Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Kippure

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj


Dont want to dash peoples hopes but, Its a cross between Mt,bftp,s and joe:)

cammo 30

Kippure wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj


Dont want to dash peoples hopes but, Its a cross between Mt,bftp,s and joe:)

i cant see joe bastardi s forecast being accurate...ye southern europe might get a cold spell but i really think we in ireland and england are in for the coldest winter ever....loads of snow fall, even more than last year

M.T. Cranium

Don't take NYC at any odds, they will be around 20 C methinks.

Kippure

cammo 30 wrote: »

i cant see joe bastardi s forecast being accurate...ye southern europe might get a cold spell but i really think we in ireland and england are in for the coldest winter ever....loads of snow fall, even more than last year

I agree with you there, Im going with MT,s/BFTP,s forecast. With such alot of cold expected to pool in europe, a jet diving south, spells out lots of snow fall for ireland. We are in the clash zone this year.:D

jambofc

Kippure wrote: »

I agree with you there, Im going with MT,s/BFTP,s forecast. With such alot of cold expected to pool in europe, a jet diving south, spells out lots of snow fall for ireland. We are in the clash zone this year.:D

i really hope your right,the anticipation is starting to build(way to early might i add)and the lamppost watching will begin......
hope this year it's me posting all the pics of blizzards and snowmen and everyone else is envious of me :P

gally74

sneachta, sneachta, sneachta,

have to bury the pipe now....

cammo 30

just been on met eireann outlook for next week. could be seeing the white stuff on the east coast
Outlook

On Friday night, rain will spread over the much of Leinster, Munster and Connacht and will be heavy at times, especially in the south. It will be drier over much of Ulster. Lowest temperatures of 4 to 8 degrees. There'll be further rain on Saturday, mainly in the western half of the country. The rain will gradually clear westwards with drier and colder weather following from the east in the evening. Frost will develop in places on Saturday night. Sunday will be cold and bright with sunny spells and light northeasterly breezes. Showers will develop along east and northeast coasts on Sunday night, some falling as hail. It will be a cold night with a widespread sharp or severe frost. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be very cold days with daytime temperatures ranging from about 4 to 7 degrees. The nights will be very cold also with widespread sharp or severe frosts. Many areas will be dry with good sunshine. However showers will develop near north and east coasts. These will turn wintry as the week goes on, falling as sleet and possibly as snow on hills and mountains, especially at night.

patneve2

I'd define the 18z ECMWF charts as 'divine', they really show that there is great potential in the next few weeks...maybe someone will kindly post them up...

TheInquisitor

ORGASMIC

Not

gally74 wrote: »

sneachta, sneachta, sneachta,

have to bury the pipe now....

Yep, and time to start lagging and insulating everything that can possibly be insulated.

Inspect the route of your incoming water supply pipes to make sure they are well buried all along their route and any ground works during the year haven't made any part vulnerable.

Read up on how to unfreeze accessible frozen pipes without bursting them.

And stock up on the bottled water before there's a crisis. From a supply perspective, it matters not a jot whether or not your pipes are frozen if the water mains have burst, the council has cut off the supply, and the shops are suddenly cleared out of bottled water and you have to go for 25 miles to get water to drink. Not to mention for washing and flushing the toilet - get a few large containers and fill them now and store them away (where they wont freeze solid) to help cope with these necessities should a crisis arise.

Stocking up on logs for the fire, in case the central heating becomes non functional during a cold snap, might also be a good idea. Maybe get the chimney cleaned to be sure that more frequent than normal use of the fireplace wont trigger a chimney fire.

If you think you are one of those who think they might need snow chains (I'll not get into any arguements over whether snow chains might be practical or impractical, beneficial or not beneficial, legal or illegal, damaging or not damaging, waste of time in this country or not, etc., other than to admit I'm not a fan of them) now is the time to go looking for them as they are usually non stocked available only by order items. There's no point in slipping and sliding down to your local motor factors when the snow is falling to grab a set as you slide in through the door on your backside cos all you'll end up with is bruises.

Think about elderly relatives and neighbours and how you can help them to cope during any winter crisis.

We were all hideously unprepared last year. This year hopefully we will be better prepared. We know the potential of what might be coming.

cammo 30

so does this mean snow :cool:

WolfeIRE

The outlook is for dry, cold and a lot of settled weather in ireland next week. Any wintry showers will be confined to 500ft above sea level until midweek at least. The second half of next week will see a lot more showers and it will also be getting colder so snow will become more likely at lower levels.

How much shower activity remains unclear at this point.

redsteveireland

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The outlook is for dry, cold and a lot of settled weather in ireland next week. Any wintry showers will be confined to 500ft above sea level until midweek at least. The second half of next week will see a lot more showers and it will also be getting colder so snow will become more likely at lower levels.

How much shower activity remains unclear at this point.

You just miss out by 50feet, so near but yet so far.:D

thetonynator

Looks like my 150ft asl isnt quite going to make the cut!!!

gally74

Got to love this forum, the IMF have come in , pat rabbite just took the head off some ff er on prime time , and were all hoping for snow .......
It's the small things in life really

Mmcd

Here's Channel 4's documentary on last years cold snap. Is about Britain rather than us but is still a nice watch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW_rgBvph0Q

ninebeanrows

Some smashing runs out tonight but seen as i am beginning to get interested expect things to go bad quickly!:D

Redsunset

Mmcd wrote: »

Here's Channel 4's documentary on last years cold snap. Is about Britain rather than us but is still a nice watch!

Yeah i remember it was good that they acknowledged the stratospheric warming that reversed the polar winds.We had a temperature spike at the beginning of the month but that has now really cooled. Im wondering is this temp spike starting to have an effect as there is a lag of bout 3 to 4 weeks.

As you know it had a record spike last november and that really weakened the Polar vortex for the winter.





Thread here,
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056056522

nothing exciting happening with it so tis buried 4 pages back but im watching it constantly

WolfeIRE

redsteveireland wrote: »

You just miss out by 50feet, so near but yet so far.:D

going to add a new floor to the house steve.

saxo_vtr

Hey Guys,

Last year I became completely addicted to this forum but for some reason I've not posted in it, mostly because I feel I can not give any educated opinion on the weather!

Throughout the cold spell of 09/10 I practically spent all of my time on boards.ie & various weather sites due to my unhealthy love of the white stuff!

Since then I still check in every day as I've always enjoyed the craic & banter that goes on!

So a big thank you to all you great people who seem to be be much better at forecasting than our infamous met-eireann who seem to be afraid to mention the word snow when in the UK they will warn the public as soon as they forecast extremes of weather.

All around the country, non boards.ie users are totally unaware of the potential for extreme cold/snow this winter and once again will not be prepared for what might happen.

I feel sorry for the elderly and people in remote locations and the coward in met-eireann afraid to forecast snow after last years issue with closing schools just before the big freeze ended!

By the way, stock up on de-icer, scrapers & other winter chemicals in your local Halfords - all on 3for2 offer and if you are insured with axa you can get another 15% off.

Yes I am a store manager but I'm leaving next Friday so I'm not advertising just giving advice!

WolfeIRE

welcome saxo. thanks for joining in.

By the way, you're no relation to saxa are you?

saxa is mighty as well for clearing the path

saxo_vtr

WolfeIRE wrote: »

welcome saxo. thanks for joining in.

By the way, you're no relation to saxa are you?

saxa is mighty as well for clearing the path

Lol. I must have used 10 of them last year! And buckets of hot ashes which seemed like a great idea at the time, but when the snow and ice melted my driveway was not pretty!

gally74

gally74 wrote: »

sneachta, sneachta, sneachta,

have to bury the pipe now....

Yep! I've a job to bury the sil's pipe* tomorrow.

*been promisuing to do it since it froze last year, now I will HAVE to do it.

M.T. Cranium

Here's a link worth bookmarking:

CET daily values 1772-present

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

This would have to be pretty close to Ireland's daily mean temperatures much of the time.

I notice the severe winter of 1894-95 had a similar temperature pattern in November, 1894.

If you want to see a really wild ride look at January 1867.

snaps

A certain person in Coleraine must be frothing at the mouth!!!!

Redsunset

I continue to compare this years sea temp anomaly chart with this time last year and and apart from the clear transition from El Nino to La Nina there are very few differences.It's warmer around Greenland but the mediterranaean is still cold and the North sea is colder this time around.

So Take what you want from that.

NAO/AO

Now we mentioned recently that the NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) has stayed negative all through the year.
2010
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEPT OCT
-1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93

Just looking at the AO(Arctic Oscillation) index i see that only July went positive.So will this tread continue? Sure looks good though.

2010
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT
-2.587 -4.266 -0.432 -0.275 -0.919 -0.013 0.435 -0.117 -0.865 -0.467










Jet stream


Looking back to late December 2009 and january 2010 we can see Mr Jet went on holiday way south to give mediterranean regions mild winds and rain that resulted in some nasty storms. Will it do the same again?



Jan 5 2010




And currently

cammo 30

hey guys looks like met eireann is getting in a sweat over the coming week.....maybe its time to have the cameras ready.....snow on the way :rolleyes:

cammo 30

how do you post pics on this so when it snows and i have some pics or a video i can put em up :cool:

WolfeIRE

great post red.

Quick one, has the jet stream been showing much signs of staying south and/or is showing any signs of losing its heat these last few months, in comparison to what you can remember from previous years?

Any shift of the gulf stream would massively increase our chances of any NE/E cold being sustained over the british isles.

thetonynator

cammo 30 wrote: »

how do you post pics on this so when it snows and i have some pics or a video i can put em up :cool:

Add them as an attachment (the paper clip symbol at the top when writing a post) and wrap image tags around it ( the picture symbol at the top ).

Or you can upload them to an image hosting site and link them on here.