July 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Posting this quite early, but no rush for entries ... the deadline as always is the end of the first day of the month (Thursday 1 July at 2359h) with a penalty applying to entries on the 2nd.

The first five questions are the same as in other months:

(1) mean temp deg C for the five stations (1961-90 avg is 15.0)

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations

and the bonus

(6) How much rain (mms) will fall at Mullingar on the 15th, St Swithin's Day?

template (mean,max,min,rain,sun,mms)

Enter soon and often. :cool:

dasa29

mean 15c,max 27c,min 6c,rain 85%,sun 125%,mms 5mm.

pauldry

mean 14.9c,max 26.1c,min 5.2c,rain 125%,sun 110%,mms 7.3mm.

200motels

Mean 15.7C Max 29.8C Min 7.1C Rain 145% Sun 95% Mms 1mm

jd

Mean 15.2C Max 28.8C Min 6.1C Rain 105% Sun 115% Mms 0mm

talkabout

mean 16c,max 31c,min 4c,rain 90%,sun 115%,mms 2mm

JamBur

Mean 15.3C Max 28.2C Min 7.1C Rain 101% Sun 95% Mms 4mm

WolfeIRE

16c
29c
5.5c
95%
110%

thetonynator

Mean: 15.2, Max 25.5, Min 5.9, Rain 110%, Sun 105%, Mms 0.5

Deep Easterly

Another drought ridden month coming up with little in the way of any interesting weather. Pretty much like every month this year so far.

16.2c, 27.1c,4.3 49%,130,3.1

M.T. Cranium

16.5, 27.3, 4.8, 97%, 108%, nil

Sorry St Swithin

Note, yours truly on the road much of 30 June and 1 July, en route to holidays, not expecting to be totally absent from the internet, but may not be able to post the monthly table of your entries until around the 3rd or 4th.

Will have to save up for a trip to Ireland in some future year, not in the cards for 2010 sadly.

hellboy99

15.8, 27.3, 5, 88%, 109%, 0

Strasser

15.8,24.5,2.3,139%,90%,5

Lumi

mean 16.1, max 29.7, min 6.5, rain 65%, sun 122%, 2mms

nacho libre

mean 16.2.c, max 27.6c, min 5.3c, rain 90%, sun 125%, 10mm.

mickger844posts

15.5c, 28.7c, 6.1c,95%, 105%,0

SeaFields

17.1c, 25.5c, 7.4c, 75%, 110%, 0.0mm

kindredspirit

16.7°C, 29.1°C, 7.0°C, 95%, 100%, 6.0mm.

Su Campu

16.9,28.3,5.5,100,100,1.8

Rebelbrowser

mean 14.8c,max 27.2c,min 6.8c,rain 101%,sun 82%,mms 0mm.

John mac

14.3,27.2,4.1,120,110,1.2

Danno

(1) mean temp deg C for the five stations (1961-90 avg is 15.0) 15.7c

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station 24.6c

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station 7.9c

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations 135%

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations 85%

(6) How much rain (mms) will fall at Mullingar on the 15th, St Swithin's Day? 11.3mm

Joe Public

(15.3,25.9,6.9,120%,90%,3mm)

DOCARCH

mean 15.2c, max 26.9c, min 7.8c, rain 92%, sun 105%, mms 2.6mm.

Speak Now

15.4,24.4,6.2,110,98,0

Redsunset

mean 16,max 25,min 7,rain 130%,sun 125%, mms 15

nilhg

(15.6,24.9,7.8,105,101,2.5)

waterways

17.0, 27.7, 6.8, 145, 103, 18.3

Deep Easterly

Just having a gawk there at monthly mean sea level pressure stats for July for met station Claremorris. Since 1950, there has been a very slight linear fall in m.s.l.p for the month during the 59 year period up to 2009.

Chart showing monthly mean sea level pressure (HPa) for the station during the month of July for the period 1950 to 2009



As can be seen, the pressure values for July 2007/2008 & 2009 were much below average and standing outside the general norm.

In fact, looking at mean values for each 3 year period since 1950, July 07/08/09 had the lowest m.s.l.p value for July since 1950, reflecting just how unsettled the last 3 July's were!



The average pressure value of the last 3 Julys equated to 1009.67 HPa, which is almost 7mb below the 61-90 norm for the station!

Just to contrast, the highest 3 year average value for July at Claremorris was 1019.5mb, which covered the years 82/83/84.

Will July 2010 break the current run of below average pressure values?


We'll see!



Data Source: http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere

M.T. Cranium

Interesting stats there, DE, I thought the past three summers were a bit cyclonic. Well, I found an hour to get this table together, may the best man (or woman) win ... or perhaps it will be me instead.

Forecaster ........ Mean (C) ..... Max .... Min .... Rain% ... Sun% .... Mull15
____________________________________________________________

SeaFields ............... 17.1 ..... 25.5 ..... 7.4 ..... 075 ..... 110 ..... 00.0
waterways ............. 17.0 ..... 27.7 ..... 6.8 ..... 145 ..... 103 ..... 18.3
Su Campu .............. 16.9 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.5 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 01.8
kindredspirit ........... 16.7 ..... 29.1 ..... 7.0 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 06.0
M.T. Cranium .......... 16.5 ..... 27.3 ..... 4.8 ..... 097 ..... 108 ..... 00.0
Deep Easterly ......... 16.2 ..... 27.1 ..... 4.3 ..... 049 ..... 130 ..... 03.1
nacho libre ............. 16.2 ..... 27.6 ..... 5.3 ..... 090 ..... 125 ..... 10.0
Fionagus ................ 16.1 ..... 29.7 ..... 6.5 ..... 065 ..... 122 ..... 02.0
WolfeIRE ................ 16.0 ..... 29.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 095 ..... 110 .....
talkabout ............... 16.0 ..... 31.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 090 ..... 115 ..... 02.0
redsunset .............. 16.0 ..... 25.0 ..... 7.0 ..... 130 ..... 125 ..... 15.0
hellboy99 ............... 15.8 ..... 27.3 ..... 5.0 ..... 088 ..... 109 ..... 00.0
Strasser ................ 15.8 ..... 24.5 ..... 2.3 ..... 139 ..... 090 ..... 05.0
200motels .............. 15.7 ..... 29.8 ..... 7.1 ..... 145 ..... 095 ..... 01.0

Con Sensus ............ 15.7 ..... 27.2 ..... 6.1 ..... 101 ..... 105 .... 02.5

Danno ................... 15.7 ..... 24.6 ..... 7.9 ..... 135 ..... 085 ..... 11.3
nilhg ..................... 15.6 ..... 24.9 ..... 7.8 ..... 105 ..... 101 ..... 02.5
mickger844posts ..... 15.5 ..... 28.7 ..... 6.1 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 00.0
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 15.4 ..... 24.4 ..... 6.2 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 00.0
JamBur .................. 15.3 ..... 28.2 ..... 7.1 ..... 101 ..... 095 ..... 04.0
Joe Public .............. 15.3 ..... 25.9 ..... 6.9 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 03.0
jd ......................... 15.2 ..... 28.8 ..... 6.1 ..... 105 ..... 115 ..... 00.0
thetonynator .......... 15.2 ..... 25.5 ..... 5.9 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... 00.5
DOCARCH ............... 15.2 ..... 26.9 ..... 7.8 ..... 092 ..... 105 ..... 02.6
Dasa29 .................. 15.0 ..... 27.0 ..... 6.0 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 05.0
pauldry .................. 14.9 ..... 26.1 ..... 5.2 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... 07.3
Rebelbrowser .......... 14.8 ..... 27.2 ..... 6.8 ..... 101 ..... 082 ..... 00.0
John mac ............... 14.3 ..... 27.2 ..... 4.1 ..... 120 ..... 110 ..... 01.2

Looks like the group consensus is just slightly sunnier, warmer than average by fractions, with average rainfall. There's quite a range for rainfall on the 15th, about one third forecast no rain, three have more than 10 mms. WolfeIRE, you can add a prediction for that if you wish, by the 4th (and welcome back) ... welcome to JamBur on a first effort here, and thanks everyone for your continual appearances.

WolfeIRE

Thanks MT. Sorry for missing that last question. Thanks for putting table together too. Appreciate it.

My prediction is a big fat '0' for St Swithin's Day. Previous 2 have been washouts so third time lucky.