Psychic Octopus

recedite

This Octopus called Paul has an impressive record of predicting the outcome of soccer matches correctly;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10420131.stm

What do people here think about it, can animals have that kind of ability?
The statistics are impressive; 80% success rate is a lot better than random chance.

Riamfada

Well firstly I hope Germany kick England out of the World Cup and secondly a pschyic octopus has got to be the stupidest thing I have ever heard .... now psyhic people .... oh wait.

Had that Octopus been around to advise Hitler alot of lives may have been saved.

maccored

in the last world cup, work had a world cup pools thing going and one person predicted the winner of every game. He wasnt psychic though - just lucky.

Riamfada

maccored wrote: »

in the last world cup, work had a world cup pools thing going and one person predicted the winner of every game. He wasnt psychic though - just lucky.

Did you work in an aquarium?

maccored

Grimes wrote: »

Did you work in an aquarium?

No. You obviously dont work as a comedian.

Riamfada

maccored wrote: »

No. You obviously dont work as a comedian.

No I have a real job .. im a full time paranormal investigator

maccored

you forgot 'professional' - it always sounds better with 'professional'.

Riamfada

maccored wrote: »

you forgot 'professional' - it always sounds better with 'professional'.

haha thanks

recedite

Well, I'm off down to the bookies now to collect my winnings
Paul has so far correctly predicted all of Germany's results in South Africa, and whats more he (it) predicted an emphatic victory agaist England, by swimming straight into the jar without any hesitation.
Never underestimate an octopus. :pac:

0verblood

Grimes wrote: »

No I have a real job .. im a full time paranormal investigator

I hope you're being sarcastic. Or are you for real?

Riamfada

0verblood wrote: »

I hope you're being sarcastic. Or are you for real?

Seriously... Your asking that? Of course I'm being sarcastic. There is no such things as ghosts.

maccored

oh yeah - try and cover it up . we all know you believe in teh ghosties.

Swampy

The Octopus now has a 100% success rate. Adios Germany.

maccored

he has a 50/50 chance of guessing correctly each time so the odds arent exactly that weird.

recedite

Swampy wrote: »

The Octopus now has a 100% success rate. Adios Germany.

Germany have still to play Uruguay for 3rd place, so one more chance to make money. I have been reinvesting 75% of the winnings since the England game, hitting the jackpot again and again.:) with Argentina and Spain. Pity I missed out on the Australia and Serbia predictions. He now has his own wikipedia page;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus

Makes me curious...seeing as the octopus is known to be very intelligent, capable of learning and using tools etc, could this one be acting as some sort of conduit or intermediary to somebody or something in the spirit world?

maccored

the first thing that would honestly spring to mind would be even if ghosts did exist, why should one be able to see the future? Its making a choice between one object and another - nothing remarkable there. If you read that news article, you'll see they only mentioned two instances (up till then) that the octopus was right. They never mentioned how long he's been guessing about anything, but they did mention 2008 - so you can assume he's had a fair few guesses at a fair things over the past two years - but they can only mention two things he got right and the obligitarory statistic percentage.

Or make that three. No odds - its not that spectatular. if he were to guess the correct result that a team might ever play and win or within a sizeable time frame then maybe, but the chances of being right three times in a row in an undetermined time frame isnt any more than chance and to be honest, it irks me sometimes to see how the paranormal community can let itself be suckered into promoting whats basically an internet meme.

recedite

maccored wrote: »

but they can only mention two things he got right and the obligitarory statistic percentage.

Or make that three.

No, make that five in a row, or 100% right in this years World Cup. That article I linked to originally is now out of date!

maccored

i find that an octopus can choose between two objects interesting - that I admit. Its not a very rare thing - otherwise dolphins would be out of a job - but its also not too rare to get 5 guesses right in a row either (go higher or lower on a deck of cards and you'll easily get past 5). especially when you have a 50/50 chance in the first place. interesting and entertaining? - yes. Paranormal? - no, not really.

maccored

Im sure Mani the Psychic Parrot isnt too impressed with that damn octopus getting all the limelight either. Again it just shows how this isnt *that* rare.

recedite

Yeah right, that birdbrain predicted Uruguay V Spain for the final.:D
It's getting the tip-offs from it's owner the astrologer. It just goes to show what a fraud astrology is.

Peanut

The chances of correctly predicting the outcome of 6 matches is 2 to the power of 6 or 1/64.

However, an ardent German supporter who would pick their national side each time would have got 4 matches correct anyway.

If you have accurate information on which side is stronger, and have a tendency to choose that side, then the effective odds become less than 50:50 with each choice (otherwise bookies would go out of business!).

Paul, via his guardians, claims to be an impartial punter. We don't know though, whether there is some way in which he might favour the German selection. If he has some bias towards Germany, then because they're a strong side, this reduces the effective odds with each choice.

Nevertheless, if we accept that a reasonable definition of any clairvoyant ability is one which contributes to an enhancement of luck, rather than a 100% accurate record, then we still can't make a judgement on whether this ability is real or not - there is simply not enough information available.

If we include his previous Euro 2008 predictions with the (current) World cup predictions, his success rate becomes 2^10 or 1 in 1024. This is more impressive, however, again, these are all predictions for Germany. Since we can't tell if there is some non-paranormal tendency to favour Germany, then we can't establish the real odds and have to leave it as an open question.

(Yes I have too much time on my hands! ..back to work)

recedite

Paul scores again as Germany beat Uruguay yesterday :)
You lovely octopus, you are making me rich, rich, RICH
The eight legged genius has now predicted Spain to win the final, so there is one last chance to €€€cash in with The Cunning Cephalopod.:pac:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya85knuDzp8

CorkMan

Don't any of ye know that octopuses are colour blind???

They can only differntiate the contrast of the flags, they can't see any colours. And ye do know his owners put 2 pieces of food in 2 containers when he is hungry and the box with the national flag is his prediction? Put a roast turkey into one box and a ten cents bar into the other, I think I know who he will predict.

SkepticOne

recedite wrote: »

Paul scores again as Germany beat Uruguay yesterday :)
You lovely octopus, you are making me rich, rich, RICH
The eight legged genius has now predicted Spain to win the final, so there is one last chance to €€€cash in with The Cunning Cephalopod.:pac:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya85knuDzp8

Thanks. Made a lot of money out of this also.

Sasquatch76

Screw all that... I want him as Hodgson's #2 at Liverpool.

recedite

CorkMan wrote: »

Put a roast turkey into one box and a ten cents bar into the other, I think I know who he will predict.

But they actually put identical mussels in each container.

Well, the magnificent mollusc has struck gold again, 100% correct seven times in a row and I'm off down to the bookies to cash in again. They are getting suspicious of me down there now; I think I have cleaned them out :pac:

How does Paul do it? Look at it this way. It's like a car engine; In order to use it you don't have to know how it works, just that it does work.

SkepticOne

Clearly, what is happening is that through the mechanism of quantum entanglement a morphic resonance field is set up by the ingenious invertebrate which influences the outcome of the match so that the desired team wins. The outcome is not "predicted" as such; that would be absurd.

stevedublin

can someone tell me what Paul the Octopus predicts for next Wednesdays winning lotto numbers please?

maccored

SkepticOne wrote: »

Clearly, what is happening is that through the mechanism of quantum entanglement a morphic resonance field is set up by the ingenious invertebrate which influences the outcome of the match so that the desired team wins. The outcome is not "predicted" as such; that would be absurd.

either that or he's a flukey git. The parrot has apparently took a contract out on the octopus. quantum entanglement ftw btw.

recedite

SkepticOne wrote: »

Clearly, what is happening is that through the mechanism of quantum entanglement a morphic resonance field is set up by the ingenious invertebrate which influences the outcome of the match so that the desired team wins. The outcome is not "predicted" as such; that would be absurd.

Quantum entanglement has indeed been suggested before as a basis for psychic abilities, however Paul could never admit to this as it would leave him open to allegations of match-fixing.

maccored

aww - Paul Famous OctoPus is looking for friends:

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Paul-the-Octopus/138987006118901

I still thing ye's all fell for some neatly done internet marketing.