eireann observed values for those days, and we can then fairly easily see if you are within 1-sigma of your forecast.

Do you think that this is fair? Can you suggest another method that you can bolster your weather forecasts?

No, it's not fair. I have a living to make. I've no wish to bolster my forecasts on this blog because those that accept what I do don't need convincing, and those that don't will remain skeptical. So what's the point? My time is as valuable as yours, except Villain's because he believes it should all be free. Well, absolutely nothing to stop anyone logging onto www.predictweather.com, going to Forecasts, and dialling in dates, country, and county. The sky's the limit, you can get Bank Holiday for 26 counties. Be my guest! It would be locked up because it would be on your computer - it couldn't be more fail-safe!

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

It seems someone else done a bit of testing:

From: http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20On%20The%20Farm/Topics/Ringworld.html

Oh yes, the religious truffle farmer global warming nutter who has erected dedicated websites to pulling to pieces every point I make, because he thinks the moon is evil and pagan. Way to go. Believe him and you'll believe anything.

Kenring

Clemon wrote: »

Ken's Ring

Moderators - where are you? This is unnecessary..

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

I know I havent really posted in this thread, but are you saying that the only people who find fault in your forecasts are the ones that actually know what they are talking about?

No, the opposite. The only people to know anything about weather, apart from cows, frogs, herons, mullet and salmon, ants and dolphins are farmers, in my experience.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Your forecast shows:
Monday 14th 14mm rain
Tuesday 15th Trace of rain
Wednesday 16th 3mm
Sunday the 20th 1mm.

Monday refers to Sunday. The rest are too small to take seriously.

Villain wrote: »

LOL where did I say a day away was what I forecast?? I forecast 5-7 days ahead and I didn't charge a penny for it..

So what? Your forecasts are probably not worth anything!

Villain wrote: »

No but you don't seem to want to accept any negative feedback.

Well, yes, I only claim 80-85%, so that's two months in a year total that I am likely to be incorrect. Same as you, same as ME. Difference is, I do it from two years away, not 5 days. You can look out a window and roughly determine what will happen in 5 days. But try projecting that for two years ahead and you have a point of comparison. I wish you luck

Villain

You never replied to my comment on last weekends rain distrubtion charts, which showed rain over parts of the country, do you want me to post the charts?

Kenring wrote: »

Monday refers to Sunday. The rest are too small to take seriously.

How would I know that Monday was actually meant to be Sunday? and 3mm is still rain and would affect Hay making.

Kenring wrote: »

So what? Your forecasts are probably not worth anything!

Well it was worth more than yours last week to the farmers who rang me.

Kenring wrote: »

Well, yes, I only claim 80-85%, so that's two months in a year total that I am likely to be incorrect. Same as you, same as ME. Difference is, I do it from two years away, not 5 days. You can look out a window and roughly determine what will happen in 5 days. But try projecting that for two years ahead and you have a point of comparison. I wish you luck

But its not just the 80%-85% we have "temps aren't accurate, allow 2 days error for rain, allow 80 to 100km error for rain location and rain forecast could actually be dew or frost or haze or fog or mist!, sunshine hours could be a day or two out"

With all these qualifications to your forecast its going to be very hard to be wrong isn't it?

Kenring wrote: »

Oh yes, the religious truffle farmer global warming nutter who has erected dedicated websites to pulling to pieces every point I make, because he thinks the moon is evil and pagan. Way to go. Believe him and you'll believe anything

So are you saying his rain chart for 2006 is incorrect?

Popoutman

Just to be clear - I'm not writing this as an attack on Ken. That is not my intention. I'm just trying to clear up why it is that Ken won't stand over a forecast when people that do understand (and some are qualified in) meteorology are paying attention to it? Why does Ken appear to be so defensive about this thread?

Kenring wrote: »

No, it's not fair. I have a living to make.

Actually it is very fair, even more so because you charge money for the service. the fact that you would like to make a living from this is never in question. If you charge for a service, you can fairly expect for that service to be critically examined, and if you were clever about things you would take the opportunity to try and silence your critics, instead you are trying to attack the critics - that's just not professional.

Kenring wrote: »

I've no wish to bolster my forecasts on this blog because those that accept what I do don't need convincing, and those that don't will remain skeptical. So what's the point?

If you've no wish to bolster your forecasts, why bother responding here? I've given you a chance to put your reputation where your mouth is, and give a forecast. If you're unwilling then it is safe to say that you are not willing to stand over your forecasts in which case why would anyone *pay* you for a forecast?

Kenring wrote: »

My time is as valuable as yours, except Villain's because he believes it should all be free.

I'd say my time is more valuable than yours, but that's neither here nor there. You're advertising a service, and all I'm asking you to do is show me how accurate you are. Consider this a review of your service, and you're getting an advantage in that you know this is a review.

Kenring wrote: »

Well, absolutely nothing to stop anyone logging onto www.predictweather.com, going to Forecasts, and dialling in dates, country, and county. The sky's the limit, you can get Bank Holiday for 26 counties. Be my guest!

Given that it appears that your forecasts are not actually that good and that you are not willing to show how good your forecasts are, I would certainly be better off getting a second and third opinion, preferably ones that are not pay-for...

Kenring wrote: »

It would be locked up because it would be on your computer - it couldn't be more fail-safe!

I genuinely think you misunderstand what this was referring to.

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

Oh yes, the religious truffle farmer global warming nutter who has erected dedicated websites to pulling to pieces every point I make, because he thinks the moon is evil and pagan. Way to go. Believe him and you'll believe anything.

I don't see any reference to the Evil Lunar Gods in the graph posted above, seems like an Excel graph to me....

The only people to know anything about weather, apart from cows, frogs, herons, mullet and salmon, ants and dolphins are farmers, in my experience.

Oh, except truffle farmers though!

You can look out a window and roughly determine what will happen in 5 days.

I'm looking Ken, but I ain't seeing any signals.... C'mon you Lunar Gods, give me a sign!

Sam Kade

Ken I heard you predicting our summer weather last Feb/Mar on 96 FM prendeville show. I took note of what you said. You said that our summer would not be unlike last year with lots of rain and that the last week of June and first week of July would be dry and sunny and that we wouldn't see dry weather again until October. In Cork we didn't see rain in any great amount since April.

jamesoc

Hi Ken ,
Newbie here , any method of foretelling the future weather interests me , so did you foresee last winters ice and snow ? , also can you see a repeat this winter ? .

octo

Villain wrote: »

I decided to buy your forecast and see for myself and the feedback I'm giving is based on the forecast I purchased.

Just curious - do the figures in your Carlow 'forecast' match up with the daily data of 17 years 10 days ago for Kilkenny, available here?

Villain

octo wrote: »

Just curious - do the figures in your Carlow 'forecast' match up with the daily data of 17 years 10 days ago for Kilkenny, available here?

Simalar but not exactly the same

Deep Easterly

I am going to put my cynicism aside for the rest of the summer and analyse Ken's monthly forecasts up to September or thereabouts. I purchased his July forecast earlier today and I have to say it is very well presented at least.

I think it would be folly to see if each day's forecast is correct for a specific area; I will be looking more at his monthly overview in general. If his forecasts prove to be nearer the mark than I have reckoned, then so be it; if not, then I am down the price of a couple of packets of Harrys'!


Edit. Ken, would I be far off the mark when I say that the isobar forecasts you use on the July edition of your forecast are similar to that of June 1993?. June 1993 brought a daily rainfall total of over 100mm at Casement on the 11th June :eek::eek:


Edit: Monthly Mean Sea Level Pressure for June 1993 (based at 1800hrs)



Quite zonal overall. So it will be interesting to review the July 2010 monthly mean SLP when it is issued to see if there is any similarity with that of June 1993.

Chart Source: http://www.ecmwf.int/

Kenring

octo wrote: »

Just curious - do the figures in your Carlow 'forecast' match up with the daily data of 17 years 10 days ago for Kilkenny, available here?

Well, that's one way of doing it, but I don't just stick to one. I use 19 years, 38 years, 56 years, the lunar year, 5 cycles in all. Also an astrology program. Mainly I am guided by what the moon is doing each day with respect to the 3 cycles, declination, phase and apsidal, the speed it is going and the position we are at on the solar cycle..it's explained in my book the Lunar Code, available from my website.
www.predictweather.com

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Well, that's one way of doing it, but I don't just stick to one. I use 19 years, 38 years, 56 years, the lunar year, 5 cycles in all. Also an astrology program. Mainly I am guided by what the moon is doing each day with respect to the 3 cycles, declination, phase and apsidal, the speed it is going and the position we are at on the solar cycle..it's explained in my book the Lunar Code, available from my website.
www.predictweather.com

You know that the constant plugs for the website in your posts could be seen by mods as advertising?

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

You know that the constant plugs for the website in your posts could be seen by mods as advertising?

Well, you could say that about anyone who posts here. It's just a way of getting more information because I have a lot of free articles posted on www.predictweather.com . Myself, I'd like to see other website links so I can get a feel of who the people are on the forum. But of course there are meteorologists here who want to stay anonymous. That's their choice. So far you're the only one complaining, and I've been on boards.ie for over a year now, signing off with my link.
www.., ah, never mind

Sam Kade

Ken can you shed any light on the totally wrong prediction you gave Prendeville last spring?

Sam Kade

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am going to put my cynicism aside for the rest of the summer and analyse Ken's monthly forecasts up to September or thereabouts. I purchased his July forecast earlier today and I have to say it is very well presented at least.

Does it match the prediction he gave last spring? 1 sunny week at the start of July and rain for the rest of July.

WolfeIRE

I must admit I like this thread.

I do value Ken's different opinion and his courage to put his neck on the line. He gets it wrong sometimes and other times has it spot on like all other weather forecasters.

If someone wishes to subscribe to his service they should do so knowing they are subscribing to another's opinion and not a 'get your money back if he is wrong' service.

The reaction to Ken's predictions is quite strong here which is not a bad thing. However, he doesn't have to come on a public forum to answer customers in such a public fashion. He deserves credit for doing so.

The fact that those knowledgable of all things meteorlogical here are asking the questions makes this thread very interesting indeed so keep it up!

ps...I guess if the thread is called ken ring predictions - there should be no issue with his website being shown.

Poly

I started the thread with the intention of finding out what experience people have had with Ken’s forecasts. I don’t pretend to understand a lot of the technical discussion that has transpired.
A friend of mine who does industrial paint jobs recommended Ken’s site to me. He plans external paint jobs around the forecasts. He's happy with the service.
This year I took note of Kens predictions when he was on Matt Cooper, (back in March, I think). From a layman’s point of view he has been accurate so far this year.
I never heard M.E . give a long range forecast with Ken’s accuracy.

I have small kids so air travel is very difficult, so next year I will plan my summer holidays around Ken’s forecast and I will gladly pay his charge.

Edit: I'm not related to or involved with Ken, I didn't know Ken was a boardsie when I started the thread.
on reflection I should have called the thread "Ken Ring's forecasts", maybe the Mods could fix it.

Villain

Poly wrote: »

I started the thread with the intention of finding out what experience people have had with Ken’s forecasts. I don’t pretend to understand a lot of the technical discussion that has transpired.
A friend of mine who does industrial paint jobs recommended Ken’s site to me. He plans external paint jobs around the forecasts. He's happy with the service.
This year I took note of Kens predictions when he was on Matt Cooper, (back in March, I think). From a layman’s point of view he has been accurate so far this year.
I never heard M.E . give a long range forecast with Ken’s accuracy.

I have small kids so air travel is very difficult, so next year I will plan my summer holidays around Ken’s forecast and I will gladly pay his charge.

Edit: I'm not related to or involved with Ken, I didn't know Ken was a boardsie when I started the thread.
on reflection I should have called the thread "Ken Ring's forecasts", maybe the Mods could fix it.

Poly I think the thread was a great idea and worthwhile, my main issue is the amount of error allowed, perhaps becasue I have an interest in the weather I look at his forecast in more detail than others.

Anyone who is into the weather like me would love to be able to forecast 2 years in advance, I bought Ken's forecast to see for myself how accuarte it is and I have to say I'm not overly impressed and I think I have outlined why.

Su Campu

I wonder would Ken be willing to post a link to an old expired forecast as a sample so that we could see what we're talking about, plus check how it did in reality. I don't suppose he will agree, but it would be good PR in his case if he did.

Villain

Su Campu wrote: »

I wonder would Ken be willing to post a link to an old expired forecast as a sample so that we could see what we're talking about, plus check how it did in reality. I don't suppose he will agree, but it would be good PR in his case if he did.

He forecast 10 days rain (1mm or more) between the 9th and 23rd of April inclusive, a total of 44mm for Carlow in total we had 0 days rain with 0mm