Winter 2010-2011 outlook

nacho libre

the end of the zonal flow for while, leading to a blocking high in the mid atlantic , or a brief respite...?

nacho libre

taken from netweather:
GP:
"These lend weight to the idea that blocking will feature over large parts of the North Atlantic to start the winter, probably not as much over Scandinavia as hinted at here as I suspect the tendency for pressure to be higher to the north and north west of the UK.

So, going forward, a continuation of the unsettled conditions but noticeably below average (but not excessively so) as the jet flow is negatively tilted c/o the blocking over the NE Canadian sector. Into December, and we're looking at the sort of switch around that happend last year and the year before with drier and colder conditions taking hold and -NAO pattern. "

Redsunset

Shhh!! It was ment to be a surprise. Join lucy kennedy and the big switch.

derekon

nacho libre wrote: »

taken from netweather:
GP:
"These lend weight to the idea that blocking will feature over large parts of the North Atlantic to start the winter, probably not as much over Scandinavia as hinted at here as I suspect the tendency for pressure to be higher to the north and north west of the UK.

So, going forward, a continuation of the unsettled conditions but noticeably below average (but not excessively so) as the jet flow is negatively tilted c/o the blocking over the NE Canadian sector. Into December, and we're looking at the sort of switch around that happend last year and the year before with drier and colder conditions taking hold and -NAO pattern. "

Dare we say it but are all the elements now moving into place for a repeat of last year's winter?

Derek

jambofc

nacho libre wrote: »

taken from netweather:
GP:
"These lend weight to the idea that blocking will feature over large parts of the North Atlantic to start the winter, probably not as much over Scandinavia as hinted at here as I suspect the tendency for pressure to be higher to the north and north west of the UK.

So, going forward, a continuation of the unsettled conditions but noticeably below average (but not excessively so) as the jet flow is negatively tilted c/o the blocking over the NE Canadian sector. Into December, and we're looking at the sort of switch around that happend last year and the year before with drier and colder conditions taking hold and -NAO pattern. "

i really hope this comes off nacho,im sick of the rain give me cold but dry any time over this depressing deluge....
im watching things develop and confidence is slowly creeping up but still low enough at the mo.

ongarboy

derekon wrote: »

Dare we say it but are all the elements now moving into place for a repeat of last year's winter?

Derek

Well I know this should be taken with a pinch of salt but the Metro Herald this morning had an article saying that postman in Donegal who is known for his accuracy had the same prediction for this winter as he did for last (ie severe and cold) so maybe it's true. Also, from my purely non scientific observation, the holly bushes are covered with red berries again this year which is an old wives prediction of a harsh winter (ie to feed the birds as the ground will be frozen over)

Kippure

derekon wrote: »

Dare we say it but are all the elements now moving into place for a repeat of last year's winter?

Derek

Theres no daring about it derekon, its a 90% carbon copy of the set-up we had leading into winter last year.

Not

ongarboy wrote: »

Well I know this should be taken with a pinch of salt but the Metro Herald this morning had an article saying that postman in Donegal who is known for his accuracy had the same prediction for this winter as he did for last (ie severe and cold) so maybe it's true. Also, from my purely non scientific observation, the holly bushes are covered with red berries again this year which is an old wives prediction of a harsh winter (ie to feed the birds as the ground will be frozen over)

LOL - first psychic Donegal post men, now psychic holly bushes - what do holly bushes know about the weather two months in the future

Vanstring

^^^ More than you'd think. Nature is tuned in to its surroundings!!!

Mmcd

Vanstring wrote: »

^^^ More than you'd think. Nature is tuned in to its surroundings!!!

Only when it'll benefit and be more likely to survive by changing. That's evolution. More berries helps birds, not the actual trees.

peasant

Mmcd wrote: »

Only when it'll benefit and be more likely to survive by changing. That's evolution. More berries helps birds, not the actual trees.

OT ...but you need to think your evolution theory to the end.
Trees that grow berries grow them for a reason ...to spread their seeds via birds' digestive system. Offer the best takeway foods during harsh times and you shall win the dispersal game (and you're keeping your couriers alive)

Rabble Rabble

Kippure wrote: »

Theres no daring about it derekon, its a 90% carbon copy of the set-up we had leading into winter last year.

Is that true. I remember it being very very windy and stormy last year, until about mid November. Nowhere near as warm.

derekon

Not wrote: »

LOL - first psychic Donegal post men, now psychic holly bushes - what do holly bushes know about the weather two months in the future

I think Ongarboy has made a valid point here. The blooming holly bushes are most likely a sign of a harsh winter ahead......

Derek

Not

derekon wrote: »

I think Ongarboy has made a valid point here. The blooming holly bushes are most likely a sign of a harsh winter ahead......

Derek

IMO more likely a reaction to this years weather to date which must have been favourable to holly bushes, as was evidently last years weather. I am very skeptical about extrapolating that to say that its going to be harsh winter.

I really hope we do not have a winter this year like the last one. A few good periods of snow would be entertaining, but the excessively low temperatures last winter were not fun with everything freezing up, prolonged disruption to water supplies, etc - all that I could do without this year. Anyway, you dont need temperatures that low for snow.

derekon

Not wrote: »

IMO more likely a reaction to this years weather to date which must have been favourable to holly bushes, as was evidently last years weather. I am very skeptical about extrapolating that to say that its going to be harsh winter.

I really hope we do not have a winter this year like the last one. A few good periods of snow would be entertaining, but the excessively low temperatures last winter were not fun with everything freezing up, prolonged disruption to water supplies, etc - all that I could do without this year. Anyway, you dont need temperatures that low for snow.

I think that is a fair point especially about the really freezing weather we had last year.

I mean I think the midlands recorded a low of -16oC (Dublin dropped to -12oc) however it was the longevity of the cold spell that was remarkable. I rememeber one of the days during this cold spell that the temp in Dublin did not rise above -4oC, that was the max !

I could do without that too. And the great thing about snow is that we can easily get a good fall of the white stuff when the temp is hovering between 0oC and 2oC , provided the dew points are agreeable!

Derek

thetonynator

derekon wrote: »

I think that is a fair point especially about the really freezing weather we had last year.

I mean I think the midlands recorded a low of -16oC (Dublin dropped to -12oc) however it was the longevity of the cold spell that was remarkable. I rememeber one of the days during this cold spell that the temp in Dublin did not rise above -4oC, that was the max !

I could do without that too. And the great thing about snow is that we can easily get a good fall of the white stuff when the temp is hovering between 0oC and 2oC , provided the dew points are agreeable!

Derek

-16.3 in kilkenny!! I will not have our achievements attributed to the midlands!!!

And in case anyone is going to mention it, the weather is a competition!!!

opinion guy

derekon wrote: »

I think that is a fair point especially about the really freezing weather we had last year.

I mean I think the midlands recorded a low of -16oC (Dublin dropped to -12oc) however it was the longevity of the cold spell that was remarkable. I rememeber one of the days during this cold spell that the temp in Dublin did not rise above -4oC, that was the max !

I could do without that too. And the great thing about snow is that we can easily get a good fall of the white stuff when the temp is hovering between 0oC and 2oC , provided the dew points are agreeable!

Derek

My memory is it hit -19 in Cavan or somewhere like that

WolfeIRE

I think Villian in Carlow recorded the lowest temp. He has a weather station in Tullow.

Kenring

Birdnuts wrote: »

The forecast based on La Nina sounds a bit dull for this part of Europe

The idea of La Nina is misleading. La Nina is the normal situation. It is not something to be watched, dreaded or wondered about any more than we wonder about other normal things. La Nina is simply the easterly airflow caused by the easterly equatorial surface currents.

Easterlies trekking along the equator used to be called the "trade winds". Every schoolchild over the past century learnt about them. If not for the trade winds there would have been no slave trade, and if no slave trade we wouldn't have one day gotten rock'n'roll.

The cooler easterlies flow until there comes a point when the sealevel rises too much from this, actually a 62cm difference is enough to trigger a simple sealevel restoration, in which instead of the sea flowing to the east, it flows the other way generating westerlies, called El Nino since 1982 when they noticed warmer weather on westerlies turning up around Peru, killing fish and bringing algae bloom.

It is like the sloshing back and forth in a dish. They thought they had found something new, until it was discovered that 15,000 year old weather tally-sticks showing El Nino cycles had been sitting in their own Peruvian museums for hundreds of years and were always known about by fishermen.

Because they had a name for this El Nino restoration period it was decided to name the other, the non-El Nino time, hence La Nina was suddenly riding airwaves and it became the thing to say when meteorologists and anchors wanted to appear knowledgeable. They still don't seem to understand it, which is why you can get hot, cold, dry or wet El Ninos and La Ninas.

When I was a child La Nina wasn't heard of - does that mean there weren't any? IMO we should drop La Nina because it describes normality and as such is meaningless. Normality is not a condition, so why talk about it as if it was some anomaly? In these days of scaremongering in order to receive ongoing State research funding, is it not rather bizarre that just about every weather system is considered an anomaly? It is like going to hospital because you are well, the wellness being given a Latin name, having a specialist prescribing something for it.

When this normality gets into full swing, probably around January, you will not see blaring headlines, "Normal Winter, Scientists Warn." When La Nina comes into a conversation, I am reminded of the story of the bloke who had such a negative personality that when he entered a crowded room everyone looked around and asked who just left.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

The idea of La Nina is misleading. La Nina is the normal situation. It is not something to be watched, dreaded or wondered about any more than we wonder about other normal things. La Nina is simply the easterly airflow caused by the easterly equatorial surface currents.

Easterlies trekking along the equator used to be called the "trade winds". Every schoolchild over the past century learnt about them. If not for the trade winds there would have been no slave trade, and if no slave trade we wouldn't have one day gotten rock'n'roll.

The cooler easterlies flow until there comes a point when the sealevel rises too much from this, actually a 62cm difference is enough to trigger a simple sealevel restoration, in which instead of the sea flowing to the east, it flows the other way generating westerlies, called El Nino since 1982 when they noticed warmer weather on westerlies turning up around Peru, killing fish and bringing algae bloom.

It is like the sloshing back and forth in a dish. They thought they had found something new, until it was discovered that 15,000 year old weather tally-sticks showing El Nino cycles had been sitting in their own Peruvian museums for hundreds of years and were always known about by fishermen.

Because they had a name for this El Nino restoration period it was decided to name the other, the non-El Nino time, hence La Nina was suddenly riding airwaves and it became the thing to say when meteorologists and anchors wanted to appear knowledgeable. They still don't seem to understand it, which is why you can get hot, cold, dry or wet El Ninos and La Ninas.

When I was a child La Nina wasn't heard of - does that mean there weren't any? IMO we should drop La Nina because it describes normality and as such is meaningless. Normality is not a condition, so why talk about it as if it was some anomaly? In these days of scaremongering in order to receive ongoing State research funding, is it not rather bizarre that just about every weather system is considered an anomaly? It is like going to hospital because you are well, the wellness being given a Latin name, having a specialist prescribing something for it.

When this normality gets into full swing, probably around January, you will not see blaring headlines, "Normal Winter, Scientists Warn." When La Nina comes into a conversation, I am reminded of the story of the bloke who had such a negative personality that when he entered a crowded room everyone looked around and asked who just left.

La Nina be normal(i.e. it happens every 4 years or so) but it has a major effect on the world's weather.

The moon may be one effect on the weather Ken but it's not the only one. It's only a tiny peice in a huge jigsaw

jimmy.d

was sitting in the car today in enniscorthy and for about 10 mins it was snowing very lightly hows that posibile

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

La Nina be normal(i.e. it happens every 4 years or so) but it has a major effect on the world's weather.

The moon may be one effect on the weather Ken but it's not the only one. It's only a tiny peice in a huge jigsaw

I agree that the moon isn't not the only influence, and I deliberately kept the moon away from the conversation when making my point. But now that you do mention it, the La Nina/El Nino cycle is about 4.5 years which is the quadrant of the lunar declination cycle. If you think about tides and the size of the moon's influence there, well, that's the same influence on weather. Weather is just air-tides.
To say La Nina be normal but it has a major effect on the world's weather simply doesn't make logical sense. Normal, by definition, doesn't have "an effect" on anything. It's like saying the Sun has some effect on a sunny day.

Birdnuts

jimmy.d wrote: »

was sitting in the car today in enniscorthy and for about 10 mins it was snowing very lightly hows that posibile

Are you sure you weren't sitting on the "magic bus"?? to quote a certain Keith Moon;)

thetonynator

jimmy.d wrote: »

was sitting in the car today in enniscorthy and for about 10 mins it was snowing very lightly hows that posibile

Are you sure there wasn't someone with bad dandruff sitting on the roof?? :P

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

I agree that the moon isn't not the only influence, and I deliberately kept the moon away from the conversation when making my point. But now that you do mention it, the La Nina/El Nino cycle is about 4.5 years which is the quadrant of the lunar declination cycle. If you think about tides and the size of the moon's influence there, well, that's the same influence on weather. Weather is just air-tides.
To say La Nina be normal but it has a major effect on the world's weather simply doesn't make logical sense. Normal, by definition, doesn't have "an effect" on anything. It's like saying the Sun has some effect on a sunny day.

Well a low pressure is normal yet they seem to a fairly good job of effecting the weather. but that must be my imagination because it defies logical sense, lol!

If lunar cycles control La Nina or El Niño then that 4.5 year interval you speak of would hold through for every case, yet this one is only 3 years after the last which was six years after the on in 2006. That seems to be a bit varied considering in is controlled by the fixed lunar cycle.

As a matter of interest Ken, what college did you study meteorology or climatology at?

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well a low pressure is normal yet they seem to a fairly good job of effecting the weather. but that must be my imagination because it defies logical sense, lol!

If lunar cycles control La Nina or El Niño then that 4.5 year interval you speak of would hold through for every case, yet this one is only 3 years after the last which was six years after the on in 2006. That seems to be a bit varied considering in is controlled by the fixed lunar cycle.

As a matter of interest Ken, what college did you study meteorology or climatology at?

3+6=9. Half of 9 = 4.5. The more examples you take, the more it averages out. Kind of illustrates my point, doesn't it?

As for my college, strange question, why do you ask?

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

If lunar cycles control La Nina or El Niño then that 4.5 year interval you speak of would hold through for every case?

I just don't think nature respects this unyielding and binding word "every". A year is just our human way of trying to organise activities and a feeble attempt to drop nature into time categories. That's when we come unstuck, because having applied a year and then raised a toast to that we then get surprised the following year when nature won't perform. We then get alarmed and call nature bizarre, but we were at fault for small sampling. I venture to say the La Nina is as close to the normal as we can expect. If we accept that, there can be no such thing as a strong La Nina.

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

I just don't think nature respects this unyielding and binding word "every". A year is just our human way of trying to organise activities and a feeble attempt to drop nature into time categories. That's when we come unstuck, because having applied a year and then raised a toast to that we then get surprised the following year when nature won't perform. We then get alarmed and call nature bizarre, but we were at fault for small sampling. I venture to say the La Nina is as close to the normal as we can expect. If we accept that, there can be no such thing as a strong La Nina.

I'm no expert, but to a layman such as myself without any meteorological qualifications, would ''normal'' not be the intervening time between el nino and la nina??? i.e. when it is not at any extreme?

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

I'm no expert, but to a layman such as myself without any meteorological qualifications, would ''normal'' not be the intervening time between el nino and la nina??? i.e. when it is not at any extreme?

Not as I understand it. You have to wait half a year. "An El Niño or La Niña event is identified if the 5-month running-average of the NINO3.4 index exceeds +0.4°C for El Niño or -0.4°C for La Niña for at least 6 consecutive months".
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/climimage.jsp?i=nino34
Until then it is only a La Nina "condition". If it stays it is called a La Nina "episode". Well, it reached -4C about July. That means we have to wait until January. La Nina/El Nino is always named in hindsight.

But meteorologists like jumping the gun. When they get caught out they apply words like a fizzer, a weak La Nina, etc, rather than admit they tried to make premature headlines.

Look closely. Each vertical line is a week in the above link. You can see that the "condition" over the past 3 weeks has actually been diminishing. That's why meteorologists have all gone a bit quiet.

opinion guy

Kenring wrote: »

But meteorologists like jumping the gun.

Isn't that kind of their job ?? :P