Enda's And Richard's Support

Wide Road

Does anyone have the numbers on the leadership battle, mainly the backbenchers. We all know about Leo and Ml Ring etc but does anyone have any info regarding the lesser known fg td's?

maynooth_rules

According to the Mail today, there were 27 confirmed Endas, 19 confirmed Brutons and 24 fence sitters. Any particular backbenchers you want to know about?? save me writing them all up here

johngalway

Has Padraic McCormack, Galway West, declared for either camp yet?

Wide Road

maynooth_rules wrote: »

According to the Mail today, there were 27 confirmed Endas, 19 confirmed Brutons and 24 fence sitters. Any particular backbenchers you want to know about?? save me writing them all up here

The 2 Tipperary td's, Tom Hayes TS and Noel Coonan TN.

Mickjg

Have either of the Clare TD's said who they're for? I presume that Breen is.for Kenny. I've had him talk about him lovingly on my door step/

mike65

Has anyone checked the geographic spread of the two camps supporters. Is FG becoming split between East and West (or Town and Country)?

Sulmac

At quick glance, Richard seems to have more support among the younger front bench members (Varadkar, Hayes, Enright and Coveney) as well as the two female TDs (Enright and Mitchell).

Enda's support in the front bench is from the older members.

Could be a bit of an "age gap" within the party.

allthedoyles

Sulmac wrote: »

At quick glance, Richard seems to have more support among the younger front bench members (Varadkar, Hayes, Enright and Coveney) as well as the two female TDs (Enright and Mitchell).
Enda's support in the front bench is from the older members.

Could be a bit of an "age gap" within the party.

It looks like Bruton is getting the support of the younger members .................But yet Kenny is only 2 years older than Bruton .

Maybe the younger members see Bruton as a soft touch .

Annasopra

I think that Andrew Doyle will be backing Richard Bruton

Godge

looks like Bruton has the younger urban and female supporters while Kenny has the older, rural, male TDs. Given that FG (like FF) has more of the latter categories especially when you include Senators and MEPs, he might be able to squeak home.

If the vote is narrow, it will only cause more trouble. The 4 MEPs are backing Kenny. What if the vote is 4 or less? Ditto if Kenny has most of the Senators. How could Kenny continue if the majority of his TDs, the ones who sit behind him and listen to him every day in the Dail, don't support him?

Sulmac

From today's Irish Times:

Motion Of Confidence In Enda Kenny

Wed, Jun 16, 2010

For, against and undecided in the party

Expected Kenny Supporters

34

Enda Kenny. Phil Hogan. Alan Shatter. Joe Carey. Bernard Allen. PJ Sheahan. Dinny McGinley. James Reilly. Seán Barrett. Paul Connaughton. Jimmy Deenihan. Tom Sheahan. Bernard Durkan. Charlie Flanagan. Dan Neville. Catherine Byrne. James Bannon. John O'Mahony. Michael Ring. Shane McEntee. Frank Feighan. John Perry. Paul Kehoe. Sen Liam Twomey. Sen Paddy Burke. Sen Frances Fitzgerald. Sen Joe O'Reilly. Jim Higgins, MEP. Mairead McGuinness, MEP. Sean Kelly, MEP. Gay Mitchell, MEP. Sen Maurice Cummins. Sen Paudie Coffey. Sen Ciaran Cannon.

Expected Kenny Opponents

26

Richard Bruton. Denis Naughten. Olivia Mitchell, Olwyn Enright. Simon Coveney. Brian Hayes. Leo Varadkar. Billy Timmins. Fergus O'Dowd. Michael Creed. Lucinda Creighton. John Deasy. Senator John Paul Phelan. Senator Paul Bradford. Joe McHugh. Ulick Burke. Pat Breen. Michael Noonan. Damien English. Tom Hayes. Michael D'Arcy. Jim O'Keeffe. Andrew Doyle. Senator Pascal Donohoe. Senator Eugene Regan. Senator Nicky McFadden.

Unknown Or Claimed By Both Sides

10

Kieran O’Donnell. Deirdre Clune. Terence Flanagan. Pádraic McCormack (party chairman).

Fidelma Healy-Eames. Noel Coonan. David Stanton. Seymour Crawford. Senator Paul Coughlan.

Senator Jerry Buttimer.

© 2010 The Irish Times

Should be important to note that Fine Gael elects its leader through an electoral college-type system, with the parliamentary party holding 65% of the votes, members 25% and councillors 10%. First they have to get through the motion of confidence, though.

Wide Road

Sulmac wrote: »

From today's Irish Times:



Should be important to note that Fine Gael elects its leader through an electoral college-type system, with the parliamentary party holding 65% of the votes, members 25% and councillors 10%. First they have to get through the motion of confidence, though.

Thanks for that list. I'm a little surprised that Tom Hayes is on the Richard side. No surprise re Noel Coonan, he's on the fence at the moment. Things could change by Wed evening. TD's will have to come out and declare their interests.

gandalf

Well if Enda Kenny doesn't get around 75% support he is finished. If it is nearly 50-50 then the party could split and this could turn very nasty indeed.

If he truly cares about FG over his ambition then he would realise that he has no choice but to stand down. I see that he is considering this being hinted in some of the papers today.

Laminations

gandalf wrote: »

Well if Enda Kenny doesn't get around 75% support he is finished. If it is nearly 50-50 then the party could split and this could turn very nasty indeed.

If he truly cares about FG over his ambition then he would realise that he has no choice but to stand down. I see that he is considering this being hinted in some of the papers today.

I agree, and there is little chance he gets 75%, and even if he miraculously did, public opinion is against him not only with his ~20% approval ratings in the polls but also in recent opinion polls

Irish Time poll
Do you think Fine Gael needs a new leader?

75% YES

25% NO
The Irish Times Poll...today.


Opinion poll from p.ie

Enda Kenny 761 35.61% Richard Bruton 852 39.87% Another Fine Gael TD 524 24.52%


so for the sake of the party and country the Kenny supporters should rally behind Bruton. I dont respect a party that bows to public opinion on policy issues but on governance issues it is clear people dont want Enda so its hypoctrical for him to stay on in the face of negative opinion while bashing FF for having no mandate.

fifth

Ugh..it's gonna be around 60-40 to kenny which means I smell a split on the cards.. and who knows.. a new political party led by Bruton?

What happens policy-wise if they defect and create a new party.. a lot of the FG economic policies are brutons..

Sleepy

I was wondering about that too FunkyFlea. Given that Bruton seems to have the young blood of the parliamentary party on his side could we see a Fine Gael offshoot that would keep many of their sensible policies on electoral reform, reigning in public expenditure etc. whilst ditching the conservatism of many of the older god-fearing, support the farmers whatever the cost elements of the party?

Nehaxak

It might well do the country and politics itself here, the world of good if this FG vote split the party with Bruton and his supporters deciding to walk away and create a new political option for the people of the country to vote for.

To many people (in my limited heresay opinion) there is very little difference between FF/FG other than old civil war type divisions - hard to tell them apart really.

Far as I see it now myself, Bruton and his supporters have 4 choices to make if they lose the vote.

1. Grin and bare it, sit on the backbenches, eventually retiring from politics before or after the next election - as their positions within FG would be worthless from thereon anyway.

2. Each of them quit FG and turn independent.

3. They join Labour, strengthen it and fight for it as the largest party in the next election.

4. Be brave and create a new political party - build from the ground up (my feeling is that they would get a lot of support) and after the next election form a coalition government with Labour, leaving FG out in the cold.

Options 3 and 4 are the only conceivable choices I could see them making if they lose out to Kenny and his supporters.

The best option of all for FG itself is for Enda "I've lovely hair" Kenny to just be a man about it all and step aside without causing any further disruption to their whole party.

Sulmac

Nehaxak wrote: »

3. They join Labour, strengthen it and fight for it as the largest party in the next election.

I can't see the likes of Varadkar and Creighton joining Labour.

dave180

enda has brought the party so far . . irish people as usual look at the way he comes across on tv and if he is 'good to look at on tv' . . . who cares. knowone can possibly say enda would not be a good leader of the country . . . it cant gte much worse than cowan anyway. to turn on your leader like them backstabbers have is a disgrace . . . . . he has got them where they are today . . hwich is on the brink of government . . whether enda is leader or not , fine gael will be the next government , who else is ther? and if anyone uses the argument that he is not liked by the people or he doesnt come across nice or hes not a people person . . . all you have to do is look at the two robbers and con artists that the people loves . . bertie ahern and charles haughey. . . so lets face it , irish people are not a good judge of character . . . enda is a great leader of the party and also WILL be of the country.

Paddyo

irish people are not a good judge of character

The problem is dave180 that it is these same Irish people who vote in elections.

Imagine Fine Gaels results if they also had a leader that was liked by the voters.

Paddyo

fifth

Nehaxak wrote: »

4. Be brave and create a new political party - build from the ground up (my feeling is that they would get a lot of support) and after the next election form a coalition government with Labour, leaving FG out in the cold.


The best option of all for FG itself is for Enda "I've lovely hair" Kenny to just be a man about it all and step aside without causing any further disruption to their whole party.

Any of these really would be the most desirable options, or else we'll have a FG party akin to a dog with a lame leg limping through the next two terms of government with about as much political sway as sinn fein have down south.

I wouldn't buy into the idea of FG's rebels joining Labour, they'll only be cheating themselves anyway as I certainly don't envision labour changing anything about their current set-up to suit Bruton and his boys.

Same goes for turning independant, it must be a rebuilt fine gael or a new party or else fianna fail could slip back up second place without doing anything to earn it.

Change...it's all happened so fast!

rugbyman

To Nehaxak
I quote you

"The best option of all for FG itself is for Enda "I've lovely hair" Kenny to just be a man about it all and step aside without causing any further disruption to their whole party"

something similiar has been said by JohnGalway.


Since it now appears that Bruton had the backing of just over half the front bench, and from the media , appears to have only half of the 70 vote total,

it is strange that you advise Kenny to go, and avoid a ballot rather than suggest that Bruton call off his ,what at this moment ,looks like a not quite strong enough Coup.

On another point I do not think that Bruton was the driving force of this Putsch(spelling?). I think he was talked into it by the rebels/revolting 9.

Regards, Rugbyman

yahoo_moe

Harry McGee's latest numbers (if it goes to tomorrow's vote):

http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/politics/2010/06/16/fine-gael-where-both-sides-are-at-now/ wrote:

SOLID KENNY -

Phil Hogan; Joe Carey; Bernard Allen; Pj Sheahan; Dinny McGinley; James Reilly; Alan Shatter; Catherine Byrne; Sean Barrett; Paul Connaughton; Jimmy Deenihan; Tom Sheahan; Dan Neville; James Bannon; John O’Mahony; Enda Kenny; Michael Ring; Shane McEntee; Frank Feighan; John Perry; Paul Kehoe; Liam Twomey; Paddy Burke; Frances Fitzgerald; Joe O’Reilly; Ciaran Cannon; Maurice Cummins; Jim Higgins; Mairead McGuinness; Sean Kelly; Gay Mitchell

Total: 31

VEERING KENNY

Bernard Durkan; Charlie Flanagan; Paudie Coffey;

Total: 3

KENNY TOTAL: 34

STRONG ANTI-KENNY

Michael Creed; Simon Coveney; Joe McHugh; Richard Bruton; Olivia Mitchell; Lucinda Creighton; Brian Hayes; Leo Varadkar; Ulick Burke; Olwyn Enright; Michael Noonan; Fergus O’Dowd; Damien English; Denis Naughten; Tom Hayes; John Deasy; Michael D’Arcy; Billy Timmins; Andrew Doyle; Paul Bradford; John Paul Phelan; Eugene Regan; Nicky McFadden.

Total: 23

VEERING ANTI-KENNY

Jim O’Keeffe; Pat Breen; Paschal Donohoe;

Total: 3

ANTI-KENNY TOTAL: 26

CLAIMED BY BOTH SIDES/WAVERING/REFUSAL TO SAY:

Seymour Crawford; David Stanton; Deirdre Clune; Terence Flanagan; Padraic McCormack; Kieran O’Donnell; Noel Coonan; Jerry Buttimer; Fidelma Healy Eames; Paul Coghlan

NON-COMMITTED TOTAL: 10

Though I personally wouldn't take any figures as being particularly reliable at the moment - the undecideds/undeclareds make it fairly pointless anyway and there's too much spin around to trust any particular estimate.

Biggins

Laminations wrote: »

...on governance issues it is clear people dont want Enda so its hypocritical for him to stay on in the face of negative opinion...

Side note: O' how I wish that was Cowen (and the government) instead...

Back on topic.
I think there is clearly visible AND undercurrent view that its time for change - just in time for the roll up to the next election.
If change isn't carried out now, there will be repercussions of some sort with a public election vote.
Many will not vote for a leader they presently DON'T like. A number of TD's will be aware of this when voting and thinking ahead to the next election.

yahoo_moe

rugbyman wrote: »

On another point I do not think that Bruton was the driving force of this Putsch(spelling?). I think he was talked into it by the rebels/revolting 9.

I've been wondering something similar - he seemed unprepared in terms of trying to push his candidacy the other day (though he's had long enough to figure out how to sell himself as party leader) and the Olivia Mitchells, etc. seem to have seized on the whole thing more strongly than the man himself.

Though it obviously didn't go ahead without his say-so - even if they'd threatened a heave in, say, Brian Hayes' name, Bruton staying loyal would've put the kibosh on it very quick.

Laminations

Biggins wrote: »

Side note: O' how I wish that was Cowen instead...

It is even clearer that the people dont want Cowen but FF are quite adept at f*cking the country.

Back on topic.
I think there is clearly visible AND undercurrent view that its time for change - just in time for the roll up to the next election.
If change isn't carried out now, there will be repercussions of some sort.

Couldnt agree more. Rumours are that Kenny will step down this evening . Then we need FG to recombine, gather pace, and give the electorate a viable and much needed alternative.

'We listened to the people and cleaned our own house to be the best party we can be, now we'll carry on tackling the big issues you want solved, getting Ireland back on track as an export-driven open market economy, creating jobs and encouraging investment, strengthening infrastructure and dumping FF to the opposition benches for their role in banking failures, Ireland's loss of competitiveness, losing you jobs, and burdening your children with debt. Dont let them off the hook, because we wont"

Eliot Rosewater

It's interesting to see all the MEPs supporting Kenny. Is this because they're a bit immune from Irish politics, and are voting only with stability in mind, as opposed to TDs, who probably have serious concerns with the fate of their own Dail positions under Kenny's "weak" leadership?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Byron85

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Good thing that's the worst of the trilogy. Some of us are rather discerning when it comes to such things.


On topic however, it seems Kenny is losing by the hour.

Fine Gael's Justice Spokesman Charlie Flanagan has indicated that he will vote against Enda Kenny in tomorrow's confidence vote.
It is understood Deputy Flanagan informed Mr Kenny of this decision this afternoon.
Deputy Flanagan told RTÉ News he would not make any public comment on his decision and expressed the hope that the party could move forward in a united way after tomorrow's meeting.
Advertisement

He is the eleventh member of the 19-member front bench nominated by Mr Kenny who has publicly said he has lost confidence in the leadership.
Sources in Richard Bruton's camp said Mr Flanagan's decision marked a decisive shift in the situation.

Earlier, Mr Kenny suffered a blow with the man he appointed acting Finance Spokesman on Monday, Kieran O'Donnell, opting for Mr Bruton.
Former party leader Michael Noonan has refused to say who he will be backing in his party's leadership race.

Biggins

If Enda stays, some election public will not vote for FG for various reasons irrespective of how they feel about FF. Thats been clear for some time.
If change don't happen now and the split continues smouldering up to election time, opposition (with good reason and with enough ammo) will claim "why vote for something that is still broken within itself?"

So those involved have to ask some basic questions.

1. Is change needed?
2. If change is not done, what will be the repercussions at the next election?
3. If change is needed but not done at the right time (too late later maybe to rebuilt just in time for elections), how will it effect personal positions?

Personally I think if change has to happen - NOW - is the time for it to take place.
A year or two (once that is done) in the run up to the next elections, is ample time for FG to reinforce with new vigor, to bring about organising the rid of the unwanted crap that presently sits in government seats.

bijapos

A split would be madness, the FG vote being split into two smaller parties would be a huge advantage to FF, especially in the marginals. Its beginning to sound like FG after shooting themselves in the foot are off trying to buy more ammo for the other foot.

However the vote on Thursday goes FG TDs should learn to shake hands and get down to work together afterwards anything else will only be damaging to themselves.

fayer

The walls are closing in...

From RTE

Charlie Flanagan to vote against Enda Kenny

Fine Gael's Justice Spokesman Charlie Flanagan has indicated that he will vote against Enda Kenny in tomorrow's confidence vote.

It is understood Deputy Flanagan informed Mr Kenny of this decision this afternoon.

Deputy Flanagan told RTÉ News he would not make any public comment on his decision and expressed the hope that the party could move forward in a united way after tomorrow's meeting.

T.W.H Byron Beat me to it.....

Eliot Rosewater

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Perhaps something in that direction. Even if Bruton takes over FG as it is, would this mean a swing toward more liberal policies? In the long term all the auld ones will eventually be gone!! After watching the PDs programme last night I don't fancy the emergence of a new liberal party. Perhaps the best tactic would be to try to lobby for change within FG, as you've said before.

Eliot Rosewater

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

It's interesting to see all the MEPs supporting Kenny. Is this because they're a bit immune from Irish politics, and are voting only with stability in mind, as opposed to TDs, who probably have serious concerns with the fate of their own Dail positions under Kenny's "weak" leadership?

See'ing them on the news yesterday with Máiread McGuinnes nodding like a banshee,it's more of this misguided loyalty syndrome...

There is a reason why people vote in droves for the opposition even if it is a weak one at co council level and at MEP level.
It's to deliver the punishment message to the sitting government.

HOWEVER - that only transfers to the main opposition party in Dáil elections when their leader is seen as a credible Taoiseach and kenny isn't.
So it ends up going to the four winds instead and FG lose out on the most important gain-Dáil seats.

The longer it is taking for kenny and his cohorts not to see the writing on the wall or wake up to peoples perceptions of him by resigning now before tomorrow,the worse it is.

Biggins

fayer wrote: »

The walls are closing in...

...Or afore mentioned "undercurrent" starting to emerge and show/say how they really feel.

Enda might be indeed walking on quicksand and he can't see it.

gandalf

Well thats the writing on the wall for Enda with the majority of the Shadow Front Bench on RB's side. I have a feeling he will be announcing his standing down from the leader position later on tonight.

Biggins

Fine Gael's Justice Spokesman Charlie Flanagan has indicated that he will vote against Enda Kenny in tomorrow's confidence vote...
...He is the eleventh member of the 19-member front bench nominated by Mr Kenny who has publicly said he has lost confidence in the leadership.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0616/finegael.html

11 out of 19 is not a good indication of things going well for Enda at all.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

gandalf

gandalf wrote: »

Well thats the writing on the wall for Enda with the majority of the Shadow Front Bench on RB's side. I have a feeling he will be announcing his standing down from the leader position later on tonight.

I'd say he'll go all the way to the vote despite the folly.
He wants to see how close it is,even though thats just stupid.
The pragnatic thing to do for the good of the party would be to step down.
He's taking it personally now as are some of his cabaal.

They should be held up as traitors and the self interested buffoons that they are.

Laminations

Enda Kenny expresses confidence ahead of tomorrow’s Motion

Please Enda dont drag it to a vote

gandalf

Word leaking out that he has resigned.

gandalf

gandalf wrote: »

Word leaking out that he has resigned.

Well his handlers sent a text message to matt cooper saying Things are going so well for enda now that he won't have time to be on the show today,hes busy maximising tomorrows vote by talking to people.

I kid you not-that was on the last word just now...

gandalf

Deleted User wrote: »

Well his handlers sent a text message to matt cooper saying Things are going so well for enda now that he won't have time to be on the show today,hes busy maximising tomorrows vote by talking to people.

I kid you not-that was on the last word just now...

There must be a lot of buckets of sand at FG's headquarters cause a lot of them appear to have their heads firmly buried in them !!

Eliot Rosewater

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Well, the Progressive Democrats was carved out of other parties. I don't see the kind of dissatisfaction within political circles nowadays that was present back then. I can't imagine any group of current TDs jumping ship to set up a new shop.

I'm not sure if a brand new party without any of the current stock would be a success, either. I may be totally wrong, of course, and my analysis is probably affected by my tendency to take a negative approach to Irish politics!

Do you envisage it?

thebman

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Yeah I haven't seen it mentioned yet but the PD's actually put forward an economic policy and proposals for a budget that were rejected by FF just before we started down this property bubble road.

I would like to know what was in them TBH. It kind of shows the policies that got us into this mess are almost entirely FF's.

Permabear

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Sulmac

It'd be great to see FG endorse more socially liberal policies under Bruton, it has to be said. As someone mentioned before, Kenny is too centrist and afraid to "rock the boat" on many issues.

The meeting gets under way at 11:30 tomorrow, according to RTÉ News.

Wide Road

Rather than answer to parties that don't exist anymore,I decided to remain calm. READ the text.it's Enda v Richard. it's simple. Two fg td's, fighting it out for one thing, POWER. One reason and one only, POWER. don't believe anything else. John Bruton Endas brother refused to talk to DL before a general election, yet formed a govt with no mandate shortly afterwards with who, go one guess, DL. Why, one word POWER. If you doubt me, check out his brother Richard.

nkay1985

I think the writing is on the wall for Enda, whether he wins the vote today or not. He couldn't possibly carry on as leader of FG after this. The vast majority of the bright, young front-benchers have sided with Bruton. These are the people that have drawn voters back to FG - Varadkar etc. If I was a FG member and it was a choice between having Kenny as leader or having all these people on my front bench I know which I'd be choosing.

I've made my feelings on Enda and the FG leadership problem very well-known, most recently here, here and here. I really we come out of this with Bruton leading FG and that they manage to heal the wounds quickly for the good of all of us! If that happens and there aren't some major policies that I disagree with then FG will be getting a high preference from me.

femur61

Enda should listen to the public not a few farmers in his party. I'm from rural Ireland and he makes me cringe sometimes especially when he was on The Late Late show.

PeterIanStaker

According to Fianna Fail TV , I mean RTE, both sides claiming a majority.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0617/finegael.html

70 people are eligible to vote, wonder will there be any undecided or are they very polarised?