Winter 2010-2011 outlook

WolfeIRE

"I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the current oceanic conditions the next northern winter will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850)."

A lot of what he says is fair enough but he is making some assumptions based on previous el nino and NAO trends. Joe B carries out his long range predictions on this basis too and is usually on the money.

maquiladora

Duiske wrote: »

An interesting piece here on the coming N Hemisphere winter.

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

After reading what this guy and Joe B and co have to say,I'm starting to think we should be careful what we wish for. :eek:

Seems to be a bit extreme to me.

BEASTERLY

Duiske wrote: »

An interesting piece here on the coming N Hemisphere winter.

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

After reading what this guy and Joe B and co have to say,I'm starting to think we should be careful what we wish for. :eek:

Well Joe B has been sayin Ireland and the uk will have a much closer to normal winter than last , and that central-eastern europe will be plastered.

Hope he's wrong , although he has been correct alot lately.

gally74

im thinking about digging up the pipe in the front lawn to bury it deeper, had a lot of fun last year in -12 with kettles etc.

BEASTERLY

gally74 wrote: »

im thinking about digging up the pipe in the front lawn to bury it deeper, had a lot of fun last year in -12 with kettles etc.

We have the atic converted so there is heating up there , and since that was on constantly , it kept the water flowing , well most of the time.

It was great to tease all the neighbours with as they went for ages without any water at all , ahahaha , i'm awful cruel

WolfeIRE

Post from MT in another thread yesterday. Has a bearing on this thread.

"alternating spells of mild and frosty cold in November. There might be one or two brief breakdowns to windy conditions with slight rainfalls at times where tropical activity breaks through a rather pervasive sprawling block over Europe.

The Atlantic may revive in late November and into much of the winter. I'm expecting a lot of variation in the winter patterns with a generally milder theme than the past two."

Elmo5

Saw this too, aint looking good for snow!

WolfeIRE

doesn't mean snow won't fall in between these milder spells. To be honest, it would be hard to top 2009-10 winter in terms of a sustained cold period of weather.

jambofc

Elmo5 wrote: »

Saw this too, aint looking good for snow!

i saw a lot more snow in normal winters than i did in our last winter,was bitterly cold but most of the snow missed meath......so all is not lost

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

doesn't mean snow won't fall in between these milder spells. To be honest, it would be hard to top 2009-10 winter in terms of a sustained cold period of weather.

yes you might see another winter like last year if you live into your late seventies.

anyway, as you say a milder winter overall can sometimes have brief cold snaps which result in a lot of snow. perhaps we could get a brief northerly incursion that bring gifts in the form of a polar low from Greenland:D
I know it's only August but the snow craving is already starting to taking hold...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I miss the snow

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

yes you might see another winter like last year if you live into your late seventies.

anyway, as you say a milder winter overall can sometimes have brief cold snaps which result in a lot of snow. perhaps we could get a brief northerly incursion that bring gifts in the form of a polar low from Greenland:D
I know it's only August but the snow craving is already starting to taking hold...

I'd much prefer a proper beast from the East , a 'BEASTERLY' :D:D

Elmo5

Would really love to see some snow flakes falling now, and to feel cold!


Really hope we even get a day or two of it.

MUSEIST

jaysus lads its august and we are talking about snow already.:eek:






I like this, continue please:p

lord lucan

t|nt|n wrote: »

I miss the snow

Me and my motorbike don't! Great on my day off to look out the window at it but horrible for commuting in!

Min

I don't miss the snow, there was like snow or ice here from December to April.
That's just about 3 months of no snow, since then......

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

yes you might see another winter like last year if you live into your late seventies.

anyway, as you say a milder winter overall can sometimes have brief cold snaps which result in a lot of snow. perhaps we could get a brief northerly incursion that bring gifts in the form of a polar low from Greenland:D
I know it's only August but the snow craving is already starting to taking hold...

I am actually hoping that this winter will be nowhere near as chilly as the last, but will welcome some big falls of snow, which milder winters actually bring! Also, we are well overdue some proper big mama storms too so I look forward to being compensated this coming winter. Snow, storm or both is preferable to what we experienced in the winter of 2009/2010.

Tabnabs

I'm not looking forward to bitter cold and high fuel bills, but am looking forward to some snow and fun

BEASTERLY

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am actually hoping that this winter will be nowhere near as chilly as the last, but will welcome some big falls of snow, which milder winters actually bring! Also, we are well overdue some proper big mama storms too so I look forward to being compensated this coming winter. Snow, storm or both is preferable to what we experienced in the winter of 2009/2010.

Well I was in Galway for the storm of mid January 2009 , what a cracker , lightning , hail , having to take a million detours due to roads flooded and power lines down , it really was brilliant! Wind speed record set at belmullet for the british ilses i think , 107mph:D:D:D. Any body else rember this?

Got home to Wexford to find , woke up in the morning to find the rear of the storm had turned to snow leaving a lovely blanket! The fact that the snow in feb only lasted 3 days was a dissapointment to say the least.

nacho libre

That storm was good but it was over too quickly if it's the one i'm thinking of.
I don't recall any snow either.
Speaking of snow and storms, we got something close to a snow storm last January.
There was very heavy snow, which was driven on by a strong wind, for a few hours. I certainly wouldn't say no to something like that again this winter!

Deep Easterly

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well I was in Galway for the storm of mid January 2009 , what a cracker , lightning , hail , having to take a million detours due to roads flooded and power lines down , it really was brilliant! Wind speed record set at belmullet for the british ilses i think , 107mph:D:D:D. Any body else rember this?

I remember it, 17th Jan 09 sting jet event. Some impressive windspeeds around the coasts alright but the strongest of the winds here inland only came in very short but very intense squall lines as Nacho will testify to aswell. I recorded 76mph during a thundersquall just before my anemometer, along with the tv ariel it was attached to, went flying off the roof!!

Having said that, we are capable of far better. The 17th Jan event, while impressive in its own right, was still nothing out of the ordinary in an ordinary winter!

Danno

I hate the wind... it's the lazy, ignorant man of the weather family. He'd rather go through you than around you.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I remember it, 17th Jan 09 sting jet event. Some impressive windspeeds around the coasts alright but the strongest of the winds here inland only came in very short but very intense squall lines as Nacho will testify to aswell. I recorded 76mph during a thundersquall just before my anemometer, along with the tv ariel it was attached to, went flying off the roof!!

Having said that, we are capable of far better. The 17th Jan event, while impressive in its own right, was still nothing out of the ordinary in an ordinary winter!

yes. as you say it was intense but intermittent. i'd be looking for a storm like the one we had on st stephens day in '96 or was it '97. ah i'm bad with dates. anyway whatever year it was the storm lasted for several hours and there was a gust of 80 mph recorded well inland, with Belmullet recording a gust close to 110 mph.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

yes. as you say it was intense but intermittent. i'd be looking for a storm like the one we had on st stephens day in '96 or was it '97. ah i'm bad with dates. anyway whatever year it was the storm lasted for several hours and there was a gust of 80 mph recorded well inland, with Belmullet recording a gust close to 110 mph.

I remember a particularly nasty storm on new years eve either in 2005 or 2006. I was living in Galway at the time and the winds were absolutely frightening. What I remember though was the thunder and hail triggering off car and house alarms all over the city which created a very eerie atmosphere, like a war was about to start or something! In a moment of weakness I was actually glad to see the sun come out later that day!

WolfeIRE

A July 2009 paper by McLean, de Freitas and Carter showed that global average temperatures followed the Southern Oscillation Index (El Nino/La Nina) with a 5-8 months lag. The graph below shows that when the SOI is shifted forward by 7 months the two plots change direction together (except when volcanic eruptions caused cooling).

The chart above shows a projection of temperatures to Feb 2011. The chances are that the present warm spell will end quite suddenly before the end of this year. Over the next few months the SOI will indicate whether or not the cooling will continue beyond Feb 2011. Evidence from studies on past climate and sunspot cycle related effects gives a strong indication that the cooling will continue.
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/08/is-the-cold-weather-coming/

owenc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am actually hoping that this winter will be nowhere near as chilly as the last, but will welcome some big falls of snow, which milder winters actually bring! Also, we are well overdue some proper big mama storms too so I look forward to being compensated this coming winter. Snow, storm or both is preferable to what we experienced in the winter of 2009/2010.

WHy would you want warmer, i want colder as that was lovely icy sunshine with snow showers mmm.. boring weather now at 13c...:rolleyes:

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I remember a particularly nasty storm on new years eve either in 2005 or 2006. I was living in Galway at the time and the winds were absolutely frightening. What I remember though was the thunder and hail triggering off car and house alarms all over the city which created a very eerie atmosphere, like a war was about to start or something! In a moment of weakness I was actually glad to see the sun come out later that day!

It was 2006 - now that's what I call weather!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbpaalw0-SI

up for anything

Am I the only oldie who remembers the storm of 2nd January, 1976? My sister had her baby down in Cork and my mother and I drove from the far side of Kilkenny down and back. Scary, scary drive on the way back. Driving rain, high winds and trees down all over the road and ESB/telegraph poles leaning over the road and sparking like meteor showers. Longest journey of our lives.

maquiladora

up for anything wrote: »

Am I the only oldie who remembers the storm of 2nd January, 1976? My sister had her baby down in Cork and my mother and I drove from the far side of Kilkenny down and back. Scary, scary drive on the way back. Driving rain, high winds and trees down all over the road and ESB/telegraph poles leaning over the road and sparking like meteor showers. Longest journey of our lives.

Little bit before my time. Here's the midnight chart for that night.

up for anything

Thanks Maq, but I don't have enough knowledge to understand the chart.