Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Kippure

The same synopitic pressure chart patterns as last year have already started to show up in the latest runs GFS ECM etc.

It looks like a complete copy as last year. When then the first cold spell develops,( me thinks last week of october) we wont be able to see past 84 hours as the models dont know what cold is.

leahyl

Hey guys - keeping an eye on this thread! Hoping for another snowfest this year!;)

Wild Bill

In case ye doubt it I'm as keen on cold snowy winters as anyone; it's just I remember the winters of the late 70s and early 80s when we thought we were heading to a new Ice Age - instead we got nearly a quarter of a century without a real winter!

One bitten twice shy I guess.

Id love a good snowfest too Leahyl

I remember you from last winters Snowfest on boards. You have a lovely childlike delight in snow, that is very lovely and charming
So even ifs its only for a day or snow, I hope Cork gets lots of snow for you.

Redsunset

While not being his winter forecast.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Joe b has this to say,


its fascinating to see what using the analog gives us for the winter and then applying the computer forecast gives us. Put it this way... for large parts of Europe, another year where the Global warming crowd is going to take a beating from the APPEARANCE of the weather is on the way!

The three years that stick out like a sore thumb are 1950-1951,1955-1956 and 1995-1996 for europe.

The main idea I have out for the winter is that there will be large scale chill again.

I believe that this is a colder than normal winter for a large part of europe, but I am torn as to where right now. I am going to research it and come up with the answer.

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

In case ye doubt it I'm as keen on cold snowy winters as anyone; it's just I remember the winters of the late 70s and early 80s when we thought we were heading to a new Ice Age - instead we got nearly a quarter of a century without a real winter!

One bitten twice shy I guess.

well at least you got to see such epic winters. the closest some of us have got was the Christmas period of 2,000, but from reading the post of older forum members it wasn't a patch on the period you mention. I would love to wake up one morning, open the curtains, and see a foot of snow outside!

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

well at least you got to see such epic winters. the closest some of us have got was the Christmas period of 2,000, but from reading the post of older forum members it wasn't a patch on the period you mention. I would love to wake up one morning, open the curtains, and see a foot of snow outside!

That'll never happen because we'll all have stayed up the previous night staring out the window pressing f5 until we got snow . . .:):P

Wild Bill

Yeah, it was a great time - to be young and in love in a time of snow!

(The downside is it makes me somewhat older than most of ye ).

But to remind you of last winter this was taken near Newtownmountkennedy on the afternoon of 7 January last.......

dexter647

Lovely pic:)... roll on more of the same this winter

Min

Last winter was misery, I mean, I don't mind it being cold but Spring was late and it cost me thousands having to buy extra feed for my animals.

It isn't great getting a blizzard at the end of March when one would like to be letting cows out to graze but there was no grass as it was all frost burnt.

The ice was hardship, dangerous having to work outside and trying to mind one's step, frozen pipes, cattle looking for water but you have none as - 16C temperatures have everything in a deep freeze, burst pipes, cracked water troughs, the milking parlour was frozen and took hours to defrost the milking equipment so we could have some milk for our tea as the roads were unusable.

OK, storms with 100mph gusts on an exposed hill are no fun either as you worry if your sheds will survive.... :pac:

I just hope we have a shorter winter....but I doubt it.

maquiladora

Britain 'in for another big freeze winter'

Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions said the country should prepare itself for "back-to-back" harsh winters.

Last winter was the coldest for 31 years, with the average UK-wide temperature from 1 December to 24 February being only 34.7F (1.5C), compared to the long-term average of 38.6F (3.7C).

The mercury plunged as low as -8.1F (-22.3C) in Altnaharra, Scotland, while Benson, Oxon, recorded 10.8F (-11.8C).

The Met Office had predicted there was only a one-in-seven chance of a cold winter, which was caused by strong anti-cyclonic activity bringing persistent icy winds off the continent, and keeping milder Atlantic breezes at bay.

That statement came after an overly-optimistic forecast for summer 2009, which rather rashly predicted that Britain was "odds-on for a barbecue summer".

While it was slightly warmer than average it turned out to be another damp affair and the Met Office was roundly criticised.

The combination of the two predictions led it to drop public announcements of its seasonal forecasting service, which it has relegated to its research department.

However, Positive Weather Solutions, which claims to have correctly forecast the 2009 washout summer and last winter's plunging temperatures, has continued to offer long-range forecasts.

Mr Powell said: "It is very unusual to have two very harsh winters back-to-back, so most people would have expected a tamer and milder winter this year.

"But this winter will be similar to last winter, although not quite as harsh. We could well see temperatures as cold as last winter, albeit on a less-sustained level.

"We expect periods of disruptive snowfall similar to the snow we saw last winter, although periods of harsh weather will be broken up by milder conditions.

"A White Christmas is a distinct possibility for higher ground in the east, north-east and Scotland and also possibly higher ground in the west.

"And with a combination of snow, ice and bitterly-cold temperatures, we could well see another ‘white-out’ scenario as some areas of the country grind to a halt.

"School closures are very likely, as is disruption on the roads and the possibility people may be stranded in their cars if there are heavy snowfalls or if roads are not fully gritted.

"Local authorities need to be warned that they will have to handle another very cold winter."

According to its website, PWS bases its forecasts on "a central computer program which searches a partitioned slice of historical data, looking for patterns and trends within it".

They are not always right. In mid-July, PWS predicted: "August for all of the UK will be dry and warm." The month turned out to be dull, wet and the coolest since 1993.

Met Office has vastly greater computational power than small-scale outfits, access to more data and more highly-trained meteorologists.

But Michael Lawrence, a Met Office forecaster, explained that even with such resources, long-term prediction was a notoriously difficult business.

He said that while the Met Office always quantified the probability of long-term weather scenarios, others were not so rigorous.

"What these forecasters do is pit themselves in opposition to what we say and if they get it right they get a lot of publicity," he lamented.

If they got it wrong "nobody knows who they are" so it did not matter, he added.

The Met Office now limits its public predictions to 30 days.

It is predicting an "unsettled period" for October, with mild, wet and windy weather giving way mid-month to calmer conditions and near-normal temperatures - which will mean frosts for parts of the country - for the remainder.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8039977/Britain-in-for-another-big-freeze-winter.html

I'm not sure about these 'Positive Weather Solutions' guys. Only time will tell!

Elmo5

another paper carrying same story:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1317484/Forecasters-predict-white-winters.html

Not

Just some food for thought - in the current financial climate, I seriously wonder if there was a harsh winter like the last one would local authorites be able to afford to grit roads, fix loads of burst water mains, etc ?

Mmcd

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8039977/Britain-in-for-another-big-freeze-winter.html

I'm not sure about these 'Positive Weather Solutions' guys. Only time will tell!

There was a counter article where a man from the met office was asked about this and he said that PWS just go against the met office for every decision and only get publicity when they're right as opposed to the met office where it's nearly the opposite.

Not

Not wrote: »

Just some food for thought - in the current financial climate, I seriously wonder if there was a harsh winter like the last one would local authorites be able to afford to grit roads, fix loads of burst water mains, etc ?

With a bit of luck, they still have large stockpiles of grit from last year!
ISTR that they placed large urgent orders for it and it arrived just after the worst of the freeze.

lord lucan

Deleted User wrote: »

With a bit of luck, they still have large stockpiles of grit from last year!
ISTR that they placed large urgent orders for it and it arrived just after the worst of the freeze.

Problem is if we get sustained snow will the councils be able to afford the overtime that would be needed to keep the lads out gritting the roads? I'm sure they've budgeted based on 'average' winters,a sustained period of severe snow and ice could see either no gritting or just the main arteries getting a gritting.

Deep Easterly

All main and secondary roads around Co Galway are falling to bits and in a generally atrocious state. My car is wrecked because of the awful state of the roads yet I am expected to pay my 'road tax' for using them. :mad: No sign of the pen pushing, penny pinching Co. Council doing anything about it either. At this rate, we won't need salt for the roads this coming winter should we get an icy spell, more than enough pot holes and generally cragginess on the them to stop to car sliding into a ditch should it hit a slippy spot. :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

With a bit of luck, they still have large stockpiles of grit from last year!
ISTR that they placed large urgent orders for it and it arrived just after the worst of the freeze.

no additional supplies in place in clare the council said last week. Will be no different anywhere else.

anyway, they wouldn't have the budget to bring in additional supplies. Would be an interesting one for a journalist to throw at the dept of transport or dept of environment to see if additional supplies/funds allocated for this winter.

rc28

WolfeIRE wrote: »

no additional supplies in place in clare the council said last week. Will be no different anywhere else.

anyway, they wouldn't have the budget to bring in additional supplies. Would be an interesting one for a journalist to throw at the dept of transport or dept of environment to see if additional supplies/funds allocated for this winter.

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/oct/03/nra-invests-8m-to-prepare-for-another-possible-big/

65 new snow ploughs have been purchased along with 30 new salt/grit spreaders. I'm surprised they have any cash at all to do this!!

Tabnabs

rc28

rc28 wrote: »

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/oct/03/nra-invests-8m-to-prepare-for-another-possible-big/

65 new snow ploughs have been purchased along with 30 new salt/grit spreaders. I'm surprised they have any cash at all to do this!!

They'll soon get that back in reduced spending clearing up after icy motorway pile ups.

isle of man

rc28 wrote: »

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/oct/03/nra-invests-8m-to-prepare-for-another-possible-big/

65 new snow ploughs have been purchased along with 30 new salt/grit spreaders. I'm surprised they have any cash at all to do this!!

be a bit of blow of cash if theres no snow or ice:cool:

derekon

isle of man wrote: »

be a bit of blow of cash if theres no snow or ice:cool:

It won't be , there will be plenty of snow and ice this year.
Oh ye posters of little faith...:D

Derek

eskimocat

isle of man wrote: »

be a bit of blow of cash if theres no snow or ice:cool:

Uh oh, no talking down the marvellous winter/Christmas of snow that is coming our way .... Flat out planning snowmen scenes, sleigh rides, etc,..... Quick someone build a ramp!!

isle of man

eskimocat wrote: »

Uh oh, no talking down the marvellous winter/Christmas of snow that is coming our way .... Flat out planning snowmen scenes, sleigh rides, etc,..... Quick someone build a ramp!!

but if i talk it down when it hits, i can be extra excited than normal:D.
Im allready on the look out for car bonnet/sledge mk 2 for this year:cool:

Redsunset

Im expecting another belt of this,so dare.:D

Looking toward wicklow mountains outside home.





And rear of home.

up for anything

On the radio this morning they were reporting that the crowd (I tried committing the name to memory but the memory network is down) who forecast last Winter's big freeze and the wet Summer in the Uk are predicting the same for this winter down to -16 degrees. Brrrrrrrrr

*blushing*

WolfeIRE

up for anything wrote: »

On the radio this morning they were reporting that the crowd (I tried committing the name to memory but the memory network is down)

welsh-based Positive Weather Solutions.

Mmcd

up for anything wrote: »

On the radio this morning they were reporting that the crowd (I tried committing the name to memory but the memory network is down) who forecast last Winter's big freeze and the wet Summer in the Uk are predicting the same for this winter down to -16 degrees. Brrrrrrrrr

......illaint!

maquiladora

Meanwhile..... :rolleyes:

Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”

In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.

Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.

Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.

http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html

:rolleyes:

up for anything

Mmcd wrote: »

......illaint!

......ollocks! I like them broiled.

I can't afford to heat the house now, let alone during weather like that.

Aiel

Im genuinely worried for the many people who will not be able to afford to heat their homes this winter.I know you can get by with extra blankets,warm liquids etc but you do need warm air in your home.For older people especially it could be really bad.My elderely neighbour couldnt go outside her door for nearly 2 weeks last winter,i did her shopping for her and ran other errands too.
I know im putting a dampner on it for all ye kids getting excited at the upcoming super dooper blizzards coming on our way,my appologies:).I actually love snow too:).

nacho libre

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”



yet they can tell it's going to be the coldest winter in 1, 000 year for mother Russia

Not

rc28 wrote: »

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/oct/03/nra-invests-8m-to-prepare-for-another-possible-big/

65 new snow ploughs have been purchased along with 30 new salt/grit spreaders. I'm surprised they have any cash at all to do this!!

The NRA must be the only ones with plenty of cash, they must be making a pile from road tolling ? So at least there's a good chance the national routes will kept going if things get bad.

Not

WolfeIRE wrote: »

no additional supplies in place in clare the council said last week. Will be no different anywhere else.

anyway, they wouldn't have the budget to bring in additional supplies. Would be an interesting one for a journalist to throw at the dept of transport or dept of environment to see if additional supplies/funds allocated for this winter.

Oh Oh....

seamus

I've kind of missed the guaranteed snow that we used to get as a kid. There was a 10-year period there where some winters went without any snowfall at sea level or there was only a crappy day or two of it.

I'm glad I've spruced up the mountain bike this year. If this year is to be worse than last year, it'll be the only way to get around the roads!

maquiladora

Paging Redsunset & anyway else who might know...

Monthly NAO since records began :

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Every month in 2010 so far has been negative NAO.

This has never happened since records began, until this year.

I wonder what, if any, impact this will have on our winter?

forkassed

http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

Iancar29

In the mirror 2day they hav the section about Positive Weather Solutions saying that ireland we hav a rerun of last year's winter.
The snow picture for it made me remember opening the paper on new years day! Ha
:rolleyes:

delw

nacho libre wrote: »

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”



yet they can tell it's going to be the coldest winter in 1, 000 year for mother Russia

forkassed wrote: »

http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

i think nachos post says it all

maquiladora

Wild Bill

Last winter started early and lasted long - this was mid-afternoon near Rochfortbridge, County Westmeath on 22nd December last (2009). Taken 17 days before the one in Newtown.

It was taken at 3.25pm - note the snow melted by the sun at midday is already freezing.

Wild Bill

Agh!!! :eek:

You got in before I added this: 1st April 2010 (3.30pm) at Ticknock, County Dublin. Still snowing......:D

Kippure

4th Jan Kilikee road to glencree.

[IMG][/img]

WolfeIRE

January 07 2010, West Clare

Iancar29

ALL THIS TALK AND PICTURES OF WINTER IS GETTING ME HYPED UP! haha WOO! COME ON WINTER 2010-11 !

snowstreams

Glencree, wicklow last January.

BEASTERLY

30th March 2010: Near Mount Leinster, 400m approx.

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/358152/130014.JPG



Sorry about the previous slightly big image:pac:

redsteveireland

@Beasterly- you might want to resize that badboy, I haven't bought my 60"widescreen monitor yet....:D

Wild Bill

Lads! This could be the thread to document winter 2009/2010 (unless some mod-type person does the split-work).

But an appeal: could you give the location, date and time of your pics so we can build a chronological/geographical record?


:mad: :eek: :cool::pac: :P