Ken Ring predictions

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

No need to get shirty
.

I wasn't. You were and I responded. Case of pot calling kettle black.

Popoutman wrote: »

I was trying to get the point across to you that it wasn't a *personal* criticism of you. I do suppose though that the criticism of your responses or lack thereof to all of the questions on this thread could be construed as criticism of you, but I would have thought that you could seperate any personal attacks from those criticism of your methods and responses..

Not when I'm spoken to as rudely as you did..

Popoutman wrote: »

I have no reason to be personally critical of you, Ken. .

So you keep saying, and yet keep right on hammering away.

Popoutman wrote: »

However I have every reason to freely ask you about your product and your product performance, and I hope that you would be able to defend your product here where there are many interested people waiting for your responses..

Do you do that before you buy a tube of toothpaste? On my website under Free Publications you will find back-copies of 7-package reports months this year for Ireland. They can be analysed by anyone prepared enough to do it. It's all free. I have no need to provide any more. to ask me to is unreasonable and a waste of my time.

Popoutman wrote: »

I'm sorry but that rather rambling essay is not a disclaimer that is concise or easy to read. Of those 1681 words published on January 2010, there is a weather forecast included, some reference to a historical review with background explanations etc.

I would have expected a disclaimer to state the likes of:

• All rain forecasts may or may not happen.
• Geographically-defined events may be up to 100km off.
• Time-defined events may be up to a week off.
• Temperatures are a best guess and may not follow reality.

That's a disclaimer.
.

Well, there you go, you wrote it yourself! Again, why are you trying to waste my time with something you can do equally well, certainly well enough to satisfy you?

Popoutman wrote: »

Actually you do... Paying customers with grievances are things that you are apparently hiding from and failing to face up to in this thread. You've had direct questions about rainfall that never happened, rainfall that was predicted that never materialised, and with inaccurate winter forecasts, all of which you have failed to respond to..

Well, I dispute all of them, and have responded to most that I can think of. But I do have other things to do. Sounds like you wouldn't be satisfied unless I spent my whole working day writing out minutae for you, answering every question no matter how silly and unreasonable, and explaining every full stop and comma I have ever written. I do try to reply to most here, but it is time consuming and I don't need groaners telling me I don't write enough on this thread.

Popoutman wrote: »

I agree that there may be inappropriately-phrased questions by some people on this thread, but I think that there is a failure to differentiate between a real question about the methods and results that you use including the questions about the lack of responses to a question like that, and questions that are actually pointed attacks.
.

I put you in the class of the unreasonables. Examine your own posts. They are full of personal stuff about your opinion of me - what I should be saying, how and to whom.

www.predictweather.com

Villain

Villain wrote: »

Lets forget NZ for a minute, are you qestioning the accuracy of Met Éireanns weather stations? If so on what basis?

On your forecast for this June and July as I said previously you forecast no rain from 22nd June to the 5th July. We have 1mm in many places already today and rain for forecast for the coming days, you still stand over your forecast?

Any response Ken?

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Lets forget NZ for a minute, are you qestioning the accuracy of Met Éireanns weather stations? If so on what basis?

On your forecast for this June and July as I said previously you forecast no rain from 22nd June to the 5th July. We have 1mm in many places already today and rain for forecast for the coming days, you still stand over your forecast?

I don't recall analysing ME's weather stations. Someone making it up again. I said temperature is a farce and is unmeasurable for any distance beyond the glass of the thermometer bulb.

1mm is..rain? On the west coast of our South island they get 300mm in one day. That's rain. I wouldn't even call 1mm a shower, I'd say someone sneezed from over the hill..
As for Carlow, I had chance of rain from overcast skies on 25th. Then little or no chance of it for about 10 days. There may always be convective showers around summer full moons, because the latter are generally hot, but no storm systems/heavy rain dumps are expected by me anywhere in Ireland. I always stand by potential weather that I have predicted.

www.predictweather.com

DOFS

To be fair more rain has fallen in the past 24 hours (this is up tp 1pm today)

Valentia Observatory 12.0 mm
Connaught Airport 6.0 mm
Mace Head 5.9 mm
Shannon Airport 4.0 mm
Ballyhaise, Cavan 3.1 mm
Johnstown Castle 3.1 mm
Malin Head 3.0 mm
Cork Airport 2.2 mm
Gurteen 2.1 mm
Mullingar 2.0 mm
Sherkin Island 2.0 mm
Belmullet 0.3 mm
Oak Park, Carlow 0.3 mm
Casement Aerodrome 0.0 mm
Dublin Airport 0.0 mm

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I don't recall analysing ME's weather stations. Someone making it up again. I said temperature is a farce and is unmeasurable for any distance beyond the glass of the thermometer bulb.

Ok so do you agree that temps recorded by the Irish Met Stations are accurate?

Kenring wrote: »

1mm is..rain? On the west coast of our South island they get 300mm in one day. That's rain. I wouldn't even call 1mm a shower, I'd say someone sneezed from over the hill..
As for Carlow, I had chance of rain from overcast skies on 25th. Then little or no chance of it for about 10 days. There may always be convective showers around summer full moons, because the latter are generally hot, but no storm systems/heavy rain dumps are expected by me anywhere in Ireland. I always stand by potential weather that I have predicted.

1mm is rain yes and as DOFS pointed out the amount has increased a lot in areas since my original post and we have up to 40mm forecast in some parts later in the week, are you saying you stand over your forecast and it won't rain in Ireland this week?

Can I post the June 2010 Rain distribution charts I bought from you here?

Popoutman

Ken, I do apologise for any implied tone in my previous posts. No offense intended - genuinely. I see that you are frustrated by some of posts here, and I understand that.

Let me start again, this time trying to be a little more sensitive so as not to appear to be personally attacking.

I will this criticism to the to actual forecast that you have previously predicted, and its failure compared to the actual conditions.

How can you account for the rain that we are now experiencing when this is compared to your forecast saying that there would be no rain for this period?

Even accounting for your disclaimer of a few days either side, and location of up to 100km away, this would appear to be an incorrect forecast.

What is your response?

Cathal.

Popoutman

Villain wrote: »

Can I post the June 2010 Rain distribution charts I bought from you here?

If you have simply paid for the forecast there is nothing to stop you displaying excerpts from your forecast, as there isn't a contract or an NDA in place that prevents the distribution of what you own. As far as I am aware, you can't distribute more than an excerpt or a reduction without running foul of copyright issues, but when correctly cited you should have no problem with a small portion akin to quotes or a passage from a document.

It is probably not considerable as commercially-sensitive information, and if it is then there should have been an NDA associated with it.

Popoutman

Kenring wrote: »

Well, there you go, you wrote it yourself!

I wouldn't charge you for the generation of that disclaimer if you choose to improve the website with its addition. </tongue-in-cheek>

please note it's a joke - I'm trying to lighten the mood here....

On a more normal note, is the content of that disclaimer accurate? What would you change in it to better reflect what one could expect from the forecasts?

Popoutman

Kenring wrote: »

I said temperature is a farce and is unmeasurable for any distance beyond the glass of the thermometer bulb.

I'm sorry for the apparent flood of posts, but I feel that I have to try to clear this one up - there appears to be room for confusion here.

Ken, if I read you correctly, then you are saying that there is no point in measuring any of the meteorologically-relevant factors, as they are only locally measured at the point of measurement and this (by implication) statess that these would be no indicator of the conditions in the greater lcoal area? Why then would the national weather services install such monitoring stations around the place?

I would have thought that having the temperatures being monitored would be a remarkably core set of numbers for local condition monitoring - not just the temperature, but the difference between the wet and the dry temperature.

What do you think?
(if I've appeared as offensive in these posts, please point it out so I can improve my posting style and offend less people with it.)

Cathal.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Ok so do you agree that temps recorded by the Irish Met Stations are accurate?
.

I have no idea of the criteria of accuracy - yours, ME's or an old lady passing in the street.

Villain wrote: »

1mm is rain yes and as DOFS pointed out the amount has increased a lot in areas since my original post and we have up to 40mm forecast in some parts later in the week, are you saying you stand over your forecast and it won't rain in Ireland this week??

I repeat that convection is possible on a summer full moon. But I don't call anything below 10mm: rain. Showers maybe. I stand by all my forecasts. I repeat I claim 80-85%, which means 2 months in a year may be out. I resent the persecutory nature of this questioning. The idea is an attempt to discredit my work.

Villain wrote: »

Can I post the June 2010 Rain distribution charts I bought from you here?

Of course not. You are a meteorologist and you admitted you bought my product just to answer questions from aquaintances. I do not do forecasting as tools for an enemy with a stated bias. In that regard you tricked me. My figure-estimates are intellectual property and only go to the public domain if I choose for that to happen.

I would ask moderators to step in here, lest a law gets to be broken. it is one thing to ask me questions about my method and I will gladly answer them. But if what I sell gets given away by all and sundry in any forum for any purpose it undermines my hard work and harms the income potential of my family. For this reason countries have laws about IP and protection for small businesses trying to make an honest living by providing a service. If moderators cannot see their way clear to reigning-in these nefarious intentions of Villain (aptly named), then they should consider closing this thread.

www.predictweather.com

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

If you have simply paid for the forecast there is nothing to stop you displaying excerpts from your forecast, as there isn't a contract or an NDA in place that prevents the distribution of what you own. As far as I am aware, you can't distribute more than an excerpt or a reduction without running foul of copyright issues, but when correctly cited you should have no problem with a small portion akin to quotes or a passage from a document.

It is probably not considerable as commercially-sensitive information, and if it is then there should have been an NDA associated with it.

There is, it's on my website. Everything on my website is copyright-protected.

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

I'm sorry for the apparent flood of posts, but I feel that I have to try to clear this one up - there appears to be room for confusion here.

Ken, if I read you correctly, then you are saying that there is no point in measuring any of the meteorologically-relevant factors, as they are only locally measured at the point of measurement and this (by implication) statess that these would be no indicator of the conditions in the greater lcoal area? Why then would the national weather services install such monitoring stations around the place?.

Because they have livings to make, same as why people train to be scientologists, ghost-busters, colour-therapists and poker players. They like what they do and they find some demand for the service. Doesn't mean any of them are right or wrong.

Popoutman wrote: »

I would have thought that having the temperatures being monitored would be a remarkably core set of numbers for local condition monitoring - not just the temperature, but the difference between the wet and the dry temperature.

What do you think?
(if I've appeared as offensive in these posts, please point it out so I can improve my posting style and offend less people with it.)

Cathal.

I think not. Thermometers every metre, taking measurements every second may be useful, but there is too much variance for it to be practical. It would be like tagging every drop of seawater to get the true temperature of the ocean. And for what??

ch750536

This thread is getting poor. Seems some people don't understand the uses of long term forecasting.

An LTF is useful for planning major things that need the right weather. These are things that have to be done, either the right weather assists or allows the thing to be done.

Kens forecasts offer the more probable than the less probable. Somebody needing a dry week in September and make a choice based on Ken saying probably more dry at the end of the month than the start. This gives them something.

He also looks at weather events, like storms, heavy precip, ice etc. Things that are forecastable unlike snow, which can be tricky.

So what you get is a forecast that gives most probable indicators for the major events of the weather and nothing more.

To then say 'you said there would be nor rain, we had 1mm' is misunderstanding the forecast. We all know that weather is complex, sometimes he will be plain wrong, sometimes he will be near the mark, sometimes spot on.

People here need to be far more objective to what he is saying. Lets assume he know nothing at all about weather but is 100% accurate, would you still discredit him? If you wish to discredit him take a look at the historical forecasts, judge them with a wide brush & then compare them to the accuracy of other long term forecasters as this is the only way.

It may be he is 10% accurate, if everyone else is 9% accurate that makes him the best regardless of his methods.

I like listening to any forecaster, including the local farmers and their 'if it blows on the front door, rain be coming' techniques, lets not ridicule and villify without properly formulating an argument based on his performance and the performance of his competitors.

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

Ken, I do apologise for any implied tone in my previous posts. No offense intended - genuinely. I see that you are frustrated by some of posts here, and I understand that.

Let me start again, this time trying to be a little more sensitive so as not to appear to be personally attacking.

I will this criticism to the to actual forecast that you have previously predicted, and its failure compared to the actual conditions.

How can you account for the rain that we are now experiencing when this is compared to your forecast saying that there would be no rain for this period?

Even accounting for your disclaimer of a few days either side, and location of up to 100km away, this would appear to be an incorrect forecast.

What is your response?

Cathal.

Apology accepted. One swallow doesn't make a summer. Sure I'll be wrong occasionally, but so what? Are you trying to prove that because there is rain and I said dry on this occasion that I am now to be ordered off the planet by the righteous weather police, who called something wet and nasty a BBQ summer not so long ago and people didn't get too upset?

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I repeat that convection is possible on a summer full moon. But I don't call anything below 10mm: rain. Showers maybe. I stand by all my forecasts. I repeat I claim 80-85%, which means 2 months in a year may be out. I resent the persecutory nature of this questioning. The idea is an attempt to discredit my work.

Its not an attempt to discredit your work, its a discussion on your forecasts and how accurate or not they are.

Kenring wrote: »

Of course not. You are a meteorologist and you admitted you bought my product just to answer questions from aquaintances. I do not do forecasting as tools for an enemy with a stated bias. In that regard you tricked me. My figure-estimates are intellectual property and only go to the public domain if I choose for that to happen.

Ken I am not a meteorologist and have said that on several occasions, not sure why you keep saying I am. I didn't trick anyone, I purchased a service to review it and give informed opinion to those who questioned me on it.

Kenring wrote: »

I would ask moderators to step in here, lest a law gets to be broken. it is one thing to ask me questions about my method and I will gladly answer them. But if what I sell gets given away by all and sundry in any forum for any purpose it undermines my hard work and harms the income potential of my family. For this reason countries have laws about IP and protection for small businesses trying to make an honest living by providing a service. If moderators cannot see their way clear to reigning-in these nefarious intentions of Villain (aptly named), then they should consider closing this thread.

There is no need to for anyone to step in, I have no intention of posting the content without your permission, I have asked your permission twice and haven't posted anything, if I was a Villain I think I would have posted the content already and not sought your permission.

FYI the username Villain comes from me being a supporter of Aston Villa football club.

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

I repeat that convection is possible on a summer full moon. But I don't call anything below 10mm: rain. Showers maybe. I stand by all my forecasts. I repeat I claim 80-85%, which means 2 months in a year may be out. I resent the persecutory nature of this questioning. The idea is an attempt to discredit my work.

In Ireland it can rain all day and only produce 1-2mm. Earlier in this thread, when someone said you had rain forecast for a certain date and it did not rain, you said that you also include mist, fog and dew as rain. Now, in my limited experience, you will never get 10mm of dew. So if there is dew, and you count this as fulfilling your precipitation forecast, does that not contradict the line in bold above?

Villain

ch750536 wrote: »

To then say 'you said there would be nor rain, we had 1mm' is misunderstanding the forecast. We all know that weather is complex, sometimes he will be plain wrong, sometimes he will be near the mark, sometimes spot on.

Just to clarify I said there was already 1mm with up to 40mm forecasted, I just wanted to know if he stood over his forecast for the next week.

ch750536 wrote: »

People here need to be far more objective to what he is saying. Lets assume he know nothing at all about weather but is 100% accurate, would you still discredit him? If you wish to discredit him take a look at the historical forecasts, judge them with a wide brush & then compare them to the accuracy of other long term forecasters as this is the only way.

It may be he is 10% accurate, if everyone else is 9% accurate that makes him the best regardless of his methods.

I like listening to any forecaster, including the local farmers and their 'if it blows on the front door, rain be coming' techniques, lets not ridicule and villify without properly formulating an argument based on his performance and the performance of his competitors.

I'm not trying to discredit him, I am simply trying to discuss his forecasts, when he is wrong he trys to use a lot of excuses rather than accept he has got it wrong.

I have no problem with anyone offering a LTF, like you I love listening to farmers giving old wives tails and saying that certain signs mean x. However those farmers don't charge for that information and they don't use every excuse available when its doesn't happen to try and protect their reputation and protect their revenue stream.

The forecast Ken gave for last week and next week was very clear and anyone using it for the reasons you stated would have expected 0 rain and yet its been raining already today and the forecast is for plenty more.

Su Campu

Originally Posted by Kenring
Well now, certainly didn't take Su long to return. He said DEFINITELY going away, recent post. Didn't he? So now we learn he actually is going away, was planning it all along, but on holiday!! Didn't he try to suggest his absence was going to be because of something I said (or didn't)
I notice he is doing it within what I have said in this thread and others in boards.ie will be the holiday season finishing about July 9th. .

www.predictweather.com

I never said I was going away ken, I said I would not be wasting any more of my time with the so-called "debate" on THIS thread, posting and reposting the same scientific facts for you to try and twist around. I've still two days left before I go on holidays so I'll be logging on plenty and contributing to other posts before then, just not this one.

Incidently, re your "holiday season" thing. I'm not holidaying in Ireland, so that was a useless point you made. I'll be visiting in-laws in Sardinia (that's in Italy), you wouldn't have a forecast for there would you??! :pac: (an attempt at a joke Ken, please accept it for what it is)

As I said, I don't have time to be writing and rewriting the same explanations of how things work but what I can do is list a few references for you to read. These are the books I have studied and online resources I use. Read these and you should be up to speed on lots of things, including why towering cumuli are warmer than their environment, among others.

BOOKS

Meteorology for Scientists and Engineers
An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology
The Weather Forecasting Handbook
The Weather Forecasting Red Book
The Weather Map Handbook
El Niño: Klima macht Geschichte


Online resources
WeatherFAQs
The Weather Prediction
SatRep Manual
ESTOFEX

Regarding your forecast for today, if you said no rain then you were wrong, and should simply say so. It's ridiculous to say that you don't class <10mm to be rain....retract that statement before you lose all credibility, please. It's been raining over most parts of the country for most of the day, and the 18Z synoptics will show you how much. The title of this thread is "Ken Ring Predictions", so if you wish to take part then you must discuss your predictions.

EDIT: 24hr summary to 18Z
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Irel&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2010&mes=06&day=28&hora=18&ndays=1&Send=send

ch750536

Villain wrote: »

I have no problem with anyone offering a LTF, like you I love listening to farmers giving old wives tails and saying that certain signs mean x. However those farmers don't charge for that information and they don't use every excuse available when its doesn't happen to try and protect their reputation and protect their revenue stream.

The forecast Ken gave for last week and next week was very clear and anyone using it for the reasons you stated would have expected 0 rain and yet its been raining already today and the forecast is for plenty more.

Do you have the same issues with people buying other low brand products? Buyer beware, do your homework. How many other suppliers come to these boards to discuss their products? We have an opportunity here, lets not scare him away until we know he is poor, opposed to just thinking he is.

Villain

ch750536 wrote: »

Do you have the same issues with people buying other low brand products? Buyer beware, do your homework. How many other suppliers come to these boards to discuss their products? We have an opportunity here, lets not scare him away until we know he is poor, opposed to just thinking he is.

Just because someone comes on boards doesn't mean we shouldn't question and debate his product. If people want to buy Ken's forecast that's up to them.

I'm giving feedback on my purchase and trying to debate with Ken the issues I have found, that's all nothing less or nothing more.

Duiske

Great thread this, despite the odd few barbed comments sneaking in.

Ken, there has been quite a bit of discussion on this thread about your "error margin" for your predictions. On the first page of this thread (post 17) you stated the following.

Kenring wrote: »

You don't have to buy my reports. They have a 1-2 day error factor. I admit it and I challenge any weather service, from two years away, to do better. You want 2 hours error, no more, over two years? What service gives that?

That seems to be at odds with what you said to Matt Cooper on the 13th of April this year. Matt asked you was it possible, for example, that you could predict rain for Kerry on a particular day in August. You said that not only could you predict the day, but also the time of day. Why no mention of the 1-2 day error margin ?

Podcast here. The part of the discussion i am refering to starts at 2 mins into the interview.

Cherrycola

Anyone care to predict what the weather will be like from Aug 15th to 22nd? Im on holidays that week!


Should i pack wellies or sunblock?

thetonynator

Listen to the podcast ^^^^

Cherrycola

Do i have to? :P

Cherrycola

Oh, August 16th to 21st-ish looking good! :eek::D

But we are meant to be having good weather this week too, not in the midlands we're not, p*ssing rain here at the mo.

I think i'll pack both!

thetonynator

Cherrycola wrote: »

Oh, August 16th to 21st-ish looking good! :eek::D

But we are meant to be having good weather this week too, not in the midlands we're not, p*ssing rain here at the mo.

I think i'll pack both!

Read the rest of this thread first, then decide if you trust Kens predicions.

Cherrycola

Cherrycola wrote: »

Oh, August 16th to 21st-ish looking good! :eek::D

But we are meant to be having good weather this week too, not in the midlands we're not, p*ssing rain here at the mo.

I think i'll pack both!

Kinda got that.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Read the rest of this thread first, then decide if you trust Kens predicions.

Up until a few days ago the summer had panned out as I had generally predicted. Perhaps the cloud and rain that I said would be in a week or so's time has arrived prematurely as a result of full moon skewing, too early to tell. So far, only people on this thread seem to think I am inaccurate. They are hung up on day and time, met-thinking, not longrange awareness.

K-9

Kenring wrote: »

Up until a few days ago the summer had panned out as I had generally predicted. Perhaps the cloud and rain that I said would be in a week or so's time has arrived prematurely as a result of full moon skewing, too early to tell. So far, only people on this thread seem to think I am inaccurate. They are hung up on day and time, met-thinking, not longrange awareness.

Ken, do you stand over your podcast or not?

Kenring

Cherrycola wrote: »

Anyone care to predict what the weather will be like from Aug 15th to 22nd? Im on holidays that week!


Should i pack wellies or sunblock?

Mostly dry, not all that sunny, some counties may reach 20C.
To be specific go to
http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Default.aspx
click on One Week under Forecasts