Winter 2010-2011 outlook

WolfeIRE

As MT said in his daily forecast cold air over greenland will try unsuccessfully to push down over ireland in between soem fast moving lows pushing their way over ireland from the west and south west. This battle, though being controlled at the moment by the atlantic, presents us with the prospect of some very wintry weather should it continue into late november and december.

The long range models show the cold air from greenland making more inroads as we enter mid November. Between now and then the Atlantic looks like staying in control of our weather.

The cold pool of air's difficulty in reaching us may be assisted by the warmer than normal seas around greenland, scanadanvia and the artic in general, - as Su pointed out last week.

Su Campu

Those warm anomalies around Greenland have reduced significantly in the last week in response to the cold blast they got the end of last week. It is particularly visible in the Greenland Sea, eastern Greenland, and especially around Jan Mayen, which has fallen by about 3 degrees in the last week or two.

WolfeIRE

excellent news. Do you mind posting the link to that site please Su. WOuld love to keep an eye on it.

thanks
Wolfe

Su Campu

Here's the Norwegian Met Office's sea surface temperature forecast loop for the next week, showing a slow southward advancement of colder temperatures.

http://retro.met.no/kyst_og_hav/havvarsel.html



The other link you requested Wolf is this (anomaly loop is down the bottom)

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

derekon

WolfeIRE wrote: »

As MT said in his daily forecast cold air over greenland will try unsuccessfully to push down over ireland in between soem fast moving lows pushing their way over ireland from the west and south west. This battle, though being controlled at the moment by the atlantic, presents us with the prospect of some very wintry weather should it continue into late november and december.

The long range models show the cold air from greenland making more inroads as we enter mid November. Between now and then the Atlantic looks like staying in control of our weather.

The cold pool of air's difficulty in reaching us may be assisted by the warmer than normal seas around greenland, scanadanvia and the artic in general, - as Su pointed out last week.

Thanks Wolfire - are the pieces gradually "falling into place" for this winter so?

I understand there are lots of variables - how strong will the Gulf Stream be, La Nina, blocking, sunspots etc (I have learned so much on this board over recent months!) ....however your comment about a potential battleground has increased my interest ....I take it Ireland is the perfect battleground for rain belts off the Atlantic mixing with cold air from the North Pole to give us a winter wonderland? !!!

Derek

derekon

On another note, Joe Bastardi has posted his winter outlook for Europe.

Some cities we would be interested in are listed below and the prospects for snow this year do not look good folks:


United Kingdom: London: Temps: .2F below normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: normal.

Glasgow: Temps: .5F above normal. Precip: below normal. Snowfall: below normal.


Ireland: Dublin: Temps: .2F above normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: below normal.


France: Paris: Temps: .2F below normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: near or a little above normal.

Spain: Madrid: Temps .6F below normal. Precip: Normal. Snowfall: Near or a little above normal.

Now an increase in temperature in Dublin of 0.2F is not something to get too carried away about. However of concern is the forecast that snowfall in Dublin will be "below normal". I mean over the past decade, Dublin city has probably recorded an average snowfall of 1cm per winter.

Surely Dublin city is not in for a record low snowfall of 0.5cm this year? :mad:

Any reassurances would be gladly welcomed.

Derek

Deep Easterly

derekon wrote: »

Any reassurances would be gladly welcomed.

Derek

You may as well forget about this winter. It is going to be crap, drizzly with monotone white grey skies day in day out. Mild too with constant relative humidities in the 90% plus catogory.

Patrick.

derekon

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You may as well forget about this winter. It is going to be crap, drizzly with monotone white grey skies day in day out. Mild too with constant relative humidities in the 90% plus catogory.

Patrick.

Thank you Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly

No problem Derek. One crumb of comfort though is that anything I forecast tends to be totally wrong. So, roll on the opposite of my winter forecast!

derekon

Deep Easterly wrote: »

No problem Derek. One crumb of comfort though is that anything I forecast tends to be totally wrong. So, roll on the opposite of my winter forecast!

LOL , here is hoping you are on form this year so!

Derek

rainbow kirby

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You may as well forget about this winter. It is going to be crap, drizzly with monotone white grey skies day in day out. Mild too with constant relative humidities in the 90% plus catogory.

Patrick.

I'd be quite happy with that, tbh. :pac:

WolfeIRE

Based on weather patterns from the past 6-8 weeks, i am still going with my previous
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68629864&postcount=571

Su's post today on the seas to our north cooling significantly in the past week will further help matters.

Granted, the Atlantic will be more active this winter but a cold northern to northeasterly airflow pushing up against as it has been for the past 6-8 weeks presents potential for snow. Our winter may turn out to be 'normal' in terms of average temps/precipitation. But I will gladly live with this if it means mild spells are broken up by blasts of wintry weather.

Expect little and you will be pleasantly surprised.

EDIT:
Just spotted this for Nov 12. Long way off but a scenario that may happen quite often over the coming winter. Shower troughs moving down from n-nw across the country. When atlantic systems attempt to push over Ireland the precip will, at least, start off as snow - especially if the cold has been entrenched over Ireland for any sustained period.
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-384.png?12

WolfeIRE

start contrast in artic sea ice cover - 2007 and 2010.
see the alps, iceland and scandanavia in particular.
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

Deep Easterly

ECMWF's latest Nino forecast suggesting a continuation of moderate to strong La Nina conditions right through the winter months but recovering towards summer 2011:



Full range of nino region forecasts here

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

start contrast in artic sea ice cover - 2007 and 2010.
see the alps, iceland and scandanavia in particular.
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

Seems to a little bit more snow overland alright but I am not sure about a greater ice extent than that of 2007. If you look at the area east of Greenland and north of Baffin Island there is actually less sea ice this year than in 2007. Counteracted of course by the greater extent in the Arctic region as a whole but according the NSIDC there is very little difference between the Arctic ice volume of 2007 and 2010:

nacho libre

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html



Judging by Johnathan Powell's comments it doesn't appear as if PWS are going to alter their prediction of a cold winter to come.

Although there are many different views on what's to come, there does seem to be a consensus building that it will be drier than normal winter.

derekon

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html



Judging by Johnathan Powell's comments it doesn't appear as if PWS are going to alter their prediction of a cold winter to come.

Although there are many different views on what's to come, there does seem to be a consensus building that it will be drier than normal winter.

Ok my head is spinning now with all these predictions. Some say it will be colder than normal, others say it will be milder. Hard to know what to believe...

Derek

The Donegal Postman says it going to be a hard winter.
So, its going to be a hard winter.:)


Fingers crossed

thetonynator

Some say cold, some say mild, no one has a clue really though, it's always ridiculously marginal anyway.

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

Ok my head is spinning now with all these predictions. Some say it will be colder than normal, others say it will be milder. Hard to know what to believe...

Derek

Derek, we can say for certain it will be a winter of discontent with the budget cuts to come

gleep

So most posters here actually want a harsh winterWTF?

Do you all work from home/don't work at all? Because it's a bloody disaster for the rest of us, snow like the past few years will add 4 hours to my commute, and it usually takes me 30mins each way!

Seriously, what is wrong with you all?:p

WolfeIRE

gleep wrote: »

Do you all work from home/don't work at all?

you mean are we among half of the irish population who are exactly that?

Probably.

derekon

gleep wrote: »

So most posters here actually want a harsh winterWTF?

Do you all work from home/don't work at all? Because it's a bloody disaster for the rest of us, snow like the past few years will add 4 hours to my commute, and it usually takes me 30mins each way!

Seriously, what is wrong with you all?:p

Hey I have to commute to work and you are right, it ain't fun in the snow.

However, no one can tell me that the sight of snowflakes falling gently from a grey sky is not one of the most beautiful scenes nature can deliver. Also you have to admit, its nice to get some snow when you consider all year this island gets rain, rain and oh yeah more rain. So precipitation of a different nature is normally welcomed by most...

bring it on!

Derek

thetonynator

gleep wrote: »

So most posters here actually want a harsh winterWTF?

Do you all work from home/don't work at all? Because it's a bloody disaster for the rest of us, snow like the past few years will add 4 hours to my commute, and it usually takes me 30mins each way!

Seriously, what is wrong with you all?:p

Take snow days!!!! say your drive had a drift on it or something . . .

WolfeIRE

Middle of November continuing to show signs of colder weather. Models have been consistent on this for past 3 days.

cammo 30

:rolleyes:Winter Forecast 2010/11
This forecast issued on the 18th October 2010 and written by our long range expert Stewart Rampling is a technical and in depth seasonal forecast for Winter 2010/11. Usually only available to commercial clients of Netweather.tv, it is being made freely available this year in addition to the usual long range forecasts and features that are available on the site.
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Will it, won’t it ? But the dryness will be the real story

Following back to back cold winters for much of the UK, there is a lot of focus whether this year will follow suit. However, with temperatures forecast to be close to or slightly below average, we believe the most significant aspect of this winter will be the very much below average winter rainfall following on the back of a largely dry summer for parts of the UK and very likely dry spring to follow.

Headline Summary:

• Anomalously cold ocean temperatures in the Tropical Pacific or ‘La Nina’ conditions have become well established. There is a high probability that these conditions will intensify over the coming months and become one of the strongest La Ninas on record.
• With a strong coupling between the atmosphere and ocean signal, global weather patterns are very likely to be ‘forced’ by a strong La Nina with dominant high pressure centres in the northern Pacific and in the North Atlantic.
• La Nina winters have a variable influence on the weather in Europe although we anticipate no sustained extremes of cold and the emphasis on dry, settled weather. Some wintry weather is however expected, particularly during mid to late December an early January.
• Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the coldest weather (relative to long term averages) centred over France and Iberia, the south-east of the UK closest to this cold. Compared to many winters of the last two decades, this coming winter would probably be regarded as cold although not of the same degree as last year or 2008/9.

Background to this forecast:

• This forecast is based upon the likely influences of La Nina in the Tropical Pacific, atmospheric signals and air temperatures high up in the atmosphere over the Arctic which are seen as key variables, many of which are dissimilar to last winter.
• However, the last twelve months (probably thirteen months after October’s data) have seen a negative or cold phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (a key measure of the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores). This is unprecedented since the index was first compiled in 1950 and reflects a reversal in the normal pressure patterns which played a significant part in last winter’s weather.
• This forecast based upon an understanding of the dynamical processes involving the world’s oceans and atmosphere, the use of historical-based analogues and Netweather.tv’s customised seasonal predictive model based upon the Climate Forecast System (National Centre for Environmental Prediction).

Record strength La Nina

• Sea temperatures are widely below normal across much of the Tropical Pacific and these colder waters extend to several hundred metres below the surface in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is characteristic of a La Nina event of medium strength magnitude.
• The pattern of surface winds and cloudiness across the Tropics is very typical of La Nina event and model forecasts continue to suggest the sub-surface anomalously cold waters will work their way to the surface over the next 2-3 months further strengthening La Nina to ‘strong’ category event, potentially the strongest La Nina of the last 60 years given the large volume of below average waters with temperatures up to six degrees below normal.
• Since July, global weather patterns have been very consistent with La Nina. The European weather patterns associated with La Nina in winter are somewhat variable. Most were dry and mild although there were some colder events in 1955/56 and 1964/5.

Figure 1: Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Global SST Anomlaies

Click to enlarge

Atmospheric indicators fully backing La Nina

• One of the keys to understanding La Ninas and their warm counterpart El Ninos is how the atmospheric variables react to the temperatures of the ocean and whether or not the atmosphere is ‘going along’ with these changes.
• Most atmospheric variables are also exhibiting extreme La Nina like behaviour. Overall levels of storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere is at a 30 year low despite an active Atlantic hurricane season whilst forward intertia in the atmosphere was the third lowest in 60 years during July and August. The pressure differentials measured in the Southern Hemisphere, which usually indicate the future trends of La Nina have been advertising a strong event in the making.
• Of the strong La Nina events, these atmospheric indicators suggest we are historically much further advanced at this time. Given feedback loops, atmosphere reinforcing La Nina, La Nina reinforcing the atmospheric variables, it is very likely that an exceptionally strong La Nina event will take place this winter with a probable peak in December or early January.

Temperatures in the stratosphere

• One of the key elements of last winter’s cold weather was above average temperatures in the upper atmosphere high over the Arctic which promoted ‘blocking’ highs displacing polar air into Europe.
• This year we expect the combination of low solar activity and a westerly wind over the Tropics to be less conducive to blocking highs with colder than normal atmosphere over the Arctic driving polar westerlies which tend to favour blocking highs further south around the UK.

Seasonal Model Guidance (Climate Forecast System)

• Model guidance is for high pressure close to or north and west of the UK for the majority of the winter with a slight tendency to shift further away to the west during February.
• Model sees average or slightly colder than average temperatures for the UK, coldest in the south-east and mildest in the north with central Europe slightly below average.
• Model sees rainfall below average.
• Good consistency between model updates and output appears to be consistent with historical analogue guidance adding confidence to forecast.

Winter Forecast details

December

• High pressure likely to be centred to the north-west of the UK with winds from the north-west with northerly interludes.
• Temperatures likely to be below average, the largest departure of the three months compared to long term averages with the coldest temperatures in the south-east.
• Rainfall likely to be much below average.

January

• Large area of high pressure in the central Atlantic gradually edging towards the UK although an unsettled phase likely with potential for snow, particularly in western areas.
• Likely to be cold to start with fog and frost persistent.
• Rainfall below average.

February

• High pressure centred over the UK with a lot of settled weather.
• Temperatures likely to be slightly above average although surface temperatures may be depressed by fog and cloud.
• Rainfall likely to be much below average.

Forecaster: Stewart Rampling for Netweather.tv Issued: 18/10/10

Figure 2: Forecast mean sea level pressure (deviation from long term average)

Sea Level Pressure

Click to enlarge

Figure 3: Forecast temperature (deviation from long term average)

Temperature

WolfeIRE

Average to above average temps according to UKMO in BBC monthly outlook. However, models are indicating colder weather for ireland from as early as early-midweek next week.



Published at 10:00, 1 November
(Next update at 10:00, 8 November)
Written by Peter Gibbs

Summary

Swirling autumn leaves, but little frost

Nature has been putting on its own colourful display ahead of bonfire night. This autumn's combination of sunny days and cold nights has been perfect for developing strong leaf colour.
Over the next few weeks of course, the trees will be transformed to bare skeletons and that process is likely to be hastened by strong winds as a succession of Atlantic depressions roll in from the west.
There's little sign of any significant wintry weather in our monthly outlook, in fact those Atlantic winds will bring unusually mild weather at times.
Monday 1 November 2010 to Sunday 7 November 2010
Windy and surprisingly mild

Once the southwesterly winds crank up later on Monday, they're in for most of the week, reaching gale force at times in some exposed areas.
As a frontal zone waves northwards and southwards across the country, so the areas of wettest weather change, but western upslopes are likely to see the highest totals.
Very mild air to the south of the frontal zone has potential to produce daytime temperatures in the high teens and some exceptionally mild nights, while cooler air makes occasional inroads across the north.
That's more likely at the end of the week, as the weather patterns begin to move southwards.

Monday 8 November 2010 to Sunday 14 November 2010
Turbulent weather begins to ease

It will be windy at first with the risk of gales, with the possibility of severe gales in the south and west.
Thereafter, a change to quieter, drier and brighter conditions is expected, although showers are still likely, especially in the north and west, with the driest conditions in the south and east.
After a mainly mild start, especially in the south, temperatures are likely to drop to near normal, with some snow just about possible on the Scottish Mountains.

Monday 15 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010
Less rain, lower temperatures

The westerly airflow is expected to become lighter during the second half of November, allowing the weather to settle down a little.
Rainfall amounts should decrease as a result, especially across the east of England and the southwest of the UK.
Temperatures are expected to start above average, but then to ease down towards the late November average of 8 to 10C later in the month.

cammo 30

im still hoping for a repeat of last winter or even worse. snow snow snow

Birdnuts

The forecast based on La Nina sounds a bit dull for this part of Europe - hopefully the "blocking" High will be as far North as possible and not a crappy "Eurothrash" one!!

Redsunset

Thats it now,a cold winter is on the way.

I remember seeing in one of Joe B's blogs that he mentioned a cold med was the signal for a colder than normal winter.:D ( yeah if only it was that simple),but he did mention that it was a strong signal,i wonder does anyone remember that blog entry or have it saved,it would be from last year.



This time last years cold mediteranean,although lots of differences in other areas around the world.