Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Min

Pangea wrote: »

It was on the radio earlier that it was snowing in the sally gap.

Not surprised, those showers were pretty cold.

Pangea

snowstreams wrote: »

Good luck on the search up there.
The snow-forecast.com website has a few cm of snow for wicklow above 600m tonight. wont be any good for snow sports though

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Snowdon/map

Dammit looks like I wont get a run out in my new skis then

cammo 30

ok people, i have been on the net like a freak the last month looking up the coming winter in ireland to see if snow is on the way or a repeat of last years temperatures........from wat i can find its looking like a repeat of last winter if not worse and i do hope its worse. a white christmas (not frost lol) would be great im saying 60/40 for a white christmas.....as for the rest of winter it looks like it will be starting early december, although some cold weather is forcast for mid to late next week with a 30/70 chance of snow on tuesday the 16th (according to metcheck) but that changes every other day.....

so its looking good just need the cold temps to turn all the rain to snow lets hope so.

ps long range forecast for sligo got last winter so wrong saying it would be mild and wet. so dont listen 2 them lol.

pps im getting my info for all this from the net and old grannies and old wives tales " o its going to be a perishing winter, we'll be on rations by feb" lol lol lol:rolleyes:

Pangea

I have a good feeling about this winter, there has been a lot of frosty nights already and its only novermebr 9th, im fairly confident that we will get a good lengthy cold spell not so sure about the snow though, thats a different kettle of fish as you all know.

derekon

Pangea wrote: »

I have a good feeling about this winter, there has been a lot of frosty nights already and its only novermebr 9th, im fairly confident that we will get a good lengthy cold spell not so sure about the snow though, thats a different kettle of fish as you all know.

I agree with Pangea on this one. Snow is notoriously difficult to forecast in Ireland and its all due to marginality.

How many times has it been 2oC in Ireland and rained ? And you know if the Dew Point (DP) would only drop a degree or so , then we would be talking about snow!

That said, winter is definitely the best season in Ireland due to the variety of weather it throws at our little island in the North Atlantic.....watch the boards here come alive as the first snow flakes begin to fall on our
island

cammo 30

were is that in the pic

nacho libre

cammo 30 wrote: »

were is that in the pic

A Scottish ski resort.

delw

derekon wrote: »

I agree with Pangea on this one. Snow is notoriously difficult to forecast in Ireland and its all due to marginality.

How many times has it been 2oC in Ireland and rained ? And you know if the Dew Point (DP) would only drop a degree or so , then we would be talking about snow!

That said, winter is definitely the best season in Ireland due to the variety of weather it throws at our little island in the North Atlantic.....watch the boards here come alive as the first snow flakes begin to fall on our
island

:eek: derekon cant belive you didnt finish your post with your name like you always do,is everything alright?

derekon

delw wrote: »

:eek: derekon cant belive you didnt finish your post with your name like you always do,is everything alright?

Oh go on just for you .....:D

Derek

derekon

Actually, was just reading MT Cranium's forecast for the next few days and the upcoming strong winds due tomororw and he confirmed that he will be issuing his winter forecast this weekend.

However, already he is alluding to a possible period of some proper cold weather in December.

Looking forward to the details however this looks promising already

cammo 30

happy days...can u send me a link wen he gives the winter forecast.

WolfeIRE

It is now increasingly looking like we will have 'only' three weeks of rain and normal temps in November. A lot more rain to come between now and then however.

The fourth week (around 21st onwards) of the month and into December look like being decidedly cold originating in scandanavia and later russia making its way slowly west. Blocking Highs to our North and Northeast should do the trick.

Cold and frost conditions will be the order of the day but any encroaching weather systems from the atlantic would bring with them significant potential for snow.

confidence in colder air from the east/ne over ireland in fourth week of november/first week of december = 60%

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

It is now increasingly looking like we will have 'only' three weeks of rain and normal temps in November. A lot more rain to come between now and then however.

The fourth week (around 21st onwards) of the month and into December look like being decidedly cold originating in scandanavia and later russia making its way slowly west. Blocking Highs to our North and Northeast should do the trick.

Cold and frost conditions will be the order of the day but any encroaching weather systems from the atlantic would bring with them significant potential for snow.

confidence in colder air from the east/ne over ireland in fourth week of november/first week of december = 60%

am i wrong in thinking that height rises over greenland would be the icing on the cake in terms of sustained cold being maintained?

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

am i wrong in thinking that height rises over greenland would be the icing on the cake in terms of sustained cold being maintained?

models are indicating one between greenland and iceland and another over northern Sweden/Finland

that would bode well for a sustained period of cold not too disimilar to what we saw last year.

delw

derekon wrote: »

Oh go on just for you .....:D

Derek

:D

cammo 30

its a pity its not snowing today and yesterday....lots of snow mixed wiv all this wind would be the makings of a hell of a blizzard.


im sick of this rain. bring on the cold snowy winter we all want

WolfeIRE

Long range weather models indicate at least a temporary reprieve to the unsettled spell of weather affecting Ireland and the UK in recent weeks.



Models have been consistent in recent days regarding a rise in pressure leading to a much quieter, frosty period of weather during the final third of the month.


Day time highs in the final week of November during this period will remain below normal, averaging in Ireland between 4-8C, while locally severe ground and air night frosts accompanied by fog are likely. Precipitation levels during the period also will be below average for the time of year.


High pressure blocking systems over Scandinavia and another located between Greenland and Iceland will result in a colder pool of air from the Continent drifting westwards over the British Isles. Models indicate that this blocking system could remain in place and keep Atlantic systems at bay until at least the end of the month.


The animated chart highlights how the rise in high pressure to the North and Northeast will gradually extend its influence over our weather later next week.


GFS Model







ECM Model

nacho libre

would prefer to see the blocking taking place a bit later, as in other years where we had a cold end to November into early December, the winter quite often turned out to be mild overall. also, i fear it could decrease our chances of getting a white christmas. as unless we get a repeat of last year- which is highly unlikely- then the block will be dismantled well before christmas

Still i'm a bit torn about all this - snow is usually my priority, but after yesterday's storm i'm really in the mood for another storm. i suppose the compromise solution would be a stormy winter at times which is then followed by snowy periods.

everybody wins- except those rare people who like mild and settled weather:p

so in conclusion let's hope the low solar activity plays a greater influence this winter than other global signals, which are suggesting it will be mild overall after a cold start.. the low solar activity certainly seemed to have had quite impact last year, where some were saying it was set to be a mild winter!

cammo 30

what about positive weather solutions they predicted the cold winter of 2009/2010 and say this year will be something similar if not worse....lets hope so

WolfeIRE

latest gfs has stuck with its easterly outbreak for last third of november. Looks like it will be settling down and cooling down significantly by the end of next weekend.

Rebelbrowser

Just posted by MT on his forecast thread... Long-range forecast summary

I will be posting a more detailed long-range forecast on a thread that was set up for winter discussion. But as of today, I wanted to mention that my outlook will be calling for significant cold spells in December and early January with likely above normal snowfall for Ireland in that part of the winter. Then it may turn considerably milder for a while before turning back to colder than average in February. More details on that over the weekend when I get a chance to post (have been fighting computer virus problems today).

cammo 30

any news on the long range forecast

Pangea

Heavy snow warnings out for a region in scotland
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Theanswers

Lads.
For someone who really dosent understand the weather and all,

what is the chances of this years winter being similar or colder to last year?

Pangea

I see one of the hills here in Donegal has snow on the top of it.

MetLuver

nacho libre wrote: »

everybody wins- except those rare people who like mild and settled weather:p

A rarity indeed.....on here anyway:D

Redsunset

BRUTAL WINTER OF 1962/63
A comparison to last year and what lies ahead?

Here i recall the long harsh winter of 62/63 and by using Teleconnections of the atmosphere i try to compare last years sustained cold and see what makes the perfect combination to enjoy the once abundant past cold winters.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtm
Teleconnections from above link
The term "teleconnection pattern" refers to a recurring and persistent, large-scale pattern of pressure and circulation anomalies that spans vast geographical areas. Teleconnection patterns are also referred to as preferred modes of low-frequency (or long time scale) variability. Although these patterns typically last for several weeks to several months, they can sometimes be prominent for several consecutive years, thus reflecting an important part of both the interannual and interdecadal variability of the atmospheric circulation. Many of the teleconnection patterns are also planetary-scale in nature, and span entire ocean basins and continents. For example, some patterns span the entire North Pacific basin, while others extend from eastern North America to central Europe. Still others cover nearly all of Eurasia.

http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/index.htm

The above link recalls a fantastic day to day summary of the winter that many have failed to live up to.
And there's also a great link to the 1947 freeze at bottom of page on that link with charts for everyday included,great stuff.
Now let me analyse that period with regards teleconnections.

QBO (QUASI BIENNIAL OSCILLATION)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

The QBO was very much negative during that bitterly harsh winter.
NOV DEC
1962 -15.40 -15.16

JAN FEB MAR
1963 -17.35 -16.68 -19.93


WINTER 2009/10
NOV DEC
2009 -13.83 -15.57

JAN FEB MAR
2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68

OCT
LAST MONTH 10.83 Now in positive state.

So looking at the state of the QBO last winter we can see that it gave 62/63 a great run for it's money,infact not too far off a match.

LAST MONTH OCTOBER 10.83 tis in its positive state which does not favour sustained cold.

NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION)
Explainations http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml


NOV DEC
1962 -0.23 -1.32

JAN FEB MAR
1963 -2.12 -0.96 -0.43


WINTER 2009/10
NOV DEC
2009 -0.02 -1.93

JAN FEB MAR
2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88


So reviewing probably one of the most crucial atmospheric states for our region,we see that the beginning of the big freeze in November 1962 was little below neutral as in slighty negative,where as November 2009 was fairly neutral.

Our big switch came in December 2009 with the NAO going into a strong negative state.

December 1962 almost on a par but we won that one.

Apart from Janurary 1963 being more negative we had the perfect Nao state to open the siberian door.


PNA (Pacific/North American Teleconnection Pattern)
NOV DEC
1962 0.57 -0.08

JAN FEB MAR
1963 0.58 0.81 -1.79



WINTER 2009/10
NOV DEC
2009 0.21 0.34

JAN FEB MAR
2010 1.25 0.58 2.02


Im not too sure what significant role this has on us however it looks like anything slightly positive helps with our cold because it went strongly negative in March of 63 and the big frreeze ended after the first week.

I could be wrong,just an observation.



East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR)


Now this is another interesting one.
NOV DEC
1962 -1.59 0.03

JAN FEB MAR
1963 -0.15 -0.74 1.49



WINTER 2009/10
NOV DEC
2009 -0.25 -0.79

JAN FEB MAR
2010 -0.63 -0.69 0.75



Again we see the change to strong positive in march 63 which also agrees with the end of the freeze.so anything below neutral seems to favour cold conditions here.




AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) "the DADDY":D



Well what can i say looking at this chart it would appear to come across very well that the winter of 62/63 was strongly negative peaking at
-3.311

NOV DEC
1962 -1.112 -0.711

JAN FEB MAR
1963 -3.311 -1.721 0.724

Note too that in march it went back positive and so also ended the big freeze of 1962/63


A negative AO indicates height rises over the Arctic people and it displaces the cold polar air further south,and guess what to all the new followers,thats exactly what happened last winter.

WINTER 2009/10
NOV DEC
2009 0.459 -3.413


JAN FEB MAR
2010 -2.587 -4.266 -0.432



Here's the last 30 days of 500mb height anomalies over northern hemisphere.










CURRENT AO CONDITIONS





CURRENT NAO CONDITIONS



So what does it all mean for this upcoming winter?
All i can say is that i shall be monitoring these teleconnections very closely and seeing what bearing they have on our weather.
Here's to a good cold one, takes a drink.:D

Well i hope this little comparison of winters 1962/63 and 2009/10 Teleconnections states helps somewhat in seeing what we need to fall into place for a super duper freeze,however its not as clear cut as this because these are just pieces of a huge jigsaw that hopefully someday will be completed to finally be able to stand back and eventually see the bigger picture. Over and out for now.

darkman2

End November Easterly freeze - tis possible.

derekon

Speaking of winter folks, its already pretty cold in Dublin this evening - its only 7.45pm and the temp is already down 0oC matching the current temp of freezing in Oslo, Norway

Is Winter slowly getting a grip on Ireland ?

Wild Bill

Snow on Kippure last week!