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Winter 2010-2011 outlook
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Speaking of Donegal, here's the DMI's seasonal forecast for Greenland, just a bit further up to the northwest! :pac:
A couple of degrees above normal, which wont help things when it comes to establishing a winter-long 1060hPa High in the area, to feed the northerlies down this way. :rolleyes:
were temperatures in that region not above normal last year? i thought temperatures up there being above normal was a good sign if we wanted blocking?
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nacho libre wrote: »were temperatures in that region not above normal last year? i thought temperatures up there being above normal was a good sign if we wanted blocking?
Yes, according to this GISS map it was warmer, but it's laughable how coarse and inaccurate it is. This is it with 1200km smoothing radius.....the whole Arctic is down as massively warm....
Now look at the same chart, but with a much smaller smoothing radius (250km). In this case it says that areas in grey "signify missing data". Missing data, but they still post the whole area red in the first chart, giving the impression the Arctic is boiling over. I have seen that first chart quoted in reference to global warming, and to look at it you'd think it to be true.
But to answer your original question :pac: I would have thought that a warm anomaly might mean more of a southerly influence, with more storminess - the opposite to that High I spoke of. But I'm only guestimating here...
Just shows you how data can be twisted....0 -
Incidentally, to go off on that tangent again, here's more on what I was talking about above. Remember, this is the stuff the IPCC base their propoganda on. In areas where there are no data, they simply fill them in as warm!
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_Part2_GlobalTempMeasure.htm
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/NOAA_JanJun2010.htm
(More info here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/21/visualizing-arctic-coverage/#more-19789 )
Problems With IPCC (HadCRU) Methods
HadCRU / IPCC uses an interpolation method for 5x5 degree grids that have no stations. Siberia provides an example of the flaws involved. The following figure shows 5 x 5 degree grids with interpolated data as used by the IPCC, showing the temperature change from 1976 to 1999. Some Siberian 5x5 grids are highlighted in the upper-right green box in the following figure. These are the area of 65 – 80 latitude x 100 -135 longitude. This illustrates the effect of selecting a particular start year and why the IPCC selected 1976.
IPCC Warming from 1976 to 1999 in 5x5 degree grid cells [from Figure 2.9 in the IPCC Third Annual Report (TAR)]
The NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has an animated series showing the temperature anomalies for July of each year from 1880 to 1998 (no interpolation into empty grids). URL]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ghcn/movie_meant_latestmonth.gif[/URL. The images in the following figure are from that series. These give an indication of the global coverage of the grid temperatures and how the coverage has changed over the years, as well as highlighting 2 warm and 2 cool years. The 1930’s were a very warm period (compare 1936 in b with 1998 in d below).
Temperature Anomalies for 5x5-Degree Grids For Selected Years (GHCN data)
In the GHCN data shown above, grid boxes with no data are left empty. In the IPCC method, many empty grid boxes are filled in with interpolations, with the net effect of increasing the warming trend.
The following figure shows temperature trends for the Siberian area highlighted previously (Lat 65 to 80 - Long 100 to 135). Of the eight main temperature dots on the IPCC map, three are interpolated (no data). Of the five with data, the number of stations is indicated in the lower left corner of each grid-based temperature graph. The only grid with more than two stations shows no warming over the available data. The average for the entire 15 x 35 degree area is shown in the upper right of the figure. Of the eight individual stations, only two exhibit any warming since the 1930’s (the one in long 130-135 and only one of the two in long 110-115). An important issue is to keep in mind is that in the calculation of global average temperatures, the interpolated grid boxes are averaged in with the ones that actually have data. This example shows how sparse and varying data can contribute to an average that is not necessarily representative.
Temperatures for 5x5 Grids in Lat 65 to 80 - Long 100 to 135
Misrepresentation via Selective Period
They selected 1976 as a starting point since that was a relatively cool year as well as a low point in the multi-decadal trends and would thus show greater warming towards 1999. But most long-term starting points do not exhibit such exaggerated warming trends. If they selected 1936 to 1998 as the time period, the following figure would not be so dramatic. The selective use of data is one of the primary problems in representing actual phenomena.
Trends from 1976 to 1999 (left) and 1936 to 1999 (right) Showing IPCC’s Selectivity in Start Year
The following figure shows the four Siberian temperature stations with the longest-term data. The IPCC has misrepresented the warming trend in Siberia by selective use of the start date.
Four Long-term Temperature Stations in Siberia0 -
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Brief rundown of the long-range winter forecasts so far:
Netweather - bland 'n' dry/mild
Ken Ring - bland 'n' dry/cold at times but also mild at times
Theweatheroutlook - potentially cold and blocky.
Postman Pat - insinuated bit of rough
DMI/Met.no - blocky to the north and east/ or west; or could that be south?
Overall consensus seems to be towards a high pressure based winter but a general disagreement as to where the high pressure will position its fat lazy ass.
I am hoping Eastern Europe.
bring it on..0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Brief rundown of the long-range winter forecasts so far:
Netweather - bland 'n' dry/mild
Ken Ring - bland 'n' dry/cold at times but also mild at times
Theweatheroutlook - potentially cold and blocky.
Postman Pat - insinuated bit of rough
DMI/Met.no - blocky to the north and east/ or west; or could that be south?
Overall consensus seems to be towards a high pressure based winter but a general disagreement as to where the high pressure will position its fat lazy ass.
I am hoping Eastern Europe.
bring it on..
my hunch is the high will be to the northwest of Ireland but topple in over us due to the la nina winter. so we could well have a winter where often times it's cold at the surface level, but technically it's considered artificial cold by some due to the warmer temps at heights.0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »Brief rundown of the long-range winter forecasts so far:
Netweather - bland 'n' dry/mild
Ken Ring - bland 'n' dry/cold at times but also mild at times
Theweatheroutlook - potentially cold and blocky.
Postman Pat - insinuated bit of rough
DMI/Met.no - blocky to the north and east/ or west; or could that be south?
Overall consensus seems to be towards a high pressure based winter but a general disagreement as to where the high pressure will position its fat lazy ass.
I am hoping Eastern Europe.
bring it on..
AWH!:mad:, so does this mean i should hold off in purchasing a snowboard!?!............( im serious ha )....0 -
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snowstreams wrote: »Are the snowboards back on sale in lidl?
Unless its a very mild winter id say there should still be a few decent days for snow in the mountains this winter. I even got a little bit of use with my snowboard in wicklow in the mild winters of 06/07 & 07/08. Though you would have to be good on the board, cause the patches those mild years were very small!
Though it wasnt much compared to the last 2 winters.
ye they hav them on sale every November so i was thinking of gettin one ... Should be fun! 0 -
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ye they hav them on sale every November so i was thinking of gettin one ... Should be fun!
should be, as long as you keep looking left and right:
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When that high was based on Lempfert, did he get up again later?
That's probably the highest pressure seen in modern times over Europe, and yet nobody ever mentions 1907 as one of the great winters. I guess it didn't do too much more than shunt some cold air west.
In this discussion, it's interesting that we all tend towards a default position where the whole winter conforms to some general pattern. Some winters (even in the European climate) have a mid-season reversal and I have a hunch that this winter might be like that (cold first half, mild second half).
If the reversal comes late enough as in Feb 2005, then the winter is remembered mostly for the first longer segment, even if the second shorter segment is the more significant in terms of impacts.
With my research partner in crime (known as Blast from the Past on the net-weather forum) we are hoping to finalize a forecast soon, but I have to be quite frank, this season has mixed signals and the La Nina pattern is shaping up very strong over North America here, which has got to be factored into the final result -- if we have a screaming fast flow here and there is no major blocking in the Atlantic, then that fast flow is going to reach Europe sooner or later, and usually fast flow drives the jet higher.
So if you're hoping for wintry weather, I think it had better come in December before the window of opportunity is shut.0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 14611
Bergen (Norway), as far north as the Shetlands, woke up to this weather this morning
Bone dry yesterday :rolleyes:
Actually, just read that it's their earliest snow since 1973, talk about rubbing salt in the wound!0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i99h2oUs65g
![URL]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ghcn/movie_meant_latestmonth.gif[/URL](/?page=URL%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncdc.noaa.gov%2Fimg%2Fclimate%2Fresearch%2Fghcn%2Fmovie_meant_latestmonth.gif%5B%2FURL){kind=link}
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