Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Speak Now

Elmo5 wrote: »

accuweather forecasting snow for Nov 28th and 29th.... in Celbridge.

I know their longterm forecasts aren't the most dependable but still it made me smile
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast3.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=celbridge&metric=1

I'm looking forward to the 16c they're forecasting for Waterford tomorrow

maquiladora

Elmo5 wrote: »

accuweather forecasting snow for Nov 28th and 29th.... in Celbridge.

I know their longterm forecasts aren't the most dependable but still it made me smile
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast3.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=celbridge&metric=1

Those type of location based forecasts are just based on a computer program that looks up the co-ordinates of wherever you typed in and looks at what the global weather model show for that time for that location. There is no human forecasting going on and at long range the global weather models often show very different conditions each time they run so you really have to take those kinds of 'forecasts' with a massive pinch of salt.

Wintry showers from about midweek next week are possible but not in any exact area, always more likely to be snow on higher ground though.

M.T. Cranium

Feeling confident of cold outbreaks and the high-energy circulation moving along under the blocking, so should be an active winter, not all cold but when cold, potential for snow seems good.

The bit about the JC+SO then SC+JO events being well aligned ... not with each other, but these are two sets that are both well aligned, from the fact that the timing of JC overlaps SO, and the timing of SC overlaps JO, as a consequence of these two major players being at opposite points in the solar system this winter. I think the angle of separation reaches 180 degrees around January, it was something like 170 degrees back in September (to illustrate, we passed Jupiter on 21 Sept, then Saturn was behind the Sun on 1 Oct, but as Jupiter moves 2.5 times faster than Saturn, that small difference in alignment (opposite sides of solar system) was closing at that point, and would reach perfect alignment around January).

Those events are normally separated out by several days and therefore form two weaker sets of disturbances, but in this case they combine to form stronger overlapping disturbances, and then there's a third energy peak that happens to be aligned with them, one that remains in that sector as a part of the fixed star background. These disturbances have been running strong all through the autumn and I have to speculate that the sets coming up will produce some very strong lows.

As you guys know better than I do from watching the weather there longer, the storm track does not have to run south of Ireland to get snow, it all depends on the dynamics and what the various flow patterns have to work with in terms of thickness and upper temperatures, but clearly the best setups for snow are frontal boundaries to the south, and also lows forming in a generally northerly flow and drifting south or southwest near Ireland.

Bottom line is, I really feel confident that this will be an active winter with some great storm watching to come.

cammo 30

that accuweather is saying rain for drogheda on sunday even though the temps are 2 to -2. :mad: why is this does anyone no.


this makes me sad.

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

Those type of location based forecasts are just based on a computer program that looks up the co-ordinates of wherever you typed in and looks at what the global weather model show for that time for that location. There is no human forecasting going on and at long range the global weather models often show very different conditions each time they run so you really have to take those kinds of 'forecasts' with a massive pinch of salt.

Wintry showers from about midweek next week are possible but not in any exact area, always more likely to be snow on higher ground though.

As posted above about accuweather, take it with a large pich of salt

Elmo5

I did say that accuweather wasn't the most dependable, better off listening to MT

Deep Easterly

Iorras55 wrote: »

Deep Easterly where?

Here! :pac:

Wild Bill

cammo 30 wrote: »

that accuweather is saying rain for drogheda on sunday even though the temps are 2 to -2. :mad: why is this does anyone no.


this makes me sad.

Accuweather is pretty sad, in general. Utterly useless for very localised forecasts for Ireland. The Irish Times uses them and forecast fog in the morning on 320 of the past 365 days. :pac:

Aiel

Thanks for bursting my bubble guys.I had just checked Accuweather's 15 day forecast and it had SNOW for Galway on Monday week(29th).Yes i know it's accuweather and i know it's a 15 day forecast but it did say the magic word "SNOW" for Galway:).Now yer saying that it's probably not true?:(.

Wild Bill

Aiel wrote: »

Now yer saying that it's probably not true?:(.

"Probably" would be an understatement. :cool:

Hairy Nipples 87

looks bleak guys

cammo 30

check this out guys and gals.Winter 2010-2011 Weather Forecast For Ireland
Monday, November 15, 2010


Winter 2010-2011 Winter Weather Forecast, by iWeather Online's Peter O'Donnell.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

(Note - Nov 16 update at bottom of page)

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as January.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

thetonynator

cammo 30 wrote: »

check this out guys and gals.Winter 2010-2011 Weather Forecast For Ireland
Monday, November 15, 2010 IWO
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Winter 2010-2011 Winter Weather Forecast, by iWeather Online's Peter O'Donnell.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

(Note - Nov 16 update at bottom of page)

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as January.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

I presume you do know who that is???:P

oterra

Sounds very like our in house expert M.T

Winger_PL

oterra wrote: »

Sounds very like our in house expert M.T

That's because it is him

cammo 30

Winger_PL wrote: »

That's because it is him

its by some guy peter o donnell

Winger_PL

cammo 30 wrote: »

its by some guy peter o donnell

Obviously you're new to this part of boards.ie. Peter O'Donnell is M.T.Cranium, he posts his brilliant forecasts both right here (where the visitors are mostly weather forecasting enthusiasts) and on irishweatheronline.com (where the general public is able to easily access the forecasts).

delw

cammo 30 wrote: »

its by some guy peter o donnell

M.T does have a real name,guess what it is :rolleyes:

cammo 30

Winger_PL wrote: »

Obviously you're new to this part of boards.ie. Peter O'Donnell is M.T.Cranium, he posts his brilliant forecasts both right here (where the visitors are mostly weather forecasting enthusiasts) and on irishweatheronline.com (where the general public is able to easily access the forecasts).

i am new to this yes....i apologise i didnt no he is mt lol..... well i really like what he has predicted:cool:

Winger_PL

cammo 30 wrote: »

i am new to this yes....i apologise i didnt no he is mt lol..... well i really like what he has predicted:cool:

No need to apologise here, you did nothing wrong, what you posted just looks a wee bit funny for the usual crowd here as Peter is the one of the most recognized/respected users on this forum. I suggest you get familiar with the sticky threads here and it all should start making more sense to you soon enough.

Anyway, enough of that as we've strayed off topic here.

cammo 30

im not liking joe bastardis forecast for europe......i dont no why but i really think and feel that we are in for a cold snow covered winter in ireland and uk..

going on this la nina thingy if the cold air stays over ireland in dec/jan/feb if the la nina weather rolls into the cold air we are in for snow fall like we prob have never seen before... im prob way off with my understanding of la nina
ps wats a sticky thread lol

Speak Now

I thought Peter O'Donnell was just another Pseudonym for M.T.Cranium
I'd assumed his netweather handle was his real name :pac:

munsterlegend

Though not been posting have been following the forum closely in recent times.Great to see such a positive wintery forecast in one sense though not looking forward to the driving experience! last year had a number of hairy moments but lived to tell the tale. thanks to MT/Peter and all the experts for such great analysis.

WolfeIRE

HeY Munster. Nice to see you. Just in time to start up the Mallow snow reports, hopefully by the end of next week.

munsterlegend

cheers wolfe. fairly marginal around here at the best of times but we got lucky eventually last year. looking forward to the inevitable rollercoaster ups and downs!

Iancar29

PADDY POWER
Bet results for white christmas

Selection Event Type Event Market Odds Quick bet London White Christmas in 2010
White Christmas White Christmas 2010 White Christmas 2010 3.75

25 50 100 Dublin White Christmas in 2010
White Christmas White Christmas 2010 White Christmas 2010 4.33

25 50 100 Belfast White Christmas in 2010
White Christmas White Christmas 2010 White Christmas 2010 3.50

25 50 100 Cork White Christmas in 2010
White Christmas White Christmas 2010 White Christmas 2010 6.00

25 50 100 New York White Christmas 2010
White Christmas White Christmas 2010 White Christmas 2010 1.72

• Bet

25 50 100 Lanzarote White Christmas 2010
White Christmas White Christmas 2010 White Christmas 2010 101.00

25 50 100
€10 on Lanzarote people? haha

kstand

Its 8/1 with William Hill for it to snow in London (Buckingham Palce) or Manchester (Granada Studios) on Christmas Day. Not sure what the conditions are but those odds don't seem too bad based on what I'm reading here so had a flutter.

Speak Now

Horrible horrible odds by Mr. Power.

Redsunset

Yeah mr power must be reading the winter outlook thread.

Iancar29

Ye, they are indeed qutie bad, i got 12-1 around this time last year , so they must of lost a good bit havin them so high last year, and ye , he must be also reading these threads ha