Winter 2010-2011 outlook

isle of man

Elmo5 wrote: »

Saw that JoeB has put up his european winter forecast video. Apologies if this has been posted already!

http://www.accuweather.com/video/646598930001/the-euro-winterlets-not-get-too-carried-away.asp?channel=vbbastaj

i wish i had not watched that now:mad:

Lumi

isle of man wrote: »

i wish i had not watched that now:mad:

It certainly made depressing viewing for cold lovers didn't it ?

desolate sun

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Anyone else notice the amount of berries coming nto fruit on trees today? Some say a sign of a hars winter ahead.

I noticed that a few weeks ago but was told it was a result of a good summer, growing-wise.

What I have noticed is a lot of flowers that were dying off have re-flowered in the last few weeks. I also planted some snowdrops and daffodil bulbs in a pot in September and these started to grow :eek: - they should have lay dormant until Jan/Feb.

nacho libre

To hear from Joe that snowfall will below normal is depressing. We get sod all snow in a normal Winter as it is! I'm convinced Joe Bastardi is a false prophet:p
Positive Weather Solutions and The WeatherOutlook know the score!

Wild Bill

Well, tonight in Sandyford, County Dublin it is -2C on a totally calm night with clear sky and a near full moon!

Cars are covered in ice and the grass crackles.

Not sure if this is a sign of anything but how often do we get Octobers here with no frost at all? Most years.

Chin up! :cool:

derekon

Wild Bill wrote: »

Well, tonight in Sandyford, County Dublin it is -2C on a totally calm night with clear sky and a near full moon!

Cars are covered in ice and the grass crackles.

Not sure if this is a sign of anything but how often do we get Octobers here with no frost at all? Most years.

Chin up! :cool:

Exactly Wild Bill - and I read on another post that the October low at Dublin Airport was broken last night (-3.3oC recorded) , the previous October record low at the airport was -2.2oC. Might be a sign of a cold winter to come!

Derek

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

I think that's being unfair to MT, who had the general bones of last winter's forecast, and probably has a better chance of anyone of being right from his decades of personal research.

Forecasting for a few months ahead requires a very different approach to that of a few days ahead. Larger scale global factors are much more important, and these can be used to some effect in seasonal forecasting. Just have a look at a few of Joe Bastardi's forecasts and you'll see what I mean.

Point well made, Su. I should have qualified my statement by saying I did not include the likes of MT or yourself when speaking about false forecasts. From my reading of your posts, you are one of the more realistic posters especially in respect of snowfall in Ireland.

Its a great board here and I hope we are in for an interesting Irish winter!

Derek

thetonynator

Or it might be a sign that winter will end next week and we will have mild wet dull depressing weather until next april . .. always the pessimist . . .:pac:

derekon

thetonynator wrote: »

Or it might be a sign that winter will end next week and we will have mild wet dull depressing weather until next april . .. always the pessimist . . .:pac:

It can go either way, I am going to veer on the side of positivity and say there will be some nice cold snaps and periods of snow for Ireland this winter !

Derek

Redsunset

Derek i would just like to say that your choice of words are really incredible.:rolleyes:

I was under the impression that we were all being realistic on here.
Yes most of us like to dream of lightning storms,blizzards of snow etc but deep down we know our location simply does not favour these types of events to become regular features.

False forecasts my eye,

Im leaving it at that.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

. We get sod all snow in a normal Winter as it is!

The truth, but we would still get more snow in a normal Irish winter than anything we got in last year's abnormal one. At least in this part of the country.

nacho libre

well to be fair derek has a point about the cfs charts, they constantly seem to change. only a few weeks ago they were showing temperatures of slightly below average for much of the winter. so i don't put that much stock in them. however with an active el nina and major strastopheric warming being unlikely under this pattern then we are extremely unlikely to get sustained cold. So anyone hoping for a repeat of last year needs to forget it about it, it's not going to happen:(
still, as has been said here before, we can still get fairly wintry periods in winters that officially go down as being mild. So all hope is not lost!

Deep Easterly

derekon wrote: »

I am going to veer on the side of positivity

Derek

Positivity = False

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The truth, but we would still get more snow in a normal Irish winter than anything we got in last year's abnormal one. At least in this part of the country.

well, you more than most were extremely unlucky last year. i think some places- mostly in the east- got more snow days than they normally would.
as you say laSt year deeply frustrating because under the classic setup we had it could have rivalled those years that have gone down in snow folklore.
i just hope Joe Bastardi is right about those trio of cold winters to come in 2011/12. i know it's very sad to be looking that far ahead:pac:

Redsunset

nacho libre wrote: »

well to be fair derek has a point about the cfs charts, they constantly seem to change. only a few weeks ago they were showing temperatures of slightly below average for much of the winter. so i don't put that much stock in them.QUOTE]


That wasn't my point,as i already said CFS charts do change fairly often.

It was his opinion that we were wasting our time trying to forecast the winter.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

It was his opinion that we were wasting our time trying to forecast the winter.

Which is kind of ironic, since he himself is forecasting a white out armadgeddon for this coming winter. Something us "false forecasters" have yet to do as far as I am aware.

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm convinced Joe Bastardi is a false prophet

nacho libre wrote: »

i just hope Joe Bastardi is right about those trio of cold winters to come in 2011/12.

That's the thing about false prophets Nacho, always dangling a bit hope in front of you before the inevitable reality and disapointed expectations arrive :pac:

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

well to be fair derek has a point about the cfs charts, they constantly seem to change. only a few weeks ago they were showing temperatures of slightly below average for much of the winter. so i don't put that much stock in them.QUOTE]


That wasn't my point,as i already said CFS charts do change fairly often.

It was his opinion that we were wasting our time trying to forecast the winter.

well obviously i don't agree with him on that and it is disrespectful to the knowledgeable folk who invest long hours in order to make a long range forecast

i was merely agreeing with his view that writing off January and February as being mild overall on the basis of those cfs charts alone is misguided. They are not a useful guide considering the fact they constantly change.

TheInquisitor

Joe Bastardi's new video from sunday is against a brutal winter like last year in the Uk/ire

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Separately to that though have a look at the sea ice and snow cover difference between 07 and 10. Now thats a serious difference!!

Redsunset

OK final note on this. i was only just referring to what they were saying right now and M.T thoughts at the moment seem to agree to some extent.Was only highlighting that,anyhow lets forget about it.:)

Im very impressed with ice and snow cover at the moment.




Was impressive on 7th jan this year,oh look we got the white stuff.

derekon

Hi folks, thanks for all your views as noted in the last few posts.

As I am kind of new to this weather board, does anyone put any weight behind the predictions of Ken Ring ? He says we are in for a mild winter...oh at this stage, its getting confusing what to believe...

MT please bring forward your winter forecast so some sanity can be brought to bear on this !

Derek

thetonynator

derekon wrote: »

Hi folks, thanks for all your views as noted in the last few posts.

As I am kind of new to this weather board, does anyone put any weight behind the predictions of Ken Ring ? He says we are in for a mild winter...oh at this stage, its getting confusing what to believe...

MT please bring forward your winter forecast so some sanity can be brought to bear on this !

Derek

I would be of the opinion that ken rings forecasts have an error factor of at least 10 degrees or 3 years i.e. if he says this winter will be mild, he means we will have a mild winter in the next or last 3 years . . .same with if he says snow for christmas, he means snow at some point this winter . . .

Redsunset

Here we look at how autumn snowfall anomaly over Siberia can effect the Arctic Oscillation and thus force it to become negative.

Last autumn had a fairly large area of snowfields,could this have created the spike in stratospheric temps in november to help the height rises over the Arctic?

Read this Huge excellent paper on this below.





http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/16920/52770036.pdf?sequence=1


Winter Climate Response to Continental Snow Anomalies

Abstract

jimmy.d

:eek:http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/23/strom/ just type in storm in search if it dont come up and its the third post down

cammo 30

im so new to this ...from my findings on the net its 70/30 on snowy winter again. but there is talk about this la nina ...does this mean no snow?

Rebelbrowser

Rather depressing Monthly outlook issued by the Beeb this morning....

Published at 10:00, 25 October
(Next update at 09:00, 1 November)
Written by Peter Gibbs

Summary

A change of type, which looks set to stay

The early frosts this autumn have been unusually severe. One or two places broke low temperature records in September, and this last week has seen overnight temperatures as low as minus 5C in places as far apart as Dorset and Highland Scotland.
This week starts on a frosty note, but once the Atlantic weather systems break through then we look set to stay in a windier, wetter and much milder weather type for some time to come.

Monday 25 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010
Frosty start, then mild and windy

After a cold, crisp start to the working week it's all change thereafter.
An active weather system pushes in from the Atlantic, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to all areas during Tuesday.
Once the milder south-westerly air-stream breaks through it should be here to stay, with temperatures reaching the high teens at times and staying well above freezing overnight.
There will be some heavy rain now and again, but also brighter spells. Expect the autumn leaves to be swirling around in the continuing brisk winds.


Sunday 31 October 2010 to Saturday 6 November 2010
Frost becomes a thing of the past

The unsettled theme is likely to continue throughout this period with some dry, bright interludes between the wetter and windier spells of weather. The west is most likely to see any heavier rain while the east remains drier.
It will often be windy, with gales in places and a risk of severe gales in the west. It is expected to stay mild for much of the time, with temperatures occasionally rising well above the early November average.


Sunday 7 November 2010 to Saturday 20 November 2010
Typical November weather, but not cold

After an unsettled start, much of the UK is expected to experience near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, a typical November pattern, but also a good deal of sunshine in between.
Temperatures are expected to be above average for much of the time, thanks to a continuing feed of southwesterly winds from the Atlantic.

WolfeIRE

Hate to say it but all long range models indicate SW flow over ireland for at least the next fortnight. Hopefully this may change.
Hopefully we do not get a repeat of last November's flooding.

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Rather depressing Monthly outlook issued by the Beeb this morning....

Published at 10:00, 25 October
(Next update at 09:00, 1 November)
Written by Peter Gibbs

Summary

A change of type, which looks set to stay

The early frosts this autumn have been unusually severe. One or two places broke low temperature records in September, and this last week has seen overnight temperatures as low as minus 5C in places as far apart as Dorset and Highland Scotland.
This week starts on a frosty note, but once the Atlantic weather systems break through then we look set to stay in a windier, wetter and much milder weather type for some time to come.

Monday 25 October 2010 to Sunday 31 October 2010
Frosty start, then mild and windy

After a cold, crisp start to the working week it's all change thereafter.
An active weather system pushes in from the Atlantic, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to all areas during Tuesday.
Once the milder south-westerly air-stream breaks through it should be here to stay, with temperatures reaching the high teens at times and staying well above freezing overnight.
There will be some heavy rain now and again, but also brighter spells. Expect the autumn leaves to be swirling around in the continuing brisk winds.


Sunday 31 October 2010 to Saturday 6 November 2010
Frost becomes a thing of the past

The unsettled theme is likely to continue throughout this period with some dry, bright interludes between the wetter and windier spells of weather. The west is most likely to see any heavier rain while the east remains drier.
It will often be windy, with gales in places and a risk of severe gales in the west. It is expected to stay mild for much of the time, with temperatures occasionally rising well above the early November average.


Sunday 7 November 2010 to Saturday 20 November 2010
Typical November weather, but not cold

After an unsettled start, much of the UK is expected to experience near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, a typical November pattern, but also a good deal of sunshine in between.
Temperatures are expected to be above average for much of the time, thanks to a continuing feed of southwesterly winds from the Atlantic.

It would be more depressing if that was the December or January outlook. Whether it's warm or cold now can't really be taken as a sign of how the Winter will pan out. We've had October and November months that were cold only for the winter that followed to be mild overall and the reverse is also true.

Wild Bill

Wild Bill wrote: »

Well, tonight in Sandyford, County Dublin it is -2C on a totally calm night with clear sky and a near full moon!

Cars are covered in ice and the grass crackles.

Not sure if this is a sign of anything but how often do we get Octobers here with no frost at all? Most years.

From the sublime to the ridiculous, to coin a phrase!
At 7pm this evening is the same place it was 19c in calm, partially cloudy and very humid conditions. :eek:
Must be the fhoen effect!

cammo 30

i wish...why is it that in drogheda we get any amount of rain and wen winter comes we get feck all snow even wen its forcast...a few good days last winter granted but thts it