Winter 2010-2011 outlook

derekon

derekon wrote: »

Speaking of winter folks, its already pretty cold in Dublin this evening - its only 7.45pm and the temp is already down 0oC matching the current temp of freezing in Oslo, Norway

Is Winter slowly getting a grip on Ireland ?

Temp in Dublin at 10pm down to -1oC (lower than 0oc in Oslo)

Pangea

Uk expecting some snow in the future

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Nov 2010 to Sunday 28 Nov 2010:

Unsettled across southern parts of the UK to start, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. More settled in the north, but with showers at times, these wintry over the hills. Into the new week northeasterly winds will become prevalent. This will lead to a downward trend in temperatures across the UK with overnight frosts becoming more frequent and northern parts in particular becoming cold. Showers are likely at times, particularly across northern and eastern parts. These will be wintry over high ground, especially in the north, with an increasing chance of some snow to lower levels too. Best of any drier and brighter weather likely across southern and western parts of the UK.

Updated: 1139 on Sun 14 Nov 2010

Tabnabs

derekon wrote: »

Temp in Dublin at 10pm down to -1oC (lower than 0oc in Oslo)

Except Oslo already has snow...

Rebelbrowser

Dyflin wrote: »

Except Oslo already has snow...

Yeah but they'd kill for our economic prosperity.

Rebelbrowser

The Beeb monthly forecast is out again today, looks like a Beasterly! Alas sounds more cold than snowy......

Published at 10:00, 15 November
(Next update at 10:00, 22 November)
Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

From no wind to a cold, strong, nagging wind

The analysis of the pressure pattern on Remembrance Sunday showed four centres of low pressure within one large area. And one isobar. In other words no wind but lots of potential for showers.
The strong signal from models of the virtual earth over the next three weeks is high pressure over Scandinavia becoming dominant, leaving us in a cold and persistent easterly wind.
Monday 15 November 2010 to Sunday 21 November 2010
One of little lows grows up

The start of the week with oft clear skies and long nights will be both frosty and foggy.
Midweek should see the deepening of a low pressure centre somewhere to our west, eventually resulting in a strong southerly quarter wind (i.e. wind from between the southwest and the southeast) and slow moving rainbands.
The rain may never reach the east of the UK as the Scandinavian anticyclone builds to prevent such progress.
Looks like a cold week, at first due to lingering fog and early frost, later through strengthening winds. On a positive note, Northern Ireland and Scotland are forecast to have more sunshine than normal and a drier than average week.

Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010
Depression in France, the opposite in Sweden

With moderate confidence, this forecast generates a continuous easterly wind because of the mountain of air over Scandinavia and the hole in the atmosphere over western Europe.
That is, of course, a simplification but the top of the atmosphere really would look like that if you could see it and the wind really is that air trying to fall from the mountain to the valley and being diverted by the spin of the earth.
The result is a cold week with windchill although the wind is not strong and night frosts will form: Showers in the east, drier and sunnier than average in the west.

Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010
The Swedish mountain moves

The anticyclonic mountain of air looks likely to drift a little further west. The wind remains an easterly as a result but isn't indicated as too strong.
Again night frost and fog, especially in western UK, are possible. Temperatures are likely to be below average along with deficient rainfall, except maybe along North Sea coasts.
Again the positive is in the likely very sunny weather to the west of high ground, unless you are stuck in the fog.

Next week

Well as it will be well into Christmas shopping time, it's bound to be cold, sometimes wet and possibly windy ;-)

WolfeIRE

looks like we are in for a settled period of weather from next week. the threat of wintry showers for eastern half of country (particularly on higher ground 200asl)

nacho libre

I wonder will Joe Bastardi tweak his winter forecast? Did he mention anything about a cold end to autumn?

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder will Joe Bastardi tweak his winter forecast? Did he mention anything about a cold end to autumn?

He updated his Euro Blog again this morning and said he would be posting on the upcoming cold spell
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder will Joe Bastardi tweak his winter forecast? Did he mention anything about a cold end to autumn?

If everyone kept updating their intial winter forecast then everyone would be right in the end .

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

If everyone kept updating their intial winter forecast then everyone would be right in the end .

M.T. Cranium

Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

WolfeIRE

As a snow lover, you have made my day MT.

MUSEIST

Great stuff MT, hope it works out that way. I have my doubts unfortunately.

TheInquisitor

Can i just say WOW! Just WOW!!

joe199

so the roller coaster tickets are officially on sale!

Pangea

Oh the winter forecast!!
*grabs popcorn and coke.
Been waiting for this all weekend
Thanks M.T.

Rebelbrowser

Can a weather forecast be erotic? MT's forecast is what prompts this thought.......................

glossy

:D:D:D
MT
thanks for all your time and imput on for our lovely winter ahead of us

nacho libre

i have been waiting all weekend for this forecast. how to put into words how i elated i feel after reading that forecast. i feel like having a class of champagne:pac:

Musicman2000

My dream winter:D Hope it comes threw

maquiladora

Thats a bold forecast MT. I hope you are right.

Redsunset

Oh my god M.T, what have you done. Thats a dream forecast. This forum will never be the same again. I can see it now 1200 members and 10000 guests at winter's height. Oh i hope your even half right cause you did mighty well last year,however you did say that you were having conflicting signals so i hope they've been ironed out. I shall have the cuban and whiskey at the ready. Bring it on

odyboody

Right or wrong ( and I do hope your right), thanks for all all your research and daily information.
Very useful to those of us with an inrerest but little understanding of the weather.:rolleyes:

gothwalk

That's a forecast to look forward to! It's also clear that there's a huge amount of effort gone into putting it together, which we appreciate greatly: thank you!

darkman2

Some forecast alright! Cheered me up anyway. Nice one MT:)

snowjon

I'd just like to echo the sentiments from everyone else and say a big thanks to MT - that sounds like my perfect winter

Kippure

Holy Lord above, Get the beers in my son. Super forecast MT.

Stevek101

November 15, 2010 Monday Night
Chance of Snow

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/03969.html

One could dream

Darwin

Great forecast MT, hope it comes off - only really had one day of serious snow last year!

H2UMrsRobinson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread...

...higher than normal snowall amounts...

... with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many...

... I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned...

... I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

I think I want your babies...:P

Great forecast MT - although it's not set in stone you have spread a little hope and cheer to the Sneachtics on the boards!