July 2010 Boards forecast contest

dubes

I think its going to rain tomoro!

dubes

My forecast is: 15.7 ..... 27.2 ..... 6.1 ..... 101 ..... 105 .... 02.5

M.T. Cranium

Con Sensus, not the worst guy to follow in this bunch.

Okay, after the first seven days, trends are:

mean temp 15.5 C

rainfall 110% (varies considerably so far, watch for this to soar)

sunshine 112% (about to take a hit)

Monthly rainfall will be almost guaranteed to exceed 100% after two days of steady and at times heavy rainfall.

Deep Easterly

Met eireann data not updated for yesterday but up to the 9th, Irish Mean Temperature July on 15.4c, which is just under a degree above normal for the period.


Chart graphing mean daily max temp for July for Pheonix Park & Birr (based the 61-90 period) and Galway (based on 64-95 period)



Statistically speaking, the warmest day of the year occurs on the 14th July in Galway, while the both Birr and Dublin will have there warmest day on the 29th! Averaged out between east. middle and west, Ireland warmest days of the year tend to happen between the 20th and 25th of July!

All based on stats of course, that does not mean the reality will be the same!



Daily I.M.T maxima for the year 2010 up to the 9th July:



from winter to summer....




Data source: Met Eireann

thetonynator

I think the mercy rule will have to be brought in for rainfall!!!

Deep Easterly

Not much happened across the country yesterday weatherwise it seems:



:cool:

Joe Public

And nothing at all happened on Saturday. I'm interested to know how much rain fell at the various stations on Saturday but no "yesterday's weather" appeared on met.ie for Sat or Sun.

Deep Easterly

Joe Public wrote: »

And nothing at all happened on Saturday. I'm interested to know how much rain fell at the various stations on Saturday but no "yesterday's weather" appeared on met.ie for Sat or Sun.

Ogimet give's an idea but will differ to met eireann's data due to the 'UTC' time use (I've never really understood the point of UTC).

M.T. Cranium

Re mercy rule on rainfall -- perhaps if I take every forecast as being mms instead of percentage, we'll get some scores.

It would be an injustice if it didn't rain in Mullingar on the 15th, I suppose. Quite odd how the weather changed right on the calendar change.

pauldry

Strange indeed MT - its as if the weather knew "oh its July in Ireland - turn on the taps" Still lets hope for an improvement in the final third.

Good idea on the rain. Think I need a mercy rule on all my predictions. Is this possible?

Joe Public

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ogimet give's an idea but will differ to met eireann's data due to the 'UTC' time use (I've never really understood the point of UTC).

Thanks DE, I see the NW got the most rain on Saturday - well nearly Saturday.

Deep Easterly

Met data updated now (thank Christ) so latest mean figure on 15.2c.

Roughly put together chart graphing mean trend for the month up to the 12th, with values for July 2009 thrown in for comparison:



basically following a similar pattern to July last year so far.


Stats C/O Met Eireann

pauldry

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Met data updated now (thank Christ) so latest mean figure on 15.2c.

Roughly put together chart graphing mean trend for the month up to the 12th, with values for July 2009 thrown in for comparison:



basically following a similar pattern to July last year so far.


Stats C/O Met Eireann

Jayziz !! :eek: So its actually a worse July temperature wise than last year.
Still at least its not as wet :rolleyes::o:(

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Jayziz !! :eek: So its actually a worse July temperature wise than last year.
Still at least its not as wet :rolleyes::o:(

yet . . . up to 60mm forecast today and tomorrow . . .:(:mad::mad::mad:

pauldry

Can I change my rainfall prediction to 5000% of normal:p

M.T. Cranium

After 14 days, the elements have taken quite a turn ...

rainfall now at 245% of normal

sunshine has fallen to 82% of normal

IMT is sitting at 15.3 C

some places had 5-6 times the normal rainfall in the past seven days (including Claremorris).

Today won't change much of the above.

So, the main questions now seem to be, how much more rain will fall, since normal to the end of the month will leave us at about 170% (even none will leave things at 120%), and, will sunshine recover or is it going to settle in at this 75-85 per cent outcome? Temperatures seem rather steady and there are few indications of anything vastly different before month's end.

pauldry

certainly i can say that the area around ballymote in Sligo has seen 50mm of rain in the last 2 days. We have had lots here in Sligo town (29mm in the 2 days so far) but there its been bucketing every time I drive through and its flooded.

Temperatures should be around the same as they are at present for rest of month.

Sunshine will prob improve slightly more especially in the East and South.

Is it raining much in Mullingar today for the Swithins day rain massacre?

M.T. Cranium

I'm sure they've had 5 or more mms already and may get a pile more before midnight. :eek:

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm sure they've had 5 or more mms already and may get a pile more before midnight. :eek:

I'm heading to Mullingar to put an umbrella over the weather station:D

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After 14 days, the elements have taken quite a turn ...

rainfall now at 245% of normal

sunshine has fallen to 82% of normal

IMT is sitting at 15.3 C

some places had 5-6 times the normal rainfall in the past seven days (including Claremorris).

Today won't change much of the above.

So, the main questions now seem to be, how much more rain will fall, since normal to the end of the month will leave us at about 170% (even none will leave things at 120%), and, will sunshine recover or is it going to settle in at this 75-85 per cent outcome? Temperatures seem rather steady and there are few indications of anything vastly different before month's end.

Even if Claremorris does not record any more rain til month's end, it will still have gained 200% of its normal rainfall; but as you say, as a countrywide whole, finishing % values likely to be over 150%.

M.T. Cranium

The rainfall on the 15th at Mullingar was 23.7 mms ... just about an inch ... and this was foreseen best by Waterways, followed by Redsunset, Danno and Nacho Libre. So with it being that heavy, is it forty days, or forty years?

Su Campu

Some places are near 6 times the average rainfall for the past 7 days! :eek:

kindredspirit

Joe Public wrote: »

I'm heading to Mullingar to put an umbrella over the weather station:D

Brilliant!

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Some places are near 6 times the average rainfall for the past 7 days! :eek:

According to those maps I got 90mm/100mm+ in the last 7 days which is certanly not the case, although given the showery nature of the rainfall last week I suppose other areas within the locality did. Would I be wrong in saying that those contours represent the linear difference of accumulations between the various met stations rather than based on real figures?

M.T. Cranium

Sure, those maps have to be smoothed from the station data, reality in summer rainfall is always more complex than other seasons when a smoothed map will probably give intermediate points smaller errors.

From what I recall radar-watching, the gradient southeast from Claremorris was probably sharper than the map depiction. Cells were often approaching from the east so the axis of higher rainfall would run east-west through there. Reports on the forum speak of very heavy rain around Westport also.

Meanwhile, if you're wondering how many points you scored for Mullingar, the way I propose to score is to give 10,9,8,7 to the top four and then six to the next two, five etc etc and anyone who predicted any rain gets at least one, those of us (ahem) who went zero get zero for our optimism.

Scoring for the monthly rainfall will definitely run off the "adjusted scoring rules" as laid out in January. Even the highest prediction there has only a slight chance of scoring any points by the regular method.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

From what I recall radar-watching, the gradient southeast from Claremorris was probably sharper than the map depiction. Cells were often approaching from the east so the axis of higher rainfall would run east-west through there. Reports on the forum speak of very heavy rain around Westport also.

Yes, I think areas west of Claremorris would have recorded even higher totals locally than the met station over the last 7 days. Either way, I think Co. Mayo as a whole has bourn the brunt of the weather so for this month by a long shot.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Just having a gawk there at monthly mean sea level pressure stats for July for met station Claremorris. Since 1950, there has been a very slight linear fall in m.s.l.p for the month during the 59 year period up to 2009.

As can be seen, the pressure values for July 2007/2008 & 2009 were much below average and standing outside the general norm.

In fact, looking at mean values for each 3 year period since 1950, July 07/08/09 had the lowest m.s.l.p value for July since 1950, reflecting just how unsettled the last 3 July's were!

The average pressure value of the last 3 Julys equated to 1009.67 HPa, which is almost 7mb below the 61-90 norm for the station!

Just to contrast, the highest 3 year average value for July at Claremorris was 1019.5mb, which covered the years 82/83/84.

Will July 2010 break the current run of below average pressure values?


We'll see!



Data Source: http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere

The above was an earlier post discussing the monthly average pressure values for July at Claremorris Met station since 1950.

So far, the halfway mark of the month, the 3 year run of of below average pressure values at the station for the month of July has not beem broken. July's mean sea level pressure so far standing at 1009.2 hPa, pretty similar to the last 3 Julys:



(Chart based on 0000 UTC values)

Can the 2nd half of July break the trend?

Watch dis space..

Deep Easterly

Just a quick update on how the I.M.T is doing. Up to midnight 17th, value standing on 15.2c, which is close to or very slightly above the 61-90 norm for the first 17 days of the month.

Trend graph:




Graph showing mean rainfall total across the the I.M.T zone:



as the graph shows, the period 1st to 17th July is wetter this year than for the same period last year!! :eek:
Average daily fall: 2009-4.7mm / 2010-5.7mm.

With more rain forecast over the next couple of days, it is safe to say that July 2010 will be the the 4th consecutive wet July in Ireland.


Data C/O Met Eireann

pauldry

Thanks for all that DE

My rainfall in Sligo is at 131mm. The temperature is quite high too because we are having some very mild nights. 15.8c at the moment and its 1:26am. Sunshine is in the low range though and indeed it will go down as our 4th poor July in a row.

On an alternative note I was reading a weather book today showing that all the times Britain has had a dry dry April in the past 100 years it has had a wet Summer, except in 1984. I will find more details out on this for tomorrow and share them with ye all.:cool:

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

On an alternative note I was reading a weather book today showing that all the times Britain has had a dry dry April in the past 100 years it has had a wet Summer, except in 1984. I will find more details out on this for tomorrow and share them with ye all.:cool:

Sounds interesting!