Winter 2010-2011 outlook

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

3+6=9. Half of 9 = 4.5. The more examples you take, the more it averages out. Kind of illustrates my point, doesn't it?

As for my college, strange question, why do you ask?

I was saying that if ENSO was controlled by lunar cycles that would mean the intervals would be equal, like the tides.

It actually illustrates my point, it doesn't mater if they average out, lunar cycles are fixed therefore any cycles they control on earth would be too(like the tides).

Kenring

opinion guy wrote: »

Isn't that kind of their job ?? :P

It's a matter of opinion. Why not tell it like it is? Don't say La Nina when you mean normal.
Not that I am casting met-people in the same light, but I doubt whether it's any defence if a burglar said to the judge, hey mate, I was only doing my job.

opinion guy

Kenring wrote: »

It's a matter of opinion. Why not tell it like it is? Don't say La Nina when you mean normal.
Not that I am casting met-people in the same light, but I doubt whether it's any defence if a burglar said to the judge, hey mate, I was only doing my job.

To be honest with you kenring this whole thread is way over my head - I'm kind of in awe of what you guys do (and its not often I say that about anything technical). I'm just here cause I like snow and I like to watch you guys banter about stuff I know next to nothing about

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I was saying that if ENSO was controlled by lunar cycles that would mean the intervals would be equal, like the tides.

It actually illustrates my point, it doesn't mater if they average out, lunar cycles are fixed therefore any cycles they control on earth would be too(like the tides).

Fair enough, and they are, longterm. Hence the science of longrange forecasting.

Kenring

opinion guy wrote: »

To be honest with you kenring this whole thread is way over my head - I'm kind of in awe of what you guys do (and its not often I say that about anything technical). I'm just here cause I like snow and I like to watch you guys banter about stuff I know next to nothing about

I think we're all just playing around the edges. Just having curiosity and the honesty to say you're still learning is I think what we're all about, and why we're on this blog..

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Fair enough, and they are, longterm. Hence the science of longrange forecasting.

By longterm you mean averaging out, right? So you took my point realised your wrong and said what you said earlier in a different way!

If it's a case of lunar cycles controlling ENSO the ENSO cycle would coincide with the lunar cycle in every case, yet it doesn't, can you find one example of where it has?

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

By longterm you mean averaging out, right? So you took my point realised your wrong and said what you said earlier in a different way!

If it's a case of lunar cycles controlling ENSO the ENSO cycle would coincide with the lunar cycle in every case, yet it doesn't, can you find one example of where it has?

1902-3, 1905-6, 1911-12, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1923-24, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1932-33, 1939-40, 1941-42, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98
all close to max dec, min dec or midpoints. I can't elaborate much more or tell you where to verify this because I promised the moderator not to selfpromote. Maybe go to Google to chase this further.
cheers

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

1902-3, 1905-6, 1911-12, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1923-24, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1932-33, 1939-40, 1941-42, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98
all close to max dec, min dec or midpoints. I can't elaborate much more or tell you where to verify this because I promised the moderator not to selfpromote. Maybe go to Google to chase this further.
cheers

Theres only 2 examples there were they could have a 4.5 year. Well done on disproving yourself!!!

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Theres only 2 examples there were they could have a 4.5 year. Well done on disproving yourself!!!

But you only asked for one example! Tough crowd..

MUSEIST

Awful smell of sh!te in the air these days:rolleyes:

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

But you only asked for one example! Tough crowd..

But your wrong, if you were correct, every la nina on record would be a example.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But your wrong, if you were correct, every la nina on record would be a example.

Sorry, I wasn't clear..that list was for El Ninos. You can't have a record for nothings

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Sorry, I wasn't clear..that list was for El Ninos. You can't have a record for nothings

LOL, you do realise that el nino is above average temps in the pacific and la nina is below average temps, both of which have a huge effect on global weather comparing to the normal state of the pacific.

I don't know what you mean by ''nothing''?

nacho libre

so it looks like the signs are slowly but surely becoming favourable for a mostly settled December to prevail. it is suggested the nao could be going well into negatve territory in early December. the jet could also be going on trip somwhere to the south of Ireland(although unfortunately not as far south as last year) by that stage. however, unlike last year, it's doubtful we're going to get major winter warming in the stratosphere this year, so once undercutting of the anticyclone has taken place, and we go back to a zonal flow, it's hard to see a blocking high re-establishing itself. although MT'S colleague 'blastfromthepast' did hint that there could be a "sting in tail" going into February.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

LOL, you do realise that el nino is above average temps in the pacific and la nina is below average temps, both of which have a huge effect on global weather comparing to the normal state of the pacific.

I don't know what you mean by ''nothing''?

Maybe you didn't read the earlier posts. I think you are repeating what you have heard, said by alarmists. LN and EN only are the aftereffects of the SOI which is a 4.5 year tide of current direction/reversal that occurs at the equator, that used to be called the easterly trade winds and westerly anti-trade winds. Of themselves EN and LN do nothing. It's like saying shivering causes cold. La Nina IS the normal state of the Pacific. El Nino is the descriptive comment on a recent stablisation found to have occurred.

WolfeIRE

Looks like Wednesday will be the coldest day of the coming week before temps pick up, though not considerably so. Only a few scattered showers on Wed so do not be banking on seeing any significant wintry weather for the next week at least.

However, temps do drop back at the end of next weekend and things look like staying chilly into next week (week commencing 15 Nov).

On an aside, the below/attached 850hPa (upper air temps) for Tuesday week are very interesting. I have not seen such a set up before where ireland and the UK are surrounded by milder air in all directions are in effect sitting in their own pool of cold air. Look how high north the warmer temps extend.

Of course, the GFS may have had an off night but it looks unusual.

thetonynator

That is FI territory though so not a very realistic scenario!!!

WolfeIRE

of course tony but i still have not seen that setup in FI. That was my point.

PS...your exclamation marks are the signature of a man who has lost all faith in long range models You're not on your own

thetonynator

WolfeIRE wrote: »

of course tony but i still have not seen that setup in FI. That was my point.

PS...your exclamation marks are the signature of a man who has lost all faith in long range models You're not on your own

Oh right i thought you'd just never seen it come to pass.

Yes i have losta ll faith in them, but 2 weeks ago they did have this area of low pressure centred over ireland for tomorrow . . .but its a bit tamer than they said.

Rebelbrowser

This is what the Beeb are saying for the next month.....

Published at 10:00, 8 November
(Next update at 10:00, 15 November)
Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

A stormy start but a settled end

It looks more like October for the next week or two: Deep depressions with strong winds and much rain. The expected anticyclonic, cold, fog and damp of November is more likely just before the month is out.

Monday 8 November 2010 to Sunday 14 November 2010
Stormy large depressions

Hill snow - several centimetres in the Grampian Mountains. Severe gales - 70+mph gusts in the Western Isles. Heavy rain - 30mm in Cumbria. These are conditions more reminiscent of the end of the hurricane season when we get obviously violent conditions.
Apart from ex-hurricane Tomas, whose various parts might be included in the end of the week's low, there is no tropical air in these babies.
There is also a visit to the cold easterlies on Tuesday as a precursor to what in January or February would be the coldest of weather. Even now it's raw.


Monday 15 November 2010 to Sunday 21 November 2010
Less stormy, less large depressions

You'll still hear he word "unsettled" in the broadcasts and it'll be more often windy than still and frosty.
There is an indication of further snow on northern hills and conversely warming weather in southern Britain. This might be explained by smaller depressions running across the north of the UK whilst dragging a southwesterly airflow across the south.
The week will probably end with the thought of frost and fog.


Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010
Colder and clearer

Early rain in the south is indicated, then the weather dries up. This time it's probably a spell of high pressure building in cold air. This is pointed to by the trend in computer models to below average temperatures, thus night frosts and below average rainfall from the end of week 3.
During week 4, below average sunshine is suggested in southern UK. This is a possible indication of anticyclonic gloom again. Most likely cloud from the North Sea trapped under the high pressure dome. Typical of November but this is now December!

WolfeIRE

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Apart from ex-hurricane Tomas, whose various parts might be included in the end of the week's low, there is no tropical air in these babies.

Imagine Evelyn Cusack saying something like this :pac:

nacho libre

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

not sure if this is the right thread, but hopefully we'll see a scene like this in Ireland soon enough!

desolate sun

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

not sure if this is the right thread, but hopefully we'll see a scene like this in Ireland soon enough!

I'm assuming there was snow falling on that webcam?

So weather people, are things pointing to a mild winter or is there a chance of a cold one, like last year?

Kenring

desolate sun wrote: »

I'm assuming there was snow falling on that webcam?

So weather people, are things pointing to a mild winter or is there a chance of a cold one, like last year?

Mild winter compared to last year.

jambofc

Kenring wrote: »

Mild winter compared to last year.

anything will be considered mild compared to last year temperature wise.

Kenring

jambofc wrote: »

anything will be considered mild compared to last year temperature wise.

For sure. Just answering Desolate Sun's question.

nacho libre

desolate sun wrote: »

I'm assuming there was snow falling on that webcam?

So weather people, are things pointing to a mild winter or is there a chance of a cold one, like last year?

yeah there was wet snow on that cam yesterday.

here's one with snow at the moment:

Pangea

It was on the radio earlier that it was snowing in the sally gap.

opinion guy

Pangea wrote: »

It was on the radio earlier that it was snowing in the sally gap.

Awesome. Hmmm may have to take a drive....

snowstreams

opinion guy wrote: »

Awesome. Hmmm may have to take a drive....

Good luck on the search up there.
The snow-forecast.com website has a few cm of snow for wicklow above 600m tonight. wont be any good for snow sports though

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Snowdon/map