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Questions for the long-range forecasters using cycles (Kenring, M.T,Cranium et.al.)

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  • 28-06-2010 4:11pm
    #1
    Popoutman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭


    The concept of the moon and other bodies affecting the local weather on the ground, is actually quite interesting to me. However I do have some questions, and I think I have some methods that they may be checked by.

    Regarding the moon's influence;
    Is it considered that there is a difference between full moon and new moon? Given that from a tidal point of view there is no difference between the two, why would there be a difference with meteorological predictions?

    I have my doubts (if there is a difference) that it is anything to do with reflection of the sun's radiation at full moon, given that at full moon the irradiance from the moon is about 14 (stellar) magnitudes dimmer than the Sun. 5 magnitudes == 100 times, 1 magnitude being 2.512 times different to the next, so the moon shows about 1/400,000 times less radiation than the sun.

    Have any of the periods that people are using for predictions shown up in Fourier analysis done on data that has been collected for long periods of time? If the periods are real in a statistical sense then they should show up as peaks along the transform.
    (a similar process was done for variable stars to better understand long-term patterns in semi-regular variables. See here for an abstract of work describing that.)

    It's a curiousity of mine, if the numerical analysis stands up to the hypotheses.


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    #2
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,516 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Good questions, I will return with some more detailed answers from my perspective later.

    Just as a starter, in my research I have not seen great differences in "signature" in the data studied with regard to full and new moon.

    I explained in some detail in my thread why full and new moon in Dec-Jan and June-July had stronger signals because of a blending of two different sets on different time scales in those months.

    In my case, I believe the effects are partly or perhaps largely electro-magnetic in origin rather than gravitational or anything to do with radiation (I don't take that into account at all), so this would actually open the door to finding different sets of signals because of the different orientations of new and full moon to the magnetosphere.


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