Ken Ring predictions

thetonynator

Villain wrote: »

Lol Gene Derm, imagine not using your real name!

Octo you might as well beat your head off a brick wall, Ken often changes his aftercast.

FYP:P

jamesoc

Villain wrote: »

Lol Gene Derm, imagine not using your real name!

So you have been on boards.ie before Ken or is it Gene and still making enemies even then , well youre consistent .

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835&highlight=ring

K-9

jamesoc wrote: »

So you have been on boards.ie before Ken or is it Gene and still making enemies even then , well youre consistent .

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055720835&highlight=ring

Well there was the problem with Boards and the hack attack.

jamesoc

K-9 wrote: »

Well there was the problem with Boards and the hack attack.

Fair enough if thats the case , my mistake .

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Yep that's it run and hide, you won't debate because your forecasts fail - simple

I can't debate them because the only members who want that debate here, are meteorologists who want to dicuss THEIR versions of my predictions, which are not what I claim. I repeat, predictions are opinions. Opinions aren't right or wrong in themselves, any more than feelings are. Events MAY happen, equally they may not if the word 'may' is contained. A prediction can only be debated if the word 'will' is employed, because 'will' does not allow will not.

www.predictweather.com

Deep Easterly

Kenring wrote: »

I can't debate them because the only members who want that debate here, are meteorologists who want to dicuss THEIR versions of my predictions, which are not what I claim. I repeat, predictions are opinions. Opinions aren't right or wrong in themselves, any more than feelings are. Events MAY happen, equally they may not if the word 'may' is contained. A prediction can only be debated if the word 'will' is employed, because 'will' does not allow will not.

www.predictweather.com

I may be wrong but I don't think there are any meteorologists posting on here Ken, just enthusiasts.

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

I can't debate them because the only members who want that debate here, are meteorologists who want to dicuss THEIR versions of my predictions, which are not what I claim. I repeat, predictions are opinions. Opinions aren't right or wrong in themselves, any more than feelings are. Events MAY happen, equally they may not if the word 'may' is contained. A prediction can only be debated if the word 'will' is employed, because 'will' does not allow will not.

www.predictweather.com

But your opinion is that, to the best of your knowledge, the weather you forecast will happen, not that it may happen. Otherwise it is not a predicition at all it is a suggestion, a wild guess. And therefore you should not sell your work as a prediction.

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

Ok Ken, you wanted a debate, and you got a debate. I am not debating your longrange forecasts because I admit I don't know much about lunar cycles, etc., unlike you, fair enough. But I have debated what I do know, how the atmopshere works. How clouds form. I have repeatedly tried to explain where your understanding is wrong in this respect, not for the sake of trying to tarnish the name Ken Ring, but because your ideas are fundamentally flawed, and as many users use this forum to learn more, it's important they're given correct information. My explanations are not my theories, they're solid scientific fact. Don't take my word for it, they are in all the books and online articles you can find, INCLUDING the ones you referenced, even though you believe they say the opposite.
To take the article you posted on cold air funnel clouds. You have again misread it and taken it to mean the opposite. They are funnel clouds that form in the cold air behind cold fronts, not clouds containing cold air! They occur in cumuluform clouds, which are only there because warm air rises.

Again you are seeing the doughnut hole instead of the whole doughnut.
Warm air can only rise if cold air falls.

Su Campu wrote: »

You were talking about towering cumulus clouds earlier, that they contain cold air. The inverse is true, They are warmer than their environment, which is why they they continue to rise and rise. As the water vapour condenses out, it releases its latent heat, which keeps it warmer than its environment. When all the water vapour has condensed out, then there's no more latent heat release, then eventually the rising parcel will become the same temperature as its surroundings, and will stop rising further. That's fact, and you can't deny it.

I can certainly deny that you have told the whole story, and I can deny that the most important part has been covered. Rising heat is not visible, as tower clouds are. Just look above a heater - no clouds. Cloud visibility is due to cold.

Su Campu wrote: »

That's the end of the debate as far as I'm concerned. I really don't have time to be correcting your errors every time you make a post. Now this time, I definitely am done with this thread. Someone else take over

Yeah, right, you're like a Rolling Stones farewell concert.

jamesoc

Kenring wrote: »

I can't debate them because the only members who want that debate here, are meteorologists who want to dicuss THEIR versions of my predictions, which are not what I claim. I repeat, predictions are opinions. Opinions aren't right or wrong in themselves, any more than feelings are. Events MAY happen, equally they may not if the word 'may' is contained. A prediction can only be debated if the word 'will' is employed, because 'will' does not allow will not.

www.predictweather.com

Sorry Ken but that is a load of Bull , do you take us Irish for fools or something , no sane farmer in their right mind at these times of recession is going to cough up scarce money for a weather forecast that 'may' happen , apart from that i thought your forecasts were set in concrete or something .

Kenring

octo wrote: »

This is not true. I documented on a very long thread last year how you altered a very specific forecast you had given for Snow in November. You changed your snow forecast after it didn't snow as you had predicted.

This is how you justified it: "Well I do reserve the right to edit my website from time to time to make things more succinct. I have not changed anything ssential. I shall continue to edit and change paragraphs to freshen them for previous readers."

Now what kind of concrete is that, exactly?

I won't risk censure by the moderators for saying what I really think of you Ken.

I didn't change a forecast - you can't if it is after an event. I reframed certain paragraphs to put them in context with the error disclaimer, as part of editing down to make room for new material on the same page. That is not the issue here as I understand it. What people are saying is that I do or should change forecasts before the event, like met folk do, sometimes every 5 minutes if it suits them. Well I don't. After the event there can be all sorts of discussion.

Deep Easterly

Kenring wrote: »

I can certainly deny that you have told the whole story, and I can deny that the most important part has been covered. Rising heat is not visible, as tower clouds are. Just look above a heater - no clouds. Cloud visibility is due to cold.

No clouds above a heater because the surrounding environment is generally dry and stable. Ever notice a basin of warm water giving off steam, or a boiling kettle? This steam occurs because the environment is moist and unstable. Warm moist air interacting and rising within surrounding colder air.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Lol Gene Derm, imagine not using your real name!
Octo you might as well beat your head off a brick wall, Ken often changes his forecast.

I had to use Gene Derm because my own name wouldn't register at the time and I thought I was being barred. You know my attitude towards nom de plumes, I despise them as cowardly, Villain. After discussion with moderators I realised it was I who had made a mistake, so I reinstated myself with Ken Ring. You have a problem with that?
And I never change my forecast once made. How can I, when they are written in book form and sitting in homes?

www.predictweather.com

Kenring

Deep Easterly wrote: »

No clouds above a heater because the surrounding environment is generally dry and stable. Ever notice a basin of warm water giving off steam, or a boiling kettle? This steam occurs because the environment is moist and unstable. Warm moist air interacting and rising within surrounding colder air.

Yes, good point. You can look at it in two ways. An area of rising warm or an area of descending cold. Both intermingle in the same area. But you won't get clouds without the cold.

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

no sane farmer in their right mind at these times of recession is going to cough up scarce money for a weather forecast that 'may' happen , apart from that i thought your forecasts were set in concrete or something .

They are. You thought right. As to your other point, you need to go speak to a farmer. Farmers the world over spend money for all sorts of 'may' scenarios. There is a HUGE futures market and that largely controls the international agricultural economy, Ireland included.

www.predictweather.com

Kenring

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I may be wrong but I don't think there are any meteorologists posting on here Ken, just enthusiasts.

Not as I understand it. Some have even said they run services. One has a website for Carlow weather. If that's not a meteorologist then I'm a monkey's uncle.

www.predictweather.com

duckysauce

your winter predictions were way off the radar , or was that the moons fault

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

They are. You thought right. As to your other point, you need to go speak to a farmer. Farmers the world over spend money for all sorts of 'may' scenarios. There is a HUGE futures market and that largely controls the international agricultural economy, Ireland included.

www.predictweather.com

I am a farmer. There are many other farmers on this forum. From what I have read of your responses to other peoples questions and your debating on this thread, I would not dream of purchasing your forecasts. M.T.'s forecasts are good enough for me, and the farming forecast on RTE is also very good. As a last resort I would call Met eireanns weatherdial.

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Not as I understand it. Some have even said they run services. One has a website for Carlow weather. If that's not a meteorologist then I'm a monkey's uncle.

www.predictweather.com

Being a weather enthusiast and running a private weather station with a website connected makes you a weather enthusiast, not necessarily a meteorologist.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Being a weather enthusiast and running a private weather station with a website connected makes you a weather enthusiast, not necessarily a meteorologist.

You're probably correct, and a meteorologist is clearly not a weather enthusiast, because mets get more funding when they are incorrect. A good consistent shortfall in track record means qualification for new and updated equipment, increased staff numbers and rewards like conventions attendance, flying business class and staying at 5-star hotels at resorts with names like Rio, Bali, Copenhagen..

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

You're probably correct, and a meteorologist is clearly not a weather enthusiast, because mets get more funding when they are incorrect. A good consistent shortfall in track record means qualification for new and updated equipment, increased staff numbers and rewards like conventions attendance, flying business class and staying at 5-star hotels at resorts with names like Rio, Bali, Copenhagen..

your winter predictions were way off the radar ??? any reply ?

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

I am a farmer. There are many other farmers on this forum. From what I have read of your responses to other peoples questions and your debating on this thread, I would not dream of purchasing your forecasts. M.T.'s forecasts are good enough for me, and the farming forecast on RTE is also very good. As a last resort I would call Met eireanns weatherdial.

Your choice. So why are you on this thread? Looking for free stuff?

www.predictweather.com

duckysauce

the farming forecast is free:eek:, and what about the bleeding winter

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

your winter predictions were way off the radar ??? any reply ?

No they weren't. I got the events. The temperatures were more severe than I thought, but the moon method does not cover temperatures as well as do solar cycles. It has all been covered in discussion here previously.
Anyway, we're into summer now. Our July report is available at http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ShopProducts.aspx?ID=2
Want to discuss them?

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

the farming forecast is free:eek:, and what about the bleeding winter

Yes, that was free too:rolleyes:

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

No they weren't. I got the events. The temperatures were more severe than I thought, but the moon method does not cover temperatures as well as do solar cycles. It has all been covered in discussion here previously.
Anyway, we're into summer now. Our July report is available at http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ShopProducts.aspx?ID=2
Want to discuss them?

The temperatures were more severe than I thought, says it all , a mild and wet winter it was not , Anyway, we're into summer now , is no answer how can you predict weather but not cover temperatures??? ps for 10 dollars i do not want to discuss them, Matt on today fm i am sure they will pay you and hail stones

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

You're probably correct, and a meteorologist is clearly not a weather enthusiast, because mets get more funding when they are incorrect. A good consistent shortfall in track record means qualification for new and updated equipment, increased staff numbers and rewards like conventions attendance, flying business class and staying at 5-star hotels at resorts with names like Rio, Bali, Copenhagen..

Last I heard, met eireann had their budget cut slightly . . .maybe because they actually get their forecasts right?

Kenring wrote: »

Your choice. So why are you on this thread? Looking for free stuff?

www.predictweather.com

No, i'm interested in the weather and I read and contribute to most threads on this forum.

Kenring wrote: »

No they weren't. I got the events. The temperatures were more severe than I thought, but the moon method does not cover temperatures as well as do solar cycles. It has all been covered in discussion here previously.
Anyway, we're into summer now. Our July report is available at http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ShopProducts.aspx?ID=2
Want to discuss them?

Never seen anybody so good at avoiding questions as this before.

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

The temperatures were more severe than I thought, says it all , a mild and wet winter it was not , Anyway, we're into summer now , is no answer how can you predict weather but not cover temperatures???

Temperatures are unmeasurable. Get a sensitive thermometer and go and stand anywhere outside. It will change every second, like a running movie. I have an ecoscan, a soil thermometer, but you can hold the probe in the air. A thermometer only measures the temperature inside the bulb and the glass surface of the bulb, in other words only the temperature of itself.

www.predictweather.com

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

Temperatures are unmeasurable. Get a sensitive thermometer and go and stand anywhere outside. It will change every second, like a running movie. I have an ecoscan, a soil thermometer, but you can hold the probe in the air. A thermometer only measures the temperature inside the bulb and the glass surface of the bulb, in other words only the temperature of itself.

www.predictweather.com

yeah right big difference between the normal 0c irish winter and - 12c this year , try the tea leaves hear they give temps when they cool down

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Temperatures are unmeasurable. Get a sensitive thermometer and go and stand anywhere outside. It will change every second, like a running movie. I have an ecoscan, a soil thermometer, but you can hold the probe in the air. A thermometer only measures the temperature inside the bulb and the glass surface of the bulb, in other words only the temperature of itself.

www.predictweather.com

The temperature of the bulb will be the same as the temperature outside the bulb once it is there for a few minutes. It may change by iny amounts very frequently, but the thermometer is capable of giving accurate readings over times longer than a few seconds.

K-9

Kenring wrote: »

Temperatures are unmeasurable. Get a sensitive thermometer and go and stand anywhere outside. It will change every second, like a running movie. I have an ecoscan, a soil thermometer, but you can hold the probe in the air. A thermometer only measures the temperature inside the bulb and the glass surface of the bulb, in other words only the temperature of itself.

www.predictweather.com

Why bother with them in your forecasts?