Large armada of US and Israeli warships move towards the Persian Gulf.

Run_to_da_hills

"An armada of more than twelve US and Israeli warships has passed through the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea and is reportedly heading to the Persian Gulf.

Egypt allowed the vessels to pass through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea Friday, UPI reported on Saturday.

The final destination of the fleet, which also includes an aircraft carrier, is not yet known; but some say it may be heading towards the Persian Gulf"

Is this just posturing for an attack on Iran or are they waiting to greet the two Iranian Red Crescent ships that are currently on the way?.

http://presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=131181&sectionid=351020205

BrianD

Perhaps a coincidence? Israel already has a red sea naval base at Eiliat and they have transferred ships from there to the Mediterranean before.

As the article says, Egypt had to beef up security. Perhaps they were saving themselves a few quid by pushing the Americans and Israelis through at the same time.

Israeli navy is mainly coastal patrol and missile boats with the exception of 3 corvettes. I really can't see these being of much use in the Persian Gulf. It may be a show of force by the Israelis but they couldn't survive for long in a battle situation without the arm of the US Navy.

Their presence would obviously increase tension with Iran but would also probably ruffle the feathers of a few other Gulf nations who are at peace with Israel.

As for the Americans, do seem to be 'regular' users of the canal and I would have been surprised if they did not have an aircraft carrier in the Gulf area given their interest in the area and further south off the horn of africa.

dlofnep

Doesn't sound good. Any other sources on this?

BrianD

dlofnep wrote: »

Doesn't sound good. Any other sources on this?

Depends on what you want to believe! This type of story has appeared a number of time sover the years. Nothing new here. Some people might want to draw conclusions.

What are the possibilities? A surgical strike on certain installations or a full on attack? If it was a surgical strike it would be highly secret and probably involve flying in bombers in from remote locations and not from an aircraft carrier that is a vulnerable target sitting out in the gulf. They would need to make sure that iranian military would not be able to respond which would in turn mean that a larger scale attack would be required ...


Attacking Iran is not like attacking Iraq. Everybody knew that once an invasion of Iraq was on the cards from a very noticable increase in assets in the area. Furthermore, Iran is not in a position where it's military has been decimated in the past by as US led attack, lost half its airfrorce (intact to Iran), had no fly zones imposed and has been under sanctions for over a decade. The Iraq that george w bush invaded was a very weak nation. Iran has a sizable and advanced military (a big chunk if it supplied by the US in the past albeit old at this point) and has not been weakened to the extent Iraq was.

This flotilla is probably only remarkable in that it was actually reported. Other than posturing by the hawks in the US, I see no distinct interest by the US in opening another front in the middle east.

In regard to the Iranian Red Crescent ships. What way are they going to Gaza? Given that Egypt has also blockaded Gaza also, I'm guessing that these ships won't get through the Suez canal.

Manic Moran

I'm inclined to go with BrianD's answer. It's the only one that makes any sense.

I guess we'll see in a week or so if they show up anywhere other than Israeli ports.

NTM

Avgas

BrianD wrote: »

In regard to the Iranian Red Crescent ships. What way are they going to Gaza? Given that Egypt has also blockaded Gaza also, I'm guessing that these ships won't get through the Suez canal.

I had read somewhere that one possibility is that the Iranians might charter ships or boats in Lebanon....which is just great because they will then have loads of Hezbollah operatives to volunteer as human rights activists.....that could be soooo interesting.... They don't need to go through the Suez canal if they do it this way, plus it might avoid a diplomatic problem if the ships were not formally Iranian naval listed, or in other words make things more legally complex for the Israelis.

supersportq

Avgas wrote: »

I had read somewhere that one possibility is that the Iranians might charter ships or boats in Lebanon....which is just great because they will then have loads of Hezbollah operatives to volunteer as human rights activists.....that could be soooo interesting.... They don't need to go through the Suez canal if they do it this way, plus it might avoid a diplomatic problem if the ships were not formally Iranian naval listed, or in other words make things more legally complex for the Israelis.

How do you know, are you a memebr of Hezbollah or are you just prempting what excuse the Israeli's will say ?

BrianD

The Iranians have already attempted to send a blockade breaker to Gaza before in 2008. It was stopped by the Israeli Navy. It probably didn't even get noted in the media here.

The only reason why the most recent flotilla got so much news coverage from the onset was that in the first instance it involved a partially Irish owned (and flagged?) vessel and some TDs that tried to go on board. Obviously this was followed by the completely unnesessary and unjustified deaths of 9 people on board the Turkish ship.

BrianD

Avgas wrote: »

I had read somewhere that one possibility is that the Iranians might charter ships or boats in Lebanon....which is just great because they will then have loads of Hezbollah operatives to volunteer as human rights activists.....that could be soooo interesting.... They don't need to go through the Suez canal if they do it this way, plus it might avoid a diplomatic problem if the ships were not formally Iranian naval listed, or in other words make things more legally complex for the Israelis.

Note that it's the Iranian Red Crescent and not the Iranian Government that is supposed to be sending the ships.

Apparently the Revolutionary Guard has expressed an interest in escorting the ships but the speed boats won't go that far! My guess that the Iranian involvement is a load of huff and puff. Iran has had a lot of opportunites to up the ante with Israel and hasn't done so.

Glenshane Pass

BrianD wrote: »

Note that it's the Iranian Red Crescent and not the Iranian Government that is supposed to be sending the ships.

Apparently the Revolutionary Guard has expressed an interest in escorting the ships but the speed boats won't go that far! My guess that the Iranian involvement is a load of huff and puff. Iran has had a lot of opportunites to up the ante with Israel and hasn't done so.

There is a statement somewhere, Press TV or the Iranian News Agency, quoting the top man of the Revolutionary Guard as saying they had no interest in escorting ships.

Fratton Fred

I would guess that 12 ships is a carrier group rather than an Armada. The reports claim all 12 are US Navy, but an Israeli Corvette accompanied them.

The reports also say thousands of Eyptian soldiers were deployed to protect them. If i was an Israeli Corvette Commander and i had to go through Suez, personally i would tag along with this lot, it would be much safer.

It could simply be one carrier group relieving another one. There is a carrier group permanently supporting Operation Enduring freedom.

Glenshane Pass

I read somewhere (cringeworthy lack of sources, I know) that Egypt were not happy at all at the passage and deployed thousands of troops along the coast, just to display their uneasyness. I might have read it on Haaretz.

Tabnabs

A couple more sources here

http://www.alternet.org/world/147265/are_u.s._warships_gearing_up_for_a_confrontation_with_an_iranian_aid_flotilla_to_gaza

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/138164

Fratton Fred

Glenshane Pass wrote: »

I read somewhere (cringeworthy lack of sources, I know) that Egypt were not happy at all at the passage and deployed thousands of troops along the coast, just to display their uneasyness. I might have read it on Haaretz.

I read that Egypt deployed thousands of troops to prevent any incident taking place. The Egyptians are paranoid about a terrorist attack in the canal as it is a huge source of income for them.

The significant lack of resources makes me think that it is a standard event and not something worth getting too excited about.

BrianD

I think certain media might be putting 2 and 2 together and getting 5. The various events seem to be unconnected

Avgas

supersportq wrote: »

How do you know, are you a memebr of Hezbollah or are you just prempting what excuse the Israeli's will say ?

How do YOU know I'm wrong ...or even what excuses the Israeli's will come up.....?

Obviously, I am a member of Hezbollah. Indeed I'm the OC of their special Irish Bog of Doon cell, and well known to like a pint of the plain when we're not rigging up Fajrs to strike the great Satan over in Boston. :rolleyes:

Obviously, you are a member of Shin Bet and I don't really feel like engaging with you much in the event you send a photon surge-charge down the wire to my IP address or something nasty.:rolleyes:

But here was my thought process:

1. Iran are talking about sending a ship
2. Some people pointed out Egypt may not let it through the Suez.
3. Some people connected the 'armada' in the OP to this Iran flotilla plan.
3. I pointed out they could get a boat or some sort in Lebanon and that I had read same..can't remember where.
4. Iran are well know backers of Hezbollah who are numerous and powerful in Lebanon.
5. It follows as a reasonable supposition that, if Iran are going to put together a flotilla for Gaza from Lebanon, then they could use Hezbollah help to organize and fill such a boat. But they'd have no shortage of other 'volunteers'.

Given what we known about Hezbollah, they could make the Turkish human rights activists look like traffic-wardens, if things turn nasty.

If there is anybody pre-empting anything..... its you.

As others posted, we don't even know if this Iranian convoy is actual 4 real or not, what sort of ships, who might be on them, and so on.

I'll leave the Israeli's and yourself to make your own excuses.....

....... now can we stick to the OP?

Thanks! You've been a super-sport!

BlaasForRafa

BrianD wrote: »

Note that it's the Iranian Red Crescent and not the Iranian Government that is supposed to be sending the ships.

Apparently the Revolutionary Guard has expressed an interest in escorting the ships but the speed boats won't go that far! My guess that the Iranian involvement is a load of huff and puff. Iran has had a lot of opportunites to up the ante with Israel and hasn't done so.

Ahmedinejad appoints the head of the Iranian Red Crescent so it isn't an impartial body like it is in most other countries.

Iran may try and send a ship or two and Israel will stop them. If Iran tries to escort them then Israel will put a few holes in the Iranian ships and Iran really dosen't want to lose face in this way. Thats why I think its relatively unlikely that Iran will follow through on its threat.

Avgas

Centre-leftist Israeli newspaper Haaretz is reporting that Lebanese based ship, the Julia, is ready to go to Gaza via Cyprus soon....not very clear...NO mention of an Iranian link but yes...those fun boy-scouts Hezbollah get name checked.:rolleyes:......and yes.... its Israeli news journalism so it may well be biased although Haaretz has a reasonable enough reputation and has published stuff fairly critical of the IDF/Cast Lead, etc.

Make of it what you will, but like others here I think most of the players, especially the Israelis will want to avoid a replay of recent events, and so it may not amount to a whole lot.

See:
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/lebanon-allows-gaza-bound-ship-to-sail-to-cyprus-1.297333