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Ken Ring predictions

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    #212
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    K-9 wrote: »
    Why bother with them in your forecasts?
    I don't. I mention them because they mean things to some people, who aren't aware of what temperature is and how little it can tell about an event. That's their problem. But I don't bother with them.


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    #213
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    thetonynator wrote: »
    The temperature of the bulb will be the same as the temperature outside the bulb once it is there for a few minutes. It may change by iny amounts very frequently, but the thermometer is capable of giving accurate readings over times longer than a few seconds.
    Pinch your fingers on the bulb for say 5 minutes. Look at the temp. Now pinch your fingers an inch AWAY for 5 minutes. Look at the temp. No difference?


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    #214
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Kenring wrote: »
    Pinch your fingers on the bulb for say 5 minutes. Look at the temp. Now pinch your fingers an inch AWAY for 5 minutes. Look at the temp. No difference?


    Yes there will be a difference. By pinching it, the temperature will rise to somewhere below 37 degrees. By holding it away, it will not be at the temperature of the air around it. The temperature of the air around it is the temperature that we want. That is why we dont leave thermometers in direct sunlight, as the glass would heat up and it would not reflect the air temperature.


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    #215
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Yes there will be a difference. By pinching it, the temperature will rise to somewhere below 37 degrees. By holding it away, it will not be at the temperature of the air around it. The temperature of the air around it is the temperature that we want. That is why we dont leave thermometers in direct sunlight, as the glass would heat up and it would not reflect the air temperature.
    No, you miss the point. The temperature an inch away is different. So is the air temperature. Get a string of thermometers and put them a metre apart on a wall. If they are digital and therefore more reliable(because glass shrinks and expands)each will show different readings and keep changing throughout the day, from themselves and from each other.

    www.predictweather.com


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    #216
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Kenring wrote: »
    No, you miss the point. The temperature an inch away is different. So is the air temperature. Get a string of thermometers and put them a metre apart on a wall. If they are digital and therefore more reliable(because glass shrinks and expands)each will show different readings and keep changing throughout the day, from themselves and from each other.

    www.predictweather.com


    Air temperature averages out, so while there will be slight differences in the temperatures of several thermometers together, the differences will be miniscule, and if you were to take readings off each every minute for an hour, you would get identical or very similar averages, because the air moves around.


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    #217
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    thetonynator wrote: »
    That is why we dont leave thermometers in direct sunlight, as the glass would heat up and it would not reflect the air temperature.
    ha ha, so every time the sun peeps out you rush over and bring the thermometer inside?? You'll be sprinting all day man :D:D:D:D
    What do you think they do in Australia? This is stand-up comedy..


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    #218
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Kenring wrote: »
    ha ha, so every time the sun peeps out you rush over and bring the thermometer inside?? You'll be sprinting all day man :D:D:D:D
    What do you think they do in Australia? This is stand-up comedy..


    Thermometers are stored in a Stevenson Screen, so that they are not exposed to direct sunlight and therefore give accurate readings.

    Yes, I agree. It is comedy to watch you change argument every few hours because you have lost the previous argument. I'm sure they have Stevenson Screens in Austrailia too.



    A Stevenson Screen:



    Stevenson-Screen.jpg



    A Stevenson Screen in Australia:
    stevenson.jpg


    Not sure about you, but they look pretty similar to me.


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    #219
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Thermometers are stored in a Stevenson Screen, so that they are not exposed to direct sunlight and therefore give accurate readings. Not sure about you, but they look pretty similar to me.
    Yes, if you photograph a Stevenson screen and then photograph another one (same product) and compare photos..isn't that amazing!! they look the same!! Just like two VW Beetles would! How incredible is that? How to explain? :rolleyes:
    BUT..They don't all use Stevenson screens. Some use unprotected sensors on poles. There are actually 7 different ways of collecting temperatures and none are standardised as to location. So they can be in the middle of asphalt, as in Melbourne on cnr of La Trobe/Victoria, or in a field under a tree. And the standard method for measuring frost is measured by an unshielded temperature probe horizontally mounted 25 to 30mm above a clipped grass surface (flat lawn).

    www.predictweather.com


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    #220
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Kenring wrote: »
    Temperatures are unmeasurable. Get a sensitive thermometer and go and stand anywhere outside. It will change every second, like a running movie. I have an ecoscan, a soil thermometer, but you can hold the probe in the air. A thermometer only measures the temperature inside the bulb and the glass surface of the bulb, in other words only the temperature of itself.

    www.predictweather.com
    Kenring wrote: »
    No, you miss the point. The temperature an inch away is different. So is the air temperature. Get a string of thermometers and put them a metre apart on a wall. If they are digital and therefore more reliable(because glass shrinks and expands)each will show different readings and keep changing throughout the day, from themselves and from each other.

    www.predictweather.com
    Kenring wrote: »
    Not as I understand it. Some have even said they run services. One has a website for Carlow weather. If that's not a meteorologist then I'm a monkey's uncle.

    www.predictweather.com

    The only bit you've got right in this thread is the last bit in red. :rolleyes:


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    #221
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Kenring wrote: »
    Yes, if you photograph a Stevenson screen and then photograph another one (same product) and compare photos..isn't that amazing!! they look the same!! Just like two VW Beetles would! How incredible is that? How to explain? :rolleyes:


    Well actually, i google searched stevenson screens, took the first pic from there, then I went on to an austrailian met site - not sure if it was an official one or not- nad there was a picture of their stevenson screen on that site.

    So maybe they do use stevenson screens in austrailia. And maybe they dont go around pinching thermometers to change the temperature readings.

    Monkeys uncle . . . .


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    #222
    Mothman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Well actually, i google searched stevenson screens, took the first pic from there, then I went on to an austrailian met site - not sure if it was an official one or not- nad there was a picture of their stevenson screen on that site.

    Its unfortunate but of the 2 photos, one is a cropped and flipped horizontal version of the other :)

    But the point you are making does stand up. The Stevenson Screen is a standard radiation shield adopted worldwide.


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    #223
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Now this time, I definitely am done with this thread. Someone else take over
    Su Campu, can't you even get this right? Why keep returning?


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    #224
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    This thread has gone off the point in the last day or two and has descended into tit for tat personal jibes. Maybe the PM system could be used for such unsightly comments as it is not becoming of any boards poster to be unmannerly.

    Would be a pity if the thread was closed so maybe we could revert back to discussion on Ken's predictions.

    Su Campu, I have huge faith in your meteorlogical experience and knowledge and I value your contributions and analysis of Ken's work. Please keep it up. Ken, please keep responding to queries.


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    #225
    Sam Kade
    Registered Users Posts: 12,313 ✭✭✭✭Sam Kade


    I read Ken's comments on another website funnily enough he sounded nothing like the Ken we have on here :confused:


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    #226
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Mothman wrote: »
    Its unfortunate but of the 2 photos, one is a cropped and flipped horizontal version of the other :)

    But the point you are making does stand up. The Stevenson Screen is a standard radiation shield adopted worldwide.
    Saying there is some worldwide standard is pure nonsense.
    Firstly, there are still many stations that only use exposed sensors on poles, no Stevenson screen.
    Secondly, some shelters(or "Stevenson screens") are placed on aslphalt, others sit on concrete, others on tops of tall buildings, some on iron roofs, some near jet exhausts at airport tarmacs, some near sewage ponds, some beside tennis courts, others in busy streets. In rural areas with no airports the favoured places are on top of schools or post offices.
    Thirdly, it was found recently that when white latex paint replaced whitewash on the shelter, a difference of up to a degree was recorded. (At one time they were all whitewashed).
    Add to that the wholesale relocation of these shelters to the warmest part of town, to bolster readings, to add to the ClimateGate debacle. In NZ alone, some 20 towns did this. In some, the Metservice only gave whichever was the greater reading to the TV news: either the downtown one or the airport result. This produced a public outcry about 2 years ago but died down as a news story yet still persists. There is no way of knowing how international the practice was, but our metservices were hand-in-glove with East Anglia and the IPCC.
    IMO temperature is only in the hand of the bulbholder.

    www.predictweather.com


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    #227
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Sam Kade wrote: »
    I read Ken's comments on another website funnily enough he sounded nothing like the Ken we have on here :confused:
    Analyse the difference. Here we have meteorologists with personal axes to grind, who don't want to see debate. In other threads decorum reigns because no one feels a need to attack me.


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    #228
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    This thread has gone off the point in the last day or two and has descended into tit for tat personal jibes. Maybe the PM system could be used for such unsightly comments as it is not becoming of any boards poster to be unmannerly.

    Would be a pity if the thread was closed so maybe we could revert back to discussion on Ken's predictions.

    Su Campu, I have huge faith in your meteorlogical experience and knowledge and I value your contributions and analysis of Ken's work. Please keep it up. Ken, please keep responding to queries.

    Yep, I think Su & ken should kiss and make up. C'mon guys, waddasay? :p

    Seriously though, I am enjoying this thread. Learning a lot from both guys. Both seem to be at their best when they are a bit contentious.


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    #229
    Mothman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    Kenring wrote: »
    Saying there is some worldwide standard is pure nonsense.
    I didn't say this, I said the screen is adopted worldwide, no mention of exclusively.
    Secondly, some shelters(or "Stevenson screens") are placed on aslphalt, others sit on concrete, others on tops of tall buildings, some on iron roofs, some near jet exhausts at airport tarmacs, some near sewage ponds, some beside tennis courts, others in busy streets. In rural areas with no airports the favoured places are on top of schools or post offices.
    Don't disagree

    I can't comment on the rest of your reply.


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    #230
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Kenring wrote: »
    IMO temperature is only in the hand of the bulbholder.
    Lets forget NZ for a minute, are you qestioning the accuracy of Met Éireanns weather stations? If so on what basis?

    On your forecast for this June and July as I said previously you forecast no rain from 22nd June to the 5th July. We have 1mm in many places already today and rain for forecast for the coming days, you still stand over your forecast?


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    #231
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Yep, I think Su & ken should kiss and make up. C'mon guys, waddasay? :p

    Seriously though, I am enjoying this thread. Learning a lot from both guys. Both seem to be at their best when they are a bit contentious.
    Can't, because Su has left the building. I trust he's a man of his word ;)


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    #232
    Popoutman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    (personal observation - not a criticism by any means):
    Okay - it looks as though Ken simply won't reply with any coherent and concise answers to the questions that were put to him, that's his prerogative but in choosing to avoid the direct questions makes it look as though there is something that he is afraid of. My guess is that this is a lack of faith in the trend guesses that his methods generate. I do say "well done" to get the reputation to where it is at the moment through careful media management. However it does look as though his lack of openness and clarity to those that can give proper and coherent constructive criticism of those forecasts means that there is a fear that the inaccuracies (that others have seen and described in this thread) will be defined and in the open - making it harder to sell future weather guesses to people.

    Ken: Okay, fair enough if your forecast methods are general trends, without any great detail in them. It's probably unfair to ask you to prove your forcasting methods by making an open forecast for particular days that can be correlated with Met Eireann statistics. It would be fairer to compare your forecast to the Donegal Postman, or Joe Bastardi's ultra long range guesses. Out of interest in full disclosure to your customers, do you state on your pay-for-forecast the disclaimers that you have hinted at here (location error, date error, rainfall range, temperature range - pretty much everything that details a forecast)?

    It's pretty obvious that your lack of direct responses to direct questions are a little worrying. Why not do a "past performance" item on your webpage that can be seen by prospective customers - e.g. comparing 2007-2009 graphs of rainfall/temperature/sunshine etc. as predicted by yourself and comparing to the actual values that Met Eireann published afterwards - this could be fantastic advertising for you if the data is good. If the matches are not that good, well then that is an indicator of the value of the forecast...

    (as an aside - I choose a nickname here as it was related to a username that I had on a Unix system where my own name had already been used. It's a kayaking term if anyone is interested. I would say the exact same things to your face if it is in fact the real Ken Ring that is posting here - even real names are nothing but nicknames here and a nom-de-plume is really an incorrect term for a computer username).

    Regards
    Cathal.


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    #233
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Yep, I think Su & ken should kiss and make up. C'mon guys, waddasay? :p

    Seriously though, I am enjoying this thread. Learning a lot from both guys. Both seem to be at their best when they are a bit contentious.

    But what do you do with someone who won't accept facts that are put in front of him and dodges every question that's put to him. No, I've no wish to repeat myself over and over every time, plus anyway I'm off on holidays from Wednesday. So I guess you'll be left to learning from him for 10 days, but beware, everything he says is the wrong way around (eg. towering cumulus, etc)


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    #234
    Popoutman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    Villain wrote: »
    On your forecast for this June and July as I said previously you forecast no rain from 22nd June to the 5th July. We have 1mm in many places already today and rain for forecast for the coming days, you still stand over your forecast?

    Hmm. Interesting.

    I've to make it clear that there is no axe to grind by me at all. I'm interested in the value of the long range predicitons and the accuracy therein. I'm curious as to why there is such a problem with the criticism of the past forecasts. Why is that?


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    #235
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Popoutman wrote: »
    Hmm. Interesting.

    I've to make it clear that there is no axe to grind by me at all. I'm interested in the value of the long range predicitons and the accuracy therein. I'm curious as to why there is such a problem with the criticism of the past forecasts. Why is that?

    I have no axe to grind either, Ken seems to think I'm some meteorologist who has an issue with Long-term forecasting.

    The fact is nothing could be further from the truth, I am simply a weather enthusiast who likes to study and observe weather. Snow is my passion if someone could find a way of forecasting even trends in relation to Snow years out I would be very excited and gladly pay for the information.

    Since I setup my website and got some publicity I have been asked by several people what I thought of Ken's forecasts and I wasn't in a position to give an answer as I hadn't studied his forecast, so I purchased a years foreacst and have been given my feedback here.


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    #236
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Villain wrote: »
    Snow is my passion if someone could find a way of forecasting even trends in relation to Snow years out I would be very excited and gladly pay for the information.

    Send me a tenner Villian and I will do up one for you. It will not be based on any meteorlogical evidence or trends but for a nominal fee will cover all the snow Carlow could ever dream of. Here is a snippet.

    'Winter 2010-11 forecast: T'will be snowing buckets in Carlow, near Villain's house. A polar low will probably develop over the Dolmen County at 4.15pm on December 17th. MJ Nolan will declare a State of Emergency and Bod Geldof will organise Live Aid 2010."

    Sorry I can't be more specific. :p


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    #237
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Popoutman wrote: »
    (personal observation - not a criticism by any means):
    ..Ken ..won't reply with ..coherent and concise answers ..there is something that he is afraid of. ..this is a lack of faith ..his lack of openness and clarity ..means that there is a fear that the inaccuracies ..will be defined and in the open - making it harder to sell future weather guesses to people..
    Man, sure glad you weren't criticising!! What are you like then?
    Popoutman wrote: »
    (Ken: Okay, fair enough if your forecast methods are general trends. It's probably unfair to ask you to prove your forcasting methods by making an open forecast for particular days that can be correlated with Met Eireann statistics. It would be fairer to compare your forecast to the Donegal Postman, or Joe Bastardi's ultra long range guesses. Out of interest in full disclosure to your customers, do you state on your pay-for-forecast the disclaimers that you have hinted at here (location error, date error, rainfall range, temperature range - pretty much everything that details a forecast)?
    .
    I have a discalimer on my website, been there since 2007 so ample time for all to read it. http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=237&type=home
    I have nothing to hide, to hide from, to fail to face up to, or to avoid. But what passes for coherent questioning on this thread is often nothing more than personal attack. If I avoid that I do so because it is tedious and time wasting. Maybe others haven't, but I just have better things to do.

    www.predictweather.com


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    #238
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Kenring wrote: »
    Well now, certainly didn't take Su long to return. He said DEFINITELY going away, recent post. Didn't he? So now we learn he actually is going away, was planning it all along, but on holiday!! Didn't he try to suggest his absence was going to be because of something I said (or didn't) :confused:
    I notice he is doing it within what I have said in this thread and others in boards.ie will be the holiday season finishing about July 9th. .

    www.predictweather.com

    This is just turning nasty and personal now. :(


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    #239
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Su Campu wrote: »
    .So I guess you'll be left to learning from him for 10 days, but beware, everything he says is the wrong way around (eg. towering cumulus, etc)

    I know I come across as being thick, but I do know how a cumulonimbus is formed! :pac:

    Enjoy your holiday. :)


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    #240
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Send me a tenner Villian and I will do up one for you. It will not be based on any meteorlogical evidence or trends but for a nominal fee will cover all the snow Carlow could ever dream of. Here is a snippet.

    'Winter 2010-11 forecast: T'will be snowing buckets in Carlow, near Villain's house. A polar low will probably develop over the Dolmen County at 4.15pm on December 17th. MJ Nolan will declare a State of Emergency and Bod Geldof will organise Live Aid 2010."

    Sorry I can't be more specific. :p
    I can tell you when there is potential for both precipitation+subzero temps, without which there can not be snow and with which there may be snow. It seemed to be good enough for the management of Australia's biggest skifield to employ me to tell them, on the strength of which they opened first in Australia and scooped the early trade in ski services, when other fields were still humming and harring over opening dates.

    www.predictweather.com


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    #241
    Popoutman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    Kenring wrote: »
    Man, sure glad you weren't criticising!! What are you like then?
    No need to get shirty ;) I was trying to get the point across to you that it wasn't a *personal* criticism of you - this is a different thing to that of your forecasts and their apparent lack of accuracy. I do suppose though that the criticism of your responses or lack thereof to all of the questions on this thread could be construed as criticism of you, but I would have thought that you could seperate any personal attacks from those criticism of your methods and responses..
    I have no reason to be personally critical of you, Ken. However I have every reason to freely ask you about your product and your product performance, and I hope that you would be able to defend your product here where there are many interested people waiting for your responses.
    Kenring wrote: »
    I have a discalimer on my website, been there since 2007 so ample time for all to read it. http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=237&type=home
    I'm sorry but that rather rambling essay is not a disclaimer that is concise or easy to read. Of those 1681 words published on January 2010, there is a weather forecast included, some reference to a historical review with background explanations etc.
    I would have expected a disclaimer to state the likes of:
    • All rain forecasts may or may not happen.
    • Geographically-defined events may be up to 100km off.
    • Time-defined events may be up to a week off.
    • Temperatures are a best guess and may not follow reality.

    That's a disclaimer.
    Kenring wrote: »
    I have nothing to hide, to hide from, to fail to face up to, or to avoid.
    Actually you do... Paying customers with grievances are things that you are apparently hiding from and failing to face up to in this thread. You've had direct questions about rainfall that never happened, rainfall that was predicted that never materialised, and with inaccurate winter forecasts, all of which you have failed to respond to.

    Kenring wrote: »
    But what passes for coherent questioning on this thread is often nothing more than personal attack. If I avoid that I do so because it is tedious and time wasting. Maybe others haven't, but I just have better things to do.
    I agree that there may be inappropriately-phrased questions by some people on this thread, but I think that there is a failure to differentiate between a real question about the methods and results that you use including the questions about the lack of responses to a question like that, and questions that are actually pointed attacks.
    See the difference between these two as an example (please note - no offense meant, I'm only trying to prove a point here. The phrases below are not meant at all as a thinly-veiled attack, only as an example):
    "Ken, You're predictions are not worth the money paid for them - they are inaccurate and I would like you to explain why they are wrong"
    and
    "Ken, you are a chancer trying to sell bad predictions - please explain yourself!"
    The first is a criticism of your predictions, the second is a personal attack.

    I hope that clears up where I am coming from with my thread participation.


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